Roundup | Chemical Distillate Lithium Run-Up to Start the Year; ICIS Outlook '26 on Value Chains Relevant to Commodity Chemicals 09 Jan 2026 14:39:14 ET CHEMICALCOMMENTARY Lithium prices have rallied to start the year, with lithium carbonate (battery-grade) prices rising ~14% YTD to ~$17k/t ex-VAT and lithium hydroxide prices rising ~19% YTD to ~$15k/t ex-VAT. ALB shares are up ~14% YTD on the bullish lithium sentiment even after a strong rally in 2H25. China's battery materials team notes downstream cathod ...

Key Takeaways RIO is scaling lithium fast via Arcadium Lithium buy and other projects in South America. LAC's Thacker Pass aims for 40,000 tons annually, backed by DOE equity and loan to secure U.S. lithium supply.ALB and SQM are also making efforts to expand global lithium capacity, and boost output, efficiency and scale.After a tough 2025, the global lithium market is gearing up for a new growth cycle. Prices fell about 90% by mid-year from their 2022 peak levels as electric vehicle (EV) demand slowed and ...

12 December 2025 ab Global Research China Lithium Raise price targets for China Lithium companies due to strong BESS demand We raise our lithium price assumptions Along with UBS's Global Basic Materials team, we raise our estimates for China lithium carbonate average spot prices (including VAT) 35%/122%/100% to Rmb135k/200k/180k/t in 2026/27/28. We are now 56%/79%/52% above consensus. Our optimistic view is driven by higher demand growth driven by Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) in China and ex China ...

Rock Tech's proposed Lithium Conversion Facility (the "Converter") in Red Rock, Ontario directly aligns with the CMPF's mandate to support midstream critical minerals processing projects in the province. The Converter is designed to deliver domestic lithium conversion capacity for battery-grade products, reduce reliance on offshore processing, and anchor downstream investment in Ontario's electric vehicle and energy storage supply chain. The CMPF represents a clear signal to global markets that Ontario is c ...

China Battery Materials Flash | 27 Nov 2025 11:28:30 ET │ 11 pages Lithium into 4th week of Nov – All eyes on JXW CITI'S TAKE The latest weekly dataset suggests brine-based lithium carbonate output should swing to the downtrend due to the winter seasonality, bringing the weekly lithium output to be down by 265 tons. According to ZE Consulting, lithium production pipeline is estimated to be up by 4% MoM to reach a monthly record high level at 94,600 tons in Dec-25. Within that, we believe ZE Consulting has f ...

Group 1 - The American Battery Technology Company held its Fiscal Fourth Year Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Call, welcoming participants and indicating that a recording of the call will be available on their website [1] - The presentation includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, which may lead to actual results differing from anticipated outcomes [2] - The CEO and CTO, Ryan Melsert, will discuss the company's two lines of business: lithium-ion battery recycling and the conversion of claystone to lithium hydroxide [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview Basic Materials - China - **Copper and Gold Prices**: LME copper price increased by 1.1% WoW to US$9,822/t, while the China price rose by 0.6% WoW to RMB79,450/t, driven by expectations of a rate cut [1][33]. - **Aluminum Prices**: LME aluminum price decreased by 0.3% WoW to US$2,618/t, with the China price slightly increasing by 0.1% WoW to RMB20,730/t [1][44]. - **Gold Prices**: COMEX gold spot price rose by 1% WoW to US$3,407/oz [1][52]. - **Lithium Prices**: Average price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 5.1% WoW to RMB79.7k/t, while lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.8% WoW to RMB76.9k/t [1][56]. Steel Industry - **Steel Prices and Margins**: Rebar price decreased by 0.1% WoW to RMB3,266/t, while HRC price increased by 0.3% WoW to RMB3,466/t. Iron ore price rose by 3% WoW due to expectations of a lower Fed rate [2][64]. - **Cash Margins**: Spot rebar cash margin shrank by RMB55/t WoW to -RMB34/t, and HRC cash margin decreased by RMB28/t WoW to -RMB125/t [2][75]. - **Inventory and Consumption**: Finished steel products inventory increased by 1.9% WoW to 14.7 million tons, and apparent consumption rose by 0.6% WoW to 8.6 million tons [2][85]. Cement Industry - **Cement Prices**: Average national cement price increased by 0.35% WoW to RMB327/t, with a notable increase in Ningxia by RMB30/t [3][88]. - **Demand and Inventory**: Nationwide shipment ratio decreased by 0.6ppt WoW to 41.6%, while inventory ratio was at 60.5%, down 1.1ppt WoW [3][21]. Glass and Paper Industries - **Glass Prices**: National average float glass price decreased by 1.34% WoW to RMB1,189/t due to weak demand [3][99]. - **Paper Prices**: Paper price increased by 0.7% WoW to RMB3,481/t, supported by price hikes from paper mills [3][100]. Solar Materials - **Polysilicon Prices**: N-type polysilicon and granular silicon prices increased by RMB1/kg WoW to RMB51/kg and RMB47/kg, respectively [3][110]. - **Solar Glass Prices**: Prices for coated solar glass remained stable at RMB18.8/sqm and RMB11.0/sqm [3][122]. Additional Insights - **Inventory Trends**: Lithium carbonate inventory at smelters decreased by 11% to 52kt, while downstream inventory increased by 13% to 46kt, leading to a total sample lithium carbonate inventory increase of 3.6% MoM to 142kt [1][60]. - **Market Dynamics**: The steel industry is facing pressure from rising iron ore prices, while the cement market shows signs of recovery despite regional demand declines due to environmental inspections [2][88]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the performance and trends across various sectors within the basic materials industry in China.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Lithium - **Current Outlook**: The company has shifted from a bearish stance over the past two years to a more optimistic view, calling for higher lithium prices due to supply disruptions in China and potential for further disruptions [2][22][34]. Price Forecasts - **Spodumene Prices**: - CY26: Increased by 32% to US$1,250/t - CY27: Increased by 10% to US$1,150/t - CY28: Increased by 23% to US$1,350/t - Current spot price is US$940/t [2][22]. - **Long-term Price Assumption**: Remains unchanged at US$1,200/t for spodumene [5][22]. Company-Specific Insights Pilbara Minerals (PLS) - **Financial Position**: - FY25 results showed no material changes, with a sector-leading balance sheet of A$599 million in net cash [3][12]. - **Production Guidance**: - Expected production of 880kt at A$590/t FOB, slightly above guidance of 820-870kt [3][12]. - **Future Projects**: - Ngangaju is expected to restart production in FY27, with an optimized DFS for Colina planned for June FY26 [3]. - **Earnings Upgrades**: - Significant EPS upgrades for FY26, FY27, and FY28, with EPS increasing by over 100% for FY26 [10][12]. - **Price Target**: Upgraded to A$2.30/share, a 44% increase from previous estimates [5][12]. IGO Limited (IGO) - **Dividend Outlook**: - Expected to return to healthy dividends in FY26 despite challenges in joint ventures [4][12]. - **Production Challenges**: - Facing write-downs and cash burn at Kwinana, with a disappointing outlook for Greenbushes [4][12]. - **Earnings Upgrades**: - EPS for FY26 increased by over 100% compared to previous estimates [10][12]. - **Price Target**: Upgraded to A$5.75/share, a 20% increase from previous estimates [5][12]. Market Dynamics - **Supply Disruptions**: - Anticipated continued disruptions in Chinese lithium supply, leading to further price increases [22][34]. - **Production Capacity**: - Greenbushes is positioned well for near-term production, with guidance of 1,500-1,650kt SC production at a cash cost of A$310-360/t [34]. - **Long-term Demand**: - Demand for battery materials remains strong, with a focus on electric vehicles (EVs) and battery energy storage systems (BESS) [26][34]. Conclusion - The lithium market is expected to experience price increases due to supply disruptions, with both Pilbara Minerals and IGO positioned to benefit from these changes. Upgrades in earnings forecasts and price targets reflect a more optimistic outlook for the sector moving forward.

Summary of Key Points from J.P. Morgan's Lithium Industry Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the lithium industry, specifically detailing the export and import data from China for lithium hydroxide (LiOH) and lithium carbonate. Key Insights on Lithium Hydroxide (LiOH) - **Export Decline**: In July, lithium hydroxide exports from China fell by 86% year-over-year (y/y) to 1.2kt compared to 9.1kt in the same month last year. This represents the lowest monthly export level for the year [2] - **Year-to-Date (YTD) Performance**: Net exports for the year to date are 21.2kt, which is 71% lower than the same period last year. Full-year 2024 net exports are projected to be 113kt, down 11% from 2023 [2] - **Historical Context**: FY2023 net exports were 126.2kt, a 40% increase y/y, while 2022 net exports were 90.3kt, which was 29% higher than 2021 [2][4] Key Insights on Lithium Carbonate - **Import Decline**: July lithium carbonate imports decreased by 43% y/y to 13.8kt from 24.2kt in the previous year. YTD net imports are 128.7kt, roughly flat compared to the same period in 2024 [2] - **Future Projections**: Full-year 2024 net imports are expected to be 231kt, a 55% increase compared to 2023. In 2023, net imports were 149.2kt, which was 19% higher y/y [2] - **Price Trends**: The average import price for lithium carbonate decreased by 1% month-over-month (m/m) and 9% y/y in July, averaging $9,987 per ton [2] Price Trends for LiOH and Lithium Carbonate - **LiOH Export Price**: The average export price for lithium hydroxide decreased by 8% m/m and 39% y/y in July, averaging $9,961 per ton [2] - **Lithium Carbonate Price**: The average price for lithium carbonate imports was $9,987 per ton in July, reflecting a downward trend in pricing [2][10] Historical Trade Data - **LiOH Trade Data**: Historical data shows a significant increase in LiOH exports from 2017 to 2023, with a peak in 2023 at 130.0kt, but a projected decline in 2024 [3][4] - **Lithium Carbonate Trade Data**: Similar trends are observed in lithium carbonate, with exports peaking in 2023 at 158.7kt, followed by a projected decrease in 2024 [6][7] Additional Observations - **Market Dynamics**: The significant drop in exports and imports may indicate a shift in market dynamics, possibly due to changes in demand or supply chain disruptions [2] - **Future Outlook**: The projections for 2024 suggest a cautious outlook for the lithium market, with potential implications for pricing and availability [2][4] This summary encapsulates the critical data and insights from the J.P. Morgan report on the lithium industry, highlighting trends in exports, imports, and pricing that are essential for understanding the current market landscape.

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for companies IGO, NST, NEM, CMM, BGL, VAU, WGX, and PNR, while recommending a "Sell" rating for MIN and RRL [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential upside for various companies based on their current pricing and NAV valuations, with IGO showing a 2% downside to its price target and NST having a 14% upside [4]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of gold and lithium sectors, with specific companies positioned favorably for growth [4][8]. Company Summaries - **IGO**: Rated "Buy" with a market cap of US$2.1 billion, current price A$4.32, and a 12-month price target of A$5.03, indicating a 2% downside [4]. - **NST**: Rated "Buy" with a market cap of US$17.4 billion, current price A$18.56, and a 12-month price target of A$22.53, indicating a 14% upside [4]. - **NEM**: Rated "Buy" with a market cap of US$66.7 billion, current price A$90.58, and a 12-month price target of A$98.83, indicating a 7% upside [4]. - **CMM**: Rated "Buy" with a market cap of US$2.7 billion, current price A$9.44, and a 12-month price target of A$10.09, indicating a 6% upside [4]. - **BGL**: Rated "Buy" with a market cap of US$0.9 billion, current price A$0.93, and a 12-month price target of A$0.97, indicating a 29% upside [4]. - **MIN**: Rated "Sell" with a market cap of US$3.2 billion, current price A$24.44, and a 12-month price target of A$20.30, indicating an 18% downside [4]. - **RRL**: Rated "Sell" with a market cap of US$2.2 billion, current price A$4.53, and a 12-month price target of A$4.24, indicating a 1% downside [4]. Commodity & FX Forecasts - The report includes forecasts for various commodities, with gold expected to reach US$3,503 per ounce in Q4 2025 and lithium carbonate projected at US$8,005 per ton in 2025 [8]. - Nickel prices are forecasted to stabilize around US$7.17 per pound in Q4 2025, while copper is expected to be around US$4.52 per pound [8].