Core Viewpoint - Synopsys (SNPS) stock has experienced a significant decline of 25.3% over the past three months, underperforming the Zacks Computer - Software industry, which returned 1.4% during the same period. This raises questions about whether investors should hold or exit the stock [1][8]. Group 1: Growth Prospects - Synopsys is focusing on AI-driven electronic design automation (EDA) tools, such as Synopsys.ai and Fusion Compiler, which are being rapidly adopted by customers, leading to substantial productivity gains [4]. - The company is expanding into the AI cluster interconnect market with new products like Ultra Accelerator Link and Ultra Ethernet IP solutions, benefiting from the projected growth of the Data Center Interconnect market, expected to reach $25.89 billion by 2030, with an 11% CAGR from 2025 to 2030 [5]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Synopsys' fiscal 2025 revenues is $7.05 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 12.5% [9]. Group 2: Market Challenges - Synopsys faces significant competition from companies like Broadcom and Marvell Technology, as well as EDA vendors such as Cadence Design Systems and Siemens, which are challenging its market position [10][12][13]. - The Design IP business of Synopsys has declined by 8% year-over-year due to delays from foundry customers and internal resource allocation issues, leading to a muted outlook for fiscal 2026 [17]. - Operating margins are under pressure due to weakness in the Design IP business and geopolitical risks, particularly in China, which are affecting the business outlook [18]. Group 3: Valuation Concerns - Synopsys is currently trading at a premium valuation, with a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 8.83X, higher than the industry average of 8.54X, contributing to a Zacks Value Score of F [20]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 earnings is $12.8 billion, indicating a year-over-year decline of 2.8% [14]. Group 4: Conclusion - Given the combination of high valuation, declining margins, increasing competition, and challenges in the Design IP business, it is suggested that investors consider selling SNPS stock [21].

Core Insights - Synopsys' AI-driven electronic design automation (EDA) tools are experiencing rapid adoption, leading to significant productivity gains for customers [1] - The company has established strong partnerships with various firms, including Advanced Micro Devices and Toshiba, indicating its growing influence in the EDA market [1] - Synopsys' software-based verification tools are increasingly utilized by both traditional semiconductor and emerging system companies, driven by the need for precise verification in advanced nodes [2] Company Developments - The implementation of the ZeBu Server 4 design emulation system by AI-chip developers is enhancing System-on-Chip (SoC) verification processes [3] - Synopsys has expanded its capabilities in the SoC verification and IP space through the acquisition of Intrinsic ID, which enhances security by generating unique identifiers for SoCs [4] - Recent acquisitions, including ANSYS, are expected to create synergies that strengthen Synopsys' EDA offerings [3][4] Competitive Landscape - Synopsys faces competition from EDA vendors like Cadence Design Systems and Siemens, which offer similar tools and services for chip design [5][6] - These competitors focus on different phases of the integrated circuit (IC) design process, potentially increasing competition and impacting Synopsys' pricing and profit margins [6] Financial Performance - Synopsys shares have declined by 8.5% year-to-date, contrasting with a 19.8% growth in the Computer - Software industry [7] - The company's forward price-to-sales ratio stands at 8.58X, slightly above the industry average of 8.55X [9] - Earnings estimates for fiscal 2025 indicate a year-over-year decline of 2.8%, while estimates for 2026 suggest a growth of 9.5% [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent export controls imposed by the U.S. government on the EDA industry have significant implications for Synopsys Inc., particularly affecting its operations and revenue in China, which previously experienced a growth rate of approximately 25% but has now seen a decline of 28% in the most recent quarter [4][9]. Group 1: Impact of Export Controls - The U.S. Department of Commerce issued a "stop and notify" letter to Synopsys, requiring the company to cease sales and shipments of software, hardware, and chips to China, with existing customer software licenses expiring within 355 days [2][6]. - The export controls have been described as unusual due to the lack of a customary consultation period, which typically ranges from 4 to 12 weeks, leaving companies to react post-factum [3][4]. - The export restrictions have led to a significant operational challenge, as existing customers can use their software until their licenses expire, but will not receive any updates or support during that time [6][23]. Group 2: Industry Response and Collaboration - The EDA industry has shown rare unity in response to the government regulations, with legal and government relations teams from various companies collaborating to navigate the complexities of the new rules [3][4]. - The historical context of U.S. restrictions on technology exports has evolved from targeting specific companies to broader technology restrictions, impacting advanced nodes crucial for AI and high-performance computing [4][17]. Group 3: Financial Implications and Market Dynamics - The revenue structure of Synopsys is heavily reliant on advanced nodes, which are more profitable compared to older technology nodes, making the impact of the export controls particularly severe [4][5]. - Despite the challenges, the company is exploring opportunities in automotive, IoT, and industrial applications, although these markets do not match the revenue potential of the AI sector [5][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding the export controls has raised questions about the future of Synopsys's planned acquisition of Ansys, as the company aims to maintain access to the Chinese market, which is critical for growth [9][20]. Group 4: Operational Challenges - The company faces difficulties in adjusting operational expenditures in response to declining revenues, as fixed costs related to R&D and core tool development remain unchanged despite reduced sales [6][22]. - The ambiguity of the export controls has led to numerous unresolved questions regarding their scope and applicability, complicating compliance efforts [6][25]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The company is actively seeking clarification from the U.S. government regarding the specifics of the export controls, including whether they apply to subsidiaries of Chinese companies located in other countries [6][25]. - The potential for a resolution through trade negotiations remains a possibility, with the company expressing a desire to retain access to the growing Chinese market [9][20].

Synopsys (SNPS) Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Synopsys (SNPS) - **Date of Conference**: June 04, 2025 Key Points Industry Context - The discussion revolves around the Electronic Design Automation (EDA) industry and its current challenges, particularly regarding regulatory restrictions impacting sales to China [4][10][14]. Recent Developments - Synopsys received a notification from the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) regarding regulatory restrictions on selling certain products to China, leading to a halt in shipments [9][10]. - The company had to pull its guidance due to the potential material impact of these restrictions on its business [10][11]. Financial Performance - In the most recent quarter, Synopsys experienced a **28% year-over-year decline** in revenue from China, a significant drop from a previous growth rate of **25%** [16][17]. - The company is currently assessing the impact of these restrictions on its overall revenue and operational expenditures [29]. Regulatory Environment - The regulatory restrictions are seen as atypical due to the lack of a comment period, which is usually provided to understand the intent and implications of such regulations [19][28]. - Synopsys is working with legal teams and government relations to clarify what products can still be sold and to ensure compliance with the new regulations [12][39]. Market Dynamics - The EDA industry is experiencing a shift as the market for AI and high-performance computing (HPC) chips in China has contracted due to these restrictions [21][22]. - Synopsys is pivoting towards automotive, IoT, and industrial markets, which are growing but do not match the revenue potential of the AI market [21][22]. AI Integration - Synopsys has been integrating AI into its products, with significant improvements in efficiency for junior and mid-level engineers, achieving up to **40% efficiency gains** [44][45]. - The company is developing a new product, AgenTic, which aims to automate design engineering workloads, although it is still a few years away from full deployment [46][48]. Customer Relationships - Synopsys maintains strong relationships with key customers, including Intel, despite leadership changes at Intel [55][56]. - The company is optimistic about the potential for increased spending from Intel as they focus on building leadership products [60]. Competitive Landscape - There is a notable difference in trading multiples between Synopsys and its competitor Cadence, attributed to historical profit margins and the ongoing acquisition of ANSYS [66][67]. - Synopsys aims to improve its operating margins, targeting mid-forties post-ANSYS acquisition, which would position it competitively within the industry [66][67]. Future Outlook - The company is cautiously optimistic about resolving regulatory issues and restoring its ability to sell in China, which was previously a significant growth market [26][54]. - Synopsys is focused on maintaining operational efficiency and exploring new revenue opportunities while navigating the current regulatory landscape [30][29]. Additional Insights - The conversation highlighted the importance of collaboration within the industry to address regulatory challenges, as companies like Synopsys and its peers work together to navigate these complexities [12][13]. - The potential for AI to transform the EDA industry is significant, but the company acknowledges the need for careful implementation due to the high stakes involved in design engineering [47][49].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported Q1 revenue of $1.46 billion, down 4% year-over-year, and non-GAAP EPS of $3.03, down 10% due to one less work week compared to Q1 '24 [6][32] - Non-GAAP operating margin was 36.5%, with total GAAP costs and expenses at $1.2 billion [32] - For fiscal year 2025, the revenue guidance is set between $6.745 billion and $6.05 billion, with non-GAAP EPS guidance of $14.88 to $14.96 per share [33][36] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Design Automation revenue increased by 4% year-over-year, despite one less week of revenue [11] - The company launched new HAPS 200 prototyping systems and ZeBu 200 emulation systems, enhancing performance significantly [12] - Design IP revenue decreased by 17% year-over-year, but opportunities are expanding due to AI customer needs [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - AI and HPC markets remained robust, while industrial, automotive, and consumer electronics faced challenges [7] - China sales showed a deceleration trend, with expectations of continued decline below corporate average due to restrictions and economic slowdown [50][76] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on AI-driven design solutions and is progressing with the acquisition of ANSYS to enhance its offerings [9] - The strategy emphasizes addressing design complexity and energy demands through innovative solutions [8] - The company aims to leverage AI capabilities to transform engineering workflows and improve productivity [18][108] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's resilient business model and strong momentum driven by AI growth [29] - The outlook for semiconductor R&D investment is positive, expected to grow from 6% to 9% of sales per year [41] - Management acknowledged challenges in the consumer electronics and automotive sectors but noted a recent acceleration in design activity [44][58] Other Important Information - The backlog exiting Q1 was reported at $7.7 billion [67] - Cash flow from operations was approximately $1.8 billion, with free cash flow around $1.6 billion [34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Growth trends in AI and non-AI segments - Management noted a bifurcation in the semiconductor market, with strong demand in AI and HPC, while consumer electronics and automotive are slower [39][41] Question: Sales performance in China - Management indicated that sales in China are expected to continue decelerating due to restrictions and economic factors [50][76] Question: Design activity for non-AI customers - Management observed a stabilization in design activity for non-AI customers, particularly in mobile and PC sectors [58] Question: Cost control and guidance for next quarter - Management highlighted that Q1 costs were lower than anticipated due to timing, but Q2 typically sees a step-up due to merit increases [112][115] Question: Backlog composition and customer engagement - Management confirmed no significant change in customer behavior regarding backlog duration, maintaining consistent contract durations [81][82]