中国发展网讯为及时、准确掌握元旦期间市场价格运行情况，确保节日期间市场价格基本稳定，山东省 东营市发展改革委根据上级有关要求对节日期间价格监测工作进行了安排部署，通过采取加强价格巡 查、及时发布价格走势信息等多种措施，加强对居民生活消费品价格监测工作，确保节日期间重要民生 商品和服务价格的稳定。 蔬菜价格稳中略涨。监测的15种居民常规蔬菜均价4.075元，环比5降8平2升，平均上涨0.11%；同比7降 8升，平均上涨0.07%。其中，大白菜、卷心菜、茄子价格分别为1.320元、1.880元、5.820元，环比分别 下降10.81%、8.74%、7.77%；黄瓜、生姜价格分别为4.650元、5.640元，环比分别上涨30.99%、 1.26%。 水果价格略有波动。监测的4种水果均价为5.528元，环比3平1升，平均上涨1.52%；同比3降1升，平均 上涨9.02%。 副食品类 副食品价格基本稳定。监测的10种商品环比9平1升，同比3降2平5升。其中，酱油每瓶18.230元，环比 持平，同比上涨14.65%；醋每瓶8.870元，环比持平，同比上涨37.09%；食用盐每袋1.670元，环比持 平，同比下降8.74% ...

据克通社12月23日报道，克旅游与运动部长格拉维纳及国家旅游局局长斯坦尼契奇周一宣布，2025 年克旅游业表现卓越，预计访客量将超过2,160万人次，间夜数达到1.1亿，均创下历史新高。 展望2026年，官方预测市场将维持类似规模，但强调"物价稳定"是关键。在全球旅游预算缩减、行 程缩短的趋势下，克罗地亚需通过提升服务质量来对冲价格压力。此外，2026年夏季前将出台新的《款 待业法》，严厉打击平台上的非法短租及未注册经营行为。 格拉维纳指出，今年旅游增长首次突破夏季限制，12月到访量同比增长5%，这主要得益于各地成 功的"降临节"活动。政府推行的旅游改革已显成效：通过立法限制私人住宿床位的无序增长（今年减少 约1万张），使住宿结构向可持续化转型，酒店和营地的入住率稳步提升至60%。 根据克国家银行评估，2025年外国游客为克带来的旅游收入预计将高达155亿欧元。克旅游局计划 在2026年加大数字营销力度，并参加33场国际博览会，以维持"物有所值"的市场形象。 （原标题：克罗地亚旅游业2025年创历史新高，年收入预计达155亿欧元） ...

2025年12月18日，毛里塔尼亚《消息报》报道，毛里塔尼亚中央银行货币政策委员会召开会议并发布声 明，基于通胀前景与其物价稳定目标相符的考量，维持央行基准利率不变。委员会强调，将继续密切跟 踪经济和金融形势发展，并在必要时采取一切适当措施，以保障物价稳定、增强对本币的信心及支持经 济可持续增长。会议深入研判了国际和国内经济状况及本币金融条件，重点审议了增长前景、通胀率演 变、公共财政状况、国际收支以及银行体系流动性等议题。 委员会对该国外汇市场稳定予以赞扬，认为乌吉亚汇率的受控调整，体现了以市场机制为基础的汇率制 度的有效性；同时肯定了强劲的外汇储备水平，这一成果得益于资产多元化改善和管理效率提升。此 外，会议还探讨了加强央行分析能力的问题，提出通过改进宏观经济监测工具和数据治理，为基于精准 可靠分析的决策提供支撑。 委员会指出，尽管国际环境持续不确定，毛国家经济仍展现韧性，宏观经济指标总体向好，这得益于稳 定的货币框架及不断完善的流动性管理机制。声明还提及，委员会成员讨论了货币市场最新发展，强调 2022年以来在货币政策工具现代化方面取得的进展，指出相关改革已有效增强银行间市场表现、改善货 币政策决策传导 ...

来源：金融界AI电报 美联储理事米兰：物价"再次趋于稳定"，货币政策应反映这一情况。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，一项对经济学家的最新调查显示，美联储预计将在下周再次降息，以防止劳动力市 场急剧恶化的风险上升。与此同时，受访者的预测中值显示，美联储将在下周降息后暂停行动，并在 2026年3月再次启动降息，2026年全年将进行两次各25个基点的降息。 美联储政策制定者们在其价格稳定与充分就业的双重使命的风险平衡问题上存在严重分歧。一些地区联 储主席对持续通胀表示担忧，因为关税带来的价格上涨正传导至消费端。另一些地区联储主席则认为， 仍有再次降息的空间以支持就业市场。 多数经济学家预计美联储明年降息两次 这一调查结果与利率市场对美联储降息前景的预期一致。根据芝商所的"美联储观察"工具，交易员认为 美联储在下周降息25个基点的概率达87.2%，在2026年年底前累计降息50个基点、使联邦基金利率降至 3.00%-3.25%的概率为29.3%。 | | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points reveals internal divisions among decision-makers regarding the economic outlook and monetary policy direction [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, aligning with market expectations, but highlighted growing disagreements among its members [1]. - Board member Milan advocated for a more significant cut of 50 basis points to address potential economic downturns, while Kansas Fed President Schmidt preferred to maintain current rates [1]. Group 2: Inflation and Employment - Fed Chair Powell indicated a hawkish stance, emphasizing uncertainty about future rate cuts despite the recent decision, with the September PCE inflation rate at 2.8%, above the Fed's long-term target [3][4]. - The labor market shows signs of slowing but remains resilient, with no large-scale weakness detected, leading the Fed to adopt a cautious approach to avoid premature policy easing that could raise inflation expectations [4]. Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - Market expectations suggest that while the Fed has room for further monetary easing, the pace may slow significantly, potentially shifting from "action at every meeting" to "quarterly adjustments" [5]. - This change reflects the complexity of economic fundamentals and the Fed's intention to minimize excessive market volatility [5]. Group 4: Impact of Rate Cuts - The effectiveness of rate cuts in stimulating the economy may be limited, particularly in real estate and interest-sensitive consumer sectors, due to a weakened refinancing effect [7]. - Relying solely on interest rate tools may not achieve the desired economic boost, indicating that structural policy measures may become crucial in the future [7]. Group 5: Quantitative Tightening - The Fed plans to officially end its quantitative tightening (QT) policy on December 1, ceasing the monthly reduction of $50 billion in Treasury securities and continuing to reinvest in maturing MBS and short-term Treasury bills [8]. - This decision aims to alleviate market concerns about liquidity and marks a transition towards the normalization of monetary policy, providing more flexibility for future policy adjustments [8].

Group 1 - Recent inflation data has shown a softer-than-expected trend, leading to increased expectations for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the near future [1][3][6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose less than economists forecasted, indicating that price pressures are moderating and supporting the case for rate cuts [7][6] - Economists believe that the Federal Reserve's efforts to bring inflation closer to the 2% target are making progress, providing the central bank with the necessary "breathing room" to adjust its policies [4][3] Group 2 - The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting is anticipated to result in a cut to the benchmark Federal Funds Rate, with a near-100% probability of a quarter-point cut in December [2][6] - Analysts highlight the delicate balance the Fed must maintain between achieving full employment and price stability, especially as jobless claims and hiring data have softened [4][5] - There is a consensus that cutting rates too quickly could reignite inflation, while waiting too long may further weaken the labor market [8]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech is seen as a critical moment for adjusting expectations regarding future interest rate decisions, especially after the recent policy meeting revealed significant divisions among officials about the timing and extent of potential rate cuts [2][3] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Recent Actions - In the September meeting, the Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, with only new board member Milan advocating for a 50 basis point cut [2] Diverging Opinions Among Officials - Officials are divided into two camps: one believes further rate cuts are necessary within the year, while the other thinks the current policy stance is sufficiently accommodative [2] Powell's Upcoming Speech - Powell's speech will provide insights on how the Federal Reserve plans to navigate policy without key economic data due to the government shutdown that began on October 1 [2] - The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve requires balancing "full employment" and "price stability," both of which are currently challenging due to signs of labor market cooling and persistent inflation above the 2% target [2] Market Reactions and Expectations - Market participants will closely analyze Powell's wording to gauge which aspect of the dual mandate he is more concerned about, which could influence expectations for future rate cuts [3] - Currently, there is a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates again in the October meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool [3]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr expressed concerns that further interest rate cuts could exacerbate inflation risks, indicating that the decision for a potential cut in October will be a "difficult choice" [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Monetary Policy Outlook** - Barr highlighted the need for caution regarding interest rate cuts, stating that the fear of increasing inflation is a significant reason for this caution [1] - He noted that if there were no concerns about the labor market, there would have been no need for a rate cut last month, indirectly confirming that the September rate cut decision was primarily based on a careful assessment of the employment market [1] - **Decision-Making Process** - The Federal Reserve must decide in October whether to adjust interest rates again, with Barr emphasizing that "taking very cautious actions is appropriate" [1] - He reiterated that the core mission of the Federal Reserve is to "balance various objectives," including price stability and full employment, which reflects the independence of the central bank [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint expressed by Michael Barr is the concern that further interest rate cuts may exacerbate inflation risks, making the decision for potential cuts in October a "difficult choice" [1] - Barr indicated that the decision to cut rates in September was primarily based on a cautious assessment of the labor market, suggesting that if there were no concerns about the labor market, a cut would not have been necessary [1] - He emphasized the importance of balancing various objectives, including price stability and full employment, which reflects the independence of the central bank [1] Group 2 - In terms of macroeconomic fundamentals, Barr stated that the overall household balance sheet situation is relatively good and that there is no evidence of an economic boom driven by credit [2] - He noted that the wealth effect may be contributing to consumer spending growth [2] - Regarding balance sheet operations, Barr mentioned that the progress in balance sheet normalization has been quite smooth and highlighted the importance of having effective policy rate "ceiling tools" [2]