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燃料油早报-20251113
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 01:05
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking in Singapore fluctuated, the monthly spread strengthened slightly, the basis weakened, the HSFO cracking in Europe declined, and the EW strengthened this week. The 0.5% cracking in Singapore rebounded, the monthly spread fluctuated, and the basis oscillated at a low level. In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil decreased slightly, ARA's residual oil increased, Fujairah's residual oil increased, and EIA's residual oil inventory remained flat. The price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the external market rebounded. Singapore's high - sulfur was supported by EW and refinery purchases, but the spot basis weakened rapidly. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern in the short term, and the short - term downward space for low - sulfur is limited [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data (Swap M1) - From November 6th to 12th, the price of 3.5% HSF decreased by 16.44, the price of 0.5% VLS decreased by 17.53, the HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.18, the 10ppm Gasoil decreased by 3.88, the VLSFO - Gasoil decreased by 21.41, the LGO - Brent M1 remained unchanged, and the VLSFO - HSFO decreased by 1.09 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Data (Swap M1) - From November 6th to 12th, the price of 380cst increased by 3.78, the price of 180cst increased by 5.56, the price of VLSFO increased by 3.60, the price of Gasoil increased by 2.64, the 380cst - Brent M1 decreased by 0.58, and the VLSFO - Gasoil decreased by 15.93 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From November 6th to 12th, the FOB price of 380cst increased by 2.48, the FOB price of VLSFO increased by 2.73, the 380 basis decreased by 0.01, the high - sulfur internal - external price difference increased by 1.4, and the low - sulfur internal - external price difference decreased by 4.2 [2] Domestic FU Data - From November 6th to 12th, the price of FU 01 increased by 22, the price of FU 05 increased by 18, the price of FU 09 increased by 12, the FU 01 - 05 increased by 4, the FU 05 - 09 increased by 6, and the FU 09 - 01 decreased by 10 [2] Domestic LU Data - From November 6th to 12th, the price of LU 01 increased by 49, the price of LU 05 increased by 42, the price of LU 09 increased by 40, the LU 01 - 05 increased by 7, the LU 05 - 09 increased by 2, and the LU 09 - 01 decreased by 9 [3]
燃料油早报-20251028
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 02:09
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the cracking of Singapore 380 fuel oil strengthened slightly, the monthly spread declined month-on-month, and the basis fluctuated at a low level. The high-low sulfur spread is at a historically low level year-on-year. The cracking of Singapore 0.5 low-sulfur fuel oil weakened, and the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at historically low levels. In terms of inventory, Singapore residual oil was destocked, the high-sulfur floating storage was higher than the historical average for the same period, and the low-sulfur floating storage increased slightly. Fujeirah's heavy inventory increased significantly to 8,520 thousand tons, the high-sulfur floating storage was destocked but still at a historically high level year-on-year. ARA ports were destocked, and the inventory was at a historically low level year-on-year. In terms of logistics, the total arrival of domestic fuel oil remained flat, and the arrival of low-sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly. Saudi Arabia's shipments declined month-on-month, while the UAE's shipments increased month-on-month. Recently, the weak fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil continued, and it is expected to maintain a low-level fluctuation pattern. High-sulfur fuel oil has started to accumulate inventory globally. The cracking of Singapore fuel oil is still supported by purchasing demand, but it faces downward pressure in the medium term due to factors such as Russian sanctions. FU fluctuated mainly and weakened slightly this week [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From October 21 - 27, 2025, for Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, the price changed by -1.59; for Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, it changed by -2.85; for Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1, it changed by 0.66; for Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, it changed by 16.55; for Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1, it changed by -19.40; for LGO - Brent M1, it changed by 2.23; for Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1, it changed by -1.26 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Data - From October 21 - 27, 2025, for Singapore 380cst M1, the price changed by -6.64; for Singapore 180cst M1, it changed by -7.64; for Singapore VLSFO M1, it changed by -1.75; for Singapore GO M1, it changed by 0.63; for Singapore 380cst - Brent M1, it changed by 0.01; for Singapore VLSFO - GO M1, it changed by -6.41 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot and Domestic FU Data - From October 21 - 27, 2025, for Singapore FOB 380cst, the price changed by -5.84; for FOB VLSFO, it changed by 1.02; for 380 basis, it changed by 0.45; for high-sulfur internal - external spread, it changed by 0.2; for low-sulfur internal - external spread, it changed by 0.4. For domestic FU 01, it changed by 28; for FU 05, it changed by 31; for FU 09, it changed by 20; for FU 01 - 05 (not fully available), the change situation is not clear; for FU 05 - 09, it changed by 11; for FU 09 - 01, it changed by -8 [2] Domestic LU Data - From October 21 - 27, 2025, for domestic LU 01, the price changed by 33; for LU 05, it changed by 32; for LU 09, it changed by 37; for LU 01 - 05, it changed by 1; for LU 05 - 09, it changed by -5; for LU 09 - 01, it changed by 4 [3]
燃料油早报-20251024
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 00:57
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated at a high level. The near - month spread weakened, the basis weakened month - on - month, the EW spread continued to weaken, the high - sulfur in the ARA region strengthened, and the FU internal - external spread oscillated between 8 - 10 US dollars. The low - sulfur cracking weakened month - on - month but was at a historical low year - on - year. The month - spread weakened slightly, and the LU internal - external spread dropped to 7 - 8 US dollars. The basis stabilized in the second half of the week. From a fundamental perspective, Singapore's residue oil inventory increased, at a historical high year - on - year. The floating storage inventory stabilized after destocking, also at a high level year - on - year. The residue oil in the ARA region increased slightly, with inventory at a historical low for the same period. The EIA residue oil inventory increased slightly at a low level. The inventory in Fujairah increased month - on - month, at a low level year - on - year. The high - sulfur floating storage in the Middle East increased significantly this week. Recently, the high - sulfur spot in Singapore has weakened, but the cracking is supported by raw material procurement, with limited short - term downside. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain an oscillating pattern. The FU internal - external spread should be viewed within a range recently, and the end - point of the 01 contract is bearish. This week, the LU futures remained weak. In the fourth quarter, the overseas low - sulfur market has a short - selling pattern on rallies, and the internal - external spread should focus on quota usage [3][6] Group 3: Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the 3.5% HSF O swap M1 in Rotterdam increased from 367.92 to 395.67, a change of 21.78; the 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased from 393.96 to 420.75, a change of 18.09; the HSFO - Brent M1 changed from - 2.92 to - 2.95, a change of 0.17; the 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased from 607.89 to 677.93, a change of 45.67; the VLSFO - GO M1 changed from - 213.93 to - 257.18, a change of - 27.58; the VLSFO - H SFO M1 changed from 22.57 to 25.08, a change of 2.48; the VLSFO - H SFO M1 spread changed from 26.04 to 25.08, a change of - 3.69 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the Singapore 380cst M1 increased from 359.76 to 384.53, a change of 17.57; the Singapore 180cst M1 increased from 369.96 to 392.53, a change of 17.57; the Singapore VLSFO M1 increased from 420.01 to 442.26, a change of 10.97; the Singapore GO M1 increased from 80.60 to 88.08, a change of 4.36; the Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 changed from - 3.71 to - 3.34, a change of 0.76; the Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 changed from - 176.43 to - 209.53, a change of - 21.29 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the FOB 380cst in Singapore increased from 361.29 to 384.00, a change of 19.30; the FOB VLSFO increased from 421.95 to 438.50, a change of 11.20; the 380 basis changed from - 0.65 to - 0.73, a change of 0.73; the high - sulfur internal - external spread remained unchanged at 8.9; the low - sulfur internal - external spread increased from 6.8 to 6.9, a change of 0.1 [2] Domestic FU Data - From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the FU 01 increased from 2627 to 2752, a change of 61; the FU 05 increased from 2600 to 2701, a change of 53; the FU 09 increased from 2560 to 2640, a change of 44; the FU 01 - 05 spread increased from 27 to 51, a change of 8; the FU 05 - 09 spread increased from 40 to 61, a change of 9; the FU 09 - 01 spread changed from - 67 to - 112, a change of - 17 [2] Domestic LU Data - From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the LU 01 increased from 3064 to 3193, a change of 57; the LU 05 increased from 3099 to 3220, a change of 62; the LU 09 increased from 3110 to 3234, a change of 59; the LU 01 - 05 spread changed from - 35 to - 27, a change of - 5; the LU 05 - 09 spread changed from - 11 to - 14, a change of 3; the LU 09 - 01 spread changed from 46 to 41, a change of 2 [3]