| 燃料油早报 | 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/13 | | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/11/06 | 371.92 | 409.77 | -4.47 | 690.76 | -280.99 | 30.48 | 37.85 | | 2025/11/07 | 370.65 | 414.33 | -4.91 | 693.94 | -279.61 | 30.87 | 43.68 | | 2025/11/10 | 371.28 | 414.78 | -4.71 | 690.87 | -276.09 | 30.17 | 43.50 | | 2025/11/1 ...

| 日期 | FOB 380cst | FOB VLSFO | 380基差 | 高硫内外价差 | 低硫内外价差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/10/30 | 372.56 | 442.83 | -1.95 | 9.1 | 14.3 | | 2025/10/31 | 374.81 | 448.61 | -1.75 | - | - | | 2025/11/03 | - | 456.00 | -3.75 | 8.0 | 10.2 | | 2025/11/04 | 369.12 | 448.83 | -6.00 | 7.9 | 9.4 | | 2025/11/05 | 365.13 | 447.76 | -6.00 | 7.8 | 11.0 | | 变化 | -3.99 | -1.07 | 0.00 | -0.1 | 1.6 | | 国 内 F U | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | FU 01 | FU 05 | FU 09 | FU 01-05 | FU 0 ...

| 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/10/24 | 400.88 | 424.62 | -2.65 | 688.86 | -264.24 | 28.32 | 23.74 | | 2025/10/27 | 400.43 | 423.42 | -2.15 | 705.25 | -281.83 | 30.55 | 22.99 | | 2025/10/28 | 389.26 | 411.42 | -2.31 | 680.86 | -269.44 | 28.62 | 22.16 | | 变化 | 2.73 | 2.03 | 0.54 | 3.19 | -1.16 | 0. ...

Report Core View - This week, the crack spread of Singapore 380 fuel oil strengthened slightly, the monthly spread declined month-on-month, and the basis fluctuated at a low level. The high-low sulfur spread is at a historically low level year-on-year. The crack spread of Singapore 0.5 low-sulfur fuel oil weakened, and the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at historically low levels. In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil inventory decreased, the high-sulfur floating storage is higher than the historical average for the same period, and the low-sulfur floating storage increased slightly. The heavy oil inventory in Fujairah increased significantly to 8,520 thousand tons. The high-sulfur floating storage decreased but is still at a historically high level year-on-year. The ARA port's inventory decreased and is at a historically low level year-on-year. In terms of logistics, the total arrival of domestic fuel oil remained flat, and the arrival of low-sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly. Saudi Arabia's shipments declined month-on-month, while the UAE's shipments increased month-on-month. Recently, the weak fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil continued, and it is expected to maintain a low-level oscillation pattern. The global high-sulfur fuel oil inventory began to accumulate. The crack spread of Singapore's high-sulfur fuel oil is still supported by purchasing demand, but it faces downward pressure in the medium term due to factors such as sanctions on Russia. The internal and external prices of FU oscillated mainly and weakened slightly this week. [4][5] Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/10/23 | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 396.75 | 400.88 | 400.43 | 389.26 | 390.21 | 0.95 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 420.88 | 424.62 | 423.42 | 411.42 | 415.93 | 4.51 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -2.55 | -2.65 | -2.15 | -2.31 | -2.85 | -0.54 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 678.26 | 688.86 | 705.25 | 680.86 | 688.80 | 7.94 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -257.38 | -264.24 | -281.83 | -269.44 | -272.87 | -3.43 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 26.90 | 28.32 | 30.55 | 28.62 | 29.11 | 0.49 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 24.13 | 23.74 | 22.99 | 22.16 | 25.72 | 3.56 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/10/23 | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 384.53 | 394.15 | 387.51 | 383.93 | 378.21 | -5.72 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 392.53 | 402.15 | 394.51 | 389.68 | 384.21 | -5.47 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 442.26 | 448.43 | 446.68 | 443.72 | 445.43 | 1.71 | | Singapore GO M1 | 88.08 | 90.28 | 90.91 | 91.15 | 91.38 | 0.23 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -3.87 | -3.30 | -3.68 | -3.23 | -4.74 | -1.51 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -209.53 | -219.64 | -226.05 | -230.79 | -230.78 | 0.01 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/10/23 | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 384.00 | 392.86 | 387.02 | 383.42 | 372.68 | -10.74 | | FOB VLSFO | 438.50 | 445.23 | 446.25 | 441.88 | 437.28 | -4.60 | | 380 Basis | -0.73 | -1.35 | -0.90 | -1.15 | -1.80 | -0.65 | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 8.6 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 10.2 | 10.4 | 0.2 | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 6.9 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 13.4 | 12.6 | -0.8 | [3] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/10/23 | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2752 | 2814 | 2842 | 2818 | 2796 | -22 | | FU 05 | 2701 | 2741 | 2772 | 2756 | 2744 | -12 | | FU 09 | 2640 | 2663 | 2683 | 2675 | 2672 | -3 | | FU 01 - 05 | 51 | - | 70 | 62 | 52 | -10 | | FU 05 - 09 | 61 | 78 | 89 | 81 | 72 | -9 | | FU 09 - 01 | -112 | -151 | -159 | -143 | -124 | 19 | [3] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/10/23 | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3193 | 3224 | 3257 | 3273 | 3246 | -27 | | LU 05 | 3220 | 3230 | 3262 | 3237 | 3212 | -25 | | LU 09 | 3234 | 3235 | 3272 | 3262 | 3235 | -27 | | LU 01 - 05 | -27 | -6 | -5 | 36 | 34 | -2 | | LU 05 - 09 | -14 | -5 | -10 | -25 | -23 | 2 | | LU 09 - 01 | 41 | 11 | 15 | -11 | -11 | 0 | [4]

| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/10/24 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | 日期 | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | LGO-Brent M1 | SFO M1 | | 2025/10/17 | 367.92 | 393.96 | -2.92 | 607.89 | -213.93 | 22.57 | 26.04 | | 2025/10/20 | 365.63 | 394.21 | -3.00 | 614.83 | -220.62 | 23.69 | 28.58 | | 2025/10/21 | 366.84 | 397.70 | -3.25 | 617.65 | -219.95 | 23.78 | 30.86 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated at a high level, the near - month spread weakened, the basis fluctuated at a low level, the EW spread weakened rapidly, the high - sulfur in the ARA region strengthened, and the FU internal - external spread fluctuated between 8 - 10 US dollars. The low - sulfur cracking rebounded slightly but was at a historical low compared to the same period. The spread was weakly sorted, the LU internal - external spread fell to 7 - 9 US dollars, and the MF0.5 basis weakened [3]. - From a fundamental perspective, Singapore's residue oil inventory decreased and was at a high level compared to the same period. The floating storage decreased significantly. ARA's residue oil inventory decreased at a historical low during the same period. EIA's residue oil inventory slightly increased at a low level, and Fujeirah slightly increased its inventory and was at a low level compared to the same period. The Middle East's high - sulfur floating storage decreased significantly this week. Recently, the high - sulfur spot in Singapore has weakened, and the cracking is supported by raw material procurement. The short - term downward space is limited. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain an oscillating pattern, and the FU internal - external spread should be viewed within a range. This week, the LU market was still weak. The issuance of the third batch of export quotas met expectations, and the external MF0.5 basis weakened again. In the fourth quarter, the LU internal - external spread can be expanded when the price is low. Pay attention to the quota usage [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Fuel Oil Price Data - **Rotterdam**: From October 10th to 16th, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by 3.17, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased by 3.55, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.28, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased by 0.38. The LGO - Brent M1 remained unchanged [1]. - **Singapore**: From October 10th to 16th, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 3.22, Singapore 180cst M1 increased by 3.98, and Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased by 1.04. The Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased by 0.17 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot - From October 10th to 16th, 2025, the FOB 380cst price increased by 1.62, the FOB VLSFO price decreased by 1.67, the 380 basis increased by 0.25, the high - sulfur internal - external spread increased by 0.8, and the low - sulfur internal - external spread decreased by 0.6 [2]. Domestic FU - From October 10th to 16th, 2025, FU 01 increased by 11, FU 05 increased by 5, FU 09 increased by 8, FU 01 - 05 increased by 6, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 3, and FU 09 - 01 decreased by 3 [2]. Domestic LU - From October 10th to 16th, 2025, LU 01 decreased by 1, LU 05 increased by 11, LU 09 increased by 23, LU 01 - 05 decreased by 12, LU 05 - 09 decreased by 12, and LU 09 - 01 increased by 24 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur crack spread fluctuated and declined, the near-month spread decreased, and the EW continued to weaken. The 380 8-9 month spread weakened to $1.75, the basis weakened and then fluctuated, the FU09 internal and external spread rebounded slightly, and the domestic delivery volume was large, maintaining a loose pattern. The Singapore 0.5 crack spread declined slightly, the month spread weakened, and it fluctuated around $4.5 for the 8-9 month. The LU internal and external spread weakened slightly and then fluctuated, with the 09 around $16. [6][7] - This week, Singapore's onshore inventory increased significantly, the window was under delivery pressure, and the near-month contract was under pressure. Saudi Arabia's shipments increased month-on-month. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, Egypt's net imports reached a new high, and the high-sulfur supply and demand were still in the peak season. However, the East-West and internal-external spreads have quickly declined. The external low-sulfur valuation is high, and the LU internal and external spread is running at a high level. Attention should be paid to the domestic production situation. [7] - The Singapore Hi-5 spread reached a new high this year, both 380cst and VLSFO weakened. The domestic FU internal and external spread rebounded slightly, and the LU valuation is high. Attention can be paid to the short-term valuation regression opportunity of FU-LU, with the risk being the continuous weakening of the external 380cst. [7] Summary by Related Content Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From July 15 to July 21, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased from $412.56 to $422.21, a change of $2.92; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased from $466.16 to $469.91, a change of -$1.96; the Rotterdam HSFO-Brent M1 increased from -$3.12 to -$1.66, a change of $0.90; etc. [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From July 15 to July 21, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased from $404.43 to $411.16, a change of -$0.23; the price of Singapore 180cst M1 increased from $414.93 to $425.21, a change of $1.57; the Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased from $496.15 to $493.65, a change of -$3.65; etc. [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From July 15 to July 21, 2025, the FOB 380cst price increased from $395.38 to $404.97, a change of $0.39; the FOB VLSFO price decreased from $501.64 to $497.55, a change of -$3.97; the 380 basis increased from -$6.98 to -$6.11, a change of $0.53; etc. [5] Domestic FU Data - From July 15 to July 21, 2025, the price of FU 01 decreased from 2828 to 2886, a change of -1; the price of FU 05 increased from 2788 to 2828, a change of 7; the price of FU 09 increased from 2840 to 2924, a change of 12; etc. [5] Domestic LU Data - From July 15 to July 21, 2025, the price of LU 01 decreased from 3529 to 3550, a change of -20; the price of LU 05 remained unchanged at 3500; the price of LU 09 decreased from 3639 to 3603, a change of -31; etc. [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated downward, the near - month spread declined, and the EW continued to weaken. The 380 8 - 9 month spread weakened to $1.75, the basis weakened and then fluctuated, the FU09 domestic - foreign spread rebounded slightly, the domestic delivery volume was large, and the supply remained loose. The Singapore 0.5 crack spread declined slightly, the month spread weakened, and the 8 - 9 month spread fluctuated around $4.5. The LU domestic - foreign spread weakened slightly and then fluctuated, with LU09 fluctuating around $16. [4][5] - This week, Singapore's on - land inventory increased significantly. Due to delivery pressure on the window, the near - month contract was under pressure, and Saudi Arabia's shipments increased month - on - month. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, Egypt's net imports reached a new high. Although the high - sulfur supply and demand are in the peak season, the East - West and domestic - foreign spreads have dropped rapidly. The foreign low - sulfur valuation is high, and the LU domestic - foreign spread is running at a high level. Attention should be paid to the domestic production situation. [5] - Singapore's Hi - 5 spread reached a new high this year, both 380cst and VLSFO weakened. The domestic FU domestic - foreign spread rebounded slightly, and the LU valuation is high. Attention can be paid to the short - term valuation regression opportunity of FU - LU, with the risk being the continuous weakening of the foreign 380cst. [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From July 11 to July 17, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 changed by $4.57, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 changed by $3.93, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed by - $0.25, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 changed by $18.74, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed by - $14.81, LGO - Brent M1 changed by $1.35, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 changed by - $0.64. [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From July 11 to July 17, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 changed by - $1.30, Singapore 180cst M1 changed by - $0.48, Singapore VLSFO M1 changed by - $1.97, Singapore GO M1 changed by $0.29, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 changed by $0.07, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed by - $4.11. [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From July 11 to July 17, 2025, the FOB 380cst price changed by - $2.82, FOB VLSFO changed by $1.27, the 380 basis changed by - $0.79, the high - sulfur domestic - foreign spread changed by - $0.4, and the low - sulfur domestic - foreign spread changed by - $0.5. [3] Domestic FU Data - From July 11 to July 17, 2025, FU 01 changed by - 5, FU 05 changed by - 10, FU 09 changed by - 17, FU 01 - 05 changed by 5, FU 05 - 09 changed by 7, and FU 09 - 01 changed by - 12. [3] Domestic LU Data - From July 11 to July 17, 2025, LU 01 changed by - 38, LU 05 changed by - 21, LU 09 changed by - 50, LU 01 - 05 changed by - 17, LU 05 - 09 changed by 29, and LU 09 - 01 changed by - 12. [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 380 cracking continued to strengthen, the 380 near - month spread fluctuated, and the 380 basis weakened. The low - sulfur cracking rebounded, the spread against diesel strengthened, the Singapore low - sulfur monthly spread strengthened, and the basis fluctuated around +2. [3] - On the fundamental side, on - land stocks in Singapore continued to accumulate, ARA stocks increased slightly, and EIA stocks increased. In floating storage, high - sulfur stocks in Singapore increased significantly. [3] - Low - sulfur prices fluctuated. The high - sulfur floating storage in Fujairah decreased slightly, the low - sulfur floating storage decreased, the overall high - sulfur floating storage in the Middle East continued to decline, and the low - sulfur floating storage declined; European floating storage increased, the high - sulfur floating storage in the US fluctuated, the low - sulfur floating storage fluctuated, and the floating storage with unknown sulfur content increased. [9] - Saudi shipments decreased, UAE shipments increased month - on - month, and Russian shipments decreased month - on - month. In 2025, attention should be paid to the impact of sanctions on Iran on global heavy - oil valuations. In Asia, attention should be paid to whether Russian supply will return to the benchmark. The far - month 380 faces downward space. Recently, with the decline of Middle East floating storage and the significant increase of on - land stocks in Singapore, the 380 near - month continues to face pressure. [9] - In the low - sulfur market, the Singapore basis rebounded slightly recently, and the spread against diesel began to strengthen. [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From April 10 - 11, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased from 384.75 to 388.25, a change of 2.16; Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased from 421.90 to 423.18, a change of 2.79; Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed from - 2.00 to - 1.66, a change of - 0.87; Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased from 575.33 to 572.50, a change of - 11.80; Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed from - 153.43 to - 149.32, a change of - 9.01; LGO - Brent M1 changed from 16.23 to 14.50, a change of - 0.33; Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 changed from 37.15 to 34.93, a change of - 0.63. [1] - From April 14 - 16, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 changed from 398.72 to 397.83; Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 changed from 431.42 to 430.85; Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed from - 1.29 to - 2.30; Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 changed from 586.30 to 595.85; Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed from - 154.88 to - 165.00; LGO - Brent M1 changed from 16.23 to 16.43; Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 changed from 32.70 to 33.02. [8] Singapore Fuel Oil Data Swap Data - From April 10 - 16, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 changed from 397.57 to 413.13, a change of - 4.81; Singapore 180cst M1 changed from 408.79 to 425.63, a change of - 4.31; Singapore VLSFO M1 changed from 460.19 to 462.42, a change of - 5.20; Singapore Gasoil M1 changed from 78.51 to 80.00, a change of - 0.06; Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 changed from - 0.90 to 0.96, a change of - 0.57; Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed from - 120.78 to - 131.40, a change of - 6.58. [1] Spot Data - From April 10 - 16, 2025, the FOB price of Singapore 380cst changed from 392.53 to 416.99, a change of - 0.21; FOB VLSFO changed from 466.60 to 470.33, a change of - 1.74; the 380 basis changed from - 3.50 to - 0.55, a change of 0.25; the high - sulfur domestic - foreign spread changed from 10.3 to 7.3, a change of - 0.1; the low - sulfur domestic - foreign spread changed from 4.7 to 4.1, a change of 0.6. [2] Domestic Fuel Oil Data FU Data - From April 10 - 16, 2025, the price of FU 01 changed from 2683 to 2637, a change of - 17; FU 05 changed from 2976 to 3016, a change of - 77; FU 09 changed from 2794 to 2758, a change of - 33; FU 01 - 05 changed from - 293 to - 379, a change of 60; FU 05 - 09 changed from 182 to 258, a change of - 44; FU 09 - 01 changed from 111 to 121, a change of - 16. [2] LU Data - From April 10 - 16, 2025, the price of LU 01 changed from 3338 to 3262, a change of - 57; LU 05 changed from 3409 to 3350, a change of - 99; LU 09 changed from 3362 to 3274, a change of - 63; LU 01 - 05 changed from - 71 to - 88, a change of 42; LU 05 - 09 changed from 47 to 76, a change of - 36; LU 09 - 01 changed from 24 to 12, a change of - 6. [3]