Let’s ponder for a moment what might happen to interest rates in 2026. The past 12 months have been quite an economic ride: Historic in some respects, hyberbolic in others. New York Fed President John C. Williams thinks the next 12 will provide fewer bumps on Wall Street and Main Street. “If I had to choose one word to describe 2025, it is uncertainty,’’ Williams said Dec. 15 in prepared remarks. “What’s striking is that despite all the uncertainty, the U.S. economy has shown considerable resilience and ...

美国联邦储备委员会10日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到 3.50%至3.75%之间。这是美联储今年第三次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第六次降息。 专家分析认为，受此前美国联邦政府"停摆"导致关键经济数据缺失等的影响，美联储12月的决策受到多 重困扰。 北京师范大学教授 经济学专家 万喆：这是九月重启降息周期以来的第三次连续降息，政策转向的意图 是非常明显的。12月1日起已经停止缩表，货币政策全面转向宽松。市场对降息25个基点已经有高度的 共识，真正的焦点在于会议传递的未来政策信号和内部团结度。 目前，备受关注的还有美联储的内部分歧。内部主流派认为本来这样的降息足以应对就业风险，同时能 保留政策灵活性；激进派则多次投票反对，主张更大幅度的降息，认为就业形势比官方数据更加严峻； 谨慎派则担忧降息过快可能延长通胀周期或者引发资产的泡沫。但是降息效果存在滞后性且面临全球经 济增长放缓、地缘政治风险等外部制约。 降息决策的核心矛盾还是一场"蒙眼决策"。美联储正在面临双重使命，稳定物价和实现充分就业的直接 冲突。降息理由是通胀和就业风险的显现，近期数据显示，劳动力市场出现更加明显 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points reveals internal divisions among decision-makers regarding the economic outlook and monetary policy direction [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, aligning with market expectations, but highlighted growing disagreements among its members [1]. - Board member Milan advocated for a more significant cut of 50 basis points to address potential economic downturns, while Kansas Fed President Schmidt preferred to maintain current rates [1]. Group 2: Inflation and Employment - Fed Chair Powell indicated a hawkish stance, emphasizing uncertainty about future rate cuts despite the recent decision, with the September PCE inflation rate at 2.8%, above the Fed's long-term target [3][4]. - The labor market shows signs of slowing but remains resilient, with no large-scale weakness detected, leading the Fed to adopt a cautious approach to avoid premature policy easing that could raise inflation expectations [4]. Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - Market expectations suggest that while the Fed has room for further monetary easing, the pace may slow significantly, potentially shifting from "action at every meeting" to "quarterly adjustments" [5]. - This change reflects the complexity of economic fundamentals and the Fed's intention to minimize excessive market volatility [5]. Group 4: Impact of Rate Cuts - The effectiveness of rate cuts in stimulating the economy may be limited, particularly in real estate and interest-sensitive consumer sectors, due to a weakened refinancing effect [7]. - Relying solely on interest rate tools may not achieve the desired economic boost, indicating that structural policy measures may become crucial in the future [7]. Group 5: Quantitative Tightening - The Fed plans to officially end its quantitative tightening (QT) policy on December 1, ceasing the monthly reduction of $50 billion in Treasury securities and continuing to reinvest in maturing MBS and short-term Treasury bills [8]. - This decision aims to alleviate market concerns about liquidity and marks a transition towards the normalization of monetary policy, providing more flexibility for future policy adjustments [8].

Core Viewpoint - A proposal by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan to shift the Federal Reserve's interest rate target from the federal funds rate to the tri-party general collateral rate (TGCR) is gaining attention but faces challenges as the Fed's balance sheet reduction nears completion and leadership changes are expected next year [1][2]. Group 1 - Logan's proposal suggests that the TGCR, which reflects short-term loans collateralized by bonds, is a more accurate indicator of money market conditions impacting the broader economy compared to the federal funds rate [4]. - The TGCR market sees over $1 trillion in daily volumes, significantly higher than the $100 billion in daily fed funds trading, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3]. - The Fed has been reducing liquidity for three years, and as this process continues, short-term borrowing rates may become more volatile, making the timing for a change favorable [5]. Group 2 - Influential figures in monetary policy, including former Fed staffer Ellen Meade and former New York Fed head William Dudley, have expressed support for Logan's proposal, noting its technical nature and potential merits [6]. - Despite Logan's influence, the extent of support for her idea within the Fed remains uncertain, highlighting potential headwinds to implementing the change [6].

This month, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) — a division of the Federal Reserve responsible for setting monetary policy — will meet again to evaluate the health of the economy and make key decisions regarding the federal funds rate. In September, the Fed decided to cut its benchmark rate for the first time this year. And many experts believe additional rate cuts are in store before 2025 is over. These decisions impact not only how the economy functions as a whole but also everyday consumers, as ...