盈利阶段性承压，产品周期与技术投入支撑中长期发展 Near-Term Earnings Under Pressure; Product Cycle and Technology Investment Support Long-Term Growth [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持中性 Maintain NEUTRAL 评级 中性 NEUTRAL 现价 HK$69.90 目标价 HK$83.29 HTI ESG 4.5-1.9-3.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$126.36bn / US$16.14bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$101.64mn 发行股票数目 1,808mn 自由流通股 (%) 66% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$124.50-HK$61.85 注：现价 HK$69.90 为 2026 年 03 月 16 日收盘价 资料来源： Factset 1mth 3mth 12mth 绝对值 -3.3% 3.5% - ...

Summary of Li Auto's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Li Auto - **Industry**: Electric Vehicles (EVs) Key Points and Arguments Market Position and Sales Performance - Li Auto leads the market for passenger vehicles priced above 200,000 RMB, with a market share of 12.1% in the Chinese new energy vehicle sector as of Q3 2025, ranking first among Chinese automotive brands [2][3][4] - Cumulative deliveries exceeded 1.46 million units by the end of October 2025, with new electric SUV models I8 and I6 achieving over 100,000 total orders [2][3] Product Development and Technology - The company focuses on in-house development of core technologies, including electric drive, battery, and electronic control systems [3][4] - Li Auto has developed its own silicon carbide power chips and established a dedicated electric motor factory, aiming for mass production of its proprietary 5C battery in the coming year [2][3] - The VOLS C4G large model has been fully pushed to the AD Max model, with plans to enhance perception and response accuracy through OTA updates [2][4] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was 27.4 billion RMB, with a gross margin of approximately 20% after excluding a one-time cost of 1.1 billion RMB related to the Mega recall [2][5] - The company maintains a cash reserve of nearly 100 billion RMB, providing a solid foundation for future growth [4] Research and Development - R&D investment is expected to grow in single digits, focusing on smart technology and software, while reducing the number of vehicle models developed to improve efficiency [7] - The M100 chip has completed testing and will be integrated into the L series models in 2026, with plans for broader deployment across the i series [13] Supply Chain and Production Challenges - Current delivery ramp-up for the I8 and I6 models is slower than expected due to supply chain coordination issues, particularly with CATL [8] - The company is working to resolve these bottlenecks by enhancing collaboration with suppliers and introducing a second supplier [8] Strategic Insights - The company acknowledges past strategic misjudgments, particularly in market capacity predictions and sales targets, emphasizing the need for better consumer insights and macroeconomic understanding [11] - Li Auto views the capital market as a vital source of long-term insights, not just a financing tool [10] Future Outlook - The L series is set for significant iteration next year, with a goal to shorten product life cycles to approximately two years [14] - The company plans to establish a comprehensive battery supply matrix to mitigate potential supply issues [16] AI and Smart Driving Initiatives - Li Auto is committed to long-term investments in AI, smart driving, and autonomous technologies, aiming to compete in both domestic and global markets [18] Additional Important Points - The company has optimized its sales service structure, operating around 550 retail centers across over 150 cities and establishing more than 3,500 supercharging stations [2][4] - The introduction of a simplified OKR assessment system aims to enhance efficiency and address internal challenges [9]

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint discusses the recent "28-point" ceasefire agreement proposed by Trump, which requires Ukraine to abandon territorial claims over Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk, crossing Ukraine's "strategic red line" [1][5][6] - The existing political system in Ukraine makes it difficult for many terms of the agreement to be implemented, and the neglect of Europe's strategic position creates uncertainty in future geopolitical situations [5][6] - The report suggests that the path to peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains long and complicated, with limited room for further declines in oil prices driven by news in the short term [5][6] Fixed Income Strategy - The credit bond market is expected to see both opportunities and risks in supply and demand, with three main strategies focusing on liquidity, the pace of economic recovery, and regulatory policy changes [2][7] - The report recommends a defensive strategy centered on short- to medium-term credit bonds, while selectively engaging in long-term bonds for potential trading opportunities [2][7] - The supply side of the city investment bond sector is expected to maintain a "zero tolerance" regulatory stance, with financing remaining tight but gradually improving as platforms transition to industrial entities [7][9] Company Analysis: Li Auto-W (02015.HK) - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 27.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 36.2%, and a net profit loss of 620 million yuan, indicating short-term pressure on performance [12][14] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 16.3%, down 5.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased manufacturing costs from a recall [12][14] - The company is restructuring its management model to focus on user value and efficiency, aiming to build a complete AI system for its vehicles, with expectations for significant performance improvements in future chip designs [12][14]