Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant rebound in prices and performance, driven by policy support, market adjustments, and technological innovations, marking a critical turning point for the sector in 2025 [3][10][31]. Price Rebound - The photovoltaic sector has collectively strengthened, primarily due to rising prices [4]. - The price of polysilicon hit a low in mid-2025 and began a strong rebound in the third quarter, with N-type silicon prices increasing from approximately 34,400 yuan/ton to around 47,100 yuan/ton in just one month, reflecting a 37% increase [5][6][7]. - By September 2025, polysilicon prices surpassed 50,000 yuan/ton, leading to price increases in downstream products like silicon wafers and battery cells [8]. - The average price of domestic TOPCon double-glass modules in September 2025 was about 0.715 yuan/watt, a 3.6% increase from July [9]. - The price rebound is attributed to strong policy interventions and market clearing, moving the industry away from a cycle of losses [10][11]. Performance Recovery - Recent performance data from leading photovoltaic companies indicate a recovery phase, with many entering a "significant loss reduction" phase [15][17]. - For instance, Sunshine Power reported a Q3 2025 revenue of 22.869 billion yuan, a 20.83% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 4.147 billion yuan, up 57.04% [16]. - Longi Green Energy recorded a revenue of 50.915 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with losses narrowing by 48% compared to the previous year [16]. - Overall, the industry is showing signs of recovery, with institutional funds reallocating towards the photovoltaic sector, marking a shift from previous net outflows [18]. Future Drivers - The long-term demand for photovoltaic energy remains strong, with the International Energy Agency predicting that renewable energy will account for 43% of global electricity generation by 2030 [21][22]. - The "anti-involution" policy is fundamentally changing the industry by shifting focus from price competition to high-quality value competition [24][25]. - This policy is leading to a gradual recovery of product prices, with polysilicon prices in Q3 2025 rising above the comprehensive cost line, setting the stage for profitability across the industry [25]. - The industry is also witnessing a shift in focus towards technological innovation, with resources being directed towards advanced technologies like BC back-contact cells and perovskite materials [27][28]. Conclusion - The photovoltaic industry is at a critical turning point in 2025, characterized by rational valuation, visible performance inflection points, favorable policy environments, accelerated technological iterations, and renewed capital inflows [31][32]. - The overall attractiveness of the photovoltaic sector is drawing investment, particularly towards leading companies with strong operational and financial health [32][33].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant rebound in prices and performance, driven by policy support, market adjustments, and technological innovations, marking a critical turning point for the sector in 2025 [3][11][34]. Price Rebound - The photovoltaic sector has collectively strengthened, primarily due to rising prices [4]. - The price of polysilicon hit a low in mid-2025 and began a strong rebound in the third quarter, with N-type silicon material prices increasing from approximately 34,400 CNY/ton in late June to around 47,100 CNY/ton by the end of July, marking a 37% increase in just one month [5][6][7]. - By September 2025, the price of polysilicon surpassed 50,000 CNY/ton [8]. - The price increases in upstream materials have led to corresponding rises in the prices of silicon wafers and battery cells, with N-type G10L silicon wafers seeing a weekly price increase of 9.09% in late July [9]. - The average price of domestic TOPCon double-glass modules in September 2025 was approximately 0.715 CNY/W, reflecting a 3.6% increase from July [10]. Performance Recovery - The latest performance data from photovoltaic companies indicates a recovery phase, with many firms entering a "significant loss reduction" phase after price stabilization [16]. - For instance, Sunshine Power reported a Q3 2025 revenue of 22.869 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 20.83%, with net profit soaring by 57.04% to 4.147 billion CNY [17]. - Longi Green Energy recorded a Q3 2025 loss of 834 million CNY, but this was a 48% reduction compared to the previous year, with revenue of 50.915 billion CNY [17]. - TBEA's Q3 2025 revenue slightly increased by 0.31% to 24.566 billion CNY, while net profit surged by 81.51% to 2.3 billion CNY [17]. - Overall, these performance metrics confirm that the photovoltaic industry has reached a bottom and is entering a recovery phase [18]. Future Drivers - Long-term demand for the global photovoltaic market remains strong, with the International Energy Agency predicting that renewable energy will account for 43% of global electricity generation by 2030, with solar power surpassing hydropower as the leading renewable source [22][23]. - The "anti-involution" policy is fundamentally changing the industry by shifting focus from price competition to high-quality value competition [25]. - The price of polysilicon has rebounded above the comprehensive cost line in Q3 2025, laying the groundwork for profitability recovery across the industry [27]. - Major companies are showing greater self-discipline by slowing down production expansion and shutting down inefficient capacities, significantly improving market supply-demand dynamics [28]. - The "anti-involution" policy is also reshaping the innovation ecosystem within the industry, allowing companies to invest more in technological research and development [30]. Conclusion - The photovoltaic industry is at a critical turning point in 2025, characterized by rational valuation, visible performance inflection points, favorable policy environments, accelerated technological iterations, and renewed capital inflows [34]. - The overall valuation and growth potential of the photovoltaic sector are attractive, drawing in investments focused on leading technology firms and financially healthy companies capable of pursuing new technological directions [35].

Core Insights - The recent decline in silicon material prices is attributed to a significant reduction in demand from downstream silicon wafer manufacturers, with production cuts exceeding 50% [1][3] - The price of N-type silicon material has decreased more sharply than P-type, reflecting a growing price gap between large and small manufacturers [1][3] - The industry is entering a consolidation phase, where less competitive players may be eliminated, leading to a stronger market position for companies with advanced technology and cost management [3] Price Trends - The average transaction price for N-type silicon material is 75,200 CNY/ton, down 19.23% from two weeks ago, while single crystal dense material averages 67,900 CNY/ton, down 15.23% [1] - InfoLink Consulting reports a smaller price drop for dense material, with an average of 74,000 CNY/ton, and a price range for second-tier and new entrants between 61,000 CNY and 68,000 CNY/ton [2] Market Dynamics - The pressure on silicon material companies is increasing due to inventory accumulation and the need to secure orders amid low demand [1] - The silicon wafer market shows a significant price drop, with M10 single crystal wafers averaging 2.39 CNY/piece, N-type at 2.50 CNY/piece, and G12 at 3.35 CNY/piece, reflecting weekly declines of 5.91%, 3.47%, and 3.46% respectively [4] - There is a notable price differentiation between first-tier and second-tier silicon wafer manufacturers, particularly for N-type wafers [4][6] Downstream Impact - The prices for mainstream battery sizes are also declining, with P-type M10 and G12 batteries trading between 0.47-0.5 CNY/W and 0.52-0.53 CNY/W respectively [5] - The component prices are approaching 1.1 CNY/W, primarily fulfilling previous orders, indicating ongoing downward pressure in the photovoltaic supply chain [6] - The overall price decline in the photovoltaic industry suggests an impending reshuffle, highlighting the varying capabilities of companies in market expansion and cost control [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Since 2021, the PV industry has expanded production rapidly, leading to a supply-demand imbalance in 2024, with falling capacity utilization rates, sharp price drops in PV products, and companies trapped in price wars and losses [1][4]. - The "involution-style" competition in the PV industry stems from supply-demand mismatch, including profit and policy-driven overexpansion, limited theoretical efficiency improvement of crystalline silicon PV cells, and local protection hindering capacity phase-out. Domestic and external demand challenges further exacerbate overcapacity risks [2][4]. - The hazards of "involution-style" competition are significant, including huge losses and deteriorating debt repayment capabilities of PV companies, hindering technological progress, and posing risks to China's dual-carbon targets and triggering frequent anti-dumping investigations abroad [3][4]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Performances of Involution 1.1 Overcapacity - China's PV industry entered a rapid expansion cycle since 2021. The production capacity of the four major main materials expanded from 150 - 300GW in 2020 to over 1000GW in 2024, far exceeding global market demand [12][13]. - The operating rate of each link has declined since Q2 2024. Silicon material operating rate has been around 30% for over half a year, and that of silicon wafers, batteries, and components fell to 35 - 50% initially and rebounded to 50 - 70% recently, still lower than 2022 - 2023 [12][13]. 1.2 Low Utilization - Since 2023, due to the reversal of supply-demand pattern, PV product prices turned from rising to falling, and price wars amplified the decline. By mid - 2025, N - type silicon material, wafers, and batteries prices dropped over 80% compared to early 2023, and mainstream PV modules in China fell about 30% from early 2024 [28][29]. - In 2024, listed PV companies' revenue decreased about 22% year - on - year. PV enterprises' net profits shrank rapidly in 2024 and turned into losses from Q2 2024, with losses worsening quarter by quarter [28][29]. 2. Reasons of Involution 2.1 Profit Motive and Policy Encouragement - The PV industry has low technical thresholds and fast - spreading new technologies. Upstream, production equipment and lines are standardized with low entry barriers; downstream, SMEs can assemble modules easily; and core materials can be sourced from mature suppliers. New PV technologies can be copied and spread quickly [34][36]. - Benefiting from technological innovation, PV power generation cost decreased significantly, with rapid profit growth. In 2021, the net profit of A - share PV industry was 54.2 billion yuan, up 46%; in 2022, it was 116.8 billion yuan, up 97% [35]. - PV enterprises expanded production to consolidate market position. From 2019 - 2022, their fundraising scale expanded year by year. In 2023, the industry's capital expenditure was 5.37 times that of 2018, and construction in progress was 4.39 times [45][48]. - Abundant profits attracted non - PV enterprises. At least 56 non - PV enterprises entered in 2021, 69 in 2022, with a total investment over 307.8 billion yuan in 2022 [46][48]. - Technological bottlenecks and market competition led to low - price competition. The theoretical efficiency of crystalline silicon PV cells is limited, and new technologies are easily replicated, resulting in homogeneous competition [56][61]. - Local administrative interventions distorted market competition, making it difficult to phase out outdated capacity. An example is a PV enterprise A supported by local国资, which continued to operate despite problems, hindering capacity clearance [63][64]. 2.2 Domestic and External Demand Face Challenges - The surge in new energy installations led to grid integration challenges. China's average solar equipment utilization hours declined since 2024, and PV utilization rates dropped from 97 - 98% in 2021 to about 94% in 2025. Some eastern coastal provinces restricted new installations in 2024 [65][66]. - Power sector reforms in 2025 affected new energy installations. Policies led to a high new installation in the first five months, but PV module production scheduling declined in June [72][73]. - Overseas trade protectionism limited export demand. In 2025, China's PV exports faced pressure, with the cumulative export value of four major PV materials down 25.5% year - on - year in the first five months, and PV module exports down 2.2% [77][79]. 3. Hazards of Involution 3.1 Survival Crisis for PV Enterprises - Financial reports of 22 listed PV enterprises showed that their operating conditions deteriorated in 2023. In 2024, they reported net losses exceeding 40 billion yuan. As of July 2025, most remained unprofitable [85][86]. - The EBITDA/Interest Expense ratio dropped from 50 to 10, and the EBITDA/Interest - bearing Debt ratio dropped from 4.6 to 0.1 from 2023 to now [85]. 3.2 Negative Impact on the Long - Term Development of PV Industry - Sample companies' R&D expenditures dropped from 20 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.87 billion yuan between 2024 and Q1 2025, a 11% year - on - year decrease, the lowest in three years [96][97]. - The reduction in R&D investment is due to profit losses, cash flow constraints, and lack of self - innovation. It will impede core technological advancements and prolong technology iteration cycles [96][97].

Core Viewpoint - The overall sentiment in the polysilicon market is weak, with expectations for a continued decline in prices and demand due to inventory pressures and reduced downstream procurement [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On May 7, polysilicon futures experienced a sharp decline, hitting a low of 35,655.0 yuan, with a current price of 35,700.0 yuan, reflecting a drop of 2.65% [1]. - The current inventory of polysilicon is around 250,000 tons, with total industry inventory estimated at nearly 500,000 tons, indicating significant de-stocking pressure [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The polysilicon market is in a capacity reduction cycle, with production cuts across various segments, leading to a slight recovery in March production to 96,000 tons, but overall price support remains weak [1]. - Downstream silicon wafer production shows signs of stabilization, but the focus remains on depleting polysilicon inventory, with new orders being limited [1]. - The demand side is negatively impacted by the end of the photovoltaic rush, with expected declines in silicon wafer production in May and June [2]. Group 3: Price Trends and Future Outlook - The N-type silicon material price has dropped nearly 4%, and the overall market is expected to see further price declines due to weak demand and inventory accumulation [1][2]. - The average cash cost for mainstream silicon material manufacturers is around 35,000-36,000 yuan per ton, which may provide some support for prices in the near term [2]. - The market is anticipated to remain in a weak state, with potential short-term rebounds as the market approaches delivery pricing in mid to late May [2].