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美联储政策框架巨变在即:稳通胀的优先级或将高于保就业!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-08-21 14:56
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a new monetary policy framework that adapts to the current economic conditions characterized by rising inflation and a strong labor market, with "uncertainty" being a key theme [1][2] Group 1: New Monetary Policy Framework - The new framework may emphasize that stable inflation is essential for a healthy labor market, potentially limiting previous concepts to periods of economic weakness or low inflation [1] - The current policy framework has faced criticism for its complexity, which may have delayed the Fed's response to rising inflation in 2021 [2] - The Fed's benchmark interest rate currently stands at 4.25%-4.50%, significantly higher than the near-zero levels maintained from March 2008 to September 2022 [2] Group 2: Dual Mandate Reevaluation - The challenge for the Fed is to avoid appearing to prioritize inflation control at the expense of the labor market, especially after the slow recovery from the 2007-2009 financial crisis [3] - The Fed's perspective has shifted to allow for continued employment growth without immediate inflation concerns, as evidenced by low unemployment rates without corresponding inflation increases [3] - Powell's recent statements suggest a return to the idea that price stability is a prerequisite for achieving a strong labor market, aligning with historical views from former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan [4]