Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint discusses the recent "28-point" ceasefire agreement proposed by Trump, which requires Ukraine to abandon territorial claims over Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk, crossing Ukraine's "strategic red line" [1][5][6] - The existing political system in Ukraine makes it difficult for many terms of the agreement to be implemented, and the neglect of Europe's strategic position creates uncertainty in future geopolitical situations [5][6] - The report suggests that the path to peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains long and complicated, with limited room for further declines in oil prices driven by news in the short term [5][6] Fixed Income Strategy - The credit bond market is expected to see both opportunities and risks in supply and demand, with three main strategies focusing on liquidity, the pace of economic recovery, and regulatory policy changes [2][7] - The report recommends a defensive strategy centered on short- to medium-term credit bonds, while selectively engaging in long-term bonds for potential trading opportunities [2][7] - The supply side of the city investment bond sector is expected to maintain a "zero tolerance" regulatory stance, with financing remaining tight but gradually improving as platforms transition to industrial entities [7][9] Company Analysis: Li Auto-W (02015.HK) - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 27.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 36.2%, and a net profit loss of 620 million yuan, indicating short-term pressure on performance [12][14] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 16.3%, down 5.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased manufacturing costs from a recall [12][14] - The company is restructuring its management model to focus on user value and efficiency, aiming to build a complete AI system for its vehicles, with expectations for significant performance improvements in future chip designs [12][14]

Group 1: Gold Market - Recent improvements in trade prospects for the world's two largest economies have led to a decrease in safe-haven sentiment, causing gold prices to retreat [1] - The U.S. Senate's 13th rejection of a temporary funding bill and ongoing government shutdown contribute to uncertainty, while geopolitical tensions in Israel and Gaza may support gold prices [1] - Analyst Chen Yu suggests optimism for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which could lead to a rise in gold prices [1] Group 2: Oil Market - The latest API data shows a reduction of 4.02 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories, exceeding the previous decrease of 2.981 million barrels, which is bullish for oil prices [2] - OPEC's strategy to regain market share may lead to increased production in December, coinciding with a seasonal decline in demand, raising concerns about oversupply [2] - Investors should monitor the impact of sanctions on Russian oil production, as continued sanctions could support oil prices, while a lack of sanctions may lead to weaker prices [2] Group 3: U.S. Economic Indicators - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is expected to negatively impact the job market, increasing the likelihood of continued rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 99.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and a 91.6% probability of a total cut of 50 basis points by December [3] - The dollar index remains strong, with technical indicators suggesting a potential for stability above the 62-day moving average [3] Group 4: Market Overview - The U.S. government shutdown continues as the Senate rejects a temporary funding bill for the 13th time [5] - The ADP report indicates an average addition of 14,250 jobs per week over the four weeks ending October 11 [5] - A key minerals and rare earth supply agreement was signed between Trump and Takamatsu [5] Group 5: Upcoming Events - Key data to be released includes the EIA crude oil inventory report and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [6] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference following the rate decision [6]

Market Overview - The market experienced a decline with shrinking trading volume, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors as they await clarity on trade policies [2][12][15] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.95%, closing at 3839.76 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index saw declines of 3.04% and 3.36% respectively [6][7] - The decline was attributed to several factors, including a drop in trading volume below 2 trillion yuan for two consecutive days, concerns over the performance of the technology sector amidst the earnings season, and uncertainties related to tariff negotiations [2][12][15] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as banking and public utilities showed strength, while technology stocks faced significant selling pressure [3][8] - The precious metals sector saw a notable increase due to rising international gold prices, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [9][10] - Coal stocks also performed well, supported by anticipated improvements in economic conditions and potential policy measures in the fourth quarter [10] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a dual approach, focusing on defensive assets in the short term while positioning for growth in sectors like AI, semiconductors, and robotics in the medium term [3][13] - Emphasis is placed on selecting stocks with solid earnings or future earnings potential, while avoiding technology stocks that have risen significantly without performance support [3][13] - There is a recommendation to monitor cyclical sectors and consumer demand for potential rebounds, particularly in undervalued core assets or blue-chip stocks [3][13]

Core Viewpoint - The global political rightward shift, along with trends of expansive fiscal and monetary policies, indicates increased uncertainty from geopolitical friction and greater unsustainability of global government debt, raising the probability of the economy moving from a soft landing to moderate overheating [1] Market Strategy - Short-term risk appetite for US stocks is expected to weaken due to the ongoing government shutdown, while in the medium term, the combination of right-wing policies and dual expansionary fiscal and monetary measures is likely to lead to geopolitical risks, economic overheating, and weakened fiat currency credit, with expected asset performance ranking as gold > copper > stocks [1] Major Events Impacting Markets - The US government shutdown and the election of Kishi Nobuo as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan are the two main events driving market sentiment [2] - The US government shutdown, which began on October 1, is expected to last longer than market expectations, leading to increased risk aversion and a rise in gold and Bitcoin prices, with both assets reaching historical highs [2][3] Economic Data - The US ADP employment data showed a negative growth of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below the expected increase of 51,000, indicating weakness in the labor market [5] - The ISM manufacturing PMI improved to 49.1, while the services PMI fell to 50, reflecting mixed signals in the US economy [5] Political Developments in the US - The US federal government entered a shutdown due to a failure to pass a temporary spending bill, primarily over disagreements on healthcare spending, with potential economic impacts being limited based on historical precedents [6][7] - The shutdown is expected to delay the release of key economic data, including non-farm payrolls and CPI, which are crucial for Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions [7] Political Developments in Japan - Kishi Nobuo's election as the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party is expected to lead to a continuation of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, which may delay the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike process [8][9] - Kishi's economic policies are characterized by a commitment to "more responsible" fiscal expansion, with a focus on coordinating closely with the Bank of Japan [9]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing short-term fluctuations as the National Day holiday approaches, with a cautious sentiment among investors leading to profit-taking and adjustments in positions [1][2][16] - The technology sector has shown signs of a temporary pullback, while financial and consumer sectors demonstrate resilience, indicating a short-term style switch in the market [1][2][16] Short-term Strategy - For short-term investors, it is advisable to take profits on stocks that have seen significant gains recently to mitigate holding risks [2][16] - Long-term investors should remain patient with quality companies that have solid fundamentals and clear industry prospects, particularly in the technology sector [2][16] Sector Analysis Technology Sector - The technology sector, particularly AI, semiconductors, and robotics, is highlighted as a long-term investment opportunity, especially during the current market correction [2][16] - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its upward trajectory, supported by national policies and increasing global demand for AI and high-performance computing [10] New Energy Sector - The new energy sector remains a focus for investors, with leading companies expected to benefit from both valuation recovery and performance growth [3][9][17] - The demand for lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and wind energy is projected to persist as global efforts to achieve carbon neutrality continue [9][17] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector is showing signs of recovery, with new policies in major cities aimed at boosting market demand and improving the financial health of real estate companies [11] - Investors are encouraged to look for opportunities in quality companies with strong land reserves and stable growth prospects [11] Precious Metals - The precious metals sector has seen price increases driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and rising geopolitical tensions, making gold an attractive investment [12][13] Gaming Sector - The gaming sector has experienced volatility, with recent advancements in AI technology providing growth opportunities in content production and interactive entertainment [14] Banking Sector - The banking sector is stabilizing, with high dividend yield stocks continuing to attract investor interest, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [15]

Group 1: Gold Market - Geopolitical tensions are rising again, with conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, which may support gold prices in the short term [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, combined with escalating geopolitical friction, will provide short-term support for gold prices [2] - The recent price action shows a strong upward trend, with potential to test historical highs around $3500 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - OPEC+ has completed its production increase plan ahead of schedule, with Saudi Arabia expected to continue increasing oil output [2] - The U.S. oil production is stable at 13.41 million barrels per day, projected to rise by 200,000 barrels per day in 2024 [2] - Despite geopolitical tensions providing short-term support, the oil market is expected to return to a supply-demand balance, leading to a downward adjustment in oil prices [2] Group 3: Currency Market - The U.S. core PCE price index for July recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, the highest since February 2025, aligning with market expectations [3] - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in September is estimated at 87.4%, with a significant chance of further cuts in October [3] - The dollar index is currently testing the 97 level, with expectations of downward movement due to anticipated rate cuts [3] Group 4: Stock Market - The Nikkei 225 index has shown signs of a pullback, with a potential test of the 62-day moving average [4] - The copper market is experiencing a period of low-level adjustment after a significant drop in late July, with potential for a rebound [4]

Group 1: Gold Market - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending August 2 reached 226,000, slightly above market expectations and previous values, indicating a weak employment market [1] - President Trump has nominated Stephen Moore as a temporary Federal Reserve governor, with a dovish stance likely to influence future monetary policy [1] - Analysts suggest a high probability of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts due to recent weak economic data [1] - Technical indicators show a sideways trend for gold, with resistance at $3424 and support at $3360 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Geopolitical tensions are expected to ease, with potential U.S.-Russia talks scheduled, which may reduce supply disruption risks and could lead to the lifting of secondary sanctions on Russia [2] - Despite the easing tensions, U.S. oil demand remains high, supported by a significant drop in EIA crude oil inventory data [2] - Saudi Arabia's unexpected increase in official crude oil prices indicates a positive outlook for future oil demand, limiting potential price declines [2] - Technical analysis shows a bearish trend for oil prices, with resistance at $65 and support at $62.51 [2] Group 3: U.S. Dollar Index - The nomination of Stephen Moore and the potential appointment of a dovish Federal Reserve chair are likely to put pressure on the U.S. dollar [3] - Market expectations indicate a 92.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook for the dollar, with risks of further declines towards the 97.92 level [3] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown strong performance recently, with support found at the 62-day moving average [5] - The index is in an upward trend, with potential for further gains if it breaks above previous highs [5] Group 5: Copper Market - Copper prices have been relatively stagnant following a significant drop at the end of July, entering a phase of technical correction [6] - The market remains under bearish pressure, with prices fluctuating between $4.28 and $4.44 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are intensifying the competition between bullish and bearish positions in the gold market, leading to an influx of safe-haven investments into gold [1] Group 1 - Geopolitical friction is driving investors to seek refuge in gold, indicating a potential increase in demand for the precious metal [1] - The market is experiencing a significant battle between long and short positions, reflecting heightened volatility and uncertainty [1] - The question remains whether the recent pullback in gold prices will attract more buyers, suggesting a potential rebound in the market [1]

Gold Market - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is 94.4%, and in July, it is 74.9%, indicating a low likelihood of short-term rate cuts, which may pressure gold prices [2] - The EU plans to accelerate trade negotiations with the US under pressure, while Japan is set to hold the fourth round of tariff talks with the US on the 30th, suggesting a cooling of trade tensions [2] - Analysts warn of further risks of gold price declines due to reduced safe-haven demand and the recent bearish market trend, with key resistance at $3328 and support at $3285 [2] Oil Market - OPEC+ has not yet discussed increasing oil production by 410,000 barrels per day ahead of their upcoming meetings, which may impact oil prices negatively [3] - Geopolitical uncertainties remain, with Germany lifting restrictions on military aid to Ukraine and Iran preparing for potential actions against Israel, which may limit the downside for oil prices [3] Copper Market - Recent trading shows a decline from high levels, with a warning of further potential drops; support may be found at the 62-day moving average [7] Nikkei 225 Index - The index has shown strong upward movement, closing positively, and has regained its position above the 20-day moving average, indicating potential for further gains [8]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential resumption of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, raising questions about whether geopolitical tensions can be alleviated [1] - It highlights the current state of gold prices, which are testing the support level of 3205, and speculates on the possibility of a short-term reversal [1]