研究员：吴晓蓉 期货从业证号：F03108405 投资咨询证号：Z0021537 目录 天然气：极端行情下风险放大 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 基本面分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 核心数据追踪 | 9 | 1 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 本本本本LNG 本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本 本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本 本本本本本本本本本LNG本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本 本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本TTF本JKM本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本 本本本本本本本本本本本本 ...

Report Title - Natural Gas: LNG Rebounds Sharply, HH Remains Weak [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Not clearly stated in the given text Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Mentions TTF and JKM, but no specific analysis content provided [4] 2. Fundamental Analysis LNG Market Fundamentals - Some data are presented, such as LNG having a certain value (184.1, 170.5, 91.4), and the power consumption being 592.7 TWh, with a -19.5% change compared to some reference period, and the proportion being 51.8% and 64.2%. Also, LNG has a consumption of 4628 GWh/day, a 17.4% change, etc. Forecasts from ECMWF and NOAA show temperature changes of 1 - 2℃, 2 - 4℃ [9] US Market Fundamentals - There are data about production and consumption. For example, on a certain day, the production is 31850, with an increase of 710 and 330 compared to some previous data, a 1% change; the number of rigs is 1132, a 0.3% change compared to the previous data, and a 9.0% change compared to the data from Baker Hughes on a specific day. There are also data on consumption and its changes [11] 3. Core Data Tracking International Natural Gas Prices - Includes TTF - HH spread, and prices of JKM first - line, TFU first - line, HH first - line, as well as HH monthly spreads (HH M1 - M2, HH M1 - M6, HH M1 - M12) and TTF monthly spreads (TTF M1 - M2, TTF M1 - M6, TTF M1 - M12) [15] Forward Curves - HH, JKM, and TTF forward curves are presented [18] China's Natural Gas Supply and Demand - China's natural gas supply and consumption volume data are shown, as well as domestic and imported LNG supply volume data [21] China's Inventory and Price - China's receiving station inventory level (in tons),储气库库存水平 (in %), and LNG ex - factory prices (including national, North China, South China, and East China) are presented [24] Northwest European Coal - Gas Conversion and European Natural Gas Data - Northwest European coal - gas conversion interval, European natural gas inventory, LNG import volume, and the quantity of floating storage tanks over 20 days are shown [27] European Natural Gas Import and Domestic Production - Data on European natural gas imports from different sources (Norway, Russia, North Africa, etc.) and domestic production in different countries (Netherlands, Italy, etc.) are presented [30] US Natural Gas Data - US natural gas inventory, dry gas production, rig numbers, liquefied export project flows, domestic consumption, power generation demand, industrial consumption, and residential and commercial consumption data, as well as the supply - demand balance sheet are provided [33][36][38] Temperature and Wind Forecasts - Temperature and wind forecasts from ECMWF and GFS are presented, including the latest and previous forecasts, as well as 5 - year and 10 - year averages [41][44]

Report Title - Natural Gas: LNG in Low-level Fluctuations, Support Remains Below HH [1] Core Viewpoints - There is no clear core view presented in the provided text Summary by Sections Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - There is no specific content provided for this chapter Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis LNG Market Fundamental Situation - From December 27, 2025, to January 2, 2026, certain data showed values of 104.8 and 2.8, with a +2.8% change; another showed 112.5 and 8.9, with a -7.3% change [10] - On January 9, LNG had a value of 184.6, and other related LNG values were 157.54 and 86.55 [10] - On January 8, electricity generation was 643.2 TWh, a decrease of 130.9 TWh (-17.9%) compared to a certain period, and accounted for 56.3% and 68.2% in different aspects [10] - On January 8, LNG power generation was 4628 GWh/day, accounting for 28.3% [10] - Another value was 1.60 GWh/day with a 14.4% change, and 10.1 TWh/day with a 13.6% change [10] - ECMWF and NOAA forecasts indicated temperature changes of 3 - 6°C and 1 - 2 - 3°C in different regions [10] US Market Fundamental Situation - On a certain day in January, the data was 32560, with changes of 1190 and 1230, and percentage changes of 3.6% and 0.9% [12] - On January 9, the dry gas production was 1136/day, a 0.2% increase from the previous week and a 9.8% increase year-on-year. Baker Hughes data showed related changes [12] - On January 9, domestic demand was 1046/day, a -7.7% week-on-week change and a -16.7% year-on-year change. Other consumption data also had corresponding changes [12] - On January 9, the liquefaction export project flow was 193, a -1.9% week-on-week change and a 26.7% year-on-year change [12] - ECMWF forecasted a temperature change of 1.5 - 2.5°C in January [12] Chapter 3: Core Data Tracking International Natural Gas Prices - Graphs showed TTF - HH spreads, international natural gas prices (JKM, TTF, HH), HH month spreads, and TTF month spreads from January 2025 to November 2025 [16] Forward Curves - Forward curves of HH, JKM, and TTF were presented from 2602 to 2711 [19] China's LNG Supply and Demand - Graphs showed China's LNG supply (domestic and imported by tank trucks) from January 2025 to January 2026, and China's natural gas supply and demand from December 2025 to January 2026 [22] China's LNG Factory Prices and Inventory - Graphs showed China's LNG factory prices (settlement prices in different regions) from January 2025 to January 2026, and China's inventory situation (receiving station inventory and storage reservoir inventory) [25] European Natural Gas Data - Graphs showed European natural gas inventory, northwest European gas - coal conversion intervals, European LNG imports, and the quantity of floating storage tanks over 20 days from January to December [28] - Graphs showed European natural gas imports from different sources (Norway, Russia, etc.) and European domestic production from February 2024 to January 2026 [31] US Natural Gas Data - A supply - demand balance sheet showed US natural gas supply (dry gas production, Canadian pipeline gas imports) and demand (domestic demand, various consumption types, exports) for the current week, last week, and the same period last year, with corresponding percentage changes [33] - Graphs showed US natural gas inventory, dry gas production, rig numbers, liquefaction export project flows, domestic consumption, power generation demand, industrial consumption, and residential and commercial consumption from different time periods [36][39] Temperature and Wind Forecasts - Graphs showed ECMWF and GFS temperature and wind forecasts from January 5 to February 16, 2026, compared with historical averages [42][45]