"The increase in dollar/yen has been quite relentless, and it seems like nothing can stop it from rallying," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia."In the near term, the confirmation of Takaichi as PM and the upcoming October BOJ meeting might be the next catalyst for further weakness in the Japanese yen, especially if Takaichi reinforces her dovish views on fiscal and monetary policy, and the BOJ signals that it may not raise interest rates in the near term," Kong stated ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The global foreign exchange market experienced significant volatility this week, influenced by trade negotiations, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, global central bank policy dynamics, and geopolitical risks [1][6] - The focus of the market is on the progress of tariff negotiations, the direction of Federal Reserve policies, and the performance of global economic data, with geopolitical risks and trade policy uncertainties remaining key factors affecting market sentiment [6] Group 2: Dollar Performance - The US dollar index showed a fluctuating trend, opening around 99.8, reaching a high of 100.64, with an increase of approximately 1.03% [3] - Initially pressured by expectations that the Federal Reserve might maintain interest rates, the dollar rebounded after comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding inflation and trade policy, closing at 100.42 [3] - The dollar exhibited "bull-bear divergence," with investors remaining cautious due to the complexity of US economic data and global economic uncertainties [3] Group 3: Euro and Pound Performance - The euro experienced a volatile week, initially rising for two consecutive trading days before declining on Wednesday and Thursday, closing with a slight rebound at 1.12511 [3] - The euro is expected to face long-term resistance at 1.2150, with insufficient upward momentum, likely maintaining a narrow ascending channel in the short term [3] - The British pound weakened due to uncertainties surrounding the Bank of England's interest rate decision and economic data, closing around 1.3300 [3] Group 4: Safe-Haven and Commodity Currencies - Safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc performed poorly this week, with the USD/JPY pair showing a V-shaped trend as market risk aversion eased amid tariff negotiations [4] - Commodity currencies were mixed, with the Australian dollar weakening due to global economic growth concerns and commodity price fluctuations, while the Canadian dollar stabilized and rebounded due to rising oil prices [5] Group 5: Global Central Bank Dynamics - Several central banks maintained their policies this week, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, which continued their accommodative stances [7] - The Norwegian central bank kept high interest rates to address rising inflation [7] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority took actions to stabilize the Hong Kong dollar, emphasizing the importance of regional financial stability [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The global capital markets are experiencing significant volatility, with traditional safe-haven assets like gold and foreign currencies gaining strength amidst geopolitical risks and inflation concerns Group 1: Safe-Haven Assets - Gold is gaining prominence due to central bank purchases and a trend towards de-dollarization, highlighting its value retention properties [2] - The Japanese yen is expected to appreciate as the Bank of Japan signals tightening, making it an attractive option for short-term forex arbitrage [2] - The Swiss franc is viewed as a safe haven amid European instability, bolstered by the recovery of trust in the Swiss banking sector [3] Group 2: Alternative Assets - Bitcoin is being recognized for its anti-inflation properties following the approval of Bitcoin futures ETFs, although its volatility remains a concern [4] - Rare earth resources are becoming strategic assets due to supply constraints and rising prices, making them suitable for long-term investment [4] Group 3: Pitfalls of Pseudo-Safe Assets - Oil is facing demand weakness despite OPEC+ production cuts, leading to a return to its commodity nature [5] - Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are losing appeal due to rising interest rates, increasing liquidity risks [5] - Emerging market bonds are under pressure from a strong dollar, with heightened default risks in countries like Turkey and Argentina [5] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Conservative strategy suggests a portfolio of 60% gold ETFs, 30% yen cash, and 10% government bond reverse repos [6] - Aggressive strategy includes 50% Bitcoin, 30% rare earth stocks, and 20% Swiss franc deposits [6] - Balanced strategy recommends dollar-cost averaging in gold, holding Bitcoin, and hedging with yen forex options [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - The search for the next "gold" is ongoing, with potential shifts in value driven by blockchain technology and green energy [7] - The core principles of scarcity and consensus value remain central to identifying safe-haven assets [7]