【#水贝买金火爆商家忙到没时间吃饭#"开单到手酸"】#水贝商户称春节营业额超平时一个月# 春节期 间，深圳水贝黄金市场火爆，有40多家商户坚守，每天客流量8到9千人，2月21日，营业商户增加到60 多家，客流量突破一万人。有部分商户表示，这几天的营业额超过了平时一个月的营业额，商户"开单 到手酸、没时间吃饭"，"时间就是金钱，效率就是生命"深圳这句话的含金量还在上升！祝大家 2026"火"出天际！#记者水贝采访被催抓紧时间要做生意#（第一现场） 转自：今晚报 （来源：今晚报） ...

黄金价格突飞猛进，金饰的价格越来越高，涉及到金子的话题居高不下。但是随着黄金价格站上每克千元之上后，那些刚性买金饰的民众也就犯难了！例 如结婚和送礼，这么贵重的黄金饰品，有可能到底有套路，到底是自己买金子去加工店挑花样去打？还是直接去金饰店买制作好的各类金饰？ 黄金加工行业中最让人担心的，其实消费者就是觉得又被收了加工费，最后还少了重量，但是这也是防不胜防，加工过程中需要溶解、需要摩擦，黄金总 是在不知不觉中，有微小部分变成了商家口中的所谓生活垃圾。买的哪有卖的精，不过客观评价，加工店生意火爆，也与着现在一些品牌金饰店的超额利 杭州一家打金店的老板面对记者采访，毫不避讳的讲出了自己利用潜规则赚取的暴利。现在黄金正处于高价，加工金首饰的人非常多，加工店的生意非常 好。没想到仅仅一个月，他就从所谓金店的生活垃圾中回收了1700克黄金，也就是说差不多不到200万。被采访的时候喜笑颜开，这无疑是一笔极其丰厚 的利润。 这是凡尔赛式的自夸，还是赤裸裸的消费欺诈？打金店到底赚的是什么钱？加工费赚到手了，没想到还赚下了这么多黄金的加工损耗！但是这些加工损耗 到底应该归属于金店还是归属于消费者呢？这无疑又一次掀开了古老的黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - Titan Co., India's leading jewellery maker, is experiencing a decline in customer demand due to record-high gold prices, which is impacting the second-largest bullion market in the world [1] Company Summary - Titan Co. is facing cautious consumer behavior as high gold prices are leading to reduced demand for jewellery [1] Industry Summary - The jewellery market in India, being the second-largest bullion market globally, is currently affected by the rising gold prices, which are dampening overall demand [1]

Group 1 - Precious metals experienced a sudden drop in early trading on February 5, with domestic gold futures falling over 3% to a low of 1077.02 CNY per gram and silver futures dropping over 18% to a low of 18500 CNY per kilogram [1] - On the international front, COMEX gold futures fell over 3% to a low of 4805 USD per ounce, while COMEX silver futures dropped over 13% to a low of 73.415 USD per ounce [2] - The domestic A-share precious metals sector saw significant declines, with companies like Hunan Gold and Hunan Silver hitting the daily limit down, and Xiaocheng Technology dropping over 14% at one point [6] Group 2 - The National Investment Silver LOF resumed trading and hit the daily limit down for the fourth consecutive day, with the latest premium rate at 37.13% [4] - Multiple domestic gold and jewelry brands reported a decrease in the price of gold jewelry, with Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry priced at 1558 CNY per gram, down 42 CNY from the previous day [8]

Market Overview - Gold and silver experienced significant declines, with spot gold falling as much as 6.3% and silver plunging up to 11.9% during Asian trading hours on Monday [1] - The previous session saw the steepest intraday loss on record for silver, indicating extreme volatility in the precious metals market [1] Investor Sentiment - Robert Gottlieb, a former precious metals trader, noted that market liquidity is constrained due to a reluctance to take further risks, suggesting that the market is currently crowded with trades [2] - The surge in precious metals prices was driven by geopolitical concerns, currency debasement, and the Federal Reserve's independence, with significant buying from Chinese speculators contributing to the rally [2] Chinese Market Dynamics - The behavior of Chinese investors in buying dips will be crucial in determining market direction following the recent selloff [3] - Despite a fall in the Shanghai benchmark price, it continues to trade at a premium over international prices, with increased retail demand expected ahead of the Lunar New Year [3][4] Price Movements and Economic Factors - The selloff was triggered by the nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, which strengthened the dollar and negatively impacted gold and silver prices [5] - Precious metals were already facing extreme volatility, with a record wave of call option purchases reinforcing upward price momentum [6] Supply and Demand Factors - In the silver market, hot money inflows in China have led to domestic supply tightness, but this may ease as investment demand diminishes due to the recent price rout [7] - As of 12:15 p.m. Singapore time, gold was priced at $4,671.53 per ounce, down 4.6%, while silver declined to $78.86, a drop of 7.4% [8]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced a significant drop in prices, with gold falling from 1252 CNY/g to 1142 CNY/g in a matter of minutes, marking a decline of over 9% on January 30, the largest single-day drop since 1983 [1][16]. Market Reaction - Following the price drop, many investors rushed to sell their gold holdings, with some reporting substantial profits from timely sales [1][5]. - The Shenzhen Shui Bei market saw a surge in activity, with some vendors selling gold bars worth millions in a single day, while others faced stock shortages due to high demand [3][8]. Price Trends - On February 1, gold prices were reported at 1262 CNY/g, with a recovery price of 1080 CNY/g, while silver prices were at 30.6 CNY/g, down from previous highs [5][10]. - The price of gold jewelry also saw a significant decline, with major brands reporting drops of up to 160 CNY/g within two days [14]. Investor Behavior - Some consumers opted to buy gold at lower prices, believing in its long-term value, while others were quick to sell due to market volatility [6][12]. - The market showed a mix of panic selling and opportunistic buying, with many investors expressing uncertainty about future price movements [8][10]. Institutional Response - Several banks have increased risk assessments for clients engaging in gold transactions, reflecting heightened market volatility and uncertainty [15]. - Analysts noted that the recent price drop was driven by an overheated market and external factors such as declines in the stock market, particularly following disappointing earnings reports from major companies [16].

Market Overview - The precious metals market experienced extreme volatility, with international gold prices plummeting from historical highs, leading to significant impacts on domestic futures, stocks, funds, and consumer markets [1] - On January 30, international gold prices fell sharply, losing over 11% in a single day, while silver prices dropped by 31.37%, marking the worst single-day performance since March 1980 [1] - Weekly performance showed a cumulative decline of 4.71% for gold and 22.50% for silver [1] Price Movements - Domestic gold prices also saw a significant drop, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange spot gold price falling to 1070.01 RMB per gram, a decrease of around 10% [3] - Major brands adjusted their gold jewelry prices from over 1700 RMB per gram to between 1500-1600 RMB per gram [3][4] - For instance, Chow Sang Sang reported a drop in the price of its gold jewelry from 1708 RMB to 1618 RMB per gram within two days [3] Consumer Behavior - Following the price drop, there was a surge in consumer interest in purchasing gold, particularly in Shenzhen's Shui Bei market, where prices fell below 1200 RMB per gram [6] - Many consumers expressed that buying gold now is significantly cheaper compared to previous days [6] Investor Reactions - Investors are increasingly concerned about further declines in precious metal prices, leading many to sell gold and silver items to cash out [10] - Reports indicated that some businesses experienced a rapid decline in gold buyback prices, with a drop from 1142 RMB to 1081 RMB per gram in just one day [10] - The volatility in gold prices has led to a cautious approach among investors, with many hesitating to sell due to fears of missing potential price recoveries [10] Market Supply Dynamics - Some suppliers in Shenzhen's Shui Bei market reported shortages of gold bars, attributing this to the recent price drop and the reluctance of suppliers to sell at lower prices [12] - Suppliers indicated that they are not willing to sell gold bars during such volatile conditions, leading to a decrease in available inventory [12] Banking Sector Adjustments - Several major banks, including ICBC, ABC, and CCB, have adjusted their gold investment services in response to the market volatility, issuing risk warnings to investors [14][16] - ICBC announced changes to its gold accumulation business, including limits on transactions during non-trading days [15] - CCB raised the minimum amount for personal gold accumulation to 1500 RMB, reflecting the increased market risks [16][19]

Summary of Laopu Gold (6181.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Laopu Gold (6181.HK) - **Market Capitalization**: HK$137,507 million (approximately US$17,617 million) [4] Industry Sentiment - **Market Sentiment Shift**: The sentiment towards Laopu has changed from 70% bearish to 30% bullish in the second half of 2025 to 30% bearish and 70% bullish now [1] - **Sales Performance**: Strong year-to-date sales have alleviated earlier concerns regarding growth sustainability [1] Core Debates and Insights 1. Sales and Margin Dynamics - **Earnings Visibility**: Investors find it challenging to forecast earnings due to fluctuating revenue and gross profit margin (GPM) trends amid gold price volatility [2] - **Stock Replenishment**: Increased sales necessitate significant stock replenishment, which may lead to cash shortages [2] - **Net Positive Impact**: The revenue benefits from rising gold prices are expected to outweigh temporary GPM contractions, leading to a net positive impact on earnings [2] - **Fundraising for Inventory**: Fundraising for inventory expansion is seen as revenue-generating, with potential net profits estimated at Rmb600-700 million, representing 13-15% of the estimated net profit for 2025 [2] 2. Promotion-Driven Sales - **Discounting Concerns**: Some investors believe that Laopu's sales success is primarily due to price discounting, which could harm profitability and brand equity [3] - **Clarification on Discounts**: Laopu's official discounts are 5% in stores, with an additional 5% from mall reward points, totaling 10%. Daigou members can achieve up to 12.5% off due to higher reward multipliers [3] - **Consistency in Discounting**: Laopu's discount strategy has been consistent and is in line with other luxury brands in high-end malls [3] 3. Impact of High Gold Prices - **Consumer Demand**: Elevated gold prices may suppress demand in the mass market but could positively affect the high-end segment targeted by Laopu [7] - **Increased Ticket Size**: High prices may encourage customers to purchase larger pieces, potentially capturing wallet share from other luxury brands [7] Investment Outlook - **Target Price**: The target price for Laopu is set at HK$1,119, based on a 24x 2026E P/E ratio, compared to 26x for global luxury peers [9] - **Expected Returns**: Anticipated share price return is 43.8%, with an expected total return of 48.0% [4] Risks - **Key Risks**: 1. Gold price volatility 2. Intense competition 3. Evolving consumer preferences 4. Consumption trade-down amid a soft economy in China 5. Negative free cash flow during expansion [10] Conclusion - Laopu Gold is positioned as a top pick in the China jewelry sector, with a favorable outlook driven by strong sales performance and strategic discounting practices, despite potential risks associated with gold price fluctuations and market competition [8]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Gold and Jewelry Industry Industry Overview - The focus is on the gold and jewelry industry, particularly the investment opportunities amidst fluctuating gold prices [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Gold Price Decline** - The recent drop in gold prices does not affect the long-term logic of the gold and jewelry sector. The business model relies on brand fees linked to annual sales, which provides a stable cash flow that is not significantly impacted by short-term gold price fluctuations [1]. 2. **Gold Price Trends** - The gold price in Shanghai reached a high of 800 yuan in April 2025 and 1250 yuan in January 2026, before falling to approximately 1050 yuan at the end of January 2026. As long as the price does not drop below 800 yuan, the long-term fundamentals of the gold and jewelry market remain intact, presenting potential buying opportunities during price volatility [1]. 3. **Direct Sales vs. Franchise Models** - Direct sales companies such as Cai Bai Co., Lao Pu Gold, Liufu Group, and Chow Sang Sang are more directly affected by gold price changes, with short-term sales impacting profits. For instance, Cai Bai Co.'s performance forecast for 2025 exceeded expectations due to the gold price being 995 yuan at the end of 2025 [1]. - Franchise models like Chow Tai Fook, Chow Tai Sheng, Lao Feng Xiang, and others typically reflect consumer demand recovery after gold price changes, which may take 3-5 quarters. Currently, these franchise companies are at lower stock price levels, indicating more certain investment opportunities [2]. 4. **Comparison with Gold Mining Companies** - Gold jewelry companies have significantly better cash flow compared to gold mining companies. For example, the dividend payout ratios since listing are 88% for Chow Tai Fook, 58% for Chow Tai Sheng, and 60% for Cai Bai Co., while mining companies like Shandong Gold, Chifeng Gold, and Hunan Gold have much lower ratios of 21%, 5%, and 19% respectively [2]. - There is a time lag in stock price reactions; gold mining stocks respond immediately to gold price increases, while jewelry companies show delayed responses [2]. 5. **Market Reactions and Opportunities** - The recent drop in gold prices may lead to panic selling in the market. However, the long-term business model advantages remain unchanged, and adjustments in stock prices may present buying opportunities. Companies in the direct sales model are expected to benefit if gold prices do not fall significantly below 1000 yuan [2][3]. 6. **Franchise Model Resilience** - Franchise brands will also benefit as long as gold prices do not drop below 800 yuan, with gradual performance improvements expected even in a fluctuating market [3]. Additional Important Insights - The analysis emphasizes the resilience of the gold and jewelry sector against short-term price fluctuations and highlights the importance of understanding different business models within the industry for investment decisions [1][2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices has led to a mixed response from investors, with some seizing the opportunity to buy while others are looking to liquidate their holdings due to fears of further declines [3][7]. Market Reaction - On January 31, spot silver prices fell by 36%, marking the largest single-day drop in history, while gold prices dropped over 12%, falling below $4,700 per ounce, the largest single-day decline in 40 years [1][7]. - Despite the price drop, the demand for gold jewelry remains strong, with reports of significant purchases, such as a consumer buying 263 grams of gold jewelry for over 360,000 yuan [1][4]. Investor Sentiment - The current market shows a clear division in investor sentiment: some are buying gold and silver as a hedge, while others are anxious about potential further declines and are looking to sell [3][6]. - Online discussions reflect a mix of emotions, with some investors expressing regret over losses and others feeling that gold remains out of reach due to high prices [6]. Price Drivers - The sharp decline in gold and silver prices was triggered by the nomination of Kevin Warsh for the next Federal Reserve Chair, which led to a rapid increase in the dollar index, making gold and silver more expensive for overseas investors [7]. - Analysts suggest that the recent price movements are influenced by market sentiment and profit-taking, with a significant amount of capital having entered the precious metals market recently [7][8]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that while short-term volatility may continue, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing geopolitical risks and potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy [8][9]. - The potential for gold prices to reach $6,000 per ounce is noted, although short-term fluctuations are expected [8]. - The market for silver may experience even greater volatility due to its smaller market size and lower liquidity compared to gold [9].