China's growth looks set to decelerate in the second half of the year after a resilient first half. As export front loading fades and retail sales remain stuck at mid-single digits, showing little sign of immediate recovery in non subsidized sectors. But in this downturn, gold has surged and along with it, pure gold jewelers like Liverpool.Bettencourt estimates that China's luxury market sales last year had plunged by 20%, but with gold bucked the trend. Because gold jewellery is not just a symbol of presti ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is influenced by U.S. President Trump's call for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which could further impact market dynamics and gold demand [1][5]. Price Movements - On July 28, spot gold prices fell to $3310 per ounce, marking the first drop since July 17 [1]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices also decreased, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang seeing reductions in their gold prices [1][2]. - As of July 29, the price of gold jewelry from various brands has fallen below 1000 yuan per gram, with specific prices reported as follows: - Chow Sang Sang: 978 yuan per gram (down 12 yuan) - Lao Feng Xiang: 998 yuan per gram (down 2 yuan) - Others remained stable or saw minor changes [2][3]. Market Trends - The global gold price saw significant increases earlier in the year due to rising geopolitical tensions, with the London spot gold price rising 24.31% year-to-date as of June 30 [3]. - The average price of gold in the first half of 2025 was reported at $3066.59 per ounce, a 39.21% increase compared to the same period last year [3]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a similar trend, with Au9999 gold closing at 764.43 yuan per gram, up 24.50% year-to-date [3]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while short-term speculative demand has weakened, long-term support from central bank purchases and financial investments may sustain gold prices [5]. - There is a possibility that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates more than expected, which could lead to a further increase in gold prices by over 10% by the end of the year [5].

Core Insights - The recent high volatility in international and domestic gold prices has led to an increase in investor demand for gold recycling [1] - The emergence of smart gold recycling machines, resembling ATMs, offers a convenient and flexible option for consumers to recycle gold [2] - Different recycling channels have varying rules and fees, prompting consumers to compare options before making decisions [3] Market Phenomenon - Smart gold recycling machines provide a visualized detection process and allow for both self-service recycling and purchasing of gold [2] - The machines accept gold items with a gold content of over 50% and a minimum weight of 3 grams, ensuring that only the gold portion is assessed for purity [2] - The final settlement price for recycled gold is determined after melting and weighing, similar to traditional gold store processes [2] Recycling Channel Differences - The gold recycling market has seen a significant increase in activity, with some businesses reporting a surge of over 200% in transaction volume [3] - Various entities, including banks, jewelry stores, and specialized recycling institutions, offer gold recycling services, each with distinct rules regarding pricing and fees [3] - Consumers are advised to choose reputable channels for selling gold and to compare different options carefully to avoid losses [3] Investment Considerations - Most gold recycling institutions base their pricing on real-time rates from the Shanghai Gold Exchange and international gold prices, with a typical price difference of 1% to 2% [5] - Industry experts recommend that investors verify the weight and purity of gold on-site and choose transparent channels for recycling [5] - The active gold recycling business reflects market responses to gold price fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of rational assessment and risk prevention in investment decisions [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious stance on inflation forecasts while awaiting further policy actions [3][19]. Core Insights - The year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive in June, marking a surprise after four consecutive negative readings, which may indicate potential reflation in China [3][4]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) deflation deepened unexpectedly, highlighting a divergence in price trends among different sectors, particularly between auto and steel prices [4][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side reforms (SSR2.0) and the role of demand in shaping inflation expectations [19]. Summary by Sections CPI Analysis - The CPI reading for June was +0.0% YoY, compared to a prior reading of -0.1% YoY, with a sequential change of -0.1% MoM [3][5]. - Significant price increases were noted in the "other goods and services" category, which includes jewelry, with a +8.1% YoY change [5][8]. - Core inflation rose by +0.7% YoY, with core goods prices increasing by 0.9% YoY [5][19]. PPI Analysis - The PPI reading was -3.6% YoY, contrasting with market expectations of a narrower contraction [4][19]. - The PPI for the auto sector showed stabilization, while ferrous metals and non-metallic minerals reported negative changes, indicating a mixed outlook for SSR2.0 candidates [4][19]. Supply Side Reform Insights - The report suggests that the upcoming Politburo meeting and action plans from relevant ministries will be crucial for future inflation trajectories [19]. - The divergence in price trends between sectors like steel and auto underscores the need for targeted demand-side policies [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating on Titan due to demand uncertainty in FY26E caused by elevated gold prices and rich valuation [5][41]. Core Insights - UBS's Basic Materials team forecasts gold prices to rise to US$3,500 in 2026, driven by tariff uncertainty, weak growth, high inflation, and geopolitical risks [2][9]. - India's gold demand is expected to moderate to approximately 725 tonnes in FY26, a 7% year-on-year decline, before recovering to 800 tonnes in FY27 as household consumption stabilizes [4][23]. - Indian households hold the largest stock of gold globally, estimated at 25,000 tonnes, valued at around US$2.4 trillion, which is 56% of FY26 nominal GDP [3][13]. Summary by Sections Gold Price Forecast - Gold prices are projected to increase significantly, with annual averages expected to reach US$3,500 in 2026, reflecting a 23% increase from previous estimates [12]. Consumer Demand for Gold - Consumer demand for gold in India is anticipated to soften in FY26, particularly in jewellery, which constitutes 70% of total demand, expected to decline by 5-10% year-on-year [4][23]. - Retail investment demand remains strong, with a notable increase in gold bars and coins, driven by gold's performance as a safe-haven asset [20]. Economic Context - India's net gold imports are projected to remain high at US$55 billion to US$60 billion in FY26/27, accounting for 1.2% of GDP, despite a manageable current account deficit [40]. - The report highlights that the upcoming pay boost of approximately US$55 billion could support household consumption and stabilize gold demand [39][23]. Gold Mobilization Efforts - Policy initiatives aimed at mobilizing gold for productive uses have seen limited success, with households primarily using gold as collateral for loans [42][45]. - The Gold Monetization Scheme and Sovereign Gold Bonds have not achieved significant participation, leading to a discontinuation of some programs [44][45]. Company-Specific Insights - Titan is expected to pursue aggressive network expansion to capture market share as the market transitions from unorganised to organised [5][41]. - The report notes that while Titan's long-term proposition is favorable, the current demand uncertainty warrants a Neutral rating [5][41].

Group 1 - International gold prices have rebounded, with spot gold closing up nearly 2% and COMEX gold also showing a similar increase, reaching $3317 per ounce [1][3] - Domestic gold brand prices have risen significantly, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook Jewelry both quoting gold at 1008 CNY per gram, an increase of 26 CNY from the previous day [3] - The recent surge in gold prices has caught consumers off guard, with many expressing disappointment over the unexpected rise after anticipating further declines [3] Group 2 - The recent price adjustments in gold are attributed to a joint statement from the US and China following high-level economic talks, which boosted market risk appetite and put pressure on gold prices [4] - There has been a noticeable outflow from global gold ETFs since late April, influenced by trade conflicts, geopolitical tensions, and a cooling of expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [4] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to declining dollar credibility, the onset of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and continued purchases by global central banks [4]

Oil Market - International oil prices increased by over 2% for the week, with WTI crude futures rising by 2.41% and Brent crude futures by 2.35% [1] - Traders are closely monitoring the latest developments in US-Iran nuclear negotiations, which have alleviated concerns about potential increases in oil supply [1] - The rebound in oil prices on Friday saw both WTI and Brent futures rise approximately 1.4% [1] Gold Market - International gold prices fell by over 1.2% on the 16th, with a cumulative decline of nearly 4.7% for the week, marking the worst weekly performance in six months [2] - The June gold futures price settled at $3187.2 per ounce, down 1.22% on Friday, as investor demand for safe-haven assets was impacted by the resumption of Russia-Ukraine negotiations [2] - As of May 16, spot gold prices dropped to below $3160 per ounce, reflecting a daily decline of 2.56% [2] Market Sentiment - The easing of trade tensions between the US and China has suppressed market risk aversion, contributing to the decline in gold prices [2] - Social media discussions indicate widespread concern among investors regarding losses from recent gold price drops, with many expressing frustration over their investments [10][11] - Analysts from Citigroup have revised their three-month gold price target down from $3500 to $3150 per ounce, citing a 10% reduction due to breakthroughs in global tariff negotiations [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in gold prices due to international market fluctuations, with domestic gold jewelry prices dropping below 1,000 yuan per gram [1][6][10] - On May 12, international gold futures fell by 3.06%, closing at $3,241.80 per ounce, while spot gold dropped nearly 3%, falling below the $3,250 mark [3][10] - The recent trend shows that spot gold has decreased in four out of the last five trading days, with a notable drop of 2.73% on May 12, where it lost up to $118 per ounce during trading [6][10] Group 2 - The market sentiment has shifted due to easing geopolitical tensions and trade agreements between the US and UK, leading to a reduction in safe-haven demand for gold [10][12] - Despite short-term volatility, global central bank gold purchases remain strong, with the World Gold Council reporting a net purchase of 244 tons in Q1 2025 [12][14] - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves to 7.377 million ounces as of the end of April, marking a continuous increase for six months [13] Group 3 - Analysts predict that the current high volatility in gold prices may lead to a correction, with potential upward pressure on inflation in the US later this year, which could enhance gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [14] - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish long-term outlook on gold, forecasting that spot gold prices could reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of the year and $4,000 by mid-2026 [14]

Group 1 - On May 12, international gold prices experienced significant declines, with London gold prices dropping below $3,225 per ounce, a stark contrast to the previous month's peak of over $3,500 per ounce [1] - Domestic gold prices also fell, with Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au9999 gold price decreasing by 26.5 yuan to 759 yuan per gram, and gold-related stocks in the A-share market collectively declining [1] - The sales of gold jewelry surged during the recent holiday period, with a reported increase of over 53% in sales of gold jewelry and a 50% rise in investment gold bars compared to the previous year [2] Group 2 - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to progress in US-China trade talks, which has reduced market risk aversion, leading to price adjustments [5] - As of April, China's gold reserves increased to 73.77 million ounces, marking a continuous six-month increase, with a total growth of nearly 100 million ounces over the past six months [9] - Analysts suggest that despite the recent drop, gold prices are expected to trend upwards in the future, and recommend a gradual investment strategy to capitalize on potential price rebounds [10]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant increase in gold prices, with spot gold reaching a high of $3,387.09 per ounce, marking a daily increase of 1.08% [1] - COMEX gold futures also saw a rise, reported at $3,378.00 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.68% [1] - The price of gold jewelry has increased by over 20 to 200 yuan compared to the holiday period [1] Group 2 - Physical gold prices have risen from the low prices during the May Day holiday, with major retailers like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang pricing gold at 1,026 yuan per gram, reflecting a rise of 2.81% [5] - The price of gold at various retailers has shown significant increases overnight, with some products rising by over 20 to 200 yuan [5] - The gold price in the domestic market reached a high of 1,061 yuan per gram on April 22, 2023 [7] Group 3 - The gold price has seen a cumulative increase of over 26% this year, with the World Gold Council reporting that global gold prices broke historical highs 20 times in the first quarter [9] - Despite the rising gold prices, global gold jewelry consumption has decreased by 21% year-on-year, reaching the lowest level since 2020 [9] - There has been a significant increase in gold investment demand, with a total of 551.9 tons in the first quarter, representing a year-on-year increase of 170% [9]