While most investors are chasing artificial intelligence (AI) chipmakers, the real backbone of the AI revolution may be chip designer Arm Holdings (ARM). Its chip designs power everything from smartphones to hyperscale data centers, positioning it as a key player of the next decade of AI. After delivering its strongest quarter ever, Arm is set to report its third quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on Feb. 4 after the market closes. Is this a good opportunity to grab this AI chip stock now? More News from Barc ...

Core Insights - AppLovin Corporation (APP) and Arm Holdings plc (ARM) are both positioned as leaders in the rapidly growing artificial intelligence sector, despite operating in different segments of the technology ecosystem [1][2] AppLovin Corporation (APP) - AppLovin is enhancing its advertising performance through advanced machine learning systems, focusing on app monetization and marketing automation [2] - The company is prioritizing improvements in advertiser onboarding, AI-based support tools, generative AI for ad creation, and marketing for its Axon Ads platform [3] - AppLovin is transitioning from a gaming-centric business to a more sophisticated digital advertising platform, utilizing machine learning to predict user behavior and optimize ad placements [4] - The company reported Q3 revenues of $1.41 billion, a 68% increase year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA rising 79% to $1.16 billion, reflecting an 82% margin [6] - Free cash flow surged 92% to $1.05 billion, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [6] - AppLovin's MAX platform is experiencing growth due to rising advertiser demand and effective campaigns, solidifying its position in app-based advertising [7] - The company is projected to achieve 18% revenue growth and a 106% increase in earnings this year, showcasing significant operational leverage [14] Arm Holdings plc (ARM) - Arm Holdings is expanding its ecosystem and forming partnerships, such as with Meta, to enhance AI efficiency across various computing platforms [8] - The company is a key technology partner for major hyperscalers, with its designs contributing to improved energy efficiency and cost performance in chips [10] - Arm's Compute Subsystem (CSS) designs are streamlining chip development, reducing time-to-market and technical risks for manufacturers [11] - The Lumex CSS platform is set to power flagship devices from OPPO and vivo, enhancing mobile AI capabilities [12] - Arm reported Q2 revenues of $1.14 billion, a 34% year-over-year increase, with operating income rising 43% to achieve a 41.1% margin [13] - The company is projected to deliver 21.5% revenue growth but only a 5.5% increase in EPS, indicating a more gradual earnings expansion [17] Valuation Perspective - AppLovin trades at a forward P/E of 38.55x, slightly below its median, while Arm trades at 65.71x, reflecting high expectations for long-term AI and IoT opportunities [21] - AppLovin's stronger earnings growth and operational efficiency make its valuation more compelling compared to Arm [21] - Investors seeking near-term upside may find AppLovin to be a more attractive option, while Arm remains a strong long-term play in AI chip adoption [22]

Core Insights - A new wave of AI-driven demand is significantly reshaping the semiconductor industry, positioning Arm Holdings as a potential trillion-dollar company in the next decade [1] Financial Performance - Arm Holdings reported a record Q2 for fiscal 2026, with revenue increasing by 34% year-on-year to $1.14 billion, marking the third consecutive billion-dollar quarter [3] - Royalty sales reached an all-time high of $620 million, up 21%, driven by strong performance across smartphones, data centers, automobiles, and IoT [3] - Licensing annualized contract value (ACV) rose by 28%, continuing the momentum from Q1 [3] - Adjusted EPS increased by 30% to $0.39 per share [4] Market Demand and Trends - The demand for data center compute is a key catalyst for growth, with the Neoverse data center platform surpassing 1 billion CPUs deployed [4] - Major tech companies like Nvidia, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are building custom silicon on Arm's architecture, contributing to royalty expansion [4] - Licensing revenue surged by 56% to $515 million, reflecting strong interest in next-generation AI architectures [4] Strategic Alliances and Innovations - Arm announced a strategic alliance with Meta to enhance AI efficiency across various computing levels, leveraging Arm's energy-efficient designs [5] - The relationship with Samsung was expanded, utilizing Arm's compute subsystem in Exynos chipsets to boost AI performance by up to 40% [5] - The launch of Lumex CSS, Arm's advanced mobile compute platform, enables on-device AI capabilities, with partners like OPPO and Vivo set to release flagship products [5]

Core Insights - Investors are cautious despite Arm Holdings plc's record-breaking Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings, with the stock declining about 7% post-results due to concerns over valuation and spending [1][7][15] Financial Performance - Arm Holdings reported Q2 revenues of $1.14 billion, a 34% year-over-year increase, surpassing estimates by 6.5%, marking the third consecutive billion-dollar quarter [2][7] - Royalty revenues reached a record $620 million, up 21% year-over-year, driven by increased adoption of Arm's architecture, particularly in data centers [3] - Licensing revenues climbed 56% to $515 million, reflecting the growing adoption of Arm's designs for next-generation AI chips [4] - Non-GAAP operating income was $467 million, a 43% increase year-over-year, with an operating margin of 41.1%, up from 38.6% [12] Strategic Positioning - Arm's compute platforms are integral to major tech companies, with significant performance and energy efficiency gains demonstrated by platforms like Google's Axion [9] - The company has formed a strategic partnership with Meta Platforms to enhance AI efficiency across various computing environments [8] - The launch of Lumex CSS, Arm's advanced mobile compute platform, is expected to enhance mobile AI capabilities [11] Future Outlook - For Q3 fiscal 2026, Arm expects revenues between $1.175 billion and $1.275 billion, indicating approximately 25% year-over-year growth [14] - Licensing is projected to rise by 25% to 30%, while royalties are expected to increase just over 20% [14] Valuation Concerns - Arm's forward price-to-sales ratio stands at 28.52, significantly higher than the industry average of 7.78, indicating a high-expectation phase [16] - The company's heavy reinvestment cycle and stretched valuation may limit short-term returns, leading to a cautious investment stance [17]

Core Viewpoint - Arm Holdings has demonstrated strong earnings performance in Q2 of fiscal 2026, with revenue and earnings surpassing consensus estimates [1] Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 34% year over year to $1.14 billion, with royalty revenue rising 21% to $620 million and licensing revenue surging 56% to $515 million [2] - Adjusted net income grew by 32% year over year to $417 million [2] Market Dynamics - The demand for Arm's products is significantly driven by artificial intelligence (AI), although the stock price remains volatile [3] - Despite a strong earnings report, the stock experienced a nearly 9% decline in pre-market trading due to weaker fiscal guidance and rising tariff concerns [3][4] Demand Trends - Hyperscalers and large enterprises are increasing their computing capacity, which benefits Arm due to its focus on energy-efficient chip architectures [5] - Arm's Neoverse computing platform is foundational for custom data center CPUs, with over 1 billion CPUs deployed and Neoverse royalties increasing over 100% year over year [7] Licensing and Royalties - Smartphone royalties grew faster than the overall market, driven by demand for Armv9 and Compute Subsystem (CSS) architectures [8] - Licensing activity showed strong performance, with annualized contract value increasing by 28% year over year [9] Research and Development - Arm is heavily investing in R&D for next-generation architectures and computing subsystems, leading to a 31% year-over-year increase in adjusted operating expenses to $648 million [10] - The company has not provided a clear timeline for new products, which complicates financial modeling and valuation [12] Growth Catalysts - Arm's CPUs are increasingly used by hyperscalers and AI model developers, enhancing their price-performance capabilities [13] - There is growing demand for Arm's CPUs and Lumex CSS platform as AI workloads transition from cloud to local devices [14] - Arm's involvement in the Stargate initiative, aimed at investing $500 billion in data center capacity, could drive long-term revenue [15] Valuation - Shares are trading at a high valuation of over 65 times forward earnings, reflecting confidence in royalty revenue from Arm-based chips [16] - The elevated valuation presents a lower margin for error, as any slowdown in AI infrastructure spending could negatively impact share price [16] Investment Strategy - Given the strong fundamentals and associated risks, a dollar-cost averaging strategy is recommended for investors to manage volatility while capitalizing on potential upside [17]

Core Insights - Arm reported Q2 FY26 revenue of $1.14 billion, a year-over-year increase of 34% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 8% [4] - The company achieved a GAAP gross margin of 97.4%, up 1.2 percentage points year-over-year, maintaining its leading position globally [4] - Non-GAAP operating profit margin rebounded to 41% after a decrease in expense ratios, despite high R&D costs [3] Financial Performance - GAAP operating profit was $160 million, a 155% increase year-over-year, with a GAAP operating margin of 14%, up 6 percentage points [4] - Non-GAAP net profit reached $420 million, a 32% year-over-year increase, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 37%, down 1 percentage point [4] - GAAP net profit was $240 million, a 122% increase year-over-year, with a GAAP net profit margin of 21%, up 8 percentage points [4] Revenue Breakdown - License & Other revenue was $520 million, a 56% year-over-year increase, with 48 Arm Total Access contracts signed [7] - Royalty revenue reached $620 million, a 21% year-over-year increase, driven by growth in data centers, mobile, automotive, and IoT markets [10] - The company’s annual contract value (ACV) was $1.6 billion, a 28% year-over-year increase, while remaining performance obligations (RPO) were $2.25 billion, down 6% year-over-year [7] Market Position and Future Outlook - Arm's Neoverse CPU platform has been deployed in over 1 billion CPUs, with expectations that nearly 50% of new server CPU chips will be Arm architecture by 2025 [13] - The company anticipates Q3 revenue of $1.225 billion, a 25% year-over-year increase, and expects Royalty revenue to grow slightly above 20% year-over-year [13] - Management expressed confidence in the growth of the License business pipeline for the remainder of the year, particularly in China [13] Strategic Developments - Arm announced a strategic partnership with Meta to enhance AI efficiency across various computing layers [13] - The acquisition of DreamBig Semiconductor focuses on Ethernet and RDMA controller IP, which are important for scale-up and scale-out applications [13] - The management's reluctance to provide full-year guidance has raised concerns in the market, despite positive indicators from recent performance [14]

Core Insights - ARM's efficiency in computing platforms is approximately 50% higher than competing solutions, leading to significant adoption by major companies like NVIDIA, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Tesla [1][2] - The unprecedented demand for computing power is primarily based on ARM technology, contributing to over 100% year-on-year growth in the Neoverse business segment [1][2] - The Chinese market has shown strong performance with historical high demand, driven mainly by license revenue, including a large licensing deal [1][7] Financial Performance - In Q2, SoftBank-related revenue increased from $126 million to $178 million, a rise of $52 million, which serves as a future reference benchmark [5] - The revenue from SoftBank includes IP licensing and design services, with design services having a lower profit margin [5] Strategic Initiatives - ARM's acquisition of DreamBig Semiconductor is aimed at enhancing its Ethernet and DMA controller capabilities, which will expand its product offerings [3] - Collaboration with SoftBank on the Stargate project is expected to provide significant business opportunities in data center construction [3] Market Trends - The infrastructure business is growing at twice the average rate of other categories, with expectations of a 15% to 20% revenue share in ARM's royalty income [6] - The shift in data center computing from training to inference is anticipated, with strong demand for ARM's technologies in edge computing [7] Future Outlook - ARM maintains confidence in its future prospects based on current capital expenditures and the ongoing strong AI cycle [1][7] - The company plans to provide clearer guidance for Q4 based on its licensing reserves and the timing of large licensing deals [1][7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported revenue of $1.14 billion for Q2, representing a 34% year-on-year increase, marking the third consecutive billion-dollar quarter [4][11] - Royalty revenue reached a record $620 million, up 21% year-on-year, driven by growth across all major markets [4][11] - Licensing revenue increased by 56% to $515 million, reflecting strong demand for next-generation architectures [4][13] - Non-GAAP operating income was $467 million, up 43% year-on-year, resulting in a non-GAAP operating margin of 41.1% [15] - Non-GAAP EPS was $0.39, exceeding the midpoint of guidance by 6 cents [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Royalty revenue from smartphones grew significantly faster than the market, driven by higher royalty rates per chip [12] - Data center royalties doubled year-on-year due to the deployment of Arm-based chips by hyperscaler companies [12] - The company signed three new compute subsystem (CSS) licenses, bringing the total to 19 across 11 companies, indicating strong demand for CSS [7][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted unprecedented compute demand, particularly in data centers, where Neoverse royalties more than doubled year-on-year [4][21] - The automotive sector saw advancements with Arm's technologies, including Tesla's next-generation AI chip delivering up to 40x faster AI performance [9] - The software developer ecosystem has grown to over 22 million, representing over 80% of the world's developer base, which is a significant growth engine for the company [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced a strategic partnership with Meta to enhance AI efficiency across various compute layers [6] - There is a focus on expanding into additional compute subsystems, chiplets, or complex SOCs to capture growing AI opportunities [10] - The company is committed to investing aggressively in R&D to support customer demand and innovation in next-generation architectures [10][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted that power has become a bottleneck in data centers, emphasizing the efficiency of Arm's compute platform [20] - The demand for compute is expected to grow, particularly as AI workloads transition from cloud to edge devices [61] - The company remains optimistic about long-term growth, driven by the increasing demand for efficient compute solutions [16][71] Other Important Information - The company is exploring the acquisition of DreamBig Semiconductor to enhance its offerings in high-speed communications technology [24] - The relationship with SoftBank and its partners is seen as a significant opportunity for technology integration in data center solutions [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: AI opportunity and data center deals - Management expressed confidence in Arm's strategic positioning in the AI market, noting that power efficiency is a key advantage [20][21] Question: Acquisition of DreamBig Semiconductor - The acquisition is aimed at enhancing Arm's capabilities in Ethernet and RDMA controllers, crucial for data center networking [24] Question: Related party revenue and SoftBank relationship - Management indicated a significant increase in related party revenue, with a strong partnership with SoftBank providing opportunities for technology integration [26][36] Question: Operating expenses and future product announcements - Management stated that details on new products will be shared once certain milestones are achieved, emphasizing careful management of operating expenses [30][32] Question: SoftBank contribution and licensing pipeline - Management noted a $52 million increase in SoftBank-related revenue, with confidence in the licensing pipeline for the remainder of the year [36][66] Question: Revenue opportunity from Stargate and Lumex CSS - Management highlighted strong demand for compute and early royalty revenues from Lumex CSS, indicating faster adoption than expected [44][46] Question: Growth in data center royalty revenues - Management confirmed that the mix of royalty revenues from cloud and networking is expected to increase, potentially reaching 15-20% [52][53] Question: Chip demand and inference world implications - Management anticipates a shift from cloud-based training to edge-based inference, which will drive demand for Arm's solutions [60][61] Question: Performance in China - Management reported strong demand in China, with licensing being a significant driver of revenue growth in the region [65][66]