Meituan (3690.HK): NDR highlights: Sustaining food delivery scale leadership and unit economics advantage; Buy We hosted Meituan's Capital Markets team with investors on Mar 30th post its 4Q25 results. Investors' key focuses centered around latest food delivery competitive landscape and longer-term unit economics outlook, in-store competition & margin trajectory, Instashopping's growth and margin outlook, investment scale for overseas expansion (Keeta) and other grocery new initiatives (e.g. Ella/Xiaoxiang ...

Core Insights - The RiverPark Large Growth Fund reported a modest gain of 1.4% in Q4 2025, underperforming the S&P 500 and Russell 1000 Growth indexes, which returned 2.6% and 1.1% respectively [1] - For the full year, the Fund's performance was up 13.3%, compared to 17.4% and 18.6% gains for the indexes, indicating a challenging market environment [1] - The Fund remains optimistic about its portfolio, which consists of attractively valued companies benefiting from strong growth trends and expected significant cash flow generation [1] Company Analysis: Uber Technologies, Inc. - Uber Technologies, Inc. had a market capitalization of $145.2 billion, with its stock closing at $70.55 per share on March 26, 2026 [2] - The company experienced a one-month return of -6.46% and a 52-week loss of 3.02%, indicating recent market challenges [2] - In Q4 2025, Uber was a detractor for the Fund despite strong operating performance, as its third-quarter earnings report did not elicit a strong market reaction [3] - Gross Bookings and adjusted EBITDA were near the high end of management's guidance, driven by a 22% year-over-year growth in total trips and a record 189 million Monthly Active Platform Consumers, up 17% year-over-year [3] - Investor sentiment was negatively impacted by concerns over reduced margin expansion due to increased investments in growth initiatives, including autonomous vehicle partnerships and platform innovation [4] - The success of Tesla's robotaxi testing program raised concerns about potential disruption to Uber's core ride-hailing business, affecting near-term sentiment [4] - Despite these challenges, Uber is viewed as a leading global platform benefiting from trends in on-demand transportation and delivery, with expectations for long-term volume and revenue growth as the robotaxi ecosystem expands [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Meituan, with a target price of HK$141.10, reflecting a potential upside of 62.7% from the current price of HK$86.70 [3][10]. Core Insights - Meituan's 4Q25 results showed revenue of RMB92.1 billion, a 4.1% year-over-year increase, aligning with Bloomberg consensus. The adjusted net loss was RMB15.1 billion, at the lower end of the previously guided range [1]. - The Core Local Commerce (CLC) business is believed to be bottoming out, supported by regulatory guidance promoting healthier development in the food delivery sector and a focus on core competencies by in-store players [1]. - The report anticipates a further narrowing of CLC operating losses by 58% quarter-over-quarter in 1Q26 to RMB4.2 billion, following a 29% reduction in 4Q25 [1]. - Revenue from new initiatives reached RMB27.3 billion in 4Q25, up 18.9% year-over-year, indicating an acceleration in growth supported by business expansion [7]. - The forecast for CLC revenue in 1Q26 is RMB64.2 billion, flat year-over-year, with expectations of a 9% increase in in-store and a 25% increase in Instashopping businesses, despite a 9% decline in food delivery [7]. Financial Summary - For FY24A, FY25A, FY26E, FY27E, and FY28E, revenue is projected to be RMB337,592 million, RMB365,982 million, RMB408,564 million, RMB464,754 million, and RMB517,386 million respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 22.0%, 8.4%, 11.6%, 13.8%, and 11.3% [2]. - The adjusted net profit for FY24A is expected to be RMB43,772.4 million, with losses of RMB18,648.0 million in FY25A and RMB4,703.1 million in FY26E, before recovering to RMB33,682.8 million in FY27E and RMB48,726.3 million in FY28E [2]. - The report revises the revenue forecast for 2026E down by 3% to reflect a strategic shift towards higher-quality growth in the food delivery business, while also reducing operating loss and non-IFRS net loss forecasts by 32% and 51% respectively [9].

Summary of JD, JD Logistics & Jingdong Industrials 4Q/FY25 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Companies Involved**: JD.com, JD Logistics, Jingdong Industrials - **Period Covered**: 4Q/FY25 Key Financial Highlights - **JD Group Revenue**: Reported at Rmb352.3 billion, reflecting a 2% year-over-year growth, slightly above consensus estimates by 1% [2] - **JD Retail Revenue**: Declined by 2% year-over-year in 4Q25, attributed to a high base from the trade-in program, but offset by strong growth in general merchandise (+12% year-over-year) and advertising revenues (+15% year-over-year) [2][3] - **JD Retail Operating Profit**: Achieved Rmb51.4 billion, a 25% increase year-over-year, with an operating margin of 4.6% [8][19] - **JD Logistics Revenue**: Reached Rmb63.5 billion, a 22% year-over-year increase, with an EBIT margin of 3.2% [19] - **Jingdong Industrials Revenue**: Reported Rmb13.7 billion in 2H25, a 16% year-over-year increase, with an EBIT margin of 3.8% [23] Core Insights and Outlook 1. **JD Retail Growth Outlook**: Expected mid-single-digit revenue growth for FY26, with electronics and appliances growth remaining subdued in the first half of 2026 due to high base effects [3][7] 2. **Profit Margin Stability**: JD Retail anticipates stable operating margins in FY26, with potential for long-term margin expansion through improved procurement and operational efficiencies [8] 3. **Investment Focus**: - **Food Delivery**: Losses reduced by 20% quarter-over-quarter, with expectations for further narrowing in FY26 [9] - **International Business**: Increased investment in JoyBuy, with positive user feedback [9] - **Jingxi**: Focus on white-label products in lower-tier markets, with slight increases in investment expected [9] 4. **AI and Automation**: Significant deployment of AI technologies in operations, enhancing customer service and operational efficiency [10] 5. **Shareholder Returns**: Total shareholder returns exceeded 10% in FY25, with a US$1 per ADS dividend and US$3 billion in share repurchases [11] Additional Noteworthy Points - **Customer Base**: Annual active customers exceeded 730 million, with JD Plus users surpassing 40 million, indicating strong customer engagement [7] - **General Merchandise Growth**: Sustained double-digit growth in general merchandise, driven by healthcare and fashion verticals [7] - **Logistics Performance**: JD Logistics' internal revenue grew significantly, driven by on-demand delivery services [19] - **Jingdong Industrials Performance**: Despite a strong revenue increase, EBIT margin fell short of expectations due to investments in overseas business and private label initiatives [23] Risks and Considerations - **Competitive Landscape**: Potential risks include tougher competition in China's eCommerce market and execution challenges in general merchandise and food delivery [15][20][24] - **Dependence on JD Group**: JD Industrials faces risks related to its reliance on JD Group's support and supplier relationships [24] This summary encapsulates the key financial metrics, strategic insights, and outlook for JD.com, JD Logistics, and Jingdong Industrials, providing a comprehensive overview of their performance and future direction.

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating for JD.com, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [19]. Core Insights - JD.com reported 4Q25 results with revenue of RMB352.3 billion, reflecting a 1.5% year-over-year increase, which was 1% above forecasts [1]. - Non-GAAP net profit was RMB1.1 billion, down 90% year-over-year, primarily due to investments in food delivery and a high base effect, but still exceeded forecasts [1]. - The operating loss for new businesses in 4Q25 was RMB14.8 billion, slightly higher than estimates, but a 20% quarter-over-quarter decrease in operating loss from the food delivery business was in line with expectations [1]. - Revenue and non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2026-27 have been raised by 3% and 1-6% respectively, driven by better-than-expected growth in electronics and home appliances [1]. - The target price has been lifted by 2% to US$47.5, supported by improved visibility on group-level earnings growth and shareholder returns [1][13]. Financial Performance - JD.com achieved a revenue of RMB1,309.1 billion in FY25, with a year-over-year growth of 13% [9]. - For FY26, revenue is projected to reach RMB1,402.3 billion, representing a 7.1% growth [11]. - The adjusted net profit for FY26 is estimated at RMB29.1 billion, with a non-GAAP net margin of 2.1% [11]. - The company plans to narrow the operating loss from the food delivery business in 2026, targeting improvements in unit economics and operational efficiency [8]. Shareholder Returns - In 2025, JD.com repurchased approximately 91.6 million ADSs for about US$3.0 billion, representing around 6.3% of outstanding ADSs [8]. - An annual cash dividend of US$1.0 per ADS for 2025 was announced, totaling approximately US$1.4 billion [8]. Market Data - JD.com has a market capitalization of approximately US$37.9 billion and a current stock price of US$25.47, indicating an upside potential of 86.5% to the target price [2][3]. - The stock has experienced a decline of 19% over the past six months [5]. Business Segments - JD Retail reported revenue of RMB301.9 billion in 4Q25, down 1.7% year-over-year, but still better than consensus estimates [8]. - General merchandise revenue increased by 12.1% year-over-year in 4Q25, while electronics and home appliances revenue decreased by 12% [8]. - The marketplace and advertising revenue rose by 15% year-over-year in 4Q25, driven by balanced growth in advertising and commission revenue [8]. Valuation - The DCF-based target price of US$47.5 is derived from a WACC of 11.8% and a terminal growth rate of 1.0% [13]. - The report indicates a P/E ratio of 10.4x for FY26, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to historical performance [16].

Core Viewpoint - Uber Technologies, Inc. has announced an agreement to acquire Getir's delivery portfolio in Türkiye, which includes food, grocery, retail, and water delivery services, pending regulatory approval and other closing conditions [1] Group 1: Company Strategy - This acquisition marks a significant step in Uber's ongoing investment in Türkiye, indicating a strategic move to enhance its delivery services in the region [1] - The integration of Getir and Trendyol Go delivery services into Uber's operations demonstrates the company's commitment to expanding its market presence in Türkiye [1] Group 2: Market Impact - The deal is expected to strengthen Uber's position in the competitive delivery market in Türkiye, potentially increasing its customer base and service offerings [1] - By consolidating delivery services under its brand, Uber aims to improve operational efficiencies and customer experience in the region [1]

Fourth quarter results out from Uber. Want to tell you what's going on here. Company reporting earnings of 71 cents a share.Revenue coming in at 14.37% billion. Now that's slightly ahead of expectations. Adjusted Eva dots toting about $2.5% billion.That's also above estimates. On the segment side, mobility revenue coming in below forecast though, while delivery sales topped consensus. gross bookings for the quarter reaching $54.1% billion versus estimates of $53.1% billion. Looking ahead in terms of where t ...

Most people pick up a side hustle in hopes of earning some extra cash, but they want it to be worth their time. After all, a side hustle is something you do on the side after your main job. To help narrow down the options, I asked ChatGPT which side hustles are not worth the effort in 2026. These five came up as the least likely to pay off. Rideshare Driving Rideshare driving is easy to start, but the operating costs are a problem, ChatGPT said. Drivers pay for fuel, maintenance, depreciation, insuran ...

Core Insights - Uber Technologies, Inc. is recognized as a high growth technology stock, achieving its first annual operating profit in 2023 [4] - BofA Securities analyst Justin Post has reduced Uber's price target to $93 from $96, citing uncertainties surrounding autonomous vehicles as a near-term concern [2] - Uber has established AV Labs to enhance the development of autonomous vehicles by utilizing real-world data to improve training for autonomous systems [3] Group 1: Financial Performance - Uber achieved its first annual operating profit in 2023, indicating a significant milestone in its financial performance [4] - The company is expected to see steady revenue growth and improved margins by 2025, which could support valuation expansion in the long term [2] Group 2: Autonomous Vehicle Development - The creation of AV Labs aims to address challenges in autonomous vehicle development by generating superior training data from real-world driving scenarios [3] - AV Labs is focused on transforming complex driving situations into valuable data to enhance the learning process for autonomous systems [3] Group 3: Market Position and Analyst Sentiment - Despite the potential of Uber as an investment, some analysts suggest that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential with less downside risk [5] - The uncertainties regarding autonomous vehicles are viewed as a significant factor affecting Uber's current valuation [2]

And a good Friday morning to you. We're following some breaking news. >> A major change in the works at the Federal Reserve.It is January 30th. This is today. Breaking news.President Trump tapping his replacement for Chairman Jerome Powell at the Fed just moments ago. A former member of the board, Kevin Worsh. What the White House is saying about his pick and the potential impact on what you pay.Here it comes. Another major storm taking aim at millions this weekend. Parts of the south still coping with ice ...