全球政治右翼化与宽财政、宽货币趋势意味着地缘摩擦更大的不确定性、全球政府债务更大的不可持续性，经济从软着陆走向温和过热的概率加大。 国庆假期，海外市场由美国政府停摆和日本高市早苗当选自民党总裁两大事件主导。联邦政府停摆期间，避险情绪升温，非农就业等重要经济数据暂停发 布，市场交易"没消息就是没消息"，对美联储"盲降利率"的预期升温，叠加高市早苗胜选带来的日本"宽财政+宽货币"预期，共同带动黄金和比特币续创历 史新高。 向前看，全球政治右翼化与宽财政、宽货币趋势意味着地缘摩擦更大的不确定性、全球政府债务更大的不可持续性，经济从软着陆走向温和过热的概率加 大。 海外经济 美国ADP就业再度负增长，ISM制造业和服务业指数表现分化。因美国联邦政府自10月1日起停摆，一些政府机构发布的美国经济数据暂停发布，迄今已受 到影响的数据包括9月美国非农就业、首申失业金、8月工厂订单、建筑开支等数据，而美联储、私营部门发布的数据不受影响。 国庆假期前后，美国公布的职位空缺、ADP就业数据以及PMI、消费者信心等景气数据喜忧参半。 景气指数方面，9月美国ISM制造业和服务业PMI分化：ISM制造业PMI改善至49.1，预期49， ...

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing short-term fluctuations as the National Day holiday approaches, with a cautious sentiment among investors leading to profit-taking and adjustments in positions [1][2][16] - The technology sector has shown signs of a temporary pullback, while financial and consumer sectors demonstrate resilience, indicating a short-term style switch in the market [1][2][16] Short-term Strategy - For short-term investors, it is advisable to take profits on stocks that have seen significant gains recently to mitigate holding risks [2][16] - Long-term investors should remain patient with quality companies that have solid fundamentals and clear industry prospects, particularly in the technology sector [2][16] Sector Analysis Technology Sector - The technology sector, particularly AI, semiconductors, and robotics, is highlighted as a long-term investment opportunity, especially during the current market correction [2][16] - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its upward trajectory, supported by national policies and increasing global demand for AI and high-performance computing [10] New Energy Sector - The new energy sector remains a focus for investors, with leading companies expected to benefit from both valuation recovery and performance growth [3][9][17] - The demand for lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and wind energy is projected to persist as global efforts to achieve carbon neutrality continue [9][17] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector is showing signs of recovery, with new policies in major cities aimed at boosting market demand and improving the financial health of real estate companies [11] - Investors are encouraged to look for opportunities in quality companies with strong land reserves and stable growth prospects [11] Precious Metals - The precious metals sector has seen price increases driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and rising geopolitical tensions, making gold an attractive investment [12][13] Gaming Sector - The gaming sector has experienced volatility, with recent advancements in AI technology providing growth opportunities in content production and interactive entertainment [14] Banking Sector - The banking sector is stabilizing, with high dividend yield stocks continuing to attract investor interest, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [15]

Group 1: Gold Market - Geopolitical tensions are rising again, with conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, which may support gold prices in the short term [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, combined with escalating geopolitical friction, will provide short-term support for gold prices [2] - The recent price action shows a strong upward trend, with potential to test historical highs around $3500 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - OPEC+ has completed its production increase plan ahead of schedule, with Saudi Arabia expected to continue increasing oil output [2] - The U.S. oil production is stable at 13.41 million barrels per day, projected to rise by 200,000 barrels per day in 2024 [2] - Despite geopolitical tensions providing short-term support, the oil market is expected to return to a supply-demand balance, leading to a downward adjustment in oil prices [2] Group 3: Currency Market - The U.S. core PCE price index for July recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, the highest since February 2025, aligning with market expectations [3] - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in September is estimated at 87.4%, with a significant chance of further cuts in October [3] - The dollar index is currently testing the 97 level, with expectations of downward movement due to anticipated rate cuts [3] Group 4: Stock Market - The Nikkei 225 index has shown signs of a pullback, with a potential test of the 62-day moving average [4] - The copper market is experiencing a period of low-level adjustment after a significant drop in late July, with potential for a rebound [4]

Group 1: Gold Market - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending August 2 reached 226,000, slightly above market expectations and previous values, indicating a weak employment market [1] - President Trump has nominated Stephen Moore as a temporary Federal Reserve governor, with a dovish stance likely to influence future monetary policy [1] - Analysts suggest a high probability of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts due to recent weak economic data [1] - Technical indicators show a sideways trend for gold, with resistance at $3424 and support at $3360 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Geopolitical tensions are expected to ease, with potential U.S.-Russia talks scheduled, which may reduce supply disruption risks and could lead to the lifting of secondary sanctions on Russia [2] - Despite the easing tensions, U.S. oil demand remains high, supported by a significant drop in EIA crude oil inventory data [2] - Saudi Arabia's unexpected increase in official crude oil prices indicates a positive outlook for future oil demand, limiting potential price declines [2] - Technical analysis shows a bearish trend for oil prices, with resistance at $65 and support at $62.51 [2] Group 3: U.S. Dollar Index - The nomination of Stephen Moore and the potential appointment of a dovish Federal Reserve chair are likely to put pressure on the U.S. dollar [3] - Market expectations indicate a 92.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook for the dollar, with risks of further declines towards the 97.92 level [3] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown strong performance recently, with support found at the 62-day moving average [5] - The index is in an upward trend, with potential for further gains if it breaks above previous highs [5] Group 5: Copper Market - Copper prices have been relatively stagnant following a significant drop at the end of July, entering a phase of technical correction [6] - The market remains under bearish pressure, with prices fluctuating between $4.28 and $4.44 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are intensifying the competition between bullish and bearish positions in the gold market, leading to an influx of safe-haven investments into gold [1] Group 1 - Geopolitical friction is driving investors to seek refuge in gold, indicating a potential increase in demand for the precious metal [1] - The market is experiencing a significant battle between long and short positions, reflecting heightened volatility and uncertainty [1] - The question remains whether the recent pullback in gold prices will attract more buyers, suggesting a potential rebound in the market [1]

Gold Market - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is 94.4%, and in July, it is 74.9%, indicating a low likelihood of short-term rate cuts, which may pressure gold prices [2] - The EU plans to accelerate trade negotiations with the US under pressure, while Japan is set to hold the fourth round of tariff talks with the US on the 30th, suggesting a cooling of trade tensions [2] - Analysts warn of further risks of gold price declines due to reduced safe-haven demand and the recent bearish market trend, with key resistance at $3328 and support at $3285 [2] Oil Market - OPEC+ has not yet discussed increasing oil production by 410,000 barrels per day ahead of their upcoming meetings, which may impact oil prices negatively [3] - Geopolitical uncertainties remain, with Germany lifting restrictions on military aid to Ukraine and Iran preparing for potential actions against Israel, which may limit the downside for oil prices [3] Copper Market - Recent trading shows a decline from high levels, with a warning of further potential drops; support may be found at the 62-day moving average [7] Nikkei 225 Index - The index has shown strong upward movement, closing positively, and has regained its position above the 20-day moving average, indicating potential for further gains [8]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential resumption of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, raising questions about whether geopolitical tensions can be alleviated [1] - It highlights the current state of gold prices, which are testing the support level of 3205, and speculates on the possibility of a short-term reversal [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising geopolitical tensions and the renewed interest in gold as a safe-haven asset, questioning whether bullish investors can break through key resistance levels [1] Group 1 - Geopolitical friction is escalating, leading to increased safe-haven sentiment towards gold [1] - There is a focus on whether bullish investors can overcome significant resistance levels in the gold market [1]