Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a high-end beauty brand in China, leveraging its founder's expertise in Eastern aesthetics and professional quality to create a competitive edge in the cosmetics market [5][6]. - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with projected revenues reaching 3.885 billion yuan in 2024, up 34.6% year-on-year, and net profits expected to hit 881 million yuan, reflecting an 88% increase [4][6]. - The brand's strong market presence is supported by a family-run business model, extensive experience in the beauty industry, and effective marketing strategies that resonate with younger consumers [5][6][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The Chinese cosmetics market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.4% from 2023 to 2028, reaching 175.2 billion yuan by 2028 [10]. 2. Company Profile - Founded in 2000, the company has established itself as a leader in high-end domestic cosmetics, with a focus on integrating art and product development [5][14]. - The company operates under a family business model, with significant ownership held by the founder and family members, ensuring a cohesive strategic direction [22][24]. 3. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 2.886 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected increase to 3.885 billion yuan in 2024, and net profits expected to rise from 662 million yuan to 881 million yuan in the same period [4][6][26]. - The gross margin remains high, with cosmetic products achieving over 80% gross margin, indicating strong profitability compared to peers [29][30]. 4. Brand Development and Marketing - The brand has successfully built a strong identity through collaborations with cultural institutions and participation in major events, enhancing its market positioning [36][37]. - The company has expanded its online presence significantly, with online sales accounting for 47.8% of total revenue in 2024, reflecting a strategic shift towards digital marketing [5][6][9]. 5. Product and Channel Expansion - The company has diversified its product offerings, with color cosmetics generating 2.304 billion yuan in sales in 2024, and skincare products contributing 1.429 billion yuan [5][6]. - The company continues to explore new product categories, including the introduction of a fragrance line in 2025, which is expected to drive future growth [5][6].

机构：国海证券 研究员：芦冠宇 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明3公司历史悠久、品牌底蕴深厚：毛戈平化妆品股份有限 公司由中国著名化妆师毛戈平先生于2000年创立，在中国美妆行业中树立显著的品牌影响力。毛戈平先 生曾是中国知名化妆师自带IP，后经营小红书等内容平台传播品牌。目前公司旗下拥有两个主要品牌： MAOGEPING和至爱终生，业务涵盖彩妆、护肤和化妆培训三大板块。 盈利预测与投资建议：我们预计公司2025-2027年实现收入53.68/69.76/87.85亿元人民币，同比 +38%/+30%/+26%；归母净利润12.0/15.8/19.7亿元人民币，同比+36.7%/+30.9%/+24.9%；对应2025年5 月14日收盘价99.90港元，2025-2027年PE值为37/29/23X。我们长期看好公司彩妆和护肤品双赛道产品 矩阵的发展，也看好公司线上线下渠道未来的成长，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：宏观经济风险、竞争加剧风险、产品开发不及预期风险、关键人物风险、外包供应商生产风 险、各公司及产品并不具备完全可比性，对标的相关资料和数据仅供参考。 品牌势能破圈加速，成长空间大：作为专业化 ...