烽火通信 20250814 摘要 AI 驱动算力需求激增，光纤光缆行业迎来新机遇，数据中心内部需求大 幅提升，康宁财报显示数据中心用量同比翻倍，预示行业积极转变。 多模光纤因 AI 数据中心需求激增而供不应求，价格坚挺且盈利能力强劲， 毛利率高达 50%，烽火通信积极扩产，预计明年产能将大幅提升至 400 万芯公里，带来显著利润增量。 国内多模光纤需求旺盛，400G 高占比及多模比例推高需求量，海外市 场虽由康宁和腾仓主导，但仍存出海机会，未来三年多模需求预计持续 增长，为烽火通信带来重要利润来源。 空芯光纤发展迅速，微软已采购 15,000 公里，国内运营商和互联网公 司积极测试认证，烽火通信依托光谷合作，技术领先，有望凭借空芯光 纤提升公司估值。 烽火通信国产服务器业务目标保守估计今年营收 100 亿元，若下半年表 现超预期或上调目标，金融客户量已翻倍，下半年运营商需求增加，服 务器业务预计贡献 40%利润。 Q&A 近期光模块及其产业链的市场表现如何？ 近期光模块及其产业链表现出显著的市场增长。以旭创为例，其市值已达到 2,800 亿元，预计明年的估值仍然较为便宜，这主要得益于基本面的持续支撑。 GPT ...

各位领导晚上好我是长江证券的那个通信分析师于海宁那么汇报一下我们这个这个是这个通信我们通信这边啊然后在这么一个关键时刻的话呢一个这个这个电话会议的一个系列的巡礼啊然后总共我们的话呢计划是有这个25场的一个电话会议啊然后会把我们这个过往的一些这个做的一些深度研究啊然后找那些报告 以一个会议的形式然后做一个这个汇报然后这一次的话我们重点汇报的就是这个最新发布的一个这个这个报告就是说整个是看到这个GPT-5的话这个发布之后然后延续了这个商业的正循环然后同时的话关注的 关注到一个新的这个扩散的一个资历就是这个这个这个这个光光纤行业啊就AI光纤现在AI已经这个把风吹到了光纤那个行业啊然后对面像康宁这边发布了财报之后也是这个涨幅比较这个巨大啊然后这里面我们觉得存在一个比较大的一个这个预期差啊然后 然后也能够追上这个海外比方同期的上半年二季度的一些情况的话我们估计这个这个愿意付费的这个用户比例那可能会让会转移到国内啊会转移到国内啊会对这个这个这个算力的块也是有一个这个大幅的提升啊那么当前的话呢对应到算力这块呃我们肯定还是首推第一个还是这个海外这边啊因为海外这边的话呢可以看到从这个4月份以来在整个 先说这个行业的一个层面Op ...

GPT-5 延续商业化正循环，多模光纤加速渗透 20250812 摘要 AI 技术显著提升效率，谷歌 Jenny 3 实现持久化 3D 环境生成， ChatGPT 周活跃用户达 7 亿，付费企业用户达 500 万，同比增长 60%，年度营收达 130 亿美元，预计年底达 200 亿美元。Also Pick 上 半年 AI 收入达 40 亿美元，同比增长 300%。 硅谷裁员潮与 AI 直接相关，AI 代码生成提高效率，国内投资经理使用 AI 量化选股提升效率。国内大模型若赶超海外，付费用户比例可能转移， 大幅提升对算力需求，海外在 TOKEN 数及应用推理投入巨大。 光模块市场快速发展，Meta 800G 上修至谷歌 1.6T，市场期待英伟达 1.6T 上修。服务器代工厂商订单大幅上修，光模块指标可能偏厚，存在 较大预期差，英伟达 1.6T 市场预期较低，但指引量可能很大，业绩存在 大幅上修空间。 易中天作为一线龙头在海外链中首选，业绩测算空间大。天孚纯度高弹 性大，旭创拥有最大 1.6T 份额，新生为新进入者，有新增量。易中天是 当前重点推荐对象。 Q&A GPT-5 发布后对商业循环和相关行业的影响是什么 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the hollow-core fiber industry, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 56.52% over the next six years [6][39]. Core Insights - Hollow-core fiber, utilizing air as the transmission medium, offers significantly lower latency (30% reduction compared to traditional fibers) and lower loss (below 0.1 dB/km), making it suitable for time-sensitive applications such as financial high-frequency trading and AI data center interconnections [6][14]. - Microsoft is leading the commercialization of hollow-core fiber technology, planning to deploy 15,000 kilometers for data center and AI model connections within the next 24 months [6][34]. - The hollow-core fiber market is still in its early commercialization phase, with significant growth opportunities as demand from data center interconnections (DCI) expands [6][39]. Summary by Sections Hollow-Core Fiber Technology - Hollow-core fiber transmits over 95% of its energy in air, resulting in minimal non-linear effects and high thermal stability, which supports high-speed data transmission [6][12]. - The technology is expected to revolutionize traditional fiber optics by overcoming physical limitations associated with glass fibers [6][14]. Market Dynamics - The global market for hollow-core fiber is projected to reach $1 billion by the end of 2030, driven by rapid DCI business expansion [6][39]. - The competitive landscape is expected to remain stable, dominated by major players like Corning and domestic companies such as Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable [6][39]. Domestic Developments - China Mobile's first commercial deployment of hollow-core fiber in July 2025 marks a significant milestone in the domestic market, with expectations for increased demand and reduced costs as production scales up [6][46]. - Major Chinese companies like Yangtze Optical and Hengtong are making technological breakthroughs that will further drive down costs and enhance market adoption [6][49]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights key companies to watch, including Yangtze Optical Fibre, Hengtong, and FiberHome, which are positioned to benefit from the growth in hollow-core fiber technology and DCI demand [6][46].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨通信设备Ⅲ [Table_Title] 通信行业周观点：GPT-5 延续商业化正循环，多 模光纤加速渗透 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年第 32 周，通信板块上涨 1.57%，在长江一级行业中排名 22 位；2025 年年初以来，通 信板块上涨 22.42%，在长江一级行业中排名第 4 位。 GPT-5 与 Genie 3 等模型迭代带动 ARR 与付费用户高增，驱动 AI 商业化与基础设施投入提速；Scale-up 架构趋势确定，多模光纤技 术升级，持续催化光互连与高速光模块需求。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于海宁 SAC：S0490517110002 SFC：BUX641 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 通信设备Ⅲ cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 通信行业周观点： 2] GPT-5 延续商业化正循环， 多模光纤加速渗透 [Table_Summary2] 板块行情 2025 年第 32 周，通信板块上涨 1.57%，在长江一级行业中排名 22 位 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Viewpoints - The demand for new types of optical fibers is expected to experience rapid growth in the AI era, driven by the need for high capacity, low latency, and long-distance transmission in optical networks [1][9] - The company has demonstrated strong industrialization capabilities in the next-generation optical fiber core materials sector, showcasing various new optical fiber products at industry exhibitions [2][19] - The company is actively expanding production capacity to meet future demand, with a new advanced optical fiber materials R&D and manufacturing center project underway, expected to be completed by February 2026 [2][25] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 3.47 billion, 4.27 billion, and 5.12 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 12, 10, and 8 times respectively [3] - Revenue is expected to grow from 47.62 billion yuan in 2023 to 94.17 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15.47% [3][30] - The company’s EBITDA is projected to increase from 5.90 billion yuan in 2023 to 8.32 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [3][30] Market Position and Trends - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for multimode, ultra-low loss, and hollow-core optical fibers, particularly in data centers [1][19] - The successful commercialization of hollow-core optical fibers in China marks a significant advancement in the optical communication technology landscape, with the first such fiber being deployed in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [15][24]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for optical fiber in data centers is rapidly increasing due to AI-driven interconnect needs, leading to accelerated evolution in the optical fiber industry and significant investments from major overseas companies [1] Industry Summary - The optical fiber industry is experiencing a transformation as major companies focus on the development of hollow-core optical fibers, which are expected to standardize technology and promote large-scale applications [1] - The trend of "optical fiber replacing copper" is anticipated to continue in the long term, with multi-mode optical fibers expected to see increased deployment [1] Company Summary - Corning's Q2 2025 financial report indicates a rapid growth in demand for optical communication interconnects driven by data centers, reinforcing the positive outlook for the optical fiber market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing demand for data center interconnectivity driven by AI, leading to accelerated evolution in the optical fiber industry [1] - Major overseas companies are rapidly deploying hollow-core optical fibers, which is expected to standardize technology and promote large-scale applications [1] - Corning's Q2 2025 financial report indicates a rapid growth in demand for optical communication interconnects from data centers, reinforcing the long-term trend of "optical fiber replacing copper" [1] Group 2 - The multi-mode optical fiber is anticipated to see accelerated volume growth due to the rising demand [1]

国盛证券发布研报称，本周全球光通信行业迎来两大标志性事件：康宁发布超预期Q2财报，光通信业 务同比大增42%；安费诺宣布以105亿美元收购康普CCS业务，创下公司史上最大并购纪录。这两大事 件共同指向一个核心趋势——AI算力需求驱动下的"Scale-up"战略正在重塑光通信产业格局。该行继续 看好算力板块，坚定推荐算力产业链相关企业如光模块行业龙头中际旭创（300308）、新易盛 （300502）等，同时建议关注光器件"一大四小"天孚通信（300394）+仕佳光子/太辰光（300570）/博 创科技/德科立，建议关注国产算力产业链，如其中的液冷环节如英维克（002837）、东阳光 （600673）等。 国盛证券主要观点如下： 康宁Q2光通信业务高增，重点提及"Scale-up"战略 康宁2025年公布2025年Q2财报，2025Q2光通信业务营收15.7亿美元(同比+42%)，净利润2.47亿美元(同 比+73%)。康宁在财报中重点提及"Scale-up"战略，预计将带来现有20亿美元企业网络业务2-3倍的新增 市场空间。为支撑这一战略，康宁正与博通等合作伙伴推进CPO技术研发，以解决高密度节点内部的光 电转 ...

国金证券发布研报称，海外AI产业链业绩及资本开支超预期，AI算力硬件需求持续强劲。全球AI产业 链公司陆续公布2025Q2业绩，很多公司AI业绩超预期，Meta及微软也发布了超预期的Q2业绩，并对 2026年资本开支展望乐观。天风证券此前表示，长飞光纤在已完成初步布局的光模块与光器件、第三代 半导体、海洋工程及工业激光器等领域均取得了实质性进展。 消息面上，7月29日，康宁公布第二季度业绩，公司实现营收40.5亿美元，同比增长12%。其中光通信 业务二季度实现营收15.7亿美元，同比增长41%，实现净利润2.47亿美元，同比增长73%。长江证券指 出，康宁的企业和运营商网络业务双轮驱动下，光通信业务强劲增长；数据中心互联方案实现商业化落 地，未来可持续放量；"scale-up"趋势推进，OIO 光互联方案有望撬动企业网数倍增量空间。多模光纤 市场需求旺盛，盈利性优于普纤。建议重点关注：数通业务占比高的光纤光缆厂商长飞光纤等。 长飞光纤光缆(06869)尾盘涨超8%，截至发稿，涨7.95%，报30.96港元，成交额11.18亿港元。 ...