燃料油早报 | Un Art Do ITL | | --- | | SOURCE POINT | | ADDRESS | | 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/05 | | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/12/25 | 331.98 | 379.54 | -9.56 | 607.21 | -227.67 | - | 47.56 | | 2025/12/26 | 326.77 | 375.35 | -9.35 | 599.96 | -224.61 | 22.21 | 48.58 | | 2025/12/29 | 328.49 | 376.75 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bearish on the fuel oil market [3][8] Core观点 - This week, the 380 cracking spread weakened, the month spread oscillated at a low level, the basis oscillated at a low level, the high - sulfur cracking spread in Europe weakened, and the high - sulfur EW continued to strengthen. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore oscillated at a low level, the month spread oscillated at a historical low level, and the 5GO recovered as diesel weakened. In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil inventory increased, the high - sulfur floating storage decreased, the residual oil inventory in Fujairah decreased, the high - sulfur floating storage decreased significantly, the high - sulfur floating storage in Europe decreased slightly, and the high - sulfur floating storage in the US increased slightly. The low - sulfur floating storage in Singapore decreased, and the low - sulfur floating storage in Europe increased. Global residual oil entered the off - season for inventory accumulation. The external market cracking spread should pay attention to crude oil fluctuations, and there is no improvement in the spot market. The low - sulfur valuation is low but there is no driving force [3][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 22 to 26, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by 5.21, the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased by 4.19, the Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased by 0.21, the Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased by 7.25, the Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 increased by 3.06, and the Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by 1.02 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 22 to 26, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 0.57, the price of Singapore 180cst M1 increased by 0.32, the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 increased by 1.22, the price of Singapore GO M1 decreased by 0.15, the Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased by 0.20, and the Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 increased by 2.33 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From December 22 to 26, 2025, the FOB 380cst price and FOB VLSFO price data have no clear overall change trend, the 380 basis decreased from - 2.80 to - 1.60, and the high - sulfur and low - sulfur internal and external price difference data are incomplete [2] Domestic FU Data - From December 22 to 26, 2025, FU 01 increased by 27, FU 05 increased by 3, FU 09 increased by 2, FU 01 - 05 increased by 24, FU 05 - 09 increased by 1, and FU 09 - 01 decreased by 25 [2] Domestic LU Data - From December 22 to 26, 2025, LU 01 increased by 141, LU 05 decreased by 2, LU 09 increased by 1, LU 01 - 05 increased by 143, LU 05 - 09 decreased by 3, and LU 09 - 01 decreased by 140 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking in Singapore fluctuated, the monthly spread strengthened slightly, the basis weakened, the HSFO cracking in Europe declined, and the EW strengthened this week. The 0.5% cracking in Singapore rebounded, the monthly spread fluctuated, and the basis oscillated at a low level. In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil decreased slightly, ARA's residual oil increased, Fujairah's residual oil increased, and EIA's residual oil inventory remained flat. The price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the external market rebounded. Singapore's high - sulfur was supported by EW and refinery purchases, but the spot basis weakened rapidly. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern in the short term, and the short - term downward space for low - sulfur is limited [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data (Swap M1) - From November 6th to 12th, the price of 3.5% HSF decreased by 16.44, the price of 0.5% VLS decreased by 17.53, the HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.18, the 10ppm Gasoil decreased by 3.88, the VLSFO - Gasoil decreased by 21.41, the LGO - Brent M1 remained unchanged, and the VLSFO - HSFO decreased by 1.09 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Data (Swap M1) - From November 6th to 12th, the price of 380cst increased by 3.78, the price of 180cst increased by 5.56, the price of VLSFO increased by 3.60, the price of Gasoil increased by 2.64, the 380cst - Brent M1 decreased by 0.58, and the VLSFO - Gasoil decreased by 15.93 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From November 6th to 12th, the FOB price of 380cst increased by 2.48, the FOB price of VLSFO increased by 2.73, the 380 basis decreased by 0.01, the high - sulfur internal - external price difference increased by 1.4, and the low - sulfur internal - external price difference decreased by 4.2 [2] Domestic FU Data - From November 6th to 12th, the price of FU 01 increased by 22, the price of FU 05 increased by 18, the price of FU 09 increased by 12, the FU 01 - 05 increased by 4, the FU 05 - 09 increased by 6, and the FU 09 - 01 decreased by 10 [2] Domestic LU Data - From November 6th to 12th, the price of LU 01 increased by 49, the price of LU 05 increased by 42, the price of LU 09 increased by 40, the LU 01 - 05 increased by 7, the LU 05 - 09 increased by 2, and the LU 09 - 01 decreased by 9 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the cracking of 380 fuel oil oscillated, the monthly spread weakened month - on - month, the basis oscillated and weakened, the cracking of European HSFO strengthened, and the EW weakened significantly. The cracking of Singapore 0.5 low - sulfur fuel oil oscillated at a low level, and the monthly spread and basis oscillated at a low level [6]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil inventory increased, floating storage increased, ARA's residual oil inventory decreased, floating storage increased, and EIA's residual oil inventory decreased slightly. In terms of shipments, Russia's residual oil shipments rebounded this week but were still low year - on - year. Overall, Russia's residual oil shipments decreased month - on - month in October. Saudi Arabia's residual oil shipments oscillated at a high level, UAE's shipments decreased month - on - month. Singapore's arrivals were neutral this week, and domestic residual oil arrivals increased month - on - month [6][7]. - This week, the domestic - foreign spread of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rebounded significantly. The external low - sulfur market remained weak, the fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore were poor, but EW and raw material premiums supported the 380 cracking. In the short term, it is in a volatile pattern [7]. 3. Summary by Related Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | Change | | ---- | ---- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | -1.59 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | -4.56 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | 0.58 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 0.66 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -5.22 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 2.43 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | -2.97 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | Change | | ---- | ---- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | -3.82 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | -3.81 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | -1.45 | | Singapore GO M1 | 0.73 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | 0.00 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -6.85 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | Change | | ---- | ---- | | FOB 380cst | -3.99 | | FOB VLSFO | -1.07 | | 380 Basis | 0.00 | | High - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | -0.1 | | Low - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 1.6 | [5] Domestic FU Data | Type | Change | | ---- | ---- | | FU 01 | -21 | | FU 05 | -7 | | FU 09 | -6 | | FU 01 - 05 | -14 | | FU 05 - 09 | -1 | | FU 09 - 01 | 15 | [5] Domestic LU Data | Type | Change | | ---- | ---- | | LU 01 | 7 | | LU 05 | -1 | | LU 09 | -8 | | LU 01 - 05 | 8 | | LU 05 - 09 | 7 | | LU 09 - 01 | -15 | [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - This week, the crack spread of Singapore 380 fuel oil strengthened slightly, the monthly spread declined month - on - month, and the basis fluctuated at a low level. The high - low sulfur price difference is at a historically low level. The crack spread of Singapore 0.5 low - sulfur fuel oil weakened, and the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at historically low levels. [3] - In terms of inventory, Singapore residue oil was de - stocked, the high - sulfur floating storage was higher than the historical average for the same period, and the low - sulfur floating storage increased slightly. Fujeirah's heavy - quality inventory increased significantly to 8,520 thousand tons, the high - sulfur floating storage was de - stocked but still at a historically high level year - on - year. ARA ports were de - stocked, and the inventory was at a historically low level year - on - year. [3][4] - In terms of logistics, the total arrival of domestic fuel oil remained flat, and the arrival of low - sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly. Saudi Arabia's shipments declined month - on - month, and the UAE's shipments increased month - on - month. Recently, the weak fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil continued, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern. High - sulfur fuel oil has started to accumulate inventory globally. The crack spread of Singapore is still supported by procurement demand, but in the medium term, it faces downward pressure due to factors such as Russian sanctions. FU fluctuated mainly and weakened slightly this week. [4] 3) Summaries by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil | Product | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 400.88 | 400.43 | 389.26 | 2.73 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 424.62 | 423.42 | 411.42 | 2.03 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 2.65 | - 2.15 | - 2.31 | 0.54 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 688.86 | 705.25 | 680.86 | 3.19 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 264.24 | - 281.83 | - 269.44 | - 1.16 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 28.32 | 30.55 | 28.62 | 0.32 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 23.74 | 22.99 | 22.16 | - 0.70 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap | Product | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 394.15 | 387.51 | 383.93 | 373.72 | 373.35 | - 0.37 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 402.15 | 394.51 | 389.68 | 380.28 | 378.91 | - 1.37 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 448.43 | 446.68 | 443.72 | 438.46 | 443.70 | 5.24 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 90.28 | 90.91 | 91.15 | 89.63 | 90.58 | 0.95 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 3.30 | - 3.68 | - 3.23 | - 4.56 | - 4.63 | - 0.07 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 219.64 | - 226.05 | - 230.79 | - 224.80 | - 226.59 | - 1.79 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot | Product | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 392.86 | 387.02 | 383.42 | 372.68 | 372.56 | - 0.12 | | FOB VLSFO | 445.23 | 446.25 | 441.88 | 437.28 | 442.83 | 5.55 | | 380 Basis | - 1.35 | - 0.90 | - 1.15 | - 1.80 | - 1.95 | - 0.15 | | High - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 7.9 | 8.1 | 10.2 | 10.4 | 9.1 | - 1.3 | | Low - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 7.2 | 7.6 | 13.4 | 12.6 | 14.3 | 1.7 | [2] Domestic FU | Product | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2814 | 2842 | 2818 | 2796 | 2751 | - 45 | | FU 05 | 2741 | 2772 | 2756 | 2744 | 2713 | - 31 | | FU 09 | 2663 | 2683 | 2675 | 2672 | 2657 | - 15 | | FU 01 - 05 | - | 70 | 62 | 52 | 38 | - 14 | | FU 05 - 09 | 78 | 89 | 81 | 72 | 56 | - 16 | | FU 09 - 01 | - 151 | - 159 | - 143 | - 124 | - 94 | 30 | [2] Domestic LU | Product | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3224 | 3257 | 3273 | 3246 | 3255 | 9 | | LU 05 | 3230 | 3262 | 3237 | 3212 | 3223 | 11 | | LU 09 | 3235 | 3272 | 3262 | 3235 | 3237 | 2 | | LU 01 - 05 | - 6 | - 5 | 36 | 34 | 32 | - 2 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 5 | - 10 | - 25 | - 23 | - 14 | 9 | | LU 09 - 01 | 11 | 15 | - 11 | - 11 | - 18 | - 7 | [3]

Report Core View - This week, the crack spread of Singapore 380 fuel oil strengthened slightly, the monthly spread declined month-on-month, and the basis fluctuated at a low level. The high-low sulfur spread is at a historically low level year-on-year. The crack spread of Singapore 0.5 low-sulfur fuel oil weakened, and the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at historically low levels. In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil inventory decreased, the high-sulfur floating storage is higher than the historical average for the same period, and the low-sulfur floating storage increased slightly. The heavy oil inventory in Fujairah increased significantly to 8,520 thousand tons. The high-sulfur floating storage decreased but is still at a historically high level year-on-year. The ARA port's inventory decreased and is at a historically low level year-on-year. In terms of logistics, the total arrival of domestic fuel oil remained flat, and the arrival of low-sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly. Saudi Arabia's shipments declined month-on-month, while the UAE's shipments increased month-on-month. Recently, the weak fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil continued, and it is expected to maintain a low-level oscillation pattern. The global high-sulfur fuel oil inventory began to accumulate. The crack spread of Singapore's high-sulfur fuel oil is still supported by purchasing demand, but it faces downward pressure in the medium term due to factors such as sanctions on Russia. The internal and external prices of FU oscillated mainly and weakened slightly this week. [4][5] Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/10/23 | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 396.75 | 400.88 | 400.43 | 389.26 | 390.21 | 0.95 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 420.88 | 424.62 | 423.42 | 411.42 | 415.93 | 4.51 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -2.55 | -2.65 | -2.15 | -2.31 | -2.85 | -0.54 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 678.26 | 688.86 | 705.25 | 680.86 | 688.80 | 7.94 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -257.38 | -264.24 | -281.83 | -269.44 | -272.87 | -3.43 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 26.90 | 28.32 | 30.55 | 28.62 | 29.11 | 0.49 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 24.13 | 23.74 | 22.99 | 22.16 | 25.72 | 3.56 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/10/23 | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 384.53 | 394.15 | 387.51 | 383.93 | 378.21 | -5.72 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 392.53 | 402.15 | 394.51 | 389.68 | 384.21 | -5.47 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 442.26 | 448.43 | 446.68 | 443.72 | 445.43 | 1.71 | | Singapore GO M1 | 88.08 | 90.28 | 90.91 | 91.15 | 91.38 | 0.23 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -3.87 | -3.30 | -3.68 | -3.23 | -4.74 | -1.51 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -209.53 | -219.64 | -226.05 | -230.79 | -230.78 | 0.01 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/10/23 | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 384.00 | 392.86 | 387.02 | 383.42 | 372.68 | -10.74 | | FOB VLSFO | 438.50 | 445.23 | 446.25 | 441.88 | 437.28 | -4.60 | | 380 Basis | -0.73 | -1.35 | -0.90 | -1.15 | -1.80 | -0.65 | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 8.6 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 10.2 | 10.4 | 0.2 | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 6.9 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 13.4 | 12.6 | -0.8 | [3] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/10/23 | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2752 | 2814 | 2842 | 2818 | 2796 | -22 | | FU 05 | 2701 | 2741 | 2772 | 2756 | 2744 | -12 | | FU 09 | 2640 | 2663 | 2683 | 2675 | 2672 | -3 | | FU 01 - 05 | 51 | - | 70 | 62 | 52 | -10 | | FU 05 - 09 | 61 | 78 | 89 | 81 | 72 | -9 | | FU 09 - 01 | -112 | -151 | -159 | -143 | -124 | 19 | [3] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/10/23 | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3193 | 3224 | 3257 | 3273 | 3246 | -27 | | LU 05 | 3220 | 3230 | 3262 | 3237 | 3212 | -25 | | LU 09 | 3234 | 3235 | 3272 | 3262 | 3235 | -27 | | LU 01 - 05 | -27 | -6 | -5 | 36 | 34 | -2 | | LU 05 - 09 | -14 | -5 | -10 | -25 | -23 | 2 | | LU 09 - 01 | 41 | 11 | 15 | -11 | -11 | 0 | [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the cracking of Singapore 380 fuel oil strengthened slightly, the monthly spread declined month-on-month, and the basis fluctuated at a low level. The high-low sulfur spread is at a historically low level year-on-year. The cracking of Singapore 0.5 low-sulfur fuel oil weakened, and the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at historically low levels. In terms of inventory, Singapore residual oil was destocked, the high-sulfur floating storage was higher than the historical average for the same period, and the low-sulfur floating storage increased slightly. Fujeirah's heavy inventory increased significantly to 8,520 thousand tons, the high-sulfur floating storage was destocked but still at a historically high level year-on-year. ARA ports were destocked, and the inventory was at a historically low level year-on-year. In terms of logistics, the total arrival of domestic fuel oil remained flat, and the arrival of low-sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly. Saudi Arabia's shipments declined month-on-month, while the UAE's shipments increased month-on-month. Recently, the weak fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil continued, and it is expected to maintain a low-level fluctuation pattern. High-sulfur fuel oil has started to accumulate inventory globally. The cracking of Singapore fuel oil is still supported by purchasing demand, but it faces downward pressure in the medium term due to factors such as Russian sanctions. FU fluctuated mainly and weakened slightly this week [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From October 21 - 27, 2025, for Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, the price changed by -1.59; for Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, it changed by -2.85; for Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1, it changed by 0.66; for Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, it changed by 16.55; for Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1, it changed by -19.40; for LGO - Brent M1, it changed by 2.23; for Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1, it changed by -1.26 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Data - From October 21 - 27, 2025, for Singapore 380cst M1, the price changed by -6.64; for Singapore 180cst M1, it changed by -7.64; for Singapore VLSFO M1, it changed by -1.75; for Singapore GO M1, it changed by 0.63; for Singapore 380cst - Brent M1, it changed by 0.01; for Singapore VLSFO - GO M1, it changed by -6.41 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot and Domestic FU Data - From October 21 - 27, 2025, for Singapore FOB 380cst, the price changed by -5.84; for FOB VLSFO, it changed by 1.02; for 380 basis, it changed by 0.45; for high-sulfur internal - external spread, it changed by 0.2; for low-sulfur internal - external spread, it changed by 0.4. For domestic FU 01, it changed by 28; for FU 05, it changed by 31; for FU 09, it changed by 20; for FU 01 - 05 (not fully available), the change situation is not clear; for FU 05 - 09, it changed by 11; for FU 09 - 01, it changed by -8 [2] Domestic LU Data - From October 21 - 27, 2025, for domestic LU 01, the price changed by 33; for LU 05, it changed by 32; for LU 09, it changed by 37; for LU 01 - 05, it changed by 1; for LU 05 - 09, it changed by -5; for LU 09 - 01, it changed by 4 [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated at a high level. The near - month spread weakened, the basis weakened month - on - month, the EW spread continued to weaken, the high - sulfur in the ARA region strengthened, and the FU internal - external spread oscillated between 8 - 10 US dollars. The low - sulfur cracking weakened month - on - month but was at a historical low year - on - year. The month - spread weakened slightly, and the LU internal - external spread dropped to 7 - 8 US dollars. The basis stabilized in the second half of the week. From a fundamental perspective, Singapore's residue oil inventory increased, at a historical high year - on - year. The floating storage inventory stabilized after destocking, also at a high level year - on - year. The residue oil in the ARA region increased slightly, with inventory at a historical low for the same period. The EIA residue oil inventory increased slightly at a low level. The inventory in Fujairah increased month - on - month, at a low level year - on - year. The high - sulfur floating storage in the Middle East increased significantly this week. Recently, the high - sulfur spot in Singapore has weakened, but the cracking is supported by raw material procurement, with limited short - term downside. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain an oscillating pattern. The FU internal - external spread should be viewed within a range recently, and the end - point of the 01 contract is bearish. This week, the LU futures remained weak. In the fourth quarter, the overseas low - sulfur market has a short - selling pattern on rallies, and the internal - external spread should focus on quota usage [3][6] Group 3: Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the 3.5% HSF O swap M1 in Rotterdam increased from 367.92 to 395.67, a change of 21.78; the 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased from 393.96 to 420.75, a change of 18.09; the HSFO - Brent M1 changed from - 2.92 to - 2.95, a change of 0.17; the 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased from 607.89 to 677.93, a change of 45.67; the VLSFO - GO M1 changed from - 213.93 to - 257.18, a change of - 27.58; the VLSFO - H SFO M1 changed from 22.57 to 25.08, a change of 2.48; the VLSFO - H SFO M1 spread changed from 26.04 to 25.08, a change of - 3.69 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the Singapore 380cst M1 increased from 359.76 to 384.53, a change of 17.57; the Singapore 180cst M1 increased from 369.96 to 392.53, a change of 17.57; the Singapore VLSFO M1 increased from 420.01 to 442.26, a change of 10.97; the Singapore GO M1 increased from 80.60 to 88.08, a change of 4.36; the Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 changed from - 3.71 to - 3.34, a change of 0.76; the Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 changed from - 176.43 to - 209.53, a change of - 21.29 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the FOB 380cst in Singapore increased from 361.29 to 384.00, a change of 19.30; the FOB VLSFO increased from 421.95 to 438.50, a change of 11.20; the 380 basis changed from - 0.65 to - 0.73, a change of 0.73; the high - sulfur internal - external spread remained unchanged at 8.9; the low - sulfur internal - external spread increased from 6.8 to 6.9, a change of 0.1 [2] Domestic FU Data - From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the FU 01 increased from 2627 to 2752, a change of 61; the FU 05 increased from 2600 to 2701, a change of 53; the FU 09 increased from 2560 to 2640, a change of 44; the FU 01 - 05 spread increased from 27 to 51, a change of 8; the FU 05 - 09 spread increased from 40 to 61, a change of 9; the FU 09 - 01 spread changed from - 67 to - 112, a change of - 17 [2] Domestic LU Data - From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the LU 01 increased from 3064 to 3193, a change of 57; the LU 05 increased from 3099 to 3220, a change of 62; the LU 09 increased from 3110 to 3234, a change of 59; the LU 01 - 05 spread changed from - 35 to - 27, a change of - 5; the LU 05 - 09 spread changed from - 11 to - 14, a change of 3; the LU 09 - 01 spread changed from 46 to 41, a change of 2 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated at a high level, the near - month spread weakened, the basis fluctuated at a low level, the EW spread weakened rapidly, the high - sulfur in the ARA region strengthened, and the FU internal - external spread fluctuated between 8 - 10 US dollars. The low - sulfur cracking rebounded slightly but was at a historical low compared to the same period. The spread was weakly sorted, the LU internal - external spread fell to 7 - 9 US dollars, and the MF0.5 basis weakened [3]. - From a fundamental perspective, Singapore's residue oil inventory decreased and was at a high level compared to the same period. The floating storage decreased significantly. ARA's residue oil inventory decreased at a historical low during the same period. EIA's residue oil inventory slightly increased at a low level, and Fujeirah slightly increased its inventory and was at a low level compared to the same period. The Middle East's high - sulfur floating storage decreased significantly this week. Recently, the high - sulfur spot in Singapore has weakened, and the cracking is supported by raw material procurement. The short - term downward space is limited. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain an oscillating pattern, and the FU internal - external spread should be viewed within a range. This week, the LU market was still weak. The issuance of the third batch of export quotas met expectations, and the external MF0.5 basis weakened again. In the fourth quarter, the LU internal - external spread can be expanded when the price is low. Pay attention to the quota usage [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Fuel Oil Price Data - **Rotterdam**: From October 10th to 16th, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by 3.17, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased by 3.55, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.28, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased by 0.38. The LGO - Brent M1 remained unchanged [1]. - **Singapore**: From October 10th to 16th, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 3.22, Singapore 180cst M1 increased by 3.98, and Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased by 1.04. The Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased by 0.17 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot - From October 10th to 16th, 2025, the FOB 380cst price increased by 1.62, the FOB VLSFO price decreased by 1.67, the 380 basis increased by 0.25, the high - sulfur internal - external spread increased by 0.8, and the low - sulfur internal - external spread decreased by 0.6 [2]. Domestic FU - From October 10th to 16th, 2025, FU 01 increased by 11, FU 05 increased by 5, FU 09 increased by 8, FU 01 - 05 increased by 6, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 3, and FU 09 - 01 decreased by 3 [2]. Domestic LU - From October 10th to 16th, 2025, LU 01 decreased by 1, LU 05 increased by 11, LU 09 increased by 23, LU 01 - 05 decreased by 12, LU 05 - 09 decreased by 12, and LU 09 - 01 increased by 24 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur crack spread fluctuated and declined, the near-month spread decreased, and the EW continued to weaken. The 380 8-9 month spread weakened to $1.75, the basis weakened and then fluctuated, the FU09 internal and external spread rebounded slightly, and the domestic delivery volume was large, maintaining a loose pattern. The Singapore 0.5 crack spread declined slightly, the month spread weakened, and it fluctuated around $4.5 for the 8-9 month. The LU internal and external spread weakened slightly and then fluctuated, with the 09 around $16. [6][7] - This week, Singapore's onshore inventory increased significantly, the window was under delivery pressure, and the near-month contract was under pressure. Saudi Arabia's shipments increased month-on-month. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, Egypt's net imports reached a new high, and the high-sulfur supply and demand were still in the peak season. However, the East-West and internal-external spreads have quickly declined. The external low-sulfur valuation is high, and the LU internal and external spread is running at a high level. Attention should be paid to the domestic production situation. [7] - The Singapore Hi-5 spread reached a new high this year, both 380cst and VLSFO weakened. The domestic FU internal and external spread rebounded slightly, and the LU valuation is high. Attention can be paid to the short-term valuation regression opportunity of FU-LU, with the risk being the continuous weakening of the external 380cst. [7] Summary by Related Content Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From July 15 to July 21, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased from $412.56 to $422.21, a change of $2.92; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased from $466.16 to $469.91, a change of -$1.96; the Rotterdam HSFO-Brent M1 increased from -$3.12 to -$1.66, a change of $0.90; etc. [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From July 15 to July 21, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased from $404.43 to $411.16, a change of -$0.23; the price of Singapore 180cst M1 increased from $414.93 to $425.21, a change of $1.57; the Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased from $496.15 to $493.65, a change of -$3.65; etc. [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From July 15 to July 21, 2025, the FOB 380cst price increased from $395.38 to $404.97, a change of $0.39; the FOB VLSFO price decreased from $501.64 to $497.55, a change of -$3.97; the 380 basis increased from -$6.98 to -$6.11, a change of $0.53; etc. [5] Domestic FU Data - From July 15 to July 21, 2025, the price of FU 01 decreased from 2828 to 2886, a change of -1; the price of FU 05 increased from 2788 to 2828, a change of 7; the price of FU 09 increased from 2840 to 2924, a change of 12; etc. [5] Domestic LU Data - From July 15 to July 21, 2025, the price of LU 01 decreased from 3529 to 3550, a change of -20; the price of LU 05 remained unchanged at 3500; the price of LU 09 decreased from 3639 to 3603, a change of -31; etc. [6]