白银和铂金的价格飙涨，也带动了线下的白银和铂金消费。蓝鲸新闻记者从一位水贝商户处了解到，店 内的500克投资银条目前缺货，需要订购，假期结束后取货。此外他表示，最近银价飙升，投资银条或 银饰的拿货也不如之前容易，有的时候需要溢价才能拿到板料。"上周三开始就是要加钱，一直都加 钱，一克得加一块多。"@蓝鲸新闻 而一周之前，12月24日，现货黄金首次升破4500美元/盎司关口。受此影响，国内品牌金饰价格纷纷上 扬。周生生金饰克价达1411元，老凤祥金饰克价为1406元，周大福金饰克价是1410元。以一枚20克的黄 金素圈手镯为例，一周前后差价超1300元。 【元旦买金热：水贝黄金挤满买金人，#水贝投资银条溢价缺货#】#20g金手镯一周差价超1300元# 2025年12月31日午后，现货黄金直线下跌，一度下跌1.50%失守4300美元/盎司。金价下跌同步传导至水 贝黄金和品牌金。蓝鲸新闻记者了解到，1月1日，上海紫锦城珠宝交易中心足金价格为1012元/克，古 法金价格为1032元/克。 ...

来源：赛博AI实验室 本文基于以下微博话题的智搜结果生成 金价单日暴跌超40元/克引发市场震动，店员直呼"从业首次见"的极端跌幅，却与历史数据形成矛盾， 折射出消费者、投资者与从业者对"暴跌"认知的割裂。 跌幅数据与店员说法矛盾 2025年12月30日，周生生、老凤祥等品牌金饰单日下跌40-53元/克，36克金镯一夜便宜1530元。潮宏 基、周大福店员称"从未见过单日跌40多元"，此前波动多为几元至20元。但同年10月21日老庙黄金曾单 日跌83元/克，此番"首次见"说法被指存在地域差异或认知偏差。 对比全年涨幅的"伪暴跌" 2025年金价从年初600元/克涨至1400元以上，累计涨幅超400元/克，本次单日跌50元仅回调年内涨幅的 12.5%。网友调侃："涨400元不吱声，跌50元喊暴跌"，部分消费者仍期待"回归500-600元/克"。 二、市场反应的"冰火两重天" 消费端：有人抄底，有人观望 刚需族出手：部分顾客趁降价锁定心仪款式，"看中直接买走"，深圳水贝市场因工费低（30元/克）吸 引精打细算者。 观望等低位：消费者指出品牌金饰现价1350元/克仍处高位，相比国际金价982元/克溢价超37%，期待进 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold prices have reached new historical highs, with London spot gold and COMEX gold futures surpassing $4500 and $4550 respectively, marking a significant increase of over 70% for the year [1][3][5]. Price Movements - As of December 24, London spot gold peaked at $4525.83 per ounce and COMEX gold futures at $4555.1 per ounce, before settling at $4482.86 and $4516.8 respectively [3][5]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also surged, with several brands reporting prices exceeding 1400 RMB per gram for pure gold [7][9]. Market Predictions - Experts predict that international gold prices may continue to rise, potentially exceeding $5000 per ounce by 2026, driven by factors such as anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical tensions [5][6]. - The current supportive factors for gold prices include persistent safe-haven demand, a loose monetary environment, and strong structural buying [6]. Consumer Guidance - Consumers are advised to avoid impulsive purchases in the current high-price environment and consider staggered buying strategies to mitigate price risk [9][10]. - For those looking to invest, it is recommended to focus on standardized investment tools with low premium rates and good liquidity, rather than high-value decorative gold items [9].

齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点编辑 崔可腾 实习生 赵钰灿 金银涨"疯"了！ 金银价格均创历史新高 12月22日至23日，全球贵金属市场迎来集体狂欢，COMEX黄金升破4500美元/盎司，现货黄金首次突破4400美元/盎司大关，年内涨幅超68%，均创历史新 高。 | < W | 贵金属 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅▶ | | 伦敦金现 | 4421.350 | 1.91% | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | 伦敦银现 | 68.952 | 2.84% | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | COMEX黄金 | 4453.5 | 1.51% | | GC.CMX | | | | COMEX白银 | 69.040 | 2.30% | | SI.CMX | | | 受国际金价影响，国内黄金市场同样火爆。周生生足金饰品标价1403元/克，较前一日1367元/克的价格上涨36元/克。老凤祥足金饰品标价1399元/克，较 前一日1365元/克的价格上涨34元/克。 老庙黄金足金饰品标价1402元/克，较前一日1367元/克的价格上涨35元/克。 | 2 ...

受此影响，国内品牌金饰价格多日连涨态势也随之终结。中新经纬16日查询到，周生生足金饰品报1349元/克，较昨日跌4元/克，终结自12月10日起的五 连涨；周大福、老庙黄金、老凤祥等品牌，金饰克价较昨日保持不变。 16日下午，现货黄金短暂冲高后盘中跳水，跌破4300美元。 12月16日晚，金价反转，黄金直线拉升。截至发稿，现货黄金报4322美元/盎司，报涨0.41%。 15日，现货黄金日内先震荡上行至4350美元前后，在北京时间22:00后快速回落，最终收于4307美元左右。 后续怎么走？报告认为，本周内有包括美国11月非农、美国11月CPI和欧洲日本等央行的会议，市场波动或进一步放大，尽管机构仍看好金银上方的空 间，但提示短期需要注意仓位管理、及时保护利润。 来源：中新经纬、证券时报 · e公司 封面图源：IC photo 编辑：薛锦瑜 校审：施冰冰、王容、何畅 | 黄金 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国内金价 国际金价 门店金价 | | | 手部 > | | 品牌 银行 回收 | | | | | 周大福 [12-16] | 1 | 3 | 5 3 元/克 | | 周 ...

A new crop of Chinese gold jewelry brands are attracting investor interest in the wake of Laopu Gold’s breakout success https://t.co/nsfD8WclnJ ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Consumer Sector - **Event**: Citi's 2025 China Conference - **Participants**: 44 China consumer companies were hosted, leading to the identification of five investment themes in the consumer sector [1][9] Investment Themes 1. **Shift Towards Experience Consumption**: - Consumers are increasingly valuing emotional experiences over physical goods, seeking happiness and self-expression through services [2] - Companies like Pop Mart provide affordable entertainment options that resonate with young consumers [2] 2. **Focus on Well-being**: - Younger generations are prioritizing spending on wellness, including health, fitness, and mindfulness [3] - Growth opportunities are seen in sectors like sportswear (Anta), health supplements (H&H), and beauty care (Giant Bio) [3] 3. **Rising Silver Economy**: - The aging population is driving demand for leisure and cultural experiences, benefiting industries like tourism (H World, Atour) and health supplements [4] 4. **Emerging New Channels**: - New offline channels such as membership stores and snack specialty chains are gaining traction, helping to offset declines in traditional distribution [5] 5. **Multi-brand Strategy**: - Companies are expanding their brand portfolios to meet diverse consumer demands, with a focus on easing channel inventory pressure [6] Company-Specific Insights Pop Mart (9992.HK) - **Sustainability of IP Operation**: Pop Mart is seen as a growth play due to its strong IP incubation capabilities. Concerns about growth sustainability are being addressed through new product launches [10] - **LABUBU Durability**: The company plans to enhance its LABUBU IP with new products and has postponed the launch of LABUBU 4.0 to 2026 [11] - **Overseas Expansion**: Plans to operate over 60 stores in the US by the end of 2025, with expansions into Canada and Mexico [13] Laopu Gold (6181.HK) - **Sales Growth Expectations**: Management expects high revenue growth in 2H25E driven by price adjustments and new store sales [16] - **Price Adjustment Strategy**: A recent price increase of over 25% aims to maintain a gross profit margin (GPM) of at least 40% [17] - **Store Expansion Plans**: Focus on expanding floor areas in existing malls rather than entering new ones [22] Haidilao International Holding Ltd (6862.HK) - **Recovery in Table-Turn**: Management anticipates positive momentum in table-turn rates due to seasonal factors and a low comp base [30] - **Operational Improvements**: Plans to terminate loss-making pilot programs to save on operational expenses [32] China Resources Beer (0291.HK) - **Sales Performance**: The company reported low single-digit year-over-year sales growth, outperforming peers [34] - **Margin Outlook**: Expected GPM improvement in 2H25E, with a target dividend payout ratio increase to ~60% in 2025E [36] Midea Group (0300.HK) - **Sales Growth Target**: Management maintains a target of ~10% sales growth for 2025, with a focus on air-conditioning sales recovery [40] - **Overseas Business Expansion**: Plans to increase overseas production to ~30% and grow sales in developed markets through M&A [41] Li Ning (2331.HK) - **Sales Guidance**: Maintained guidance for 2025 with expectations of flat sales and high single-digit net profit margin growth [48] Nongfu Spring (9633.HK) - **Sales Guidance**: Management reiterated a mid-teen percentage growth target for 2025, with limited impact from price wars in the beverage sector [51] Cosmetics Sector - **Mixed Performance**: Domestic brands like Mao Geping and Chicmax showed strong growth, while others lagged behind [56] - **Growth Strategies**: Companies are focusing on online sales growth and improving operational efficiency to enhance margins [57][59] Additional Insights - **Consumer Trends**: There is a notable shift towards experiential consumption and wellness, indicating a changing landscape in consumer preferences [2][3] - **Operational Strategies**: Companies are adopting multi-brand strategies and optimizing supply chains to enhance profitability and meet diverse consumer demands [6][14] This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed during the conference, highlighting the evolving dynamics within the China consumer sector and specific company strategies.

Core Points - The new tax policy for gold trading, effective from November 1, aims to reduce taxes for transactions conducted through exchanges while maintaining existing tax rules for non-exchange channels [1][3] - The policy differentiates between the "financial" and "commodity" attributes of gold, encouraging investment through regulated exchange channels [1][3] Tax Policy Changes - Transactions of standard gold through the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange will be exempt from value-added tax (VAT) when sold [1] - If gold is not withdrawn from the exchange, it is directly exempt from VAT; if physical gold is withdrawn, investment gold will enjoy a tax refund policy, while consumer gold can deduct VAT at a rate of 6% [1] - Non-exchange channels, such as purchasing gold bars or jewelry from stores, will still incur a 13% VAT [1] Impact on Consumers - Personal sales of used gold jewelry will be exempt from VAT, allowing individuals to sell items like old gold rings without tax implications [2] - The direct impact on retail prices of gold jewelry is minimal, but potential supply shortages from increased demand for investment gold through exchanges could lead to higher prices in the future [2] Investment Recommendations - For those looking to invest in gold for inflation hedging or asset preservation, it is advisable to use exchange channels like gold futures, which offer tax benefits and higher liquidity [2] - Consumers interested in purchasing gold jewelry or bars for personal use can continue to buy from stores without concern [2] Policy Background - The adjustment aims to create a more regulated and fair gold market, addressing previous lax tax management in non-exchange transactions and preventing tax loopholes [3] - The policy supports the gold industry and strengthens Shanghai's position as an international financial center for gold pricing [3]

Core Insights - Gold futures opened at $3,939.50 per ounce, down 0.5% from the previous close of $3,960.50, marking the lowest opening since October 28 [1][4] - The price of gold has fluctuated around $4,000 after a recent pullback from all-time highs, influenced by economic uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and a trade agreement with China [2] - Stock prices have declined, potentially increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Current Price Trends - The current opening price of gold futures reflects a decrease of 0.5% from the previous day, with a notable increase of 62.4% from one year ago as of October 17 [1][4][8] - Weekly change shows a decline of 1.1%, while the monthly change indicates a slight increase of 0.8% [8] Investment Options in Gold - Various methods to invest in gold include physical gold, gold mining stocks, gold ETFs, and gold futures [9] - Physical gold is tangible and easily accessible, but it has risks such as theft and lower liquidity [10][16] - Gold mining stocks can be volatile due to their dependence on gold prices and geopolitical risks, leading many investors to prefer diversified funds [11][17] - Gold ETFs track gold prices and offer greater liquidity, but they come with fund fees that can dilute returns [15][20] - Gold futures allow for leverage and convenience but carry high risks and complexity [19][21]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Gold and Jewelry Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the gold and jewelry industry in China, particularly brands such as Chow Tai Fook (CTF), Luk Fook, Lao Feng Xiang, and others [4][5]. Core Insights - **Gold Price Impact**: The rapid increase in gold prices has negatively affected weight-based jewelry demand and franchisee profitability. A potential correction in gold prices could help revive demand [2][6]. - **Consumer Behavior**: Consumers have become more price-sensitive, leading to a wait-and-see approach. Sales declines were reported across most brands in 1Q25, with a 17% increase in gold prices during that period. Sales were flat or slightly improved in 2Q, followed by renewed declines in September and October [6][10]. - **Franchisee Challenges**: Brands with high franchise exposure are more vulnerable during this down-cycle. Thin margins (approximately 10% for franchisees) have resulted in lower sales volumes, impacting profitability and leading to store closures [5][6]. Key Data Points - **Sales Trends**: - 1Q25: Sales declines reported with gold prices up 17% - 2Q25: Flat or slightly improved sales (+5%) - September-October: Renewed sales declines (+20% from August) [6][10]. - **Gold Price Threshold**: A drop in gold price to Rmb850/g (5% decrease from current levels, 15% from peak) could trigger retail demand and franchisee restocking, similar to trends observed in 2013 [10][11]. Competitive Landscape - **Price Competition**: Franchisees are offering deeper discounts to stimulate sales. Domestic brands are more aggressive with discounts of 40-50%, while Hong Kong brands maintain discipline with discounts below 20% [10][12]. - **Brand Differentiation**: The market is becoming commoditized, but CTF stands out due to superior brand and operational management, including franchisee management and product quality control [13][14]. Emerging Trends - **Luxury Positioning**: Laopu's emergence in the market has created new demand for premium gold jewelry, benefiting leading brands like CTF. Strong marketing and social media presence have contributed to Laopu's success [14]. Valuation and Risks - **Chow Tai Fook Valuation**: The target price is based on a 19x F2027e P/E, reflecting a strategy shift towards slower network expansion but improved same-store profitability. Projected EPS CAGR is approximately 30% over F2025-27 [26]. - **Risks**: - Upside risks include faster-than-expected network expansion and gold price rallies. - Downside risks involve macroeconomic slowdowns, intense competition, and potential declines in disposable income [30][32]. Conclusion - The gold and jewelry industry in China is currently facing challenges due to gold price volatility and changing consumer behavior. However, brands like Chow Tai Fook are positioned to navigate these challenges effectively through strong operational management and brand recognition. The potential for demand recovery exists if gold prices stabilize or decline.