| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/12 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF O掉期 M1 | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS FO掉期 M1 | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br ent M1 | 鹿特丹10ppm G asoil掉期 M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G O M1 | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H SFO M1 | | 2026/01/05 | 328.36 | 377.83 | -9.43 | 600.70 | -222.87 | 21.06 | 49.47 | | 2026/01/06 | 327.72 | 377.00 | -9.51 | 593.30 | -216.30 | 21.18 | 49.28 | | 2026/01/07 | 315.72 | 370.14 | -10.22 | 580.60 | -210.46 | 20.31 | 54.42 | | 2026/01/08 | 311 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking in Singapore fluctuated, the monthly spread strengthened slightly, the basis weakened, the HSFO cracking in Europe declined, and the EW strengthened this week. The 0.5% cracking in Singapore rebounded, the monthly spread fluctuated, and the basis oscillated at a low level. In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil decreased slightly, ARA's residual oil increased, Fujairah's residual oil increased, and EIA's residual oil inventory remained flat. The price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the external market rebounded. Singapore's high - sulfur was supported by EW and refinery purchases, but the spot basis weakened rapidly. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern in the short term, and the short - term downward space for low - sulfur is limited [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data (Swap M1) - From November 6th to 12th, the price of 3.5% HSF decreased by 16.44, the price of 0.5% VLS decreased by 17.53, the HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.18, the 10ppm Gasoil decreased by 3.88, the VLSFO - Gasoil decreased by 21.41, the LGO - Brent M1 remained unchanged, and the VLSFO - HSFO decreased by 1.09 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Data (Swap M1) - From November 6th to 12th, the price of 380cst increased by 3.78, the price of 180cst increased by 5.56, the price of VLSFO increased by 3.60, the price of Gasoil increased by 2.64, the 380cst - Brent M1 decreased by 0.58, and the VLSFO - Gasoil decreased by 15.93 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From November 6th to 12th, the FOB price of 380cst increased by 2.48, the FOB price of VLSFO increased by 2.73, the 380 basis decreased by 0.01, the high - sulfur internal - external price difference increased by 1.4, and the low - sulfur internal - external price difference decreased by 4.2 [2] Domestic FU Data - From November 6th to 12th, the price of FU 01 increased by 22, the price of FU 05 increased by 18, the price of FU 09 increased by 12, the FU 01 - 05 increased by 4, the FU 05 - 09 increased by 6, and the FU 09 - 01 decreased by 10 [2] Domestic LU Data - From November 6th to 12th, the price of LU 01 increased by 49, the price of LU 05 increased by 42, the price of LU 09 increased by 40, the LU 01 - 05 increased by 7, the LU 05 - 09 increased by 2, and the LU 09 - 01 decreased by 9 [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated at a high level. The near - month spread weakened, the basis weakened month - on - month, the EW spread continued to weaken, the high - sulfur in the ARA region strengthened, and the FU internal - external spread oscillated between 8 - 10 US dollars. The low - sulfur cracking weakened month - on - month but was at a historical low year - on - year. The month - spread weakened slightly, and the LU internal - external spread dropped to 7 - 8 US dollars. The basis stabilized in the second half of the week. From a fundamental perspective, Singapore's residue oil inventory increased, at a historical high year - on - year. The floating storage inventory stabilized after destocking, also at a high level year - on - year. The residue oil in the ARA region increased slightly, with inventory at a historical low for the same period. The EIA residue oil inventory increased slightly at a low level. The inventory in Fujairah increased month - on - month, at a low level year - on - year. The high - sulfur floating storage in the Middle East increased significantly this week. Recently, the high - sulfur spot in Singapore has weakened, but the cracking is supported by raw material procurement, with limited short - term downside. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain an oscillating pattern. The FU internal - external spread should be viewed within a range recently, and the end - point of the 01 contract is bearish. This week, the LU futures remained weak. In the fourth quarter, the overseas low - sulfur market has a short - selling pattern on rallies, and the internal - external spread should focus on quota usage [3][6] Group 3: Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the 3.5% HSF O swap M1 in Rotterdam increased from 367.92 to 395.67, a change of 21.78; the 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased from 393.96 to 420.75, a change of 18.09; the HSFO - Brent M1 changed from - 2.92 to - 2.95, a change of 0.17; the 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased from 607.89 to 677.93, a change of 45.67; the VLSFO - GO M1 changed from - 213.93 to - 257.18, a change of - 27.58; the VLSFO - H SFO M1 changed from 22.57 to 25.08, a change of 2.48; the VLSFO - H SFO M1 spread changed from 26.04 to 25.08, a change of - 3.69 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the Singapore 380cst M1 increased from 359.76 to 384.53, a change of 17.57; the Singapore 180cst M1 increased from 369.96 to 392.53, a change of 17.57; the Singapore VLSFO M1 increased from 420.01 to 442.26, a change of 10.97; the Singapore GO M1 increased from 80.60 to 88.08, a change of 4.36; the Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 changed from - 3.71 to - 3.34, a change of 0.76; the Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 changed from - 176.43 to - 209.53, a change of - 21.29 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the FOB 380cst in Singapore increased from 361.29 to 384.00, a change of 19.30; the FOB VLSFO increased from 421.95 to 438.50, a change of 11.20; the 380 basis changed from - 0.65 to - 0.73, a change of 0.73; the high - sulfur internal - external spread remained unchanged at 8.9; the low - sulfur internal - external spread increased from 6.8 to 6.9, a change of 0.1 [2] Domestic FU Data - From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the FU 01 increased from 2627 to 2752, a change of 61; the FU 05 increased from 2600 to 2701, a change of 53; the FU 09 increased from 2560 to 2640, a change of 44; the FU 01 - 05 spread increased from 27 to 51, a change of 8; the FU 05 - 09 spread increased from 40 to 61, a change of 9; the FU 09 - 01 spread changed from - 67 to - 112, a change of - 17 [2] Domestic LU Data - From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the LU 01 increased from 3064 to 3193, a change of 57; the LU 05 increased from 3099 to 3220, a change of 62; the LU 09 increased from 3110 to 3234, a change of 59; the LU 01 - 05 spread changed from - 35 to - 27, a change of - 5; the LU 05 - 09 spread changed from - 11 to - 14, a change of 3; the LU 09 - 01 spread changed from 46 to 41, a change of 2 [3]