从供给端而言：光棒扩产周期长，工艺要求高，短期供给或趋紧。传统光棒扩产周期较长，光纤制备方 法中熔芯拉伸法适用于长距离光纤，主要包括预制棒成型以及光纤拉丝，其中主流预制棒制备方法包括 PCVD、OVD、VAD三种，光纤拉丝是将预制棒通过光纤拉丝塔进行高温拉丝，拉丝过程并不复杂，但 需协调下棒速度、炉内温度、拉丝速率等，对厂商技术成熟度及精密控制良率 要求较高，扩产难度较 大。 该行指短期或将供不应求，重视光纤光缆投资机会，随着全球AI蓬勃发展，或持续驱动数据中心内部 与DCI互联对光纤光缆的需求。短期来看，全球厂商扩产能力有限，或将形成供不应求的格局。该行认 为光纤光缆需求与价格有望维持稳步提升。该行推荐标的：亨通光电(600487.SH)、中天科技 (600522.SH); 受益标的：长飞光纤(06869,601869.SH)、永鼎股份(600105.SH)、烽火通信(600498.SH)及 特发信息(000070.SZ) 。 智通财经APP获悉，开源证券发布研报称，从需求端而言，随着AI大模型训练侧持续迭代，推理侧AI应 用落地加速，或持续拉动全球光纤光缆需求。面向数据中心内部的海量数据流动需求，高端单模 ...

Core Viewpoint - The continuous iteration of AI large model training and the acceleration of AI application implementation are expected to drive global demand for optical fibers and cables, particularly in data centers [1][2]. Demand Side - The construction of AI data centers and DCI interconnections is likely to sustain the demand for optical fibers and cables, with high-end single-mode and multi-mode fibers, along with ultra-high-speed optical modules, facilitating efficient short-distance data transmission and flexible interconnections [2]. - G.654.E optical fibers significantly enhance transmission distance and system capacity, contributing to the development of more efficient and economical long-distance high-bandwidth networks [2]. - The demand for hollow-core fibers is anticipated to gradually increase due to their advantages such as low latency, wide spectrum, low loss, and low nonlinearity, with active promotion of new technologies in both domestic and international markets [2]. Supply Side - The production cycle for traditional optical preforms is long, and the manufacturing process has high technical requirements, leading to potential short-term supply tightness [2]. - The expansion of optical fiber production capacity is constrained by the lengthy production cycle of optical preforms and the need for high precision in the manufacturing process, which may result in a tight supply situation in the short term [2]. - According to predictions from the Asia-Pacific Optical Fiber and Cable Industry Association and the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, global demand for optical fibers and cables is expected to reach hundreds of millions of core kilometers by 2025, maintaining a growth trend [2]. Investment Opportunities - The global development of AI is likely to continue driving demand for optical fibers and cables in data centers and DCI interconnections, creating a potential supply-demand imbalance in the short term [3]. - Recommended investment targets include Hengtong Optic-Electric and Zhongtian Technology, with beneficiaries including Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable, Yongding Holdings, FiberHome Technologies, and TeFa Information [3].

Core Viewpoint - The AI is profoundly reshaping the demand for optical fibers and cables, pushing the industry supply-demand relationship into a new cycle, with a potential supply shortage expected in the next two years [2][34]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The tightening supply has already led to price increases, with G.652.D fiber prices rising over 20% since early 2025, driven by AI demand for various fiber types that are occupying production capacity [2][6]. - Global demand and capacity have regional mobility, meaning that as overseas manufacturers supply North America, non-North American markets will also face supply shortages, with leading domestic companies having an export ratio of 30-50% [2][34]. - The global optical fiber demand is projected to reach 880 million core kilometers by 2027, with AI expected to account for 35% of the downstream demand for optical fibers and cables [4][34]. Market Trends - The optical fiber market is expected to stabilize and recover, driven by the demand from data centers and DCI (Data Center Interconnect) applications, with the market for AI-driven optical fibers projected to reach $2.1 billion by 2027, growing at a CAGR of approximately 73% from 2024 to 2027 [12][34]. - The supply side is characterized by a cautious expansion attitude among manufacturers, with current global optical fiber production capacity estimated at around 850 million core kilometers, which may fall short of annual demand [35][36]. Emerging Fiber Types - New types of optical fibers, such as G.654.E and hollow-core fibers, are expected to see rapid growth due to their advantages in low latency and long-distance transmission, making them suitable for DCI applications [20][29]. - Specialty fibers are gaining traction as AI-driven computing clusters expand, with manufacturers accelerating research and development in this area to meet the increasing demand for high-performance communication [22][31]. Competitive Landscape - Leading companies with stable production capacity and advanced technology are expected to benefit first from the rising demand in the data center sector, as the supply landscape remains relatively stable in the short term [36][37]. - The market for specialty optical fibers is more concentrated than that for standard telecommunications fibers, allowing leading manufacturers to capture a larger share of the value [34][36].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The demand for optical fibers and cables is expected to be driven by the construction of AI data centers and DCI interconnections, with a significant increase in global demand anticipated due to the ongoing evolution of AI large model training and application deployment [4] - The supply side faces challenges as the production cycle for optical preforms is long and the manufacturing process is complex, leading to potential short-term supply tightness [5] - The report highlights a potential supply-demand imbalance in the short term, with a recommendation to focus on investment opportunities in the optical fiber and cable sector [6] Demand Side Summary - The demand for optical fibers and cables is expected to grow due to the increasing need for high-density and low-power data transmission in data centers, driven by AI applications [4] - The G.654.E optical fiber is noted for its ability to enhance transmission distance and system capacity, contributing to the development of more efficient long-distance high-bandwidth networks [4] - New technologies such as hollow-core fibers are being actively developed, which may lead to increased demand in the long term due to their advantages in low latency and low loss [4] Supply Side Summary - The production of optical preforms is characterized by a long expansion cycle and high technical requirements, which may lead to a tight supply situation in the short term [5] - The report cites predictions from the Asia-Pacific Optical Fiber and Cable Industry Association and the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, estimating that global demand for optical fibers and cables could reach hundreds of millions of core kilometers by 2025 [5] - Prices for optical fibers have shown a significant rebound since May, indicating a positive outlook for demand and pricing driven by AI data center construction [5] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in the optical fiber and cable sector, specifically highlighting companies such as Hengtong Optic-Electric and Zhongtian Technology as primary targets, with additional beneficiaries including Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable, Yongding Co., FiberHome Technologies, and TeFa Information [6]

责任编辑：卢昱君 长飞光纤光缆（06869）盘中涨超5%，该股昨日大涨超21%，公司A股2连板。截至发稿，股价上涨 4.73%，现报48.72港元，成交额13.84亿港元。 近日市场热议光纤涨价。据看财经消息，有机构认为AI驱动光纤涨价。此前市场普遍认为，受限于运 营商宽带投资放缓，光纤始终处于降价周期。但近日光纤开始涨价，国内头部四家光纤厂商，以及海外 的康宁、藤仓等反馈，普缆散纤已涨价约15%。 华泰证券11月发布的研报指出，公司核心产品G.654.E光纤作为"东数西算"等长距离干线网络升级的首 选，已进入快速发展期，在中国电信近期集团级干线集采，公司G.654.E光缆以最大份额中标。在下一 代光纤技术方面，公司空芯光纤的研发与产业化进程全球领先。此外，公司通过子公司长芯博创布局的 MPO、AOC、高速铜缆等光互联组件业务已成为强劲增长点，受益于北美AI数据中心建设，公司海外 业务持续拓展。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 长飞光纤光缆（06869）盘中涨超5%，该股昨日大涨超21%，公司A股2连板。截至发稿，股价上涨 4.73%，现报48.72港元，成交额 ...

华泰证券11月发布的研报指出，公司核心产品G.654.E光纤作为"东数西算"等长距离干线网络升级的首 选，已进入快速发展期，在中国电信（601728）近期集团级干线集采，公司G.654.E光缆以最大份额中 标。在下一代光纤技术方面，公司空芯光纤的研发与产业化进程全球领先。此外，公司通过子公司长芯 博创（300548）布局的MPO、AOC、高速铜缆等光互联组件业务已成为强劲增长点，受益于北美AI数 据中心建设，公司海外业务持续拓展。 消息面上，近日市场热议光纤涨价。据看财经消息，有机构认为AI驱动光纤涨价。此前市场普遍认 为，受限于运营商宽带投资放缓，光纤始终处于降价周期。但近日光纤开始涨价，国内头部四家光纤厂 商，以及海外的康宁、藤仓等反馈，普缆散纤已涨价约15%。 长飞光纤（601869）光缆(06869)再涨超5%，该股昨日大涨超21%，公司A股2连板。截至发稿，涨 5.2%，报48.94港元，成交额11.63亿港元。 ...

华泰证券11月发布的研报指出，公司核心产品G.654.E光纤作为"东数西算"等长距离干线网络升级的首 选，已进入快速发展期，在中国电信近期集团级干线集采，公司G.654.E光缆以最大份额中标。在下一 代光纤技术方面，公司空芯光纤的研发与产业化进程全球领先。此外，公司通过子公司长芯博创布局的 MPO、AOC、高速铜缆等光互联组件业务已成为强劲增长点，受益于北美AI数据中心建设，公司海外 业务持续拓展。 消息面上，近日市场热议光纤涨价。据看财经消息，有机构认为AI驱动光纤涨价。此前市场普遍认 为，受限于运营商宽带投资放缓，光纤始终处于降价周期。但近日光纤开始涨价，国内头部四家光纤厂 商，以及海外的康宁、藤仓等反馈，普缆散纤已涨价约15%。 智通财经APP获悉，长飞光纤光缆(06869)再涨超5%，该股昨日大涨超21%，公司A股2连板。截至发 稿，涨5.2%，报48.94港元，成交额11.63亿港元。 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the rise of Changfei, a Chinese optical fiber company, which has successfully broken the monopoly of American firms in the optical fiber market through innovation and competitive pricing [1][9][22]. Company Background - Changfei was established in May 1988 as a joint venture, facing the challenge of American dominance in the optical fiber sector [1]. - By 1990, the U.S. optical fiber market was worth $1 billion, accounting for one-third of the global market, leading to high import costs for countries like China [3]. Innovation and Development - Changfei opted for independent research and development, leading to the production of its first mass-produced optical fiber in 1991, marking a significant milestone for China [5]. - The company developed three manufacturing technologies for optical fiber preform, becoming the only global enterprise to cover all these processes and achieve industrialization [7]. Market Impact - In 2023, the Chinese optical fiber communication market reached a total scale of 150 billion yuan, with Changfei's overseas revenue hitting a historical high [9]. - The reduction in optical fiber prices from over 2000 yuan per kilometer to around 30 yuan has significantly increased global orders for Changfei's products [12][22]. Global Expansion - Changfei's products are now available in over 90 countries, with many nations previously reliant on American products now opting for Changfei's offerings due to better performance and lower prices [14]. - The company has established six production bases in countries like Indonesia and Brazil, enhancing local employment and reducing costs [16]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, Changfei's revenue was approximately 5.348 billion yuan, with diversified business contributing 40% and increasing overseas revenue [16]. - Despite a year-on-year revenue decline of 13.31% in the first nine months of 2024, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 573 million yuan, indicating ongoing structural optimization [28]. Future Outlook - The global demand for optical fibers is expected to grow at an annual rate of 6.2%, with the Chinese market projected to recover with a growth rate of 2.3% [26]. - Changfei is also exploring new technologies like hollow-core optical fibers, which have attracted interest from major companies like Microsoft, indicating a promising market potential [20][29].

Core Insights - Longfei Fiber's Q3 revenue reached 3.891 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.46%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 174 million yuan, down 10.89% year-on-year but up 20.75% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company's core profitability improved, with operating profit for the first three quarters increasing by 63.3% year-on-year to 611 million yuan, and Q3 profit total increasing by 37.23% year-on-year, driven by revenue growth and improved gross margin [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 10.275 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.18%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 470 million yuan, down 18.02% year-on-year [1] - The comprehensive gross margin for the first three quarters was 28.83%, an increase of 1.01 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the higher proportion of high-value-added products such as G.654.E and multi-mode fibers [2] - The net profit margin was 4.57%, a decrease of 2.02 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to a significant reduction in non-operating income and increased tax expenses [2] Growth Drivers - The demand for high-end products driven by AI computing needs is strong, despite short-term pressure on traditional fiber demand from the telecom sector [1] - The G.654.E fiber, preferred for long-distance backbone network upgrades, has gained significant market share in recent group-level procurement by China Telecom [1] - The company is leading in the research and industrialization of hollow-core fibers, and its subsidiary's business in MPO, AOC, and high-speed copper cables has become a strong growth point, benefiting from the construction of AI data centers in North America [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders of 865 million yuan, 1.621 billion yuan, and 2.392 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.96%, 87.48%, and 47.51% respectively [2] - The target price for A-shares is set at 100.55 yuan, reflecting a PE ratio of 47x for 2026, while the target price for H-shares is 53.38 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 23x for 2026 [2]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of "consumption" and "technology" in the context of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, highlighting a shift towards high-quality development and technological self-reliance [2][29] - The report notes that the economic growth rate for Q3 2025 was slightly above expectations at 4.8%, with industrial production showing a strong recovery [29] - The report suggests that the stock market may experience upward trends following the release of the plenary session's communiqué, with historical data indicating positive performance in the days following similar announcements [2][29] Group 2 - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including storage chips, engineering machinery, and sectors benefiting from policy support such as real estate and photovoltaics [3] - The report highlights the ongoing volatility in the bond market, driven by factors such as U.S.-China trade tensions and expectations of monetary policy adjustments [5] - The report indicates that the electric aluminum sector is transitioning from scale expansion to quality improvement, with an expected increase in dividend payouts and valuation enhancements for companies like China Hongqiao [17] Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of specific companies, such as Buydeem, which has shown significant revenue growth driven by its core brand business [20] - The report highlights the potential for new growth in the precision parts sector, particularly in robotics, as companies leverage their technological advantages [18] - The report notes that the education sector, represented by Action Education, is experiencing a rebound in cash collections and is expanding its operations through a "100 School Plan" [22]