Core Viewpoint - Palantir Technologies has significantly outperformed Nvidia in the first half of 2025, with Palantir's shares rising nearly 70% compared to Nvidia's single-digit percentage increase. The future performance of both companies remains uncertain, particularly for the second half of 2025 [1]. Palantir Technologies - Palantir's commercial revenue reached $255 million in Q1 2025, marking a 71% year-over-year increase and a 19% quarter-over-quarter increase. The U.S. commercial total contract booking value surged 183% year-over-year to $810 million, the highest in the company's history [3]. - The company's U.S. government revenue also saw a 45% year-over-year increase in Q1, totaling $373 million. The potential passage of President Trump's "Big, Beautiful Bill" has generated excitement among Palantir shareholders, as the company is considered a frontrunner for the Golden Dome missile defense system contract included in the legislation [4]. - Continued commercial success is anticipated for Palantir, bolstered by new collaborations with Elon Musk's AI company xAI and The Joint Commission shortly after Q1 results were reported [9]. Nvidia - Nvidia has faced challenges, primarily due to export restrictions on AI chips imposed by the Trump administration, leading to a $4.5 billion write-off in Q1 due to excess inventory and reduced demand for H20 GPUs [5]. - The company's CFO acknowledged that tariff-related uncertainties have temporarily impacted systems revenue in Q1 [6]. - Despite these challenges, Nvidia's new Blackwell GPUs are expected to be a commercial success, with the fastest ramp-up in the company's history anticipated to improve profit margins as the year progresses [10]. Future Outlook - Uncertainties surrounding the passage of the "Big, Beautiful Bill" and its potential impact on Palantir's contracts create a cloudy outlook for the company [11]. - The unpredictability of the Trump administration's trade policies raises concerns about Nvidia's performance in the second half of the year [12]. - While Palantir is likely to outperform Nvidia through the end of the year, it is not guaranteed that it will significantly surpass Nvidia [13]. - Valuation differences are notable, with Palantir's forward earnings multiple at nearly 244 compared to Nvidia's 32 times forward earnings, suggesting Nvidia may be a better long-term investment despite both companies experiencing slowing growth [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has significantly benefited from the AI boom, with its stock rising over 800% since January 2023, and the recent decision by the Trump administration to rescind the AI Diffusion framework may further enhance its share price appreciation [1][6]. Group 1: AI Diffusion Framework - The Commerce Department rescinded the AI Diffusion framework, which was initially announced during the Biden administration and aimed to limit the sale of advanced semiconductors to various countries [3][6]. - The AI Diffusion framework categorized countries into three tiers based on their access to U.S. technology, with first-tier countries having unlimited access, second-tier countries facing restrictions, and third-tier countries being completely prohibited from importing advanced AI chips [4][5]. Group 2: Nvidia's Strategic Moves - Nvidia has recently formed AI infrastructure partnerships with Saudi Arabian companies, which would have been complicated under the previous AI Diffusion framework [7]. - The collaboration with Saudi company Humain involves building AI data centers using 18,000 Nvidia Grace Blackwell superchips and deploying Nvidia's Omniverse simulation software [8]. - Nvidia will also work with the Saudi Data & AI Authority (SDAIA) to establish a sovereign AI factory, deploying 5,000 Nvidia Blackwell GPUs [9]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Analyst Sentiment - The rescission of the AI Diffusion rules is viewed positively by Nvidia shareholders as it opens new market opportunities in the Middle East, which had previously been overlooked for GPU demand [10]. - Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Nvidia, with 87% of 69 analysts recommending a buy rating and a median target price of $160 per share, indicating an 18% upside from the current price of $135 [11]. - Nvidia's adjusted earnings are projected to increase by 46% over the next four quarters, making its current valuation of 45 times earnings appear reasonable [12].

Nvidia (NVDA 4.12%) first reached a market cap of $3 trillion in June 2024. The giant GPU maker remained above the threshold throughout much of the next eight months before a steep sell-off this year. However, Nvidia just rejoined Apple (AAPL -0.28%) and Microsoft (MSFT 0.81%) in the $3 trillion club. Could it even become the first $4 trillion stock by 2026? Bouncing back What did Nvidia do to bounce back? Nothing on its own. To understand the stock's rebound, we need to first understand why it fell in the ...