Market Analysis by covering: US Dollar Japanese Yen, S&P 500, Oracle Corporation, NVIDIA Corporation. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com ...

Market Overview - Global financial markets are influenced by shifting monetary policy expectations, geopolitical developments, and varied economic data [2] - Commodity markets, currency pairs, and equity futures are reacting to these influential factors [2] Commodities Sector - Copper prices have declined, with the LME three-month contract dropping to USD 10,669.00 per ton [3] - The decline is attributed to skepticism regarding a potential US Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, with only a 46% chance of a 25-basis-point cut indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool [3] Geopolitical Developments - The UN Security Council is preparing for a vote on a US-drafted resolution for an International Stabilization Force (ISF) in Gaza, which includes a controversial clause on a "pathway to a Palestinian state" [4] - The proposed ISF is expected to comprise approximately 20,000 troops, with initial deployment anticipated by January 2026 [4] Currency Markets - The Japanese Yen has weakened to a nine-month low against the US Dollar, trading around 154.82 per dollar, driven by uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's rate-hike decisions [5] - The USD/CAD pair is maintaining gains near 1.4050, while the Canadian Dollar struggles due to declining crude oil prices, with WTI trading at approximately $59.30 per barrel [5] US Equity Markets - NASDAQ and S&P 500 futures indicate a higher open, supported by optimism surrounding the anticipated end of a US government shutdown [6] - Donald Trump has reversed his stance, now advocating for a vote to release Jeffrey Epstein files while simultaneously suing the Wall Street Journal for $10 billion [6] Economic Data - Thailand's economy grew by 3.2% year-on-year in Q4 2024, an acceleration from the 3.0% growth in Q3 [7] - Private consumption increased by 3.4% year-on-year, contributing positively to overall economic expansion [8]

By Rae Wee and Ankur Banerjee SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Investors laid a record wager on Japan's yen rising to take advantage of a long-overdue economic revival that coincided with expectations for a U.S. slowdown. Instead, what's unfolded is a cautionary tale of the Trump era. The yen is struggling at nine-month lows and speculators ​are back-pedalling from their biggest bet on the currency in records stretching back almost four decades. They have been wrong-footed by a U.S. economy surprisingly resilient ...

Jane Foley of Rabobank writing The dollar will be more sensitive to poor data releases in the coming weeks than to good. Either way, it's time to reassess the outlook for the greenback. Jane joins us now for more.And welcome to the program. What data are you focused on. You know what.Any data, I think at this point, but particularly, of course, the labor data and the CPI data, if and when we get it. But, you know, we all know that that's going to be pretty confusing. Perhaps in October it will be affected b ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has rebounded after seven consecutive days of losses against the U.S. dollar, influenced by comments from Japanese and U.S. officials regarding fiscal and monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Policy Insights - Japan's new economic revitalization minister, Minoru Kiuchi, emphasized the importance of stimulating demand and maintaining a tight labor market while ensuring fiscal discipline [2]. - Kiuchi's remarks indicate that the government is closely monitoring the effects of currency fluctuations on the economy [2]. - Comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggest a preference for conventional monetary policy tools, such as interest rate hikes, rather than foreign exchange intervention [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The sentiment around the Japanese government bond (JGB) market and the yen has improved following the recent comments from officials [3]. - Foreign investors are reassessing their views on the Takaichi administration's fiscal policy, with indications that there may be less fiscal stimulus than previously expected [4]. - The yen was reported to be up 0.44% against the U.S. dollar, trading at 152.18 per dollar [6]. Group 3: Central Bank Expectations - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is anticipated to maintain its current interest rates during its upcoming meeting, but market focus will be on potential signals regarding future rate hikes [5]. - The European Central Bank is also expected to keep rates unchanged, while the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates [6].

Core Insights - The article discusses the internal divisions within the Japanese government regarding exchange rate policies, highlighting a preference for a weaker Yen by the PM office to boost exports, while the Ministry of Finance prioritizes exchange rate stability [1][4] - The "Takaichi trade" may face challenges due to the coalition government's constraints, potentially leading to a smaller fiscal stimulus package than expected, which could result in a rapid pullback of the USD/JPY exchange rate [2][3] - The rapid depreciation of the Yen has raised concerns among officials, prompting verbal interventions to warn against excessive volatility [4][6] Government and Monetary Policy - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has formed a coalition with Ishin, which may limit aggressive reflationary policies and lead to a more balanced economic approach [3] - The Bank of Japan is experiencing internal debates regarding monetary policy, with a hawkish faction advocating for interest rate hikes, while a cautious faction emphasizes the need for data-driven decisions [7][8][9][10][11] - The upcoming Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting is critical, as signals from Governor Kazuo Ueda could influence market expectations and the direction of the Yen [18] Market Reactions and Expectations - The market reacted strongly to the government's fiscal expansion expectations, leading to a weaker Yen and increased pressure on Japanese government bonds [5][13] - The U.S. economic resilience, indicated by lower initial jobless claims, supports the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate decisions, maintaining a significant interest rate gap with Japan [14][15][17] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown complicates the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, creating a paradox where the lack of data may prevent immediate easing, thus supporting the USD/JPY exchange rate [16][17]

Core Insights - The article provides a market analysis covering key financial instruments including the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen, Gold Spot in US Dollars, US Dollar Index Futures, and Crude Oil WTI Futures [1] Group 1: Currency Analysis - The US Dollar is analyzed in relation to the Japanese Yen, indicating fluctuations that may impact trade and investment strategies [1] - The performance of the US Dollar Index Futures is highlighted, reflecting overall market sentiment towards the dollar [1] Group 2: Commodity Analysis - Gold Spot prices in US Dollars are examined, with potential implications for investors seeking safe-haven assets [1] - Crude Oil WTI Futures are discussed, providing insights into energy market trends and their effects on global economies [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. dollar is experiencing a strong performance, on track for its best week in nearly a year, primarily due to the weakness of the Japanese yen and political turmoil in Japan and France [10][11] - The Japanese yen is expected to weaken further, especially with the confirmation of Takaichi as Prime Minister and the upcoming Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting, which may signal no interest rate hikes in the near term [1][10] - The euro is facing pressure from France's political crisis, following the resignation of Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu, although a new prime minister is expected to be appointed soon [2][11] Currency Performance - The euro last traded 0.09% higher at $1.1639, reversing three consecutive days of losses, but remains nearly 0.9% down for the week [3][11] - The U.S. dollar is up more than 1% for the week, supported by the movements in the yen and euro, while the British pound rose 0.07% to $1.3413 and the Australian dollar increased by 0.11% to $0.6594 [3][11] - The New Zealand dollar edged up 0.1% to $0.5792 after a significant interest rate cut of 50 basis points by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, indicating concerns about the economy [5][11] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials acknowledged increased risks to the U.S. job market that may justify a rate cut, but they remain cautious about high inflation [6][11] - Markets are still pricing in two more rate cuts by year-end, with expectations of approximately 44 basis points of easing by December, despite potential delays in economic data due to a prolonged U.S. government shutdown [7][9][11]

Group 1: Market Overview - The global foreign exchange market experienced significant volatility this week, influenced by trade negotiations, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, global central bank policy dynamics, and geopolitical risks [1][6] - The focus of the market is on the progress of tariff negotiations, the direction of Federal Reserve policies, and the performance of global economic data, with geopolitical risks and trade policy uncertainties remaining key factors affecting market sentiment [6] Group 2: Dollar Performance - The US dollar index showed a fluctuating trend, opening around 99.8, reaching a high of 100.64, with an increase of approximately 1.03% [3] - Initially pressured by expectations that the Federal Reserve might maintain interest rates, the dollar rebounded after comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding inflation and trade policy, closing at 100.42 [3] - The dollar exhibited "bull-bear divergence," with investors remaining cautious due to the complexity of US economic data and global economic uncertainties [3] Group 3: Euro and Pound Performance - The euro experienced a volatile week, initially rising for two consecutive trading days before declining on Wednesday and Thursday, closing with a slight rebound at 1.12511 [3] - The euro is expected to face long-term resistance at 1.2150, with insufficient upward momentum, likely maintaining a narrow ascending channel in the short term [3] - The British pound weakened due to uncertainties surrounding the Bank of England's interest rate decision and economic data, closing around 1.3300 [3] Group 4: Safe-Haven and Commodity Currencies - Safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc performed poorly this week, with the USD/JPY pair showing a V-shaped trend as market risk aversion eased amid tariff negotiations [4] - Commodity currencies were mixed, with the Australian dollar weakening due to global economic growth concerns and commodity price fluctuations, while the Canadian dollar stabilized and rebounded due to rising oil prices [5] Group 5: Global Central Bank Dynamics - Several central banks maintained their policies this week, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, which continued their accommodative stances [7] - The Norwegian central bank kept high interest rates to address rising inflation [7] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority took actions to stabilize the Hong Kong dollar, emphasizing the importance of regional financial stability [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The global capital markets are experiencing significant volatility, with traditional safe-haven assets like gold and foreign currencies gaining strength amidst geopolitical risks and inflation concerns Group 1: Safe-Haven Assets - Gold is gaining prominence due to central bank purchases and a trend towards de-dollarization, highlighting its value retention properties [2] - The Japanese yen is expected to appreciate as the Bank of Japan signals tightening, making it an attractive option for short-term forex arbitrage [2] - The Swiss franc is viewed as a safe haven amid European instability, bolstered by the recovery of trust in the Swiss banking sector [3] Group 2: Alternative Assets - Bitcoin is being recognized for its anti-inflation properties following the approval of Bitcoin futures ETFs, although its volatility remains a concern [4] - Rare earth resources are becoming strategic assets due to supply constraints and rising prices, making them suitable for long-term investment [4] Group 3: Pitfalls of Pseudo-Safe Assets - Oil is facing demand weakness despite OPEC+ production cuts, leading to a return to its commodity nature [5] - Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are losing appeal due to rising interest rates, increasing liquidity risks [5] - Emerging market bonds are under pressure from a strong dollar, with heightened default risks in countries like Turkey and Argentina [5] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Conservative strategy suggests a portfolio of 60% gold ETFs, 30% yen cash, and 10% government bond reverse repos [6] - Aggressive strategy includes 50% Bitcoin, 30% rare earth stocks, and 20% Swiss franc deposits [6] - Balanced strategy recommends dollar-cost averaging in gold, holding Bitcoin, and hedging with yen forex options [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - The search for the next "gold" is ongoing, with potential shifts in value driven by blockchain technology and green energy [7] - The core principles of scarcity and consensus value remain central to identifying safe-haven assets [7]