证券研究报告 Take-Two 互动软件 (TTWO US) 4QFY25 公司净预定量为 15.8 亿美元，符合此前公司 15.2-16.2 亿美元的 季度指引。管理层表示增长主要来自于 NBA 2K 表现较好且消费者重复支出 同比+42%，而移动端 Match Factory、Toon Blast 和新游 Color Block Jam 的收入增长势头良好。公司指引 FY26 全年净预定量 59.0-60.0 亿美元，总 收入 59.5-60.5 亿美元，GAAP 净利润-4.4 至 5.0 亿元。 主要产品情况：GTA VI 延期至 2026 年 5 月上线，新预告片反响强烈 在核心产品中，管理层预计 GTA VI 将延期至 2026 年 5 月 26 日上线，我们 认为虽有所延期，但较此前较为模糊的时间段指引（2025 年秋季）更为清 晰，后续再度延期概率或相对较小，有助于稳定市场对公司中长期估值信心； 此外管理层表示近期发布的第二部 GTA VI 预告片 24 小时内观看量超 4.75 亿次，创下了游戏视频播放量历史记录，我们认为充分表明了玩家对于 GTA VI 的热烈期待，或为后续游戏上线销量提供 ...

Core Insights - TakeTwo Interactive Software (TTWO) reported a GAAP net loss of $21.08 per share for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, which is wider than the loss of $17.02 in the same quarter last year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings was $1.08 per share [1] - GAAP net revenues increased by 13.1% year over year to $1.58 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.55 billion [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenues from the United States rose by 9.8% year over year to $946.1 million, accounting for 59.8% of total GAAP net revenues. International revenues increased by 18.3% year over year to $636.4 million [2] - Game revenues, which represent 93.1% of total revenues, grew by 16.9% year over year to $1.47 billion, while advertising revenues, making up 6.9% of total revenues, fell by 21.7% year over year to $108.7 million [2] Bookings Performance - Total bookings improved by 17.3% year over year to $1.58 billion, with U.S. bookings increasing by 17.4% to $961.1 million, representing 60.8% of total bookings. International bookings rose by 17.1% to $620.4 million [3] - Recurrent consumer spending increased by 14% for the period, accounting for 77% of net bookings [4] Distribution Channels - Digital online revenues grew by 14.3% year over year to $1.53 billion, making up 96.4% of GAAP net revenues. Conversely, physical retail and other revenues declined by 11.4% to $56.9 million, representing 3.6% of total revenues [4] Platform Revenue Insights - Revenues from mobile, console, and PC/other accounted for 47.2%, 37.4%, and 15.4% of GAAP net revenues, respectively. Mobile revenues increased by 4.6% to $747.4 million, console revenues rose by 4% to $591.2 million, and PC/other revenues surged by 110.7% to $243.6 million [6] Gaming Performance Highlights - NBA 2K25 achieved near-record performance, selling nearly 10 million units, a 7% increase compared to NBA 2K24 [8] - The Grand Theft Auto series exceeded expectations, with GTA V selling over 215 million units, and Red Dead Redemption 2 showing a 23% year-over-year growth in net bookings [10] Operating Details - GAAP gross profit surged by 71.2% year over year to $803.3 million, with gross margin expanding to 50.8% from 33.5% in the previous year [13] - Operating expenses rose by 43.9% year over year to $4.58 billion, with a notable operating loss of $3.78 billion compared to a loss of $2.71 billion in the prior year [14] Financial Position - As of March 31, 2025, TakeTwo had $1.47 billion in cash and short-term investments, up from $1.21 billion as of December 31, 2024. The company had a total debt of $2.51 billion [15] Future Guidance - For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, TakeTwo expects GAAP net revenues between $1.35 billion and $1.40 billion, with anticipated operating expenses between $908 million and $918 million. The expected loss per share is projected to be between 78 cents and 65 cents [16] - For fiscal 2026, the company forecasts GAAP net revenues between $5.95 billion and $6.05 billion, with net bookings expected in the range of $5.9 billion to $6 billion [18]