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铝产业链日评:国内铝土矿8月供需预期偏松,国内电解铝社会库存量环比增加-20250827
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 02:13
| 变量名称 2025-08-26 | 2025-08-25 | 2025-08-20 | 较昨日变动 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 听明走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价 20715 | 20770 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 20535 | -55.00 | | 成交量(手) 103054 沪铝期货活跃合约 持仓量(手) 251 409 | 146160 248343 | 128168 228028 | -43,106.00 3.066.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 库存(吨) 56274 | 56670 | | -396. 00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 沪铝基差 SMM A00电解铝平均价 20780 | | ...
铝周报:沪铝或延续震荡运行-20250818
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 02:23
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - Aluminum prices are likely to show a fluctuating trend. Recently, aluminum price fluctuations have been small, the basis has changed little, and there are limited arbitrage opportunities. It is advisable to wait and see for option contracts for the time being [6][41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2509 of Shanghai aluminum futures mainly showed a fluctuating market, ranging from around 20,585 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,850 yuan/ton [8]. - Last week, the LME aluminum futures price fluctuated, with the contract price ranging from 2,581 - 2,639 US dollars/ton [11]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect - From January to July, China's macro - data weakened. The national real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0%. The national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.88229 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. The US Treasury Secretary called on the Federal Reserve to start a rate - cut cycle, suggesting a reduction of at least 150 basis points from the current level and a 50 - basis - point cut in September [5][14][40]. 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of August 8, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 20,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 20,600 yuan/ton, 20,880 yuan/ton, 20,640 yuan/ton, and 20,590 yuan/ton respectively. The electrolytic aluminum premium or discount was maintained at around a discount of 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [19]. 3.4 Supply and Demand Situation - As of August 14, 2025, the total domestic alumina inventory was 37,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous period. The monthly electrolytic aluminum output in July was 3.78 million tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [26]. 3.5 Inventory Situation - As of August 15, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 120,653 tons, an increase of 7,039 tons from the previous week. The LME aluminum inventory was 479,550 tons, a decrease of 125 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 2.94%. As of August 14, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 526,000 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons from the previous day [32].
伦铝价格区间震荡 8月12日LME铝库存增加1250吨
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-13 03:12
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in LME aluminum futures prices, with a current price of $2620 per ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.10% from the opening price [1] - On August 12, LME aluminum futures opened at $2582.0, reached a high of $2631.0, and closed at $2624.5, marking an increase of 1.53% [1] - The current spot price ratio of electrolytic aluminum in Shanghai to London is 7.96, indicating an import loss of -1363.42 yuan per ton, which is an improvement from the previous day's loss of -1546.36 yuan per ton [1] Group 2 - In the first week of August 2025, Brazil exported a total of 25.93 million tons of aluminum ore and aluminum concentrate, significantly lower than 53.24 million tons in August of the previous year, with a daily average shipment of 4.32 million tons, up 78.58% from 2.42 million tons last August [1] - As of August 12, LME reported aluminum registered warrants at 462,875 tons and canceled warrants at 14,225 tons, remaining unchanged, while total aluminum inventory increased by 1,250 tons to 477,100 tons [1]
铝周报:沪铝或延续震荡运行-20250811
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 02:46
报告日期:2025 年 8 月 11 日星期一 中国国家统计局7 月31 日公布,受制造业进入传统生产淡季, 部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影响,7 月份中国制造业采 购经理指数(PMI)降至 49.3%。7 月份制造业 PMI 中,生产指数和 新订单指数分别为 50.5%和 49.4%,均比上月下降,制造业生产活 动继续保持扩张,市场需求有所放缓。铁路船舶航空航天设备、 计算机通信电子设备等行业生产指数和新订单指数持续位于扩张 区间,产需两端较为活跃。氧化铝厂开工率持续回升,氧化铝在 产产能逐步上升,氧化铝库存仍然处于低位。铝材产量同比增长, 铝合金产量连续多月快速增长。沪铝库存小幅下降,LME 铝库存 持续回升,国内电解铝隐性市场库存小幅下降。 【后市展望】 研究报告 铝周报 沪铝或延续震荡运行 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: | | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | | 有色板块研究员:刘江 | | | | | | 期货从业资格证号:F0305841 | | | | ...
铝周报:欧洲央行维持利率不变,沪铝或延续震荡运行-20250728
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 02:53
研究报告 铝周报 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格: 期货从业资格证号:F0305841 投资咨询资格证号:Z0016251 电话:0931-8582647 邮箱:451591573@qq.com 欧洲央行维持利率不变,沪铝或延续震荡运行 摘要: 【宏观面、基本面分析】 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员:刘江 报告日期:2025 年 7 月 28 日星期一 欧洲央行行长拉加德表示,不干预任何汇率;关注贸易谈判 的路径;6 月的基准情景保持不变;目前通胀率为 2%,欧洲央行 处于良好位置;企业利润继续抵消工资上涨;薪资增长正在朝着 正确的方向发展,欧洲央行维持主要再融资利率在 2.15%不变。 中国财政部数据显示,2025 年上半年,全国一般公共预算支出 141271 亿元,同比增长 3.4%。国家发展改革委、市场监管总局发 布关于《中华人民共和国价格法修正草案(征求意见稿)》,拟 进一步明确不正当价格行为认定标准,完善低价倾销认定标准, 规范市场价格秩序,治理"内卷式"竞争。氧化铝厂开工率有所 回升,企业利润持续改善,氧化铝库存仍然处于低位。铝材产量 小幅上升,行业开工逐步改善。沪铝库存结 ...
铝周报:沪铝或延续震荡运行-20250630
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 11:20
研究报告 铝周报 沪铝或延续震荡运行 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | 有色板块研究员:刘江 | | 期货从业资格证号:F0305841 | | 投资咨询资格证号:Z0016251 | | 电话:0931-8582647 | | 邮箱:451591573@qq.com | 摘要: 【宏观面、基本面分析】 5 月份,规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长 5.8%。从环比看, 5 月份,规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.61%。2025 年 1—5 月 份,全国固定资产投资 191947 亿元,同比增长 3.7%。其中,民 间固定资产投资同比持平。从环比看,5 月份固定资产投资增长 0.05%。铝土矿进口量环比大幅下降。全球氧化铝供需延续偏紧格 局。氧化铝库存继续增长,但仍然处于底部区域。沪铝库存加速 下降,库存水平处于近年来极低位。LME 铝库存小幅上升,电解 铝国内隐性市场库存延续下降趋势。 【后市展望】 铝价或以震荡趋势为主。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考,请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 【风险提示】 美联储政策变化超预期, ...
中国CPI指数环比下降,沪铝或震荡运行
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 02:14
研究报告 铝周报 摘要: 【宏观面、基本面分析】 美国最新经济数据显示,通胀压力比预期缓和,而劳动力市 场却可能正在恶化,美联储降息预期升温。国家统计局数据显示, 2025 年 5 月份,全国居民消费价格同比下降 0.1%,全国居民消费 价格环比下降 0.2%。2025 年 5 月份,全国工业生产者出厂价格同 比下降 3.3%,环比下降 0.4%。氧化铝企业开工率小幅上升,氧化 铝库存逐步回升,但仍然处于低位。电解铝产能延续缓慢增长趋 势。沪铝库存加速下降,库存水平处于近年来极低位。LME 铝库 存小幅下降,注销仓单占比小幅下降。 【后市展望】 铝价或以震荡趋势为主。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考,请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 【风险提示】 中国 CPI 指数环比下降,沪铝或震荡运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员:刘江 期货从业资格证号:F0305841 投资咨询资格证号:Z0016251 电话:0931-8582647 邮箱:451591573@qq.com 报告日期:2025 年 6 月 16 日星期一 美联储政策变化超预期,经济数据变化 ...
铝周报:铝价或以震荡趋势运行-20250526
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-05-26 06:41
Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The aluminum price is expected to show a fluctuating trend [1][6][43] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2507 of Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated between around 20,010 yuan/ton and a maximum of about 20,300 yuan/ton [3][10] - Last week, the LME aluminum futures price fluctuated between 2,430 - 2,497 US dollars/ton [14] 2. Spot Analysis - As of May 23, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 20,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 20,410 yuan/ton, 20,585 yuan/ton, 20,435 yuan/ton, and 20,400 yuan/ton respectively. As of the same date, the premium of electrolytic aluminum remained at around a premium of 80 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [17] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - In March 2025, the alumina supply - demand surplus was 30,000 tons, compared with a supply - demand gap of 110,000 tons in the previous month. From a seasonal perspective, the current supply - demand balance is at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years. In March 2025, the cumulative supply - demand surplus of electrolytic aluminum was 277,200 tons. From a seasonal perspective, the current supply - demand balance is at an average level compared to the past 5 years [23] - As of April 2025, domestic imports of bauxite were 20,684,045.16 tons, an increase of 4,225,390.6 tons from the previous month [29] 4. Inventory Situation - As of May 23, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 141,289 tons, a decrease of 14,791 tons from the previous week. As of May 22, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 386,900 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased slightly to 15.99% [33] - As of May 22, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 519,000 tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons from the previous day. The inventory in Shanghai was 36,000 tons, in Wuxi was 150,000 tons, in Hangzhou was 15,000 tons, in Foshan was 228,000 tons, in Tianjin was 21,000 tons, in Shenyang was 1,000 tons, in Gongyi was 56,000 tons, and in Chongqing was 7,000 tons [33] 5. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The US Supreme Court made a ruling on a personnel appointment and removal appeal case of a federal independent agency, hinting that the status of Federal Reserve board members is special and will be specially protected from being dismissed by the president. The US bond yield curve steepened significantly, with the 30 - year Treasury yield breaking through 5%. The Japanese government bond yield continued to rise, and the 40 - year Treasury yield reached a new high. The global alumina supply - demand continued to be in surplus, and the electrolytic aluminum market also showed a supply - demand surplus. China's bauxite imports increased rapidly. The Shanghai aluminum inventory decreased rapidly and was at a low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased slightly [5][42] 6. Future Outlook - The aluminum price is expected to show a fluctuating trend [6][43]
铝周报:氧化铝产能出现下降,铝价或震荡偏强运行-20250512
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 06:06
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of aluminum is expected to show a mainly oscillating and moderately upward trend [5][37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2506 of Shanghai aluminum futures mainly showed an oscillating and weakening trend, ranging from around 19,310 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,050 yuan/ton [2][9]. - Last week, the price of LME aluminum futures showed an oscillating and weakening trend, with the contract price running around 2,377 - 2,460 US dollars/ton [12]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of May 9, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River non - ferrous metal market was 19,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 19,640 yuan/ton, 19,840 yuan/ton, 19,665 yuan/ton, and 19,635 yuan/ton respectively. As of the same date, the premium or discount of electrolytic aluminum remained around par, unchanged from the previous trading day [15]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - In April 2025, the domestic in - production capacity of alumina was 87.4 million tons, with a total capacity of 110.82 million tons and an operating rate of 78.87%. The domestic operating rate was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. As of April 2025, the in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.099 million tons, with a total capacity of 45.182 million tons and an operating rate of 97.6%. From a seasonal perspective, the operating rate was at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [21]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - As of May 9, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 169,665 tons, a decrease of 6,192 tons from the previous week. As of May 8, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 405,575 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 38.13%. - As of May 8, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 587,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous day. The inventories in Shanghai, Wuxi, Hangzhou, Foshan, Tianjin, Shenyang, Gongyi, and Chongqing were 31,000 tons, 196,000 tons, 14,000 tons, 237,000 tons, 20,000 tons, 1,000 tons, 74,000 tons, and 7,000 tons respectively [27]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve admitted that the uncertainty of the economic outlook has further increased, and "the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased." In April, the one - year inflation expectation in the US remained stable at 3.6%, while the three - year inflation expectation rose from 3% to 4.2%, reaching the highest level since July 2022. The inflation expectation in the US has risen, and the pressure on the employment market has increased. - The total capacity of alumina continues to grow, while the in - production capacity has decreased. The capacity of electrolytic aluminum continues to climb, and the operating rate remains at a high level. The inventory of Shanghai aluminum continues to decline, and the inventory level is at a low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory has decreased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants has decreased slightly [4][36].
铝周报:美联储政策或转向,铝需求有转弱趋势-20250414
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-04-14 03:19
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Last week, the price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum futures AL2505 fluctuated downward, ranging from around 20,335 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,635 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum futures price dropped significantly and then gradually entered an oscillatory trend, with the contract price running around 2,300 - 2,427 US dollars/ton. - China's major economic data is gradually stabilizing, and the expectation of introducing more stimulus policies is increasing. The inventory of alumina continues to be at an ultra - low level, while its production capacity has increased significantly and the operating rate has decreased slightly. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level, and the operating rate continues to rise. The national aluminum rod inventory has decreased significantly, and the inventory level is at a relatively high level in recent years. The Shanghai aluminum inventory continues to decline, and the inventory level is at a relatively low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory has decreased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants has decreased slightly. - China will increase the tariff on US goods from 84% to 125%. At the current tariff level, US goods exported to China have no market acceptance possibility, and the impact of tariffs may weaken. Aluminum prices may mainly show a wide - range oscillatory trend. [3][5][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Price**: Last week, the price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum futures AL2505 fluctuated downward, ranging from around 20,335 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,635 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum futures price dropped significantly and then gradually entered an oscillatory trend, with the contract price running around 2,300 - 2,427 US dollars/ton. [8][12] 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of April 11, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 19,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 19,885 yuan/ton, 20,105 yuan/ton, 19,920 yuan/ton, and 19,885 yuan/ton respectively. As of April 11, 2025, the premium or discount of electrolytic aluminum was maintained at around a premium of 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. [15] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **Alumina Inventory**: As of April 10, 2025, the total domestic alumina inventory was 0.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.7 million tons from the previous period. The inventory in Lianyungang was 0 million tons, in Bayuquan was 0.3 million tons, and in Qingdao Port was 0.2 million tons. The total domestic inventory was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years. [21] - **Aluminum Rod Inventory**: As of April 10, 2025, the total national aluminum rod inventory was 223,800 tons, a decrease of 16,300 tons compared with the previous period. In terms of regions, the inventory in Foshan was 132,000 tons, in Wuxi was 38,500 tons, and in Nanchang was 16,500 tons. From a seasonal perspective, the national inventory was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years. [25] 3.4 Inventory Situation - **Global Visible Inventory**: As of April 11, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 205,627 tons, a decrease of 9,447 tons from the previous week. As of April 10, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 446,325 tons, a decrease of 3,175 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 43.82%. - **Domestic Invisible Inventory**: As of April 10, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 697,000 tons, a decrease of 34,000 tons from the previous day. The inventory in Shanghai was 23,000 tons, in Wuxi was 251,000 tons, in Hangzhou was 13,000 tons, in Foshan was 250,000 tons, in Tianjin was 20,000 tons, in Shenyang was 1,000 tons, in Gongyi was 120,000 tons, and in Chongqing was 11,000 tons. [28] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Fed officials have indicated that they are not in a hurry to cut interest rates in the short term, and the policy divergence between the Fed and the US government is emerging. China's major economic data is gradually stabilizing, and the expectation of introducing more stimulus policies is increasing. The inventory of alumina continues to be at an ultra - low level, while its production capacity has increased significantly and the operating rate has decreased slightly. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level, and the operating rate continues to rise. The national aluminum rod inventory has decreased significantly, and the inventory level is at a relatively high level in recent years. The Shanghai aluminum inventory continues to decline, and the inventory level is at a relatively low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory has decreased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants has decreased slightly. [5][38] 3.6 Future Outlook - China will increase the tariff on US goods from 84% to 125%. At the current tariff level, US goods exported to China have no market acceptance possibility, and the impact of tariffs may weaken. Aluminum prices may mainly show a wide - range oscillatory trend. [6][39]