L&PP 日报 【银河期货】塑料 PP 每日早盘观察（26-02-24） 塑料 L 及 PP：L 仓单持平，PP 仓单累库 【市场情况】 【逻辑分析】 截至节前：大商所 L 合约注册仓单维持在 0.94 万吨，同比累库+43.2%；大商所 PP 合约注册仓单累库+6.6%至 1.87 万吨，同比累库+94.2%。1 月，LLDPE 月度检修 损失量增长至 13.4 万吨，同比增长+37.1%，涨幅扩大，利多 L。 【交易策略】 1.单边：L 主力 2605 合约观望，关注 6600 点前期低位处的支撑；PP 主力 2605 合约少量试空，宜在 6620 点近日低位处设置止损。 L 塑料相关：L 主力 2605 合约报收 6644 点，下跌-90 点或-1.34%。LLDPE 市场 价格横盘整理，节前业者多已离市，报盘稳定为主，市场有价无市。华北大区 LLDPE 主流成交价格在 6520-6900 元/吨，价格稳定。华东大区 LLDPE 主流成交价格在 6620-7000 元/吨，区间价格稳定。 PP 聚丙烯相关：PP 主力 2605 合约报收 6568 点，下跌-80 点或-1.20%。节前国 内 PP 市场 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for both PE and PP is "oscillation", indicating that in the short - term, the market is expected to have an amplitude between - 5% and 5% [3][4] 2. Report's Core View - The short - term market for both PE (LLDPE) and PP lacks obvious driving forces, and it is expected that the market will mainly move in an oscillatory pattern [3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PE Fundamental Changes Supply - This week, China's total polyethylene production was 69.89 tons, a 4.34% increase from last week, and the capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 84.67%, a 3.07 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. Although there were new maintenance plans in some enterprises, the restart of 10 previously shut - down units led to an increase in capacity utilization [3] Demand - The average operating rate of downstream products of Chinese LLDPE/LDPE decreased by 0.9% compared with the previous period, and the average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products decreased by 0.3%. The cumulative import volume in 2025 was 13.407 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.21%. In December 2025, the import volume was 1.3299 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.62% and a month - on - month increase of 25.21% [3] Inventory - The sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 335,000 tons, a 4.37% decrease from the previous period, and the sample inventory of polyethylene social warehouses was 477,400 tons, a 1.43% decrease from the previous period. The inventory decline was mainly due to production enterprises' price cuts to reduce inventory [3] Cost - The oil - based production cost increased by 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous period, while the coal - based, ethylene - based, methanol - based, and ethane - based production costs decreased by 33, 129, 244, and 66 yuan/ton respectively [3] Profit - The import profit of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE decreased compared with the previous period. The overall profit of PE was lower than the same period last year [3][26] Import and Export - PE exports were better than the same period last year [29] PP Fundamental Changes Capacity and Production - This week, the domestic polypropylene production was 784,900 tons, a 0.53% increase from last week and a 9.36% increase from the same period last year. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 76.02%, a 0.40% increase from the previous period [4] Inventory - The total commercial inventory of Chinese polypropylene decreased by 2.21% from the previous period, the production enterprise inventory increased by 0.43%, the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased by 6.15%, and the inventory of sample port enterprises decreased by 7.51%. Overall, the inventory at various levels was higher than the same period last year, except for port inventory which was lower [4][47][54] Downstream Demand - The downstream demand for PP showed significant divergence. The average operating rate of polypropylene increased by 0.34 percentage points to 52.87%. As the temperature dropped, the demand in downstream industries such as plastic weaving and transparent PP entered a seasonal off - season [4] Cost and Profit - This week, the profits of oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and PDH - based PP production were restored, while the profit of PP production from externally purchased propylene declined. The average import profit of Chinese polypropylene samples was - 352.61 yuan/ton, a 44.60% decrease from last week. The production profit was similar to the same period last year [4][82]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for LLDPE and PP are both "Oscillation" [3][4] 2. Core Views - LLDPE is experiencing a low - level recovery, but the rebound is limited. Short - term market trends lack obvious driving forces and are expected to be mainly oscillatory [2][3] - PP has insufficient driving forces, and the rebound is also limited. The short - term market is expected to oscillate [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 LLDPE Analysis Supply - This week, China's polyethylene production totaled 686,800 tons, a 0.52% increase from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers was 83.67%, a 0.43 - percentage - point increase from the previous period [3] Demand - The average operating rate of LLDPE/LDPE downstream products in China decreased by 0.2% from the previous period. The overall operating rate of agricultural film decreased by 1.1%, while the operating rate of PE packaging film increased by 0.6%. In November, China's polyethylene imports were 1.0622 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.93% and a month - on - month increase of 5.04% [3] Inventory - The sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 395,400 tons, a 24,700 - ton increase from the previous period, a 6.66% month - on - month increase. The inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses was 475,100 tons, a 3,600 - ton increase from the previous period, a 0.77% month - on - month increase and a 19.11% year - on - year increase [3] Basis - The current basis of the main contract is around 160, with the futures price at a discount [3] Profit - The costs of coal - to - and ethane - to - polyethylene production increased by 59 yuan/ton and 248 yuan/ton respectively compared to the previous period. The costs of oil - to - and ethylene - to - polyethylene production decreased by 5 yuan/ton and 129 yuan/ton respectively. The cost of methanol - to - polyethylene production remained the same as last week [3] Valuation - The absolute spot price is low, and the main contract is at a discount [3] Macro - Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, posing a risk of rising international oil prices. The macro sentiment is positive, and the RMB has appreciated [3] 3.2 PP Analysis Supply - This week, China's polypropylene production was 779,200 tons, a 13,400 - ton decrease (1.69% decline) from last week and a 38,700 - ton increase (5.23% increase) compared to the same period last year. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 75.47%, a 1.27% month - on - month decrease [4] Demand - The average operating rate decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 52.60%. After New Year's Day, cold weather in northern China affected outdoor construction, leading to a decline in the demand for ton bags, woven bags, and outdoor pipe network construction. The CPP sample enterprise average operating rate decreased by 2.18% from last week [4] Inventory - The total commercial inventory of Chinese polypropylene was 743,500 tons, a 9,300 - ton increase from the previous period, a 1.26% month - on - month increase. The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 467,700 tons, a 23,000 - ton decrease from the previous period, a 4.69% month - on - month decrease [4] Basis - The current basis of the main contract is around - 254, with the futures price at a premium [4] Profit - This week, the profits of oil - to -, coal - to -, methanol - to -, externally - sourced propylene - to -, and PDH - to - polypropylene production all recovered. The average weekly profit of Chinese polypropylene import samples was - 288.03 yuan/ton, a 55.30 - yuan increase from last week, a 16.11% month - on - month increase [4] Valuation - The absolute spot price is low, and the main contract is at a premium [4] Macro Policy - Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, posing a risk of rising international oil prices. The macro sentiment is positive, and the RMB has appreciated [4] 3.3 Main Weekly Data Changes Review - PP futures price increased from 6348 yuan/ton to 6514 yuan/ton, a 2.61% increase; PE futures price increased from 6472 yuan/ton to 6674 yuan/ton, a 3.12% increase [5] - PP production decreased by 12.21%; PE production increased by 0.52% [5] - PP spot price increased from 6140 yuan/ton to 6260 yuan/ton, a 1.95% increase; LLDPE spot price increased from 6310 yuan/ton to 6410 yuan/ton, a 1.58% increase [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For LLDPE, the spot price is stable, and the futures market is oscillating with a slightly upward trend. In the short - term, there is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to oscillate mainly [2]. - For PP, the spot price is stable, and the futures market is oscillating with a slightly downward trend. In the short - term, there is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to oscillate mainly [3]. 3. Summary by Directory LLDPE Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's LLDPE production was 318,900 tons, up 3.21% from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers was 83.95%, an increase of 1.86 percentage points from the previous period. There were no new maintenance devices this week, and some existing devices restarted [2]. - **Demand**: The average operating rate of Chinese LLDPE/LDPE downstream products increased by 1.64% from the previous period. The cumulative import volume in 2025 was 8.9816 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.84%. In August, China's polyethylene imports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 488,600 tons, up 27.67% from the previous period. The inventory trend changed from decreasing to increasing. The social sample warehouse inventory of polyethylene was 546,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.44% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.44% [2]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 315, and the futures price is at a discount [2]. - **Profit**: This week, the cost of ethane production increased, while the costs of oil - based, coal - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based production decreased. International oil prices fell due to the easing of the Palestine - Israel situation and potential risks from US tariff issues [2]. - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a deep discount [2]. - **Macro Policy**: The macro - sentiment has subsided, trading has returned to fundamentals, and the futures market is oscillating with a slightly upward trend [2]. PP Analysis - **Supply**: The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 77.75%, a month - on - month increase of 1.14%. The average capacity utilization rate of Sinopec was 79.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17% [3]. - **Demand**: The operating rate increased by 0.59 percentage points to 51.45%. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the demand for terminal food packaging and medical non - woven fabrics increased [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 681,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.96%. The port sample inventory and the inventory of trading companies also increased [3]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around - 12, and the futures price is around par [3]. - **Profit**: This week, the profits of external propylene - based and PDH - based PP production improved, while the profits of oil - based, coal - based, and methanol - based PP production declined. International oil prices rose, and the price of thermal coal remained strong [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a premium [3]. - **Macro Policy**: The macro - sentiment has subsided, trading has returned to fundamentals, and the futures market is oscillating with a slightly downward trend [3]. Main Weekly Data Changes - **Prices**: PP futures price decreased by 1.90%, PE futures price decreased by 1.62%, PP spot price decreased by 2.61%, and LLDPE spot price decreased by 0.69% [5]. - **Production**: PP production decreased by 7.25%, PE production increased by 3.04%, HDPE production increased by 1.45% [5]. - **Operating Rates**: PP operating rate increased by 5.40%, PE operating rate increased by 2.26% [5]. - **Inventory**: PP factory inventory increased by 52.16%, PE social inventory decreased by 4.63% [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "oscillating operation" for the plastics industry [1] Core Viewpoint - The plastics market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the near future due to factors such as increased supply from restarted and newly - commissioned plants, low downstream demand, high inventory pressure, and falling energy prices [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Recommend to close long positions. The restart of maintenance devices has increased the plastics operating rate to about 87%, reaching a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE has decreased to 38.69%, with a decline in agricultural film orders and a slight increase in packaging film orders. Petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The US tariff increase and restricted ethane imports, along with the cooling of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and falling oil prices, contribute to the expected low - level oscillation of plastics [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastics 2509 contract oscillated with reducing positions, closing at 7271 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The trading volume decreased by 12,263 lots to 461,763 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most PE spot prices fell, with price changes ranging from - 200 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 7260 - 7590 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9580 - 9830 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7700 - 8100 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: The restart of maintenance devices in Dushanzi Petrochemical and Tarim Petrochemical has increased the plastics operating rate to about 87%, reaching a neutral level [1][4] - **Demand**: As of the week of June 20, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 38.69%. Agricultural film entered the off - season, with a decline in orders and a slight increase in raw material inventory. Packaging film orders increased slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - **Inventory**: Petrochemical inventory decreased to 76.5 tons on Wednesday, 2.5 tons higher than the same period last year. It is at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - **Raw Materials**: Brent crude oil 08 contract fell to $68/barrel. Northeast Asian ethylene prices remained flat at $860/ton, and Southeast Asian ethylene prices remained flat at $850/ton [4]

Group 1 - The main plastic futures contract experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 7339.00 yuan, with a closing price of 7339.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.66% [1] - Zhonghui Futures suggests a bearish outlook for plastic, citing an increase in supply with 2.08 million tons of new capacity from companies like Wanhua and the startup of Shandong New Era's facility [2] - Shenyin Wanguo Futures indicates that the short-term trend for plastic will continue to rebound and repair prices, supported by a recent rebound in international crude oil prices [3] Group 2 - The demand side shows a decline in agricultural film operating rates for four consecutive weeks, indicating weak demand [2] - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is positive due to the recent consensus reached during the China-US meeting, which may support plastic prices [3] - The recommendation from Zhonghui Futures is to gradually take profits on long positions and avoid chasing higher prices, while monitoring the price trends of crude oil and coal [2]