| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/10/24 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | 日期 | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | LGO-Brent M1 | SFO M1 | | 2025/10/17 | 367.92 | 393.96 | -2.92 | 607.89 | -213.93 | 22.57 | 26.04 | | 2025/10/20 | 365.63 | 394.21 | -3.00 | 614.83 | -220.62 | 23.69 | 28.58 | | 2025/10/21 | 366.84 | 397.70 | -3.25 | 617.65 | -219.95 | 23.78 | 30.86 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core View - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated at a high level, the monthly spread of nearby months weakened, the basis oscillated at a low level, the EW spread weakened rapidly, the high - sulfur in the ARA region strengthened, and the FU internal - external spread oscillated between 8 - 10 US dollars. The low - sulfur cracking rebounded slightly but was at a historical low compared to the same period, the monthly spread was weakly sorted, the LU internal - external spread dropped to 7 - 9 US dollars, and the MF0.5 basis weakened. From the fundamental perspective, Singapore's residue oil inventory decreased (compared to a high level), floating storage decreased significantly, ARA residue oil inventory decreased at a historical low for the same period, EIA residue oil inventory slightly increased at a low level, Fujeirah slightly increased inventory (compared to a low level), and the Middle - East high - sulfur floating storage decreased significantly this week. Recently, the Singapore high - sulfur spot market has weakened, and the cracking is supported by raw material procurement, with limited short - term downward space. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain an oscillating pattern, and the FU internal - external spread should be viewed within a range. This week, the LU market was still weak. The issuance of the third batch of export quotas met expectations, and the external MF0.5 basis weakened again. In the fourth quarter, the LU internal - external spread can be expanded on dips, and attention should be paid to the quota usage [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, for Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, the price changed from 430.72 to 378.78, a decrease of 51.94; for Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, it changed from 393.32 to 408.50, an increase of 15.18; for Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1, it changed from - 5.01 to - 3.49, an increase of 1.52; for Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, it changed from 675.28 to 630.08, a decrease of 45.2; for Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1, it changed from - 244.56 to - 221.58, an increase of 22.98; for LGO - Brent M1, it changed from 24.98 to 23.27, a decrease of 1.71; for Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1, it changed from 37.40 to 29.72, a decrease of 7.68 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, for Singapore 380cst M1, the price changed from 409.64 to 376.28, a decrease of 33.36; for Singapore 180cst M1, it changed from 418.64 to 382.83, a decrease of 35.81; for Singapore VLSFO M1, it changed from 477.13 to 443.88, a decrease of 33.25; for Singapore Gasoil M1, it changed from 90.86 to 84.47, a decrease of 6.39; for Singapore 380cst - Brent M1, it changed from - 3.88 to - 3.93, a decrease of 0.05; for Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1, it changed from - 195.23 to - 181.20, an increase of 14.03 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, for FOB 380cst, the price changed from 410.90 to 374.29, a decrease of 36.61; for FOB VLSFO, it changed from 477.90 to 438.87, a decrease of 39.03; the 380 basis changed from 0.95 to - 0.50, a decrease of 1.45; the high - sulfur internal - external spread changed from 8.8 to 9.8, an increase of 1; the low - sulfur internal - external spread changed from 10.8 to 5.8, a decrease of 5 [2]. Domestic FU Data - From September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, for FU 01, the price changed from 2919 to 2737, a decrease of 182; for FU 05, it changed from 2852 to 2697, a decrease of 155; for FU 09, it changed from 2748 to 2644, a decrease of 104; for FU 01 - 05, it changed from 67 to 40, a decrease of 27; for FU 05 - 09, it changed from 104 to 53, a decrease of 51; for FU 09 - 01, it changed from - 171 to - 93, an increase of 78 [2]. Domestic LU Data - From September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, for LU 01, the price changed from 3469 to 3226, a decrease of 243; for LU 05, it changed from 3423 to 3220, a decrease of 203; for LU 09, it changed from 3390 to 3208, a decrease of 182; for LU 01 - 05, it changed from 46 to 6, a decrease of 40; for LU 05 - 09, it changed from 33 to 12, a decrease of 21; for LU 09 - 01, it changed from - 79 to - 18, an increase of 61 [3].

Report Overview - The report is a fuel oil morning report released by the energy and chemical team of the research center on September 5, 2025, covering fuel oil data from August 29 to September 4, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst strengthened oscillatingly, the near - month spread strengthened slightly, the basis rebounded, and the EW spread continued to rebound. Affected by the impact of US sanctions on delivery warehouses, FU10 rose sharply and then fell. The low - sulfur cracking weakened, the spread oscillated, and the LU internal - external spread fluctuated around 10 US dollars. The MF0.5 basis began to rebound. Fundamentally, Singapore's residue inventory increased, floating storage decreased, ARA's residue inventory remained flat, floating storage inventory increased significantly, and EIA's residue began to accumulate. The global supply - demand of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. Due to logistics reshaping, the demand for high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provided support, and the EW spread was still being repaired. The domestic high - sulfur spot was still in excess. A new round of sanctions had a large potential impact on the supply of heavy crude oil in China, providing some support for the valuation of Asian fuel oil. This week, LU maintained an oscillation. The external MF0.5 basis started to rebound, and the opportunity for the low - sulfur to high - sulfur spread to widen in the fourth quarter could be noted [4][10] Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/08/29 | 2025/09/04 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 389.06 | 377.63 | -0.64 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 456.37 | 441.32 | -4.96 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -6.14 | -7.05 | 0.41 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 654.16 | 665.68 | -7.81 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -197.79 | -224.36 | 2.85 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 22.15 | 24.02 | -0.39 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 67.31 | 63.69 | -4.32 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/08/29 | 2025/09/04 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 401.16 | 388.65 | -8.63 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 416.16 | 398.86 | -10.92 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 485.77 | 468.34 | -16.91 | | Singapore GO M1 | 85.94 | 87.04 | -1.49 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -4.48 | -5.32 | 0.53 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -150.19 | -175.76 | -5.89 | [2][9] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/08/29 | 2025/09/04 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 399.85 | 387.09 | -9.17 | | FOB VLSFO | 488.05 | 474.28 | -11.56 | | 380 Basis | -1.10 | -1.00 | 0.45 | | High - sulfur Internal - external Spread | 2.4 | 6.0 | 0.0 | | Low - sulfur Internal - external Spread | 8.0 | 9.4 | -0.8 | [3] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/08/29 | 2025/09/04 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2812 | 2760 | -80 | | FU 05 | 2773 | 2721 | -76 | | FU 09 | 2735 | 2694 | -48 | | FU 01 - 05 | 39 | 39 | -4 | | FU 05 - 09 | 38 | 27 | -28 | | FU 09 - 01 | -77 | -66 | 32 | [3] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/08/29 | 2025/09/04 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3479 | 3395 | -97 | | LU 05 | 3435 | 3359 | -89 | | LU 09 | 3312 | 3341 | -100 | | LU 01 - 05 | 44 | 36 | -8 | | LU 05 - 09 | 123 | 18 | 11 | | LU 09 - 01 | -167 | -54 | -3 | [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - This week, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst high - sulfur fuel oil declined, the near - month spread was weak and at a historical low, and the EW spread rebounded on Friday. The 9 - 10 spread rebounded slightly to $3.75/ton, the basis fluctuated at a low level, and the FU01 internal - external spread was 0. The 0.5 cracking spread of Singapore fuel oil fluctuated downward, the 9 - 10 spread rebounded slightly to $3.25/ton, the LU11 internal - external spread fluctuated around $10, and the 09 internal - external spread continued to weaken. Singapore's on - land and floating storage inventories increased this week, pressuring the near - month spread. Saudi Arabia's shipments were at a historical high, with high net exports, while UAE's shipments decreased significantly month - on - month. Egypt's net imports decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a seasonal high. The east - west divergence of high - sulfur fuel oil continued, and the current price difference triggered logistics changes. In the heavy - quality pattern, the 380cst cracking spread was the weakest, and the heavy - quality crude oil premium was the strongest, with a predicted two - way regression in the future. This week, LU weakened as expected, the external MF0.5 followed gasoline and diesel to weaken slightly, the basis fluctuated, and the LU internal - external spread weakened. The Singapore hi - 5 spread declined slightly, with no clear direction recently [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Rotterdam Fuel Oil - From August 1st to 7th, 2025, the prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased from 414.34 to 404.69, a change of - 6.41; Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO swap M1 decreased from 469.52 to 455.81, a change of - 9.08; Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased from - 3.46 to - 2.15, a change of 0.63; Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased from 652.93 to 644.50, a change of - 10.11; Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased from - 183.41 to - 188.69, a change of 1.03; LGO - Brent M1 decreased from 20.50 to 22.56, a change of - 0.85; Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased from 55.18 to 51.12, a change of - 2.67 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil - For Singapore fuel oil swaps, from August 1st to 7th, 2025, Singapore 380cst M1 decreased from 420.12 to 406.75, a change of - 6.45; Singapore 180cst M1 decreased from 431.52 to 418.46, a change of - 4.74; Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased from 501.95 to 484.37, a change of - 10.08; Singapore Gasoil M1 decreased from 89.91 to 85.03, a change of - 0.80; Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased from - 4.72 to - 1.82, a change of 0.91; Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased from - 163.38 to - 144.85, a change of - 4.16 [1][6] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot - From August 1st to 7th, 2025, FOB 380cst decreased from 412.35 to 402.93, a change of - 3.90; FOB VLSFO decreased from 504.71 to 488.15, a change of - 6.96; 380 - basis decreased from - 5.95 to - 5.35, a change of - 0.30; high - sulfur internal - external spread increased from 0.0 to 2.6, a change of 1.3; low - sulfur internal - external spread increased from 9.4 to 9.9, a change of 1.4 [2] Domestic FU - From August 1st to 7th, 2025, FU 01 decreased from 2946 to 2838, a change of - 21; FU 05 decreased from 2906 to 2799, a change of - 19; FU 09 decreased from 2916 to 2826, a change of - 9; FU 01 - 05 decreased from 40 to 39, a change of - 2; FU 05 - 09 decreased from - 10 to - 27, a change of - 10; FU 09 - 01 increased from - 30 to - 12, a change of 12 [2] Domestic LU - From August 1st to 7th, 2025, LU 01 decreased from 3607 to 3463, a change of - 33; LU 05 decreased from 3553 to 3416, a change of - 21; LU 09 decreased from 3625 to 3510, a change of - 35; LU 01 - 05 decreased from 54 to 47, a change of - 12; LU 05 - 09 increased from - 72 to - 94, a change of 14; LU 09 - 01 decreased from 18 to 47, a change of - 2 [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking was volatile. The 380 near - end ran strongly, the monthly spread strengthened again, and the basis was volatile. The low - sulfur cracking was volatile, the near - end monthly spread declined, and the basis was volatile. This week, there was a significant inventory build - up on land in Singapore, a slight inventory build - up at ARA ports, and a drawdown of residual oil in the US. Recently, the low - sulfur valuation has been realized, and there is room for repair in cracking and inter - monthly spreads after supply recovery. The high - sulfur cracking ran strongly, with profits higher than the historical average. This year, in China, affected by consumption tax deductions and tariff adjustments, the feedstock demand of fuel oil refineries has significantly declined. In terms of marine fuel, the global high - sulfur marine fuel from January to March increased by 2% year - on - year, and Singapore was basically flat. The total marine fuel was weaker year - on - year. Subsequently, the impact of tariffs on global trade activities should be monitored. Recently, Saudi Arabia's net imports have rebounded, and Egypt's purchases have continued. The high - sulfur near - end is strong. Opportunities for the decline of high - sulfur cracking in the medium and long term should be monitored [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From May 20th to May 26th, 2025, for Rotterdam's 3.5% HSFO swap M1, the price changed from 407.23 to 401.31, a decrease of 4.33; for Rotterdam's 0.5% VLSFO swap M1, it changed from 446.09 to 447.03, a decrease of 2.24; for Rotterdam's HSFO - Brent M1, it changed from - 0.27 to - 0.94, a decrease of 0.50; for Rotterdam's 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, it changed from 588.04 to 585.92, a decrease of 2.40; for Rotterdam's VLSFO - GO M1, it changed from - 141.95 to - 138.89, an increase of 0.16; for LGO - Brent M1, it changed from 15.90 to 16.20, a decrease of 0.30; for Rotterdam's VLSFO - HSFO M1, it changed from 38.86 to 45.72, an increase of 2.09 [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap and Spot Data - Swap data: From May 20th to May 26th, 2025, for Singapore's 380cst M1, the price changed from 431.93 to 424.98, a decrease of 1.56; for Singapore's 180cst M1, it changed from 438.43 to 431.23, a decrease of 1.68; for Singapore's VLSFO M1, it changed from 485.73 to 484.07, an increase of 4.57; for Singapore's GO M1, it changed from 79.88 to 79.00, an increase of 0.77; for Singapore's 380cst - Brent M1, it changed from 3.21 to 2.50, a decrease of 1.24; for Singapore's VLSFO - GO M1, it changed from - 105.38 to - 100.53, a decrease of 1.13 [3] - Spot data: From May 20th to May 26th, 2025, for Singapore's FOB 380cst, the price changed from 434.71 to 430.07, an increase of 1.27; for FOB VLSFO, it changed from 498.93 to 493.11, an increase of 3.07; the 380 basis changed from - 0.25 to 7.15, an increase of 5.65; the high - sulfur internal - external spread changed from 9.6 to 8.8, a decrease of 0.6; the low - sulfur internal - external spread changed from 12.2 to 13.1, a decrease of 1.2 [4] Domestic Fuel Oil Futures Data - FU data: From May 20th to May 26th, 2025, for FU 01, the price changed from 2722 to 2681, a decrease of 11; for FU 05, it changed from 2662 to 2627, a decrease of 11; for FU 09, it changed from 2874 to 2836, an increase of 3; FU 01 - 05 remained unchanged at 54; FU 05 - 09 changed from - 212 to - 209, a decrease of 14; FU 09 - 01 changed from 152 to 155, an increase of 14 [4] - LU data: From May 20th to May 26th, 2025, for LU 01, the price changed from 3390 to 3360, an increase of 2; for LU 05, it changed from 3314 to 3285, a decrease of 6; for LU 09, it changed from 3445 to 3431, an increase of 26; LU 01 - 05 changed from 76 to 75, an increase of 8; LU 05 - 09 changed from - 131 to - 146, a decrease of 32; LU 09 - 01 changed from 55 to 71, an increase of 24 [5]