智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，AI对光纤光缆需求深刻重塑，推动行业供需关系走向新周期，行 业有望在未来两年内出现供不应求。供给趋紧已然带来产品涨价的现象——据调研，G.652.D散纤价格 较2025年初回升20%以上，虽该型号更多用于电信市场，但该行认为其涨价的核心原因之一是AI拉动的 多模光纤、G.657.A、G.654.E等型号挤占产能，导致传统品类供应也趋紧。如果供需关系进一步转为供 不应求，涨价趋势有望延续，在位厂商或迎来量价齐升。 中金主要观点如下： 2027年AI需求有望占光纤光缆下游35% AI推动数据中心建设蓬勃发展，二级市场过去对数据中心里各类硬件进行了深度的价值挖掘。而其中 光纤光缆行业由于传统电信需求占比较高(约九成)、且电信需求景气度低，得到的关注度有限。该行注 意到，随着AI需求在快车道上持续跃升，其在光纤光缆下游的占比正迎来明显提升，该行测算AI有望 推动数据中心内部&DCI两大场景下的光纤光缆需求，从2024年占比不到5%、提升至2027年的35%，带 动全球光纤需求攀升至2027年的8.8亿芯公里。 供需拐点将至 而在供给端，受到2019-2020年连续两次中国移动普缆集 ...

近日光纤开始涨价，国内头部四家光纤厂商，以及海外的康宁、藤仓等反馈，普缆散纤已涨价约15%。 展望后市，光纤行业发展将呈现双重趋势：普缆市场受益于价格企稳与需求回暖实现温和复苏，运营商 集采价格有望回升；特种光纤赛道迎来爆发，空芯光纤、多模光纤等高端品种在低时延、高带宽需求驱 动下，渗透率与利润率将显著高于传统品种，国内龙头在相关领域的技术优势有望转化为市场份额。 具体到A股市场，光纤涨价强化了板块的成长确定性，光纤光缆龙头企业直接受益于量价齐升，叠加海 外高利润订单增长，盈利弹性显著；光模块、光器件企业间接受益于光纤需求爆发，形成产业链协同增 长；AI算力相关的光通信配套企业则有望借助特种光纤发展打开长期成长空间。（光大证券微资讯） 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 光纤涨价核心驱动力来自需求端的结构性爆发：AI算力集群建设对数据中心内部及互联（DCI）的光缆 需求激增，光模块、MPO大规模出货带动光纤配套需求提升，单机柜所需光纤数量明显提升；同时海 外市场需求旺盛，CRU数据显示，2025年1-11月我国光棒、光纤出口量同比分别增长87.78%、 48.74%，北美AI市场等应 ...

Core Viewpoint - The AI is profoundly reshaping the demand for optical fibers and cables, pushing the industry supply-demand relationship into a new cycle, with a potential supply shortage expected in the next two years [2][34]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The tightening supply has already led to price increases, with G.652.D fiber prices rising over 20% since early 2025, driven by AI demand for various fiber types that are occupying production capacity [2][6]. - Global demand and capacity have regional mobility, meaning that as overseas manufacturers supply North America, non-North American markets will also face supply shortages, with leading domestic companies having an export ratio of 30-50% [2][34]. - The global optical fiber demand is projected to reach 880 million core kilometers by 2027, with AI expected to account for 35% of the downstream demand for optical fibers and cables [4][34]. Market Trends - The optical fiber market is expected to stabilize and recover, driven by the demand from data centers and DCI (Data Center Interconnect) applications, with the market for AI-driven optical fibers projected to reach $2.1 billion by 2027, growing at a CAGR of approximately 73% from 2024 to 2027 [12][34]. - The supply side is characterized by a cautious expansion attitude among manufacturers, with current global optical fiber production capacity estimated at around 850 million core kilometers, which may fall short of annual demand [35][36]. Emerging Fiber Types - New types of optical fibers, such as G.654.E and hollow-core fibers, are expected to see rapid growth due to their advantages in low latency and long-distance transmission, making them suitable for DCI applications [20][29]. - Specialty fibers are gaining traction as AI-driven computing clusters expand, with manufacturers accelerating research and development in this area to meet the increasing demand for high-performance communication [22][31]. Competitive Landscape - Leading companies with stable production capacity and advanced technology are expected to benefit first from the rising demand in the data center sector, as the supply landscape remains relatively stable in the short term [36][37]. - The market for specialty optical fibers is more concentrated than that for standard telecommunications fibers, allowing leading manufacturers to capture a larger share of the value [34][36].

光纤光缆行业最新观点汇报 20251222 摘要 2025 年光纤光缆市场呈现分化，运营商集采价格同比下降约 20%，但 散纤市场价格自 5 月起持续上涨，主要由 AI 数据中心和军用特种光纤需 求驱动，但总体增量有限。 中国市场光纤消耗总量在过去两年下降 7%-10%，2025 年降幅收窄至 约 1%，北美市场则受益于 AI 需求，增速接近 20%，数据中心和特种光 纤利润率显著高于运营商用光纤。 单模普通光纤毛利率在 20%-30%波动，特种与多模光纤毛利率可超 50%，对厂商利润贡献显著，头部厂商产能利用率仍有提升空间。 9 月后普缆价格企稳，多模与特种光纤需求增加改善供需平衡，提升行 业溢价，AI 驱动的数据中心建设对北美及国内市场有显著拉动作用。 军用特殊领域光纤需求可能因国际形势变化而减弱，需保持谨慎；中国 头部厂商对扩产谨慎，美国康宁减少对其他地区供应，为中国企业带来 更多订单机会。 当前涨价趋势至少在季度层面可持续，但长期需观察明年初中国电信集 采结果，这将影响运营商集采价格修复情况及大厂盈利预测。 投资重点应放在拥有大量光棒产能以及 PCVD 工艺能力强、能够制作多 模和特种光线的大型厂商， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The demand for optical fibers and cables is expected to be driven by the construction of AI data centers and DCI interconnections, with a significant increase in global demand anticipated due to the ongoing evolution of AI large model training and application deployment [4] - The supply side faces challenges as the production cycle for optical preforms is long and the manufacturing process is complex, leading to potential short-term supply tightness [5] - The report highlights a potential supply-demand imbalance in the short term, with a recommendation to focus on investment opportunities in the optical fiber and cable sector [6] Demand Side Summary - The demand for optical fibers and cables is expected to grow due to the increasing need for high-density and low-power data transmission in data centers, driven by AI applications [4] - The G.654.E optical fiber is noted for its ability to enhance transmission distance and system capacity, contributing to the development of more efficient long-distance high-bandwidth networks [4] - New technologies such as hollow-core fibers are being actively developed, which may lead to increased demand in the long term due to their advantages in low latency and low loss [4] Supply Side Summary - The production of optical preforms is characterized by a long expansion cycle and high technical requirements, which may lead to a tight supply situation in the short term [5] - The report cites predictions from the Asia-Pacific Optical Fiber and Cable Industry Association and the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, estimating that global demand for optical fibers and cables could reach hundreds of millions of core kilometers by 2025 [5] - Prices for optical fibers have shown a significant rebound since May, indicating a positive outlook for demand and pricing driven by AI data center construction [5] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in the optical fiber and cable sector, specifically highlighting companies such as Hengtong Optic-Electric and Zhongtian Technology as primary targets, with additional beneficiaries including Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable, Yongding Co., FiberHome Technologies, and TeFa Information [6]

消息面上，《信息光子技术发展与应用研究报告（2025年）》正式发布。报告指出，空芯光纤具有低时延、宽频谱、低损耗和低非线性效应等优势，是解决 传统光纤物理瓶颈的颠覆性方案。当前时点，空芯光纤处于快速迭代演进的关键窗口期。华西证券认为，空心光纤仍处于商业化前期，但是其时延低、宽频 谱、低损耗等特性在AI大模型连接应用需求有望逐渐起量，其多重潜力价值凸显，包括内部互联、城域数据中心互联以及广域互联均具备明显优势。 公开资料显示，长飞光纤光缆在传统光棒光纤业务基础上，发展多模、空芯光纤等高附加值产品，同时积极多元化。公司近日公告，公司发行7000万股新H 股，所得款项净额约为22.29亿港元。根据公告，配售资金的约80%将用于发展公司的海外业务，约20%将用作一般营运资金。 编辑/KOKO 今日， 再涨超10%，月内累计涨幅已超51%。截至发稿，涨10.24%，报57.05港元，成交额13.12亿港元。 ...

公开资料显示，长飞光纤光缆在传统光棒光纤业务基础上，发展多模、空芯光纤等高附加值产品，同时 积极多元化。公司近日公告，公司发行7000万股新H股，所得款项净额约为22.29亿港元。根据公告，配 售资金的约80%将用于发展公司的海外业务，约20%将用作一般营运资金。 长飞光纤光缆（06869）盘中涨超11%，本月内股价累计涨幅已超50%。截至发稿，股价上涨11.69%， 现报57.80港元，成交额10.98亿港元。 《信息光子技术发展与应用研究报告（2025年）》正式发布。报告指出，空芯光纤具有低时延、宽频 谱、低损耗和低非线性效应等优势，是解决传统光纤物理瓶颈的颠覆性方案。当前时点，空芯光纤处于 快速迭代演进的关键窗口期。华西证券认为，空心光纤仍处于商业化前期，但是其时延低、宽频谱、低 损耗等特性在AI大模型连接应用需求有望逐渐起量，其多重潜力价值凸显，包括内部互联、城域数据 中心互联以及广域互联均具备明显优势。 来源：新浪港股 ...

长飞光纤（601869）光缆(06869)再涨超9%，月内累计涨幅已超50%。截至发稿，涨7.44%，报55.5港 元，成交额7亿港元。 消息面上，《信息光子技术发展与应用研究报告(2025年)》正式发布。报告指出，空芯光纤具有低时 延、宽频谱、低损耗和低非线性效应等优势，是解决传统光纤物理瓶颈的颠覆性方案。当前时点，空芯 光纤处于快速迭代演进的关键窗口期。华西证券（002926）认为，空心光纤仍处于商业化前期，但是其 时延低、宽频谱、低损耗等特性在AI大模型连接应用需求有望逐渐起量，其多重潜力价值凸显，包括 内部互联、城域数据中心互联以及广域互联均具备明显优势。 公开资料显示，长飞光纤光缆在传统光棒光纤业务基础上，发展多模、空芯光纤等高附加值产品，同时 积极多元化。公司近日公告，公司发行7000万股新H股，所得款项净额约为22.29亿港元。根据公告，配 售资金的约80%将用于发展公司的海外业务，约20%将用作一般营运资金。 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on the 19th of this month, with limited impact on global liquidity due to previous rate hikes since March last year [1] - The most dangerous phase of liquidity shock has passed, as the futures market has already closed the most active "carry trade" positions, and the Federal Reserve's expansionary policy is stabilizing market liquidity expectations [1] - Concerns about the "AI bubble" in the US stock market and the overall vulnerability of the market may lead to a liquidity shock triggered by the yen's interest rate hike [1][2] Group 2 - The technology sector in the US stock market may experience adjustments that could prompt the Federal Reserve to resume quantitative easing, leading to a quick recovery in capital markets [2] - The outlook for major asset allocation remains positive for gold and RMB assets, driven by China's expanding export surplus and the potential for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts, which will support the long-term appreciation of the RMB [2] Group 3 - The optical fiber and cable industry is showing signs of recovery, with prices entering an upward channel, as retail prices for scattered fibers have rebounded by approximately 15%-20% [3] - The demand for high-value products such as multimode and ultra-low loss fibers is surging due to the explosion of AI computing power, leading manufacturers to shift capacity towards high-end products [3][4] - The growth in overseas demand is driving a strong "volume and price increase" trend in exports, with export values for optical rods, fibers, and cables expected to grow by over 50% year-on-year by October 2025 [3] Group 4 - Domestic manufacturers are maintaining restraint in expanding core optical rod capacity due to previous years of capacity clearing and management, which will limit short-term supply amid rapidly increasing demand [4] - The mismatch between supply and demand in the context of sustained demand growth will support continued price increases in the optical fiber industry [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 49.621 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.376 billion yuan, up 2.64% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin remains under pressure, with a gross margin of 13.35% for the first three quarters, down 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, and a gross margin of 12.92% for Q3, which is relatively stable year-on-year but down 0.64 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The company has successfully won several marine project bids, with a total order amount of approximately 20 billion yuan in hand, which is expected to support rapid growth in the future [2]. - A significant breakthrough was achieved with the successful bid for the ±500kV DC submarine cable project, showcasing the company's strong technical capabilities in the marine energy sector [3]. - The company has demonstrated its ability to industrialize various new types of optical fibers, including hollow-core fibers, which have passed quality inspections and achieved advanced performance levels [4]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity to meet future demand, with a new project aimed at producing special optical fibers set to be completed by February 2026 [5]. - In the AI sector, the company is collaborating with industry partners to develop advanced cooling solutions and a full range of optical module products to support domestic supercomputing center construction [6]. Financial Summary - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 3 billion, 3.7 billion, and 4.6 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 14, and 12 times [7]. - The total share capital is approximately 2,466.73 million shares, with a total market capitalization of about 53.48 billion yuan [8]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.87 yuan in 2023, increasing to 1.87 yuan by 2027 [12].