Market Overview - The stock market experienced its worst day since October, with all major indices closing significantly lower due to geopolitical tensions and overbought market conditions [2][5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.76% to 48,488, the S&P 500 decreased by 2.06% to 6,796, and the Nasdaq dropped by 2.4% to 22,954 [2] Treasury Bonds - Treasury yields increased, with the 30-year bond closing at 4.92% (up 8 basis points) and the 10-year note at 4.29% (up 6 basis points) [3] - The selling pressure in the bond market was partly fueled by Denmark's announcement of selling $100 million in U.S. Treasuries, which, although a small amount, created headline risk [3] Oil and Gas - Oil prices showed mixed results, with Brent Crude closing at $63.90 (down 0.06%) and West Texas Intermediate at $59.48 (up 0.24%) [4] - Natural gas prices surged by 26% to close at $3.91 due to severe cold weather affecting the U.S. [4] - Disruptions at Kazakhstan's Tengizchevroil facilities due to power distribution issues raised concerns about supply constraints in the energy market [4] Precious Metals - Energy and precious metals, particularly gold, were among the few bright spots in the market amid the overall downturn [5]

Almost anywhere Wall Streeters looked yesterday, they saw trouble. To the East, a brewing trade war with Europe over the fate of Greenland. To the West, an all-time meltdown in Japan’s bond market. The result? Equities melted, the VIX jumped, gold soared and yields on America’s own government bonds leaped to recent highs. And it couldn’t have come at a worse time for Wall Street, which somehow — we’re honestly not sure how — made it into the New Year with a newfound sense of calm and serenity. Call it a d ...

By Tom Westbrook SINGAPORE, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Japan's government bonds are in free fall as investors take a dim view of an atmosphere of competitive spending on the hustings, where politicians are jostling to cut taxes in an economy with the heaviest debt burden in the developed world. Prime Minster Sanae Takaichi called a snap election ​on Monday and is running on a platform of stimulus to drive a return to inflation and growth after decades of stagnation. But she launched her campaign - echoing oppo ...

Hedge funds reportedly built one of their biggest bearish bets against the Japanese yen in years, lining up around 85,000 net short contracts as pressure on the currency grows. As yen stress picked up, Bitcoin slipped below $87,000 in early December, with around $527 million in long positions wiped out in just 24 hours. All of this sits inside a bigger macro story. The rising Japanese bond yields, shifting central bank policies, and a huge yen “carry trade” that now spills directly into our crypto portfo ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government bond market is experiencing increased volatility, with yields reaching historical highs due to expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, particularly affecting the 2-year and 10-year bonds [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The 2-year Japanese government bond yield rose by 3.3 basis points to 1.025%, marking the first time it has surpassed 1% since 2006 [1]. - The 10-year bond yield increased by 6.1 basis points to 1.871%, both yields reaching their highest levels since June 2008 [1]. - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the central bank will weigh the pros and cons of raising interest rates in the upcoming policy meeting, signaling a potential rate hike [3]. Group 2: Currency and Economic Impact - The Japanese yen strengthened to 155.55 against the dollar, following concerns over the yen's depreciation, which had previously approached historic lows near 158 yen per dollar [3]. - The depreciation of the yen is raising concerns about its negative impact on consumer spending, prompting the government and central bank to be vigilant [4]. - Analysts suggest that the combination of a weak yen and expectations of significant economic stimulus provides favorable conditions for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investor Sentiment - The rapid rise in bond yields is attributed to increasing expectations that the government's economic stimulus plan may be larger than previously anticipated, raising concerns about the sustainability of Japan's long-term fiscal situation [4]. - Changes in the supply-demand dynamics of the government bond market are making yields more susceptible to upward pressure, especially with the Bank of Japan's plans to abandon its yield curve control framework by March 2024 [4]. - There is growing reliance on foreign investors for purchasing Japanese government bonds, which may lead to a more cautious stance from these investors amid concerns over fiscal deterioration due to new stimulus measures [4].

Group 1: Deutsche Telekom - JPMorgan has lowered its price target for Deutsche Telekom shares to €39 from €43.5, indicating a more cautious near-term outlook for the company [3][4][9] - The adjustment reflects evolving market conditions, competitive pressures, or changes in anticipated growth trajectories for Deutsche Telekom [4] Group 2: Japanese Government Bonds - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bond has increased by 3 basis points, reaching 2.845%, indicating continued upward pressure in the Japanese bond market [5][9] - This rise in yields is influenced by global interest rate dynamics, domestic inflation expectations, and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy stance [6] Group 3: CME Group - CME Group has temporarily halted commodities futures trading due to technical issues affecting its Globex electronic trading system, impacting a range of products including cryptocurrencies [7][8][9] - The halt affects futures and options contracts across various asset classes, with gold and silver futures experiencing heightened attention prior to the disruption [8][9]

Group 1: Technology Sector - SoftBank Group's shares fell over 10% in Asian markets amid a broader tech and AI sell-off, driven by fears of an AI bubble despite strong earnings from Nvidia Corporation [2][7] - The market's reaction indicates that even strong performance from industry leaders may not alleviate investor concerns regarding the sustainability of current AI valuations [2][7] Group 2: Fixed Income Market - Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) are experiencing increased foreign investor interest as yields rise, signaling a shift in global capital flows [3][7] - The 40-year JGB yield has reached 3.697%, the highest since 2007, with 20-year and 30-year yields also at multi-year highs, attributed to the Bank of Japan's policy normalization and new economic stimulus plans [3][7] Group 3: Telecommunications Sector - French telecom companies are exploring a wider bid for assets owned by billionaire Patrick Drahi, indicating potential consolidation in the competitive French telecom market [4][7] - Previous valuations for Drahi's Altice France, including its SFR unit, reached up to €30 billion, suggesting significant strategic maneuvers among rivals [4][7] Group 4: Steel Industry - Western allies are forming a united front against the influx of cheap Chinese steel, highlighting concerns over China's industrial overcapacity and its impact on global markets [5][7] - The European Commission has announced measures to protect its steel sector, including doubling tariffs on steel imports above a certain quota to 50% [5][7] Group 5: Regulatory Environment - Brussels is preparing to issue a formal warning to Italy regarding its 'golden power' rules, which allow the government to block or impose conditions on corporate takeovers in strategic sectors [8] - Concerns have been raised that Italy's application of these rules may breach EU law and infringe upon capital mobility principles [8]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market continues to show weakness, with interbank bond yields generally rising by around 1 basis point, and a net withdrawal of 213.4 billion yuan in the open market, indicating a cautious atmosphere among investors [1][7]. Market Performance - The afternoon trading saw most government bond futures decline, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.15% to 115.95, the 10-year contract down by 0.09%, and the 5-year contract down by 0.05% [2]. - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly increased, with the 10-year policy bank bond yield rising by 0.8 basis points to 1.878%, and the 30-year government bond yield increasing by 0.45 basis points to 2.1585% [2]. International Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 2-year yield down by 7.2 basis points to 3.553% and the 10-year yield down by 7.6 basis points to 4.083% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly rose, while in the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds from France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased [4]. Primary Market Activity - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average winning yields for 1-year and 2-year government bonds at 1.3485% and 1.3901%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.77 and 3.14 [5]. - The China Export-Import Bank's 3-year floating rate bond had a winning rate of 1.6701% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 6.57 [6]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 141.7 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 213.4 billion yuan for the day [7]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising by 1.4 basis points to 1.327% [7]. Institutional Insights - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, floating rate bonds are attractive to money market funds due to their advantages in duration and coupon yield, suggesting potential market expansion in a declining interest rate environment [8]. - Changjiang Securities anticipates limited disturbances in the bond market's liability side in Q4, predicting a downward trend in the yields of 10-year government bonds [9]. - Huaxi Securities notes that the bond market has entered a phase of information vacuum, with risk appetite becoming the main reference for interest rate pricing [9].

Key Insights - Global financial markets are responding to significant economic data and geopolitical events, particularly the rise in gold holdings by central banks and trade tensions involving the U.S. [2] Central Bank Gold Reserves - Gold has reached a 30-year high in global central bank reserves, now comprising over 20% of total reserves, indicating a shift away from reliance on fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar [3][4] - The accumulation of gold by central banks, especially in emerging markets, is driven by de-dollarization efforts, geopolitical fragmentation, and inflation concerns [4] Asian Markets - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index is expected to open 2.5% higher, with the Hang Seng Automobile Index projected to rise by 3% [5] - The People's Bank of China injected 189 billion yuan through 7-day reverse repos at a steady interest rate of 1.40%, while draining a net 64.8 billion yuan through open market operations [6] Japanese Government Bonds - The yield on 10-year Japanese Government Bonds increased by 2.5 basis points to 1.650%, influenced by easing political uncertainty in Japan [7] U.S. Trade Policy - U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to increase tariffs on Colombia due to drug trade tensions, cutting off subsidies to the nation [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The G7 net DV01 is projected to be $109.3 million per basis point, significantly higher than the average of $72 million per basis point, indicating a robust supply environment [2][12][20] - In the US, a total of $468 billion in supply is expected over the next five weeks, with net issuance projected at $266.9 billion after accounting for coupons and redemptions [5][46] - The euro area anticipates approximately €117.7 billion in supply over the next five weeks, resulting in a net issuance of €39.4 billion [3][42] Summary by Sections Government Bond Auctions - The US will issue a new 3-year UST for an estimated $58 billion, a 10-year UST for $39 billion, and a 30-year UST for $22 billion [5] - In the UK, issuance includes UKT 4.5% Gilt 2035 for £4.25 billion and a syndicated launch of UKTi 1.75% Gilt 2038 for £4 billion [4] - Japan plans two auctions for enhanced liquidity totaling ¥1.1 trillion [6] Supply Overview - The report outlines a detailed schedule of bond supply across various countries, including specific amounts and types of bonds to be issued [11] - The total expected issuance in the euro area is €117.7 billion, with €15.8 billion in coupons and €62.4 billion in redemptions [3][42] G7 Gross Notional and DV01 Estimates - The G7 gross issuance shows significant fluctuations, with the US leading in issuance amounts, particularly in the weeks of May and June [12][13] - The DV01 for the G7 indicates a total of $120.4 million per basis point for the week of June 9, reflecting a strong issuance environment [13][20] Net Issuance and Cash Flow - The report highlights net issuance trends, with the US showing a positive net DV01 of $82 million per basis point for the week of June 9 [20][27] - The UK and Japan exhibit varying net issuance figures, with the UK showing a negative net DV01 in some weeks, indicating potential challenges in the market [18][31]