当前经济形势与短期货币政策展望 一年前我站在这里时，美国经济正处于拐点。当时我们的政策利率已维持在5.25%-5.5%区间逾一年，这 种限制性政策立场对抑制通胀、推动总需求与总供给实现可持续平衡至关重要。彼时通胀已大幅接近目 标，劳动力市场也从此前的过热状态降温，通胀上行风险有所减弱。但失业率却上升了近1个百分点 ——从历史数据看，这种幅度的失业率上升通常只在衰退期间出现。在随后的三次联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）会议中，我们重新调整了政策立场，为过去一年劳动力市场在充分就业附近维持平衡奠定了 基础。 今年，经济面临新的挑战：对主要贸易伙伴加征的大幅关税正在重塑全球贸易体系；收紧的移民政策导 致劳动力增长突然放缓；长期来看，税收、支出与监管政策的调整也可能对经济增长与生产率产生重要 影响。这些政策最终会如何落地、对经济的长期影响将是什么，目前仍存在极大不确定性。 今年以来，美国经济在经济政策大幅调整的背景下展现出韧性。从美联储的双重使命目标（充分就业与 物价稳定）来看，劳动力市场仍接近充分就业水平，通胀虽仍略高于目标，但已较疫情后的峰值大幅回 落。与此同时，风险平衡似乎正在发生变化。 贸易与移民政策的变化正 ...

2025.08. 07 本文字数：2393，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 陈玺宇 封图 | 英国央行 当地时间7日（周四），英国央行宣布将基准利率下调25个基点至4.0%。这是英国央行本轮降息周期开启以来第五次降息，英国利率已降至两年多来 最低水平。 决议公布后，英镑对美元短线拉升约40点至1.3409，英国两年期国债收益率上涨5.5个基点至3.892%，英国富时100指数维持跌势，下跌0.71%。 此次降息符合此前金融市场预期。分析人士指出，英国央行意在应对经济放缓和就业转弱的压力，同时继续监控仍高于目标的通胀水平，在支持增长与 抑制通胀之间寻求微妙平衡。 与此同时，英国就业市场由过热转向转弱，最新季度失业率已升至4.7%，显著高于一年前约3.8%的水平。企业普遍面临需求放缓压力，最新商业调 查显示英国服务业活动放慢，而建筑业产出更是"出现五年来最大跌幅"。 同时，通胀回落趋势为放松政策提供了一定空间。英国通胀率自2022年见顶后一路下降，从2022年10月超过11%的40年高位，已大幅回落到近期约 3%~4%的水平。随着能源和食品价格涨势放缓，通胀高峰已过，这让英国央行有更多的政策空间。 尽管 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fear of returning to the "stagflation" era of the 1970s due to tariff-induced price increases is deemed incorrect by Clearwater Analytics' research head Matthew Jeffrey Vegari, as the current economic conditions do not exhibit high unemployment, a key characteristic of stagflation [1] Economic Growth and Unemployment - Although economic growth in the U.S. may face challenges in the next couple of years, the consensus indicates that high unemployment, a hallmark of stagflation, is currently absent [1] - The Federal Reserve's ability to cool down an overheating economy without triggering a recession is praised, suggesting effective monetary policy [1] Future Inflation and Employment Trends - There may be a future period where inflation and unemployment rise simultaneously, but it is asserted that the current Federal Reserve will prevent a situation as severe as that of the 1970s, and high inflation is not expected to persist [1]

印度央行行长：我们不会放松对通胀的警惕，首要任务是保持物价稳定。 ...

菲律宾央行：将通过确保货币政策有利于可持续经济增长和就业来维护物价稳定。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the potential impact of proposed tariffs by the Trump administration on inflation and economic stability, as articulated by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell during a Senate hearing [2] - Powell indicated that while tariffs might cause a one-time increase in prices, the long-term inflation risks should not be overlooked, emphasizing the need for the Federal Reserve to adopt a cautious approach to maintain price stability and economic health [2] - The actual impact of tariffs on prices could exceed expectations, depending on the scale, implementation, and market reactions, suggesting that the Federal Reserve must manage these risks carefully [2] Group 2 - In the gold market, prices showed narrow fluctuations, with the current price at $3331.27 per ounce, reflecting a slight decline of 0.02% [1] - The gold price opened at $3332.09 per ounce, reaching a high of $3339.76 and a low of $3328.99 during the trading session [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is likely to face resistance below $3342.00 and support above $3311.00, with potential targets for downward movement set between $3316.00 and $3301.00 [3]

Group 1 - The UK inflation rate remains at its highest level in over a year, with persistent price pressures causing concern [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate fell from a revised 3.5% in April to 3.4% in May, slightly exceeding economists' expectations of 3.3% [1] - The core inflation rate in the services sector decreased from 5.4% to 4.7%, yet it remains within a historically high range [1] Group 2 - The UK Office for National Statistics acknowledged a data error regarding vehicle consumption tax, correcting April's inflation rate to 3.4% instead of the previously reported 3.5% [1] - The May price trends exhibited structural differentiation, with falling costs for airfares and fuel being offset by rising food prices, particularly for chocolate and meat, as well as furniture and household goods [1] - Financial markets reacted sensitively to the inflation data, with the British pound rising 0.3% to a session high of 1.3462 USD [2] Group 3 - Market pricing indicates that investors still expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 25 basis points within the year, although there is disagreement on the timing [2] - The decision-making process faces multiple challenges, including signs of economic slowdown and a cooling labor market, alongside unexpectedly sticky service sector inflation [2] - Despite widespread expectations that the Bank of England will maintain interest rates at the upcoming meeting on June 19, there remains uncertainty about the initiation of a loosening cycle in August [2]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year in May, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6%, indicating a stable core price trend [1][2] - Energy prices were the main factor for the CPI decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.7%, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the overall CPI drop [2] - The increase in core CPI and industrial consumer goods prices, along with rising prices for gold jewelry, household textiles, and durable goods, reflects positive changes in certain sectors [2][3] Group 2 - Hotel accommodation and tourism prices rose by 4.6% and 0.8% month-on-month in May, respectively, with hotel prices reaching a near ten-year high [4] - The "May Day" holiday saw 314 million domestic trips, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with total spending reaching 180.27 billion yuan, up 8.0% [6] - The tourism sector is becoming a significant growth area for consumer spending, supported by improved visa and travel policies, leading to a 130% year-on-year increase in inbound travel orders during the holiday [6][8] Group 3 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a widening year-on-year decline, but marginal changes indicate improvements in supply-demand relationships in certain industries [9] - Consumer demand is shifting towards quality over price, with increased demand for high-end and energy-efficient products, driving price improvements in related sectors [10][12] - The manufacturing prices for high-end equipment and technology products, such as aircraft and semiconductor devices, have shown year-on-year increases, reflecting a trend towards high-end, intelligent, and green development in industries [12]

Core Insights - The overall price performance in May aligns with market expectations, with CPI showing "strong food, weak energy, and stable core" while PPI reflects "weak production materials and stable living materials" [1][2] CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, maintaining this level for three consecutive months, and fell by 0.2% month-on-month, consistent with seasonal trends [1] - Food prices decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, which is less than the seasonal decline of 1.1 percentage points, driven by increased seasonal vegetable supply and a 5.9% drop in fresh vegetable prices [1] - Energy prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month, weaker than seasonal expectations, influenced by a decline in international crude oil prices [1] PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year and by 0.4% month-on-month, with the decline in production materials being the main factor affecting PPI [2][3] - Production materials saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%, which is weaker than seasonal expectations, while living materials remained stable [2] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Total demand remains insufficient, with external demand facing challenges as exports fell by 4.8% year-on-year in May, down from 8.1% the previous month [3][4] - Internal demand is also weak, as durable goods demand has not rebounded, and rental prices have shown weakness, indicating overall consumer demand remains low [4] Competitive Landscape - Certain industries are experiencing oversupply and "involution" competition, which exacerbates downward pressure on PPI [5] - The need for price recovery requires simultaneous efforts on both supply and demand sides, including more proactive macro policies and addressing competitive pressures in the market [5]

Group 1 - The overall consumer price index (CPI) showed a slight decline in May, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, influenced by seasonal factors and falling oil prices [1][2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a strengthening demand in certain sectors, supported by holiday consumption and a recovery in travel services [2][3] - Energy prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the overall CPI decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% [1][2] Group 2 - Food prices decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with fresh vegetable prices dropping by 5.9%, while some fresh fruits and fish saw price increases due to supply constraints [2][3] - The producer price index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, but some sectors showed positive price trends, particularly in consumer goods [3][4] - Prices in high-tech industries, such as integrated circuits and wearable devices, increased year-on-year, reflecting a shift towards high-end, intelligent, and green production [4][5] Group 3 - The demand for high-tech products is growing, leading to price increases in related industries, while the prices in the solar and lithium battery sectors showed a narrowing decline [5] - The positive impact of macroeconomic policies is expected to further stimulate domestic demand and promote reasonable price recovery in the future [5]