智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，AI对光纤光缆需求深刻重塑，推动行业供需关系走向新周期，行 业有望在未来两年内出现供不应求。供给趋紧已然带来产品涨价的现象——据调研，G.652.D散纤价格 较2025年初回升20%以上，虽该型号更多用于电信市场，但该行认为其涨价的核心原因之一是AI拉动的 多模光纤、G.657.A、G.654.E等型号挤占产能，导致传统品类供应也趋紧。如果供需关系进一步转为供 不应求，涨价趋势有望延续，在位厂商或迎来量价齐升。 中金主要观点如下： 2027年AI需求有望占光纤光缆下游35% AI推动数据中心建设蓬勃发展，二级市场过去对数据中心里各类硬件进行了深度的价值挖掘。而其中 光纤光缆行业由于传统电信需求占比较高(约九成)、且电信需求景气度低，得到的关注度有限。该行注 意到，随着AI需求在快车道上持续跃升，其在光纤光缆下游的占比正迎来明显提升，该行测算AI有望 推动数据中心内部&DCI两大场景下的光纤光缆需求，从2024年占比不到5%、提升至2027年的35%，带 动全球光纤需求攀升至2027年的8.8亿芯公里。 供需拐点将至 而在供给端，受到2019-2020年连续两次中国移动普缆集 ...

Core Viewpoint - The AI is profoundly reshaping the demand for optical fibers and cables, pushing the industry supply-demand relationship into a new cycle, with a potential supply shortage expected in the next two years [2][34]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The tightening supply has already led to price increases, with G.652.D fiber prices rising over 20% since early 2025, driven by AI demand for various fiber types that are occupying production capacity [2][6]. - Global demand and capacity have regional mobility, meaning that as overseas manufacturers supply North America, non-North American markets will also face supply shortages, with leading domestic companies having an export ratio of 30-50% [2][34]. - The global optical fiber demand is projected to reach 880 million core kilometers by 2027, with AI expected to account for 35% of the downstream demand for optical fibers and cables [4][34]. Market Trends - The optical fiber market is expected to stabilize and recover, driven by the demand from data centers and DCI (Data Center Interconnect) applications, with the market for AI-driven optical fibers projected to reach $2.1 billion by 2027, growing at a CAGR of approximately 73% from 2024 to 2027 [12][34]. - The supply side is characterized by a cautious expansion attitude among manufacturers, with current global optical fiber production capacity estimated at around 850 million core kilometers, which may fall short of annual demand [35][36]. Emerging Fiber Types - New types of optical fibers, such as G.654.E and hollow-core fibers, are expected to see rapid growth due to their advantages in low latency and long-distance transmission, making them suitable for DCI applications [20][29]. - Specialty fibers are gaining traction as AI-driven computing clusters expand, with manufacturers accelerating research and development in this area to meet the increasing demand for high-performance communication [22][31]. Competitive Landscape - Leading companies with stable production capacity and advanced technology are expected to benefit first from the rising demand in the data center sector, as the supply landscape remains relatively stable in the short term [36][37]. - The market for specialty optical fibers is more concentrated than that for standard telecommunications fibers, allowing leading manufacturers to capture a larger share of the value [34][36].