（原标题："美版支付宝"掉入估值陷阱） 作者 | 王晗玉 编辑 | 张帆 在美股科技股屡创新高的过去一年，曾经的"美版支付宝"PayPal却逆势走低。 自2月3日公布2025年第四季度及全年财报以来，至目前其股价已跌去25.32%。拉长时间线来看，其相 较2025年年初估值已打对折，股价跌超54%，当前市盈率仅6.9倍。 公布财报后PayPal股价跌幅 图源：Wind 据Wind统计，与PayPal同一分类下的其他个股市盈率中位值接近20倍。 调整后每股收益为1.23美元，同比增长3.4%，同样未达预期的1.28美元。 全年来看，PayPal营收为331.72亿美元，同比增长4.3%，实现每股收益为5.41美元，略高于分析师预期 的5.36美元。 尽管全年数据仍保持正增长，但第四季度的显著放缓引发了市场对公司未来增长前景的担忧。 更值得关注的是PayPal的品牌支付业务表现。该业务是其主要收入来源，但在第四季度，在线品牌结账 的总支付额按固定汇率计算仅增长了1%，远低于此前常年维持在5%左右的增幅。 尽管管理层在财报电话会议中解释称，品牌支付业务的放缓主要受到美国零售业整体疲软、德国市场宏 观经济挑战以及旅游 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant decline in PayPal's market capitalization, which has dropped from $363 billion in July 2021 to $38 billion, representing an 87% decrease from its peak [4] - The shift in market sentiment from optimism to pessimism is highlighted, with PayPal experiencing a slowdown in growth post-COVID-19, as evidenced by a mere 4% revenue increase in 2025 [5][6] Company Performance - PayPal's total payment volume, revenue, and net income surged by 76%, 43%, and 70% respectively between 2019 and 2021, indicating strong performance prior to the pandemic [5] - The company has faced challenges with a flatlining user base and declining transaction counts, leading to the hiring of its second CEO in less than three years [6] Competitive Landscape - The primary risk for PayPal is intense competition in the payments sector, with notable competitors including Stripe, Adyen, Shopify, Global Payments' Worldpay, and Block's Square [7][8] - Additionally, the rise of Apple Pay and Google Pay, which benefit from integration with popular smartphone operating systems, poses a significant threat to PayPal's market position [9]

Core Insights - PayPal is experiencing a slowdown in its branded checkout business, facing stiff competition from major players like Apple Pay and Google Pay, as well as e-commerce platforms and buy-now-pay-later providers [1][2] Financial Performance - The latest earnings report indicates a deceleration in growth for PayPal's branded checkout, with growth dropping to 1% in Q4 from 6% a year prior [2] - PayPal's revenue for the quarter was $8.68 billion, falling short of the $8.79 billion expected by analysts [2] - The company has provided weak guidance, projecting a mid-single-digit percentage decline in earnings per share for 2026, contrasting with Wall Street's expectation of an 8% increase [2] Market Challenges - Factors contributing to the slowdown include weakness in US retail, international issues, and challenging comparisons to previous results [3] - Analysts are expressing concerns about PayPal's competitive position, with former executives noting a loss of product edge and competitive ability [4] Executive Changes - PayPal is undergoing a leadership change, with Enrique Lores set to replace Alex Chriss as CEO on March 1, 2024 [3] - The interim CEO, Jamie Miller, acknowledged that execution in branded checkout has not met expectations [4] Analyst Reactions - HSBC downgraded PayPal's stock from buy to hold, reflecting diminished confidence in the company's ability to improve its branded checkout business [6] - TD Cowen analysts reduced their price target for PayPal's stock from $65 to $48, citing ongoing structural concerns in the core branded online checkout business [6]

Core Viewpoint - PayPal is facing significant challenges in recovering to its pandemic highs, with a drastic slowdown in growth leading to a decline in share prices and investor confidence [1][11]. Financial Performance - PayPal's stock is currently trading 86% below its peak as of February 3, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.2, attracting value investors [2]. - In Q4 2025, online branded checkout experienced only a 1% increase in total payment volume compared to Q4 2024, indicating weakness during a critical holiday season [5]. - The company reported a gross margin of 41.78% and a dividend yield of 0.35%, having paid its first quarterly dividend of $0.14 in December, totaling $130 million in Q4 [9][10]. Management and Strategic Changes - The board of directors has decided to replace CEO Alex Chriss with HP's Enrique Lores, effective March 1, reflecting a lack of confidence in current leadership [1]. - Management's guidance for adjusted earnings per share in 2026 indicates a "low-single digit decline to slightly positive," which was not well received by investors [9]. Market Position and Competition - PayPal's focus on discretionary and online spending, particularly among middle-income demographics, has not been favorable, especially in light of retail weakness in the U.S. [6][7]. - Intense competition from tech giants like Apple Pay and Google Pay is impacting PayPal's market position, as these competitors integrate seamlessly with smartphones [6]. Investment Considerations - Despite its low valuation, PayPal is not currently viewed as an underrated investment opportunity, with investors seeking fundamental improvements before considering the business [11].

Industry Overview - Mobile payments are increasingly replacing physical wallets, enhancing transaction speed and efficiency in the global economy [2][3] - The global mobile payments market reached $4.97 trillion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $46.62 trillion by 2034, reflecting a 28% compound annual growth rate [4] Technological Advancements - The rise of smartphone penetration, wearables, and fintech innovations are driving mobile payment adoption, particularly among Gen Z and Millennials [3] - Technologies such as AI and blockchain are improving fraud prevention and transaction reliability [3] Market Dynamics - E-commerce growth and improved digital infrastructure are reinforcing mobile payment momentum, benefiting small businesses by enhancing cash flow and financial visibility [5] - Competition is intensifying among companies like Nu Holdings, Global Payments, and Remitly, which are forming deeper partnerships to scale their operations [6] Company Insights: Nu Holdings - Nu Holdings offers mobile payment capabilities through its Nubank platform, integrating payments into a single app-based ecosystem [8] - The company serves over 127 million customers globally, with a strong engagement rate of over 83% [9] - Nu Holdings is strategically applying for a U.S. national bank charter to access a larger digital payments market [10] Company Insights: Global Payments - Global Payments is a leading provider of payment technology, enabling mobile and digital wallet transactions across various channels [11] - The company generates revenue primarily through transaction-based fees, benefiting from the rise in mobile payment adoption [13] Company Insights: Remitly Global - Remitly operates a mobile-first platform focused on international remittances, facilitating seamless cross-border payments [14] - The company reported 8.9 million active customers and a 35% year-over-year increase in total send volume to $19.5 billion [16] - Remitly is expanding its partnerships to enhance geographic coverage and accelerate settlement times [17]

Core Viewpoint - PayPal Holdings Inc. is currently considered one of the most undervalued quality stocks, despite recent downgrades and competitive pressures in the digital payments space [1][7]. Group 1: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Rothschild & Co. Redburn downgraded PayPal from Neutral to Sell, lowering its price target from $70 to $50 [1][7]. - Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Ramsey El-Assal initiated coverage with a Neutral rating and a price target of $60, highlighting recent strategic moves that could enhance profitability and growth [3]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The firm noted that consumer preferences are shifting towards alternative payment methods, with platforms like Shop Pay, Stripe Link, Apple Pay, and Google Pay gaining traction among users [2]. - Despite the competitive environment, El-Assal anticipates that PayPal's strategic initiatives will lead to increased volume and revenue growth by FY2026 [3]. Group 3: Company Overview - PayPal operates a technology platform that facilitates digital payments for both merchants and consumers globally [4].

Core Insights - PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PYPL) experienced a significant stock decline of over 20% due to a combination of unexpected leadership changes, disappointing earnings, and a weak outlook for the upcoming year [1][6]. Leadership Changes - The most shocking development was the sudden departure of CEO Alex Chriss, who had only been in the position since late 2023 [2]. - Interim CEO Miller indicated that the board's decision was influenced by slow execution, reflecting a lack of confidence in the company's recent turnaround efforts [3]. Earnings Performance - PayPal's Q4 earnings report did not meet Wall Street expectations, leading to disappointment from both investors and the board [4]. - Growth in Branded Checkout, a key component of PayPal's service, slowed to just 1%, a notable decrease from the previous growth rates of 5% to 6%, indicating increased competition from rivals like Apple Pay and Google Pay [4]. Future Outlook - The company revised its fiscal 2026 earnings forecast to reflect a range of single-digit decline to slightly positive, and it withdrew its 2027 outlook entirely [5]. - Interim CEO Miller expressed optimism about the future, anticipating that the new CEO, Lores, would bring operational focus and discipline, positioning PayPal favorably for 2026 and beyond [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL) is facing increased competition and slower growth, leading to downgrades from analysts and a reduced price target [1][3]. Group 1: Analyst Downgrades - Rothschild Redburn analyst Dominic Ball downgraded PayPal from Neutral to Sell, lowering the price target from $70 to $50 due to the competitive advantage of traditional card networks [1]. - Morgan Stanley also reduced its price target on PayPal to $50 from $51 while maintaining an Underweight rating, citing slower growth in the branded checkout segment [3]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The marginal consumer is increasingly opting for alternative payment methods, with competitors like Apple Pay, Google Pay, Shopify's Shop Pay, and Stripe's Link gaining users from PayPal [2]. - Traditional card networks are perceived to have stronger pricing power and demand for cyber and risk services in the evolving e-commerce landscape [2]. Group 3: Checkout Integration Challenges - PayPal's progress in upgrading checkout integrations has been slow, with only 25% of merchants transitioning to the new checkout experience in about 15 months, and only half of those using the most optimized integration [4].

Core Insights - Apple is planning to launch Apple Pay in India within the year, engaging in discussions with card networks like Mastercard and Visa while seeking regulatory approval [1][2] Group 1: Launch Strategy - Apple is negotiating fee structures with card issuers for access to its payment gateway, which is already operational in 89 markets [3] - The launch will occur in phases, starting with card-based contactless payments, followed by potential integration with India's Unified Payments Interface (UPI) [3][4] Group 2: Market Context - The Indian market is becoming increasingly competitive for mobile wallets, with Apple facing challenges from other providers [4] - A report indicated that while Apple Pay's usage is increasing, it is not keeping pace with the overall growth in mobile wallet usage, suggesting a widening field for competitors [5][6] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Apple Pay's share of eligible in-store transactions rose to 10.2%, up from 8.9% the previous year, with annual in-store sales volume reaching an estimated $450 billion [6] - Competitors like Google Pay, PayPal, and Cash App have also seen significant user growth, indicating a narrowing gap in overall adoption [7]

Core Insights - Google has introduced a new "universal commerce protocol" aimed at enhancing interactions between digital agents and potential shoppers during AI chat sessions [1][2] - The protocol has been developed in collaboration with major retailers like Shopify, Target, and Walmart, and is endorsed by around 20 significant payment players including Adyen, PayPal, Stripe, Worldpay, Mastercard, and Visa [2] Group 1: Protocol Development - The universal commerce protocol establishes a common language for agents and systems to operate together, facilitating smoother transactions [2] - The protocol will enable shoppers using Google's AI mode to purchase items directly from retailers such as Best Buy, Lowe's, and Walmart, initially through Google Pay [4] Group 2: Future Capabilities - Google plans to work with retailers to expand the protocol globally and add features like discovering related products, applying loyalty rewards, and creating custom shopping experiences [5] - The protocol is designed to streamline operations for various digital agents, allowing them to interact easily without needing unique connections for each agent [6] Group 3: Integration with Existing Standards - Google's AP2 protocol will work alongside the universal commerce protocol to facilitate agentic purchases, enabling agents to make purchases on behalf of users [7]