RT marek.celo.eth 🦇🌳 (@marek_)Visiting @EFDevcon and want to pay like a local using your self custodial wallet?Check out today's release of Minipay, now with Mercado Pago support 🤯 ...

Key Takeaways MELI's fast-growing credit portfolio is reshaping its risk exposure across core markets. MELI's slipping NIMAL highlight pressure from rapid, capital-intensive loan expansion.MercadoLibre faces added risk strain as Sea Limited and Nu Holdings intensify regional credit competition.MercadoLibre’s (MELI) Mercado Pago division has transformed from a payment platform into a large-scale lender, reshaping the company’s overall risk exposure. In 2025, Mercado Pago accelerated loan deployment sharply, ...

Key Takeaways MELI's Latin American focus heightens exposure to credit, currency and competitive pressures. AMZN gains stability from global diversification, dense logistics and expanding high-margin advertising. MELI's falling EPS estimates contrast with AMZN's rising outlook, widening their earnings gap. MercadoLibre (MELI) and Amazon (AMZN) represent two distinct yet compelling approaches to capturing the e-commerce growth opportunity across the Americas. Amazon operates as a vertically integrated market ...

Core Insights - Shopify shares have appreciated 31.3% in the past six months, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's growth of 28.5% [1][10] - The question arises whether investors should buy, hold, or sell the stock at present [1] Merchant Base and Growth - Shopify's expanding merchant base is a critical pillar for long-term growth, with GMV increasing by approximately 32% year over year in Q3 [2] - Monthly recurring revenues reached a new record, indicating growth in paid subscriptions and higher ARPU as more merchants adopt advanced plans [2] - The quality of Shopify's merchant ecosystem is strengthening, with significant GMV contributions from long-term merchants, highlighting platform stickiness and retention [3] - International expansion is contributing to GMV growth, particularly in Europe, and deeper adoption of Shopify Payments and AI tools is increasing wallet share per merchant [4][5] Financial Performance - Shopify's free cash flow margin was 18% in Q3 2025, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of double-digit performance [6] - The free cash flow margin for the first nine months of the year held at 16%, showcasing consistent cash-generating capabilities [6] - Management expects the fourth-quarter free cash flow margin to exceed third-quarter levels, indicating confidence in sustaining strong cash flows [8] Competitive Landscape - Shopify faces intense competition from Amazon, Adobe, and MercadoLibre, which are expanding their platforms and pressuring Shopify's market position [9][10] - Amazon is a significant threat with its "Buy with Prime" initiative and enhanced AI shopping experience [9] - Adobe Commerce is preferred by large businesses needing customization, posing a challenge in the enterprise segment [11] - MercadoLibre is gaining traction in Latin America with strong GMV growth and a seamless ecosystem [12] Valuation and Market Position - Shopify's forward price-to-sales ratio is 14.95X, significantly higher than the Zacks Internet Services industry's average of 7.08X, indicating overvaluation [16] - Shares are trading below the 50-day moving average, suggesting a bearish trend and limited near-term upside [20] Conclusion - Shopify benefits from a growing and diversified merchant base and strong free cash flow, supporting long-term expansion [22] - However, rising competition and high valuation raise concerns for investors despite solid fundamentals [22] - The recommendation is to hold the stock at present [23]

Core Insights - MayTech Global Investments disclosed a sale of 1,148 shares of MercadoLibre, reducing its position by approximately $2.7 million, bringing its total holdings to 25,081 shares valued at $58.6 million at the end of the third quarter [1][2]. Company Overview - MercadoLibre is a leading e-commerce and fintech platform in Latin America, with a market capitalization of $106.7 billion and a revenue of $26.2 billion over the trailing twelve months (TTM) [4][5]. - The company offers a wide range of services including e-commerce platforms, digital payments (Mercado Pago), logistics (Mercado Envios), credit, investment products, classifieds, advertising, and digital storefront solutions [7]. Financial Performance - As of November 11, 2025, MercadoLibre shares were priced at $2,099.57, reflecting a 7% increase over the past year, although this underperformed the S&P 500 by 2 percentage points [3]. - The company has demonstrated robust growth, with sales increasing by more than 35% annually over the last year, five years, and ten years [11]. Investment Position - Following the recent sale, MercadoLibre now accounts for 6.1% of MayTech Global Investments' assets under management (AUM), down from 7.0% in the previous quarter [3][6]. - The top holdings of MayTech Global Investments include Nvidia, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Amazon, and MercadoLibre, with MercadoLibre valued at $58.6 million [6]. Market Context - MercadoLibre is viewed as a key player in the rapidly expanding digital economy in Latin America, leveraging its integrated marketplace and logistics infrastructure to drive growth [8]. - Despite trading at 50 times forward earnings, MercadoLibre's growth story remains compelling, indicating potential for future investment opportunities [12].

Core Insights - MercadoLibre (MELI) is under increasing scrutiny regarding its ability to maintain profitability while aggressively expanding in Latin America's e-commerce and fintech sectors [1][3] - The company's strategy of lowering free shipping thresholds and expanding logistics has strengthened its ecosystem but also exposes vulnerabilities as it trades short-term margins for long-term scale [1][3] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, MELI's operating margin decreased by 70 basis points year-over-year to 9.8%, and gross profit margin fell by 260 basis points to 43.3% [2][7] - The growth in logistics efficiency appears to be flattening, with unit shipping costs in Brazil declining only 8% sequentially despite a 42% increase in items sold [2] - Mercado Pago's credit portfolio increased by 83% to $11 billion, but net interest margin after losses compressed to 21%, indicating capital intensity in scaling financial services [2] Growth Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q4 2025 revenues is $8.54 billion, reflecting a 39.48% year-over-year increase [3] - The central issue for MercadoLibre is whether its growth can coexist with healthy profitability, as rising logistics and credit costs challenge the balance between expansion and earnings [3] Competitive Landscape - MercadoLibre faces intensified competition from Sea Limited and Amazon, both of which are expanding their presence in Latin America's e-commerce and fintech markets [4] - Sea Limited is enhancing its Shopee platform and digital finance services, while Amazon is strengthening its logistics and local marketplace capabilities [4] Stock Performance and Valuation - MELI shares have risen by 23.4% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Internet-Commerce industry and the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector [5] - The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio of 3.03X, compared to the industry's 2.48X, indicating a relatively higher valuation [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MELI's 2025 earnings is $40.27 per share, down 6.8% over the past 30 days, suggesting a year-over-year growth of 6.85% [11]

Core Insights - Deep-pocketed investors have adopted a bearish approach towards MercadoLibre, indicating potential significant market movements ahead [1] - The options activity shows a divided sentiment among investors, with 40% bearish and 26% bullish [2] - The price target for MercadoLibre is projected between $1200.0 and $2440.0 based on recent trading activity [3] Options Activity - There has been extraordinary options activity for MercadoLibre, with a total of 15 notable trades observed [2] - The mean open interest for options trades is 39.36, with a total volume of 43.00 [4] - The largest options trades include significant put and call options, with notable bearish and bullish sentiments [9] Company Overview - MercadoLibre operates the largest e-commerce marketplace in Latin America, with over 218 million active users and 1 million active sellers [10] - The company generates revenue from various sources, including final value fees, advertising royalties, payment processing, and interest income [10] Analyst Ratings - Recent analyst evaluations set an average price target of $2801.0 for MercadoLibre, with various ratings ranging from Neutral to Overweight [12][13] - Specific target prices from analysts include $2650 from JP Morgan, $2750 from Cantor Fitzgerald, and $2950 from Morgan Stanley [13] Current Market Status - The current trading volume for MercadoLibre is 66,428, with the stock price down by 1.01% to $2087.2 [15] - The next earnings report is scheduled for 101 days from now [15]

Core Insights - The next decade of growth will be driven by digital innovation, e-commerce expansion, and semiconductor dominance, with only a few companies positioned for long-term success [1] Group 1: Company Overviews - Shopify is a leading global e-commerce platform used by millions of merchants in around 175 countries, offering an integrated commerce stack that includes payment processing and logistics [3][5] - MercadoLibre dominates e-commerce and fintech in Latin America, with significant market shares in Brazil (27%), Argentina (68%), and Mexico (14%) [6] - TSMC is a key player in the semiconductor industry, providing advanced chips essential for AI model builders, with a strong revenue outlook for Q4 2025 [7][12] Group 2: Financial Performance - Shopify's financial indicators for Q2 2025 show strong growth, with revenue and gross merchandise volume increasing by 31% year-on-year [8] - MercadoLibre reported net revenues of US$33.1 billion for Q3 2025, a 40.8% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 59.5% [8] - TSMC's revenue for Q3 2025 is projected to be between US$32.2 billion and US$33.4 billion, with a gross profit margin expected between 59% and 61% [7][11] Group 3: Market Trends and Innovations - The trend of agentic commerce, where AI agents facilitate transactions, is emerging, with Shopify partnering with OpenAI's ChatGPT to leverage this trend [4] - TSMC is advancing its manufacturing capabilities with the introduction of 2nm process technology, enhancing supply chain resilience for clients [11] Group 4: Investment Potential - Investments in Shopify, MercadoLibre, and TSMC since 2016 have yielded compounded total returns ranging from approximately 1,000% to 4,700%, indicating strong long-term growth potential [14] - These companies are positioned in secular growth markets, making them attractive for long-term investment strategies [13][15]

Core Insights - MercadoLibre's (MELI) third-quarter 2025 earnings showed strong revenue growth but missed earnings expectations, indicating underlying issues despite a 39.5% year-over-year revenue increase to $7.41 billion, surpassing estimates by 2.15% [1] - Earnings per share of $8.32 fell short of consensus by 11.77%, highlighting concerns over profitability amid competitive pressures and margin erosion [1][9] Revenue and Growth - Revenue surged 39.5% year over year to $7.41 billion, driven by aggressive scaling in commerce and fintech [1][2] - Operating income increased by 30% year over year to $724 million, but operating margin decreased to 9.8% from 10.5% in the previous year [2] Margin and Cost Pressures - Brazil's reduction of the free-shipping threshold from R$79 to R$19 led to a 42% increase in items sold and a 34% rise in gross merchandise volume, but also inflated fulfillment and logistics costs, resulting in a decline in Brazil's direct contribution margin [3] - Gross margin contracted to 49% from 52% year over year due to higher shipping subsidies and increased infrastructure costs [3] Regional Challenges - In Argentina, revenue growth of 39.5% in U.S. dollars masked a 97% increase in local currency, primarily driven by inflation rather than real consumption [4] - Peso depreciation and rising funding costs negatively impacted profitability, with foreign-exchange losses more than doubling from the previous year [4] Competitive Landscape - Amazon's expansion in Brazil and Mexico poses a significant threat to MELI's logistics advantage, as it can sustain free-shipping incentives longer and at a lower cost [6] - Nubank is emerging as a major competitor in fintech, eroding MELI's dominance in digital payments and consumer credit, with over 100 million users and a low-cost model [7] - Sea Limited's Shopee is increasing pressure on MELI's marketplace through aggressive discounts and subsidies, impacting MELI's take rates [8] Valuation and Market Performance - MELI's stock has risen 35.6% year-to-date, outpacing industry averages, but this growth may not be sustainable without improvements in profitability [10] - Trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 38.44X, MELI is at a premium compared to industry and sector averages, which may be difficult to justify given ongoing margin compression [12] Conclusion - Despite being a regional leader, MELI's third-quarter results reveal a growing gap between growth and profitability, with compressing margins and increasing competition [14] - The stock's premium valuation and recent performance suggest that current optimism may not align with underlying fundamentals, indicating potential downside risks [14]

Core Insights - MercadoLibre (MELI) reported Q3 2025 earnings of $8.32 per share, missing estimates by 11.77% but increasing 6.26% year over year. Revenues rose 39.5% year over year to $7.41 billion, surpassing estimates by 2.15% [1][9] Revenue Breakdown - Total revenues were driven by strong growth in commerce and fintech segments, which grew 33% and 49% year over year to $4.17 billion and $3.24 billion, respectively [2] - Brazil generated $4.01 billion in net revenues (54.1% of total), up 37.6% year over year. Mexico's revenues reached $1.65 billion (22.3% of total), increasing 44.2% year over year. Argentina's revenues were $1.44 billion (19.4% of total), reflecting a 39.5% year-over-year increase [5] - Other countries contributed $308 million (4.2% of total revenues), representing a growth of 39.4% year over year [6] Key Metrics - Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) was $16.5 billion, increasing 28% year over year and 35% on a foreign exchange-neutral basis [7] - Items sold grew 39.3% year over year to 635.2 million, with unique buyers increasing by 26% to 76.8 million [3] - Fintech Monthly Active Users rose 29% year over year to 72.2 million, with Assets Under Management growing 89% to $15.1 billion [3] Advertising and Market Performance - Revenues from advertising services rose 56% year over year on a reported basis and 63% on a foreign exchange-neutral basis [4] - MELI's shares appreciated 35% year-to-date, outperforming the Internet-Commerce industry's return of 12.1% [4] Operating Details - Gross margin contracted to 43.3%, while operating margin declined 70 basis points to 9.8% [9][11] - Operating expenses increased 32% year over year to approximately $2.5 billion, but as a percentage of revenues, it contracted to 33.5% [11] Financial Position - As of September 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were $2.58 billion, down from $3.01 billion as of June 30, 2025. Net debt increased to $4.6 billion [13]