Grocery Stocks Fall on Amazon’s Food Delivery Expansion. Hear about it on the Bloomberg Stock Movers report. https://t.co/TJN0kjzqgF ...

Industry Trend - Restaurants are adopting robots and drones to improve the speed and quality of food deliveries [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Meituan with a 12-month price target of HK$172, indicating an upside potential of 30.9% from the current price of HK$131.40 [13]. Core Insights - Meituan is focused on defending its leadership in the food delivery market while expanding its Instashopping and Keeta initiatives internationally. The company anticipates a stabilization in the competitive landscape as subsidy levels rationalize over time [7][11]. - The report forecasts a 9% growth in order volume for Q2 2025 and an 8% growth for FY 2025, driven by industry-wide subsidies, although it expects a significant decline in food delivery EBIT due to increased user subsidies [7]. - Instashopping is projected to achieve a 27% growth in order volume for Q2 2025, with a long-term outlook of becoming a key driver for on-demand growth and local commerce profits [7]. - Keeta's expansion is gaining momentum, particularly in Saudi Arabia, with plans to enter Brazil contingent on infrastructure development. The report anticipates losses for Keeta but improving unit economics [7][11]. Summary by Sections Food Delivery Market - Meituan aims to maintain its GTV market share leadership by focusing on core user retention and diverse meal offerings. The company expects a 33% decline in food delivery EBIT for 2025 due to increased subsidies [7]. - The average daily order volume for food delivery is projected to grow from 70 million in 2024 to 77 million in 2025, with a slight decline in average order value [10]. Instashopping Growth - Instashopping is expected to see strong growth, with a projected GTV of Rmb 344 billion by 2025, reflecting a 24% year-on-year increase. The average daily order volume is anticipated to rise to 12.1 million [10]. - The report highlights that Instashopping's profitability is improving, with a small operating loss expected in Q2 2025 due to investments in marketing for shopping festivals [7]. Keeta Expansion - Keeta is experiencing strong growth in Saudi Arabia, with future expansion into Brazil dependent on infrastructure readiness. The report forecasts a loss of Rmb 10.4 billion for FY 2025 primarily due to Keeta's increased losses [7][11]. Financial Projections - Group revenue is projected to grow from Rmb 337.6 billion in 2024 to Rmb 382.5 billion in 2025, with a gross profit margin expected to stabilize around 38.4% [10]. - The report estimates adjusted EBIT for 2025 to be Rmb 30.5 billion, reflecting a decline from the previous year due to increased investments and subsidies [10].

Core Insights - Meituan reported 1Q25 revenue of RMB86.6 billion, an 18% year-over-year increase, exceeding both internal forecasts and Bloomberg consensus estimates by 1% [1] - Adjusted net profit reached RMB10.9 billion, up 46% year-over-year, and was 12-13% higher than forecasts [1] - The core local commerce (CLC) segment generated RMB64.3 billion in revenue and RMB13.5 billion in operating profit, reflecting 18% and 39% year-over-year growth, respectively [2] Financial Performance - The operating profit for the CLC segment was 10% better than consensus estimates, primarily driven by the food delivery (FD) business due to user subsidy optimization [1] - Revenue from new initiatives was RMB22.2 billion, up 19% year-over-year, with an operating loss of RMB2.3 billion, which narrowed from RMB2.8 billion in 1Q24 [3] - The company expects solid revenue and earnings growth in the in-store hotel & travel (ISHT) segment to mitigate investment impacts in the short term [2] Strategic Initiatives - Meituan is actively responding to increasing competition in the food delivery and instant retail markets, aiming to maintain market share [2] - The company is committed to investing in international expansion to drive long-term revenue and earnings growth [1] - For 2Q25, revenue for new initiatives is estimated to grow by 21.5% year-over-year, driven by grocery retail and overseas FD business [3] Forecast Adjustments - Revenue and adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been lowered by 1-2% and 11-21%, respectively, to account for additional investments in the FD business and overseas expansion [1] - The DCF-based target price was reduced by 9% to HK$181.6, translating into a 25x 2025E adjusted PE [1]

Core Insights - Uber Technologies reported revenue of $11.53 billion for Q1 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 13.8% and an EPS of $0.83, a significant improvement from -$0.32 in the same quarter last year [1] - The revenue fell slightly short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $11.6 billion, resulting in a surprise of -0.61%, while the EPS exceeded expectations by 62.75% compared to the consensus estimate of $0.51 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Gross Bookings totaled $42.82 billion, slightly below the 12-analyst average estimate of $42.87 billion [4] - Mobility Gross Bookings were $21.18 billion, compared to the nine-analyst average estimate of $21.49 billion [4] - Delivery Gross Bookings reached $20.38 billion, slightly above the nine-analyst average estimate of $20.28 billion [4] - Monthly Active Platform Consumers (MAPCs) stood at 170, surpassing the average estimate of 168 [4] - Freight Gross Bookings were $1.26 billion, below the eight-analyst average estimate of $1.30 billion [4] - Total trips amounted to 3,036, exceeding the average estimate of 3,014 [4] Revenue Breakdown - Mobility revenue was reported at $6.50 billion, slightly below the eight-analyst average estimate of $6.55 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 15.3% [4] - Freight revenue was $1.26 billion, slightly below the eight-analyst average estimate of $1.30 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 1.9% [4] - Delivery revenue matched the eight-analyst average estimate of $3.78 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 17.5% [4] Adjusted EBITDA - Adjusted EBITDA for Mobility was $1.75 billion, slightly below the estimated $1.77 billion [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for Corporate G&A and Platform R&D was reported at -$641 million, better than the estimated -$648.11 million [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for Delivery reached $763 million, exceeding the average estimate of $733.18 million [4] Stock Performance - Uber's shares have returned +31.9% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +10.6% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]