Core Viewpoint - The price of silicon wafers continues to rise, driven by increased demand from the photovoltaic installation sector, which has exceeded expectations this year [1][2][3]. Price Trends - The average transaction price for M10 monocrystalline silicon wafers (182mm/150μm) increased to 3.36 yuan per piece, a week-on-week increase of 6.67% - The average price for N-type monocrystalline silicon wafers (182mm/130μm) rose to 3.45 yuan per piece, with a week-on-week increase of 5.83% - The average price for G12 monocrystalline silicon wafers (210mm/150μm) remained at 4.35 yuan per piece, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.57% [1]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - From January to July, the domestic newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached 97.2 GW, a year-on-year increase of 158% - In July alone, the newly installed capacity was 18.7 GW, marking a year-on-year increase of 174% and a month-on-month increase of 9% [2]. - The increase in silicon wafer prices is attributed to the unexpected surge in demand, as well as a reduction in overall industry capacity utilization due to lower prices earlier in the year [2][3]. Market Expectations - The silicon industry association noted that major producers are operating at full capacity, with an expected supply of 58 GW to 60 GW of silicon wafers in August [3]. - Despite the price increases, leading companies like LONGi Green Energy have maintained their prices, benefiting from strong cost control capabilities [4]. - Future price trends for silicon wafers will depend on various factors, including production capacity, the momentum of silicon material price increases, and the pricing trends in the battery segment [4]. Mid-term Outlook - Although the production of N-type battery cells is expected to increase, the market has not yet entered a phase of large-scale inventory replenishment, suggesting that silicon wafer prices may remain low and fluctuate in the mid-term [5]. - The overall supply of silicon materials and wafers still exceeds demand, which may provide competitive advantages to companies with technological and pricing advantages [5].

Core Insights - The recent decline in silicon material prices is attributed to a significant reduction in demand from downstream silicon wafer manufacturers, with production cuts exceeding 50% [1][3] - The price of N-type silicon material has decreased more sharply than P-type, reflecting a growing price gap between large and small manufacturers [1][3] - The industry is entering a consolidation phase, where less competitive players may be eliminated, leading to a stronger market position for companies with advanced technology and cost management [3] Price Trends - The average transaction price for N-type silicon material is 75,200 CNY/ton, down 19.23% from two weeks ago, while single crystal dense material averages 67,900 CNY/ton, down 15.23% [1] - InfoLink Consulting reports a smaller price drop for dense material, with an average of 74,000 CNY/ton, and a price range for second-tier and new entrants between 61,000 CNY and 68,000 CNY/ton [2] Market Dynamics - The pressure on silicon material companies is increasing due to inventory accumulation and the need to secure orders amid low demand [1] - The silicon wafer market shows a significant price drop, with M10 single crystal wafers averaging 2.39 CNY/piece, N-type at 2.50 CNY/piece, and G12 at 3.35 CNY/piece, reflecting weekly declines of 5.91%, 3.47%, and 3.46% respectively [4] - There is a notable price differentiation between first-tier and second-tier silicon wafer manufacturers, particularly for N-type wafers [4][6] Downstream Impact - The prices for mainstream battery sizes are also declining, with P-type M10 and G12 batteries trading between 0.47-0.5 CNY/W and 0.52-0.53 CNY/W respectively [5] - The component prices are approaching 1.1 CNY/W, primarily fulfilling previous orders, indicating ongoing downward pressure in the photovoltaic supply chain [6] - The overall price decline in the photovoltaic industry suggests an impending reshuffle, highlighting the varying capabilities of companies in market expansion and cost control [6]