Summary of Australian Lithium & Gold Coverage Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Australian lithium and gold sectors, providing coverage summaries, forecasts, and spot pricing scenarios as of February 6, 2026 Key Companies and Ratings - **Buy Recommendations**: NST, NEM, CMM, BGL, RMS, WGX, PNR, WA1 [4] - **Sell Recommendations**: PLS, LTR, MIN, EVN [4] Company-Specific Insights - **IGO**: Neutral rating, Nickel/Lithium, Market cap: US$4.3 billion, Current price: A$8.21, Downside: 15%, NAV: A$5.28, NTM EV/EBITDA: 12.4x [4] - **PLS**: Sell rating, Spodumene Lithium/Specialties, Market cap: US$9.2 billion, Current price: A$4.10, Downside: 27%, NAV: A$2.68, NTM EV/EBITDA: 14.4x [4] - **LTR**: Sell rating, Spodumene, Market cap: US$3.6 billion, Current price: A$1.64, Downside: 11%, NAV: A$1.07, NTM EV/EBITDA: 19.8x [4] - **MIN**: Sell rating, Fe/Li/Crushing, Market cap: US$7.2 billion, Current price: A$52.43, Downside: 14%, NAV: A$37.40, NTM EV/EBITDA: 6.9x [4] - **NST**: Buy rating, Gold, Market cap: US$26.4 billion, Current price: A$26.57, Upside: 19%, NAV: A$30.14, NTM EV/EBITDA: 7.1x [4] - **EVN**: Sell rating, Gold/Copper, Market cap: US$20.0 billion, Current price: A$14.18, Downside: 10%, NAV: A$12.28, NTM EV/EBITDA: 7.5x [4] - **NEM**: Buy rating, Gold, Market cap: US$118.4 billion, Current price: A$154.72, Upside: 20%, NAV: A$172.72, NTM EV/EBITDA: 6.0x [4] - **CMM**: Buy rating, Gold, Market cap: US$4.2 billion, Current price: A$13.11, Upside: 34%, NAV: A$16.50, NTM EV/EBITDA: 9.7x [4] - **BGL**: Buy rating, Gold, Market cap: US$1.8 billion, Current price: A$1.65, Upside: 21%, NAV: A$1.98, NTM EV/EBITDA: 4.9x [4] - **RMS**: Buy rating, Gold, Market cap: US$5.9 billion, Current price: A$4.29, Upside: 25%, NAV: A$5.19, NTM EV/EBITDA: 9.8x [4] - **WGX**: Buy rating, Gold, Market cap: US$4.5 billion, Current price: A$6.76, Upside: 37%, NAV: A$8.85, NTM EV/EBITDA: 4.4x [4] - **PNR**: Buy rating, Gold, Market cap: US$1.3 billion, Current price: A$4.51, Upside: 67%, NAV: A$6.60, NTM EV/EBITDA: 3.1x [4] - **WA1**: Buy rating, Niobium, Market cap: US$0.8 billion, Current price: A$15.53, Upside: 69%, NAV: A$30.04 [4] Valuation Metrics - **NAV Valuation**: Companies have varying NAVs, with NST having the highest at A$30.14 and PLS the lowest at A$2.68 [4] - **NTM EV/EBITDA Multiples**: Ranges from 3.1x (PNR) to 19.8x (LTR), indicating differing market expectations and valuations across companies [4] Commodity Price Forecasts - **Lithium Carbonate (China)**: Estimated at US$18,366 per ton, down 24% from spot [8] - **Lithium Hydroxide (China)**: Estimated at US$17,856 per ton, down 24% from spot [8] - **Spodumene 6%**: Estimated at US$2,015 per ton, down 45% from spot [8] - **Gold**: Estimated at US$4,778 per ounce, down 20% from spot [8] - **Copper**: Estimated at US$5.88 per pound, down 11% from spot [8] Additional Insights - The report highlights potential conflicts of interest due to Goldman Sachs' business relationships with covered companies [2] - Analysts emphasize the importance of considering this report as one of several factors in investment decisions [2] - The report includes a detailed analysis of market cap, price targets, and upside/downside potential for each company [4] This summary encapsulates the key points from the Australian Lithium & Gold Coverage report, providing insights into company ratings, valuations, and commodity forecasts.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved record high revenues of approximately $4.8 million for the quarter ending December, along with an additional $300,000 in interest income, totaling $5.1 million [5][14] - Operating costs increased to about $4.9 million for cash expenses, with total costs including non-cash items reaching approximately $6.4 million, indicating a close alignment between revenue generation and operational costs [6][8] - The company reported a cash balance of $48.7 million at the end of the quarter, marking one of the highest cash positions in years and zero debt on the balance sheet [7][8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The lithium-ion battery recycling business has seen substantial scaling, with operational efficiencies leading to a minor increase in costs compared to revenue growth [6][9] - The company is in the process of designing and constructing a second battery recycling facility in the Southeast U.S., in addition to the existing facility near Reno [10] - The lithium hydroxide production from claystone is progressing, with the Tonopah Flats Lithium Project moving through maturity steps and demonstrating a competitive production cost of just over $4,300 per ton [13][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is receiving increased material from both the automotive sector and the stationary grid battery energy storage systems, indicating a diversified material sourcing strategy [8][9] - The company has received its CERCLA certification, allowing it to process materials from various stationary facilities across the country, enhancing its operational capabilities [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on implementing a closed-loop infrastructure for battery recycling and critical mineral extraction, aiming to close the supply chain for lithium [3][4] - The strategic hiring of a new Chief Financial Officer is expected to support the ramp-up of business units and operational improvements [5] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about passing the break-even point for the recycling plant and continuing to grow margins as operations scale [7] - The company is actively working with federal agencies to expedite the permitting process for its lithium hydroxide facility, which has been designated as a priority project [12] Other Important Information - The company has successfully paid off all remaining debt and convertible notes, resulting in a strong balance sheet with no debt [8] - The company continues to receive government grants that support the operation and construction of its facilities [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss progress related to the ramp-up of the $30 million EPA cleanup agreement? - Management confirmed that the Moss Landing project in Northern California has been receiving material since the end of summer, contributing significantly to the factory's feedstock, and they are on pace to receive more material from this and other sources [16]

China lithium Global Markets Research EQUITY: ALTERNATIVE ENERGY 2026F outlook Supply-demand likely to be in tight balance in 2026F; limited impact on ESS demand yet Incremental ESS demand driving global lithium demand growth We expect global lithium demand to record a CAGR of 21% over 2026-27F, mainly fueled by a 35% ESS-related demand CAGR. We see incremental ESS battery demand leading to: (1) improved IRRs for independent projects in China given supportive policies; and (2) higher ESS demand in the US as ...

Core Viewpoint - Critical Metals has established long-term offtake agreements covering 100% of expected concentrate production from the Tanbreez project, highlighting significant partnerships and advancements in mineralization and purity targets [1][6][21] Group 1: Project Updates - The company reported a transformational year in 2025, with independent validation of its processing approach and the ability to produce concentrate grades of over 3% total rare earth element oxides [2][4] - Management identified commercially significant gallium mineralization, emphasizing its relevance in sectors such as semiconductors and aerospace [1][4] - A larger pilot plant is expected by 2026, with plans for 30 to 50 tonnes of pre-production concentrate for partner testing [4][16] Group 2: Financial and Capital Expenditure - Feasibility-level capital estimates for the Tanbreez project are projected to be between $800 million and $1 billion, with $10 million already committed and an additional $40 million to $50 million planned for the next 12 to 18 months [5][10][11] - The company has executed a term sheet for a 50/50 joint venture in Saudi Arabia, which will take 25% of production for the life of the mine without requiring equity issuance or incurring debt [6][9] Group 3: Joint Ventures and Partnerships - The Saudi facility is expected to produce separated rare earth oxides and magnet-grade materials, expanding processing capacity outside of China [7][9] - A Romanian joint venture aims to create an integrated mine-to-magnet supply chain for European magnet manufacturing, with no capital outlays or debt for Critical Metals [9] Group 4: Operational Developments - Construction has been approved for a multi-use storage housing and pilot plant facility in Greenland, with the pilot plant section scheduled for completion by 2026 [14] - The company has ordered a mobile geochemical analysis center to enhance assay turnaround times, which will be operated by local personnel [15] Group 5: Wolfsberg Lithium Project - The Wolfsberg project is positioned as Europe's first fully licensed lithium mine, targeting production between 2027 and 2028, with a resource of 12.88 million tons at 1% lithium oxide [18] - Legal proceedings are ongoing regarding environmental assessments, with the company confident in its legal position [19] - Drilling in Zone 2 has been successful, and discussions for a lithium hydroxide facility with Saudi Arabia's Obeikan Group are well advanced [20]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Lithium Market**: Lithium prices have increased significantly at the start of 2026, with lithium carbonate (battery-grade) prices rising approximately 14% year-to-date (YTD) to around $17,000 per ton excluding VAT, and lithium hydroxide prices increasing about 19% YTD to approximately $15,000 per ton excluding VAT. This bullish sentiment has positively impacted Albemarle Corporation (ALB) shares, which are up about 14% YTD despite a strong rally in the second half of 2025 [1][2][3]. Key Insights - **Supply Chain Dynamics**: Downstream cathode manufacturers are currently stockpiling, with inventory levels at approximately 36,500 tons, the lowest since March 2025. The expected restart of CATL's Jianxiawo mine has been delayed to around the Chinese New Year in February 2026, contributing to supply-side volatility. The overall supply-demand setup for lithium is expected to tighten favorably in 2026, which should benefit ALB through better pricing support and improved cycle dynamics [2][3]. - **Polyethylene (PE) Outlook**: ICIS forecasts a slight increase in feedstock costs for polyethylene, rising from approximately 15.5 cents per pound to about 18.1 cents per pound year-over-year. The U.S. and Canada will maintain a cost advantage, although the gap will narrow. Global PE capacity is expected to expand by about 8 million metric tons this year, which is roughly double the incremental demand [3][4]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Market**: New production capacity added in late 2024 has increased U.S. PVC production by around 6%. Domestic sales remained flat through 2025, prompting producers to manage supply-demand imbalances. Westlake Chemical (WLK) has rationalized about 15% of its global PVC capacity, which represents approximately 5% of U.S. PVC nameplate capacity. Export prices are under pressure due to increased competition, particularly from China [6][7]. - **Propylene and Polypropylene (PP) Trends**: Demand for propylene derivatives is expected to improve seasonally, but high inventory levels will take time to normalize. Contract prices for propylene are projected to remain stable in 2026 unless there is a significant supply disruption. The U.S. polypropylene market is anticipated to mirror the second half of 2025, with high inventories and modest demand fluctuations [7][8]. Additional Noteworthy Developments - **SABIC Divestitures**: SABIC announced the divestiture of its European petrochemical business to AEQUITA for an enterprise value of approximately $500 million. This acquisition is expected to synergize with AEQUITA's existing olefins and polyolefins business [11]. - **Joint Ventures in Biofuels**: Corteva (CTVA) and BP have formed a joint venture named Etlas, aimed at producing biofuel feedstock from crops, targeting an output of 1 million metric tons per annum by the mid-2030s, with initial supply expected to begin in 2027 [11]. - **BASF's Renewable Energy Initiative**: BASF has commissioned a 1 million metric ton ethylene cracker at its Verbund site in Zhanjiang, China, which will be the first to operate using 100% renewable energy for its main compressors [11]. - **Market Performance**: The S&P 500 has shown a year-to-date increase of 0.9%, while various chemical companies have reported mixed performances, with ALB up 10% and WLK up 7.3% [35]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and developments from the conference call, focusing on the lithium market, chemical industry dynamics, and notable corporate actions.

Industry Overview - The global lithium market is entering a new growth cycle after a challenging 2025, with prices having fallen approximately 90% from their 2022 peak due to slowed electric vehicle (EV) demand and increased supply [1] - The market is projected to expand from $13.9 billion in 2024 to $55.5 billion by 2032, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 19% [4] Demand Drivers - Electric vehicles will continue to drive lithium demand, complemented by strong growth in solar power installations that enhance the use of battery energy storage systems (BESS) [2] - Artificial intelligence is creating new lithium needs, as massive AI data centers are increasingly incorporating lithium-ion batteries to manage peak energy use [3] Key Players Rio Tinto - Rio Tinto aims to become a major lithium producer, having completed a $6.7 billion acquisition of Arcadium Lithium, which provides access to significant lithium resources [7] - The company plans to increase capacity at its Tier 1 lithium operations to over 200,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent per year by 2028 [7] - Rio Tinto is also expanding its lithium operations in South America, with a $2.5 billion investment in the Rincon project in Argentina, expected to produce up to 60,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate annually by 2028 [8] Lithium Americas - Lithium Americas is focusing on the U.S. market with its Thacker Pass project, which is expected to produce up to 40,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year, potentially making the U.S. the second-largest lithium producer [12] - The project has received strong government support, including a 5% stake acquisition by the U.S. Department of Energy and a $435 million loan from a larger $2.23 billion package [13] Albemarle - Albemarle is enhancing its global lithium conversion capacity through strategic projects, with production milestones supporting growth [15] - The company expects to achieve around $450 million in cost and productivity gains in 2025, exceeding initial targets [16] - Albemarle's scale and focus on cost management position it well to capture rising lithium demand globally [17] Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM) - SQM is expanding its lithium production capacity, targeting 240,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate by 2026 in Chile and ramping up lithium hydroxide capacity to 100,000 metric tons by the end of 2025 [19] - The company operates a lithium hydroxide refinery in China and is advancing the Mt. Holland project in Australia, further strengthening its global supply chain [20] - SQM anticipates long-term lithium demand to outpace supply, positioning itself to grow market share in the EV battery sector [21]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Lithium Market in China - **Key Drivers**: Strong demand for Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) both in China and globally is driving the lithium market dynamics Price Forecasts - **Lithium Price Increases**: - Average spot prices for lithium carbonate (including VAT) are raised by 35%/122%/100% to Rmb135k/200k/180k per ton for 2026/27/28, respectively, which is 56%/79%/52% above consensus estimates [1][7] - **Market Transition**: The lithium market is expected to shift from a surplus in 2025 to a deficit during 2026-28 [1][7] Demand and Supply Dynamics - **Demand Growth**: Global lithium demand forecast is increased by 10% up to 2030, driven by BESS demand [1][7] - **Supply Adjustments**: Global lithium supply forecast is raised by 5% up to 2028, reflecting higher price expectations [1][7] - **Short-term Balance**: Monthly lithium supply and demand in China are expected to be balanced in early 2026, with a shift to a monthly deficit from March 2026 due to demand growth outpacing supply [2][7] Company-Specific Insights Tianqi Lithium - **Earnings Forecast**: Net profits for 2026/27/28 are raised by 90%/325%/269% due to higher lithium price expectations [17][28] - **Price Target**: Price target increased from Rmb54.72 to Rmb84.22, maintaining a Buy rating [17][28] Ganfeng Lithium - **Earnings Forecast**: Net profits for Ganfeng-A are raised by 56%/328%/256% for 2026/27/28 [28][40] - **Price Target**: Price target increased from Rmb49.62 to Rmb72.41, maintaining a Buy rating [28][40] - **Ganfeng-H**: Price target raised from HK$32.75 to HK$63.26, upgraded from Neutral to Buy [40][47] Qinghai Salt Lake Industry (QSLI) - **Earnings Forecast**: Net profits for 2026/27/28 are raised by 32%/55%/41% [51] - **Price Target**: Price target increased from Rmb23.40 to Rmb30.11, maintaining a Buy rating [51] Financial Metrics - **Earnings Estimates**: Overall earnings estimates for China's lithium companies are raised by 32-328% for 2026-28, now 39-474% above consensus [3][7] - **EPS Changes**: Significant increases in EPS for Tianqi, Ganfeng-A, Ganfeng-H, and QSLI due to higher price forecasts [3][28][51] Risks and Considerations - **Market Risks**: Potential conflicts of interest noted due to UBS's business relationships with covered companies [5] - **Price Sensitivity**: Current share prices are skewed to the upside, indicating potential for further growth based on market dynamics [24][37][47] Conclusion - The lithium market in China is poised for significant growth driven by BESS demand, with substantial upward revisions in price targets and earnings forecasts for key players in the industry. The transition from surplus to deficit in the lithium market is a critical factor influencing these projections.

Core Insights - Rock Tech Lithium Inc. has announced the approval and launch of the CAD $500 million Critical Minerals Processing Fund (CMPF) by the Province of Ontario, aimed at enhancing the province's critical minerals processing capacity and strengthening its position in the global battery materials supply chain [1][3] Group 1: Company Initiatives - Rock Tech's proposed Lithium Conversion Facility in Red Rock, Ontario aligns with the CMPF's goal to support midstream critical minerals processing projects, aiming to deliver domestic lithium conversion capacity for battery-grade products [2][4] - The company has invested over 350,000 engineering hours and CAD 65 million into the design of its lithium conversion facilities, emphasizing its commitment to developing a competitive lithium supply chain in Ontario [5] Group 2: Industry Impact - The CMPF is seen as a significant step towards scaling up processing capacity necessary for the energy transition, which will catalyze investment, create jobs, and provide long-term economic benefits across Ontario [3] - Rock Tech's facilities are positioned to contribute to battery-grade material sovereignty and support climate targets, working in partnership with industry, policymakers, and community groups [10]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China Battery Materials Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the lithium battery materials industry, particularly in China, with a specific emphasis on lithium carbonate production and pricing trends. Core Insights - **Lithium Production Trends**: - Brine-based lithium carbonate output is expected to decline due to seasonal factors, with a projected decrease of 265 tons in weekly output. - ZE Consulting forecasts a 4% month-over-month increase in lithium production, reaching a record high of 94,600 tons in December 2025, attributed to the resumption of operations at JXW mine [1][2]. - **Pricing Dynamics**: - The average selling price (ASP) for lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) and lithium hydroxide (LiOH) has increased week-over-week, with Li2CO3 priced at Rmb93.3k/ton and LiOH at Rmb81.7k/ton as of November 27, 2025, compared to Rmb91.3k/ton and Rmb80.6k/ton the previous week [2]. - **Production Statistics**: - China's Li2CO3 production decreased by 1% week-over-week to 21,865 tons. The output from brine sources fell by 11%, while lepidolite and spodumene saw slight increases of 2% and 0%, respectively [2]. - **Inventory Levels**: - Total inventory of Li2CO3 was reported at 115,968 tons, reflecting a 2% decrease week-over-week. Notably, inventories for downstream players, including cathode makers and battery manufacturers, showed varied trends with a 6% decrease for cathode makers and a 4% increase for battery makers [2]. Company Focus - **CATL Valuation**: - CATL's stock is valued at HK$621/share based on a target EV/EBITDA multiple of 17.3x for 2025, which is 0.15 standard deviations above its historical average. This valuation implies a P/E ratio of 36.5x for 2025 and 27.7x for 2026 [20][22]. - **Risks to CATL**: - The stock is rated as high risk due to its short trading history. Potential downside risks include lower-than-expected electric vehicle (EV) demand, increased competition in the EV battery market, and rising raw material costs [21][22]. Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: - The overall sentiment in the lithium market appears cautiously optimistic, with expectations of increased production and stable pricing, although risks remain due to market competition and cost pressures [1][21]. - **Analyst Recommendations**: - Analysts recommend monitoring the developments at JXW mine closely, as its output resumption is expected to significantly influence overall lithium supply dynamics in the coming months [1]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the lithium battery materials industry, focusing on production trends, pricing, inventory levels, and specific insights related to CATL.

Group 1 - The American Battery Technology Company held its Fiscal Fourth Year Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Call, welcoming participants and indicating that a recording of the call will be available on their website [1] - The presentation includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, which may lead to actual results differing from anticipated outcomes [2] - The CEO and CTO, Ryan Melsert, will discuss the company's two lines of business: lithium-ion battery recycling and the conversion of claystone to lithium hydroxide [3]