Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is experiencing growth in its charging and NAS (Network Attached Storage) businesses, driven by overseas expansion and AI-related demand. The report emphasizes that the pre-emptive expenses in Q2 may lead to profit realization in Q3 [7] - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.033 billion yuan (up 39.38% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 124 million yuan (up 18.67% year-on-year) [8] - The company’s overseas sales have rapidly increased, accounting for 60% of total sales in H1 2025, with domestic and international sales growing by 27% and 51% respectively [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for H1 2025 reached 3.857 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40.60%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 275 million yuan, up 32.74% year-on-year [8] - The charging business grew by 44% year-on-year in H1 2025, supported by new product launches and overseas expansion [8] - The storage business saw a significant increase of 125% year-on-year in H1 2025, driven by the growth in NAS sales [8] - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 decreased by 1.44 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product channel structure [8] Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 8.566 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 38.8%, and net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 651 million yuan, up 40.9% [9] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 46, 34, and 25 respectively, maintaining the "Buy" rating [9]

Core Insights - Ugreen Technology has built a billion-dollar revenue empire through consumer electronics accessories but faces significant challenges due to supply chain issues, technological hollowing, and channel imbalances [1] Group 1: Supply Chain Issues - Ugreen relies on over 75% external production, creating a fragile foundation that exposes the company to multiple risks [2] - The recent incident involving Ampre's material changes highlighted Ugreen's lack of technical oversight and inability to monitor supplier changes, leading to a crisis of trust [2] - Quality control issues are prevalent, with over 770 complaints on platforms citing problems like overheating chargers and broken data cables, indicating a reliance on low-cost materials [2] - The gross margin has declined from 49.74% in 2019 to 37% due to rising raw material costs and shipping prices, exacerbated by the reliance on external production [2] Group 2: Innovation Challenges - Ugreen's R&D investment remains low at 4.9%, limiting its ability to innovate and build a strong technological foundation [3] - The company has been criticized for its high number of utility patents without significant advancements in core technologies like chips and algorithms [3] - The pursuit of new markets has led to fragmented resources, with increased competition in both charging and storage products, further complicating Ugreen's growth strategy [3] Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - To overcome its challenges, Ugreen needs to enhance supply chain transparency and establish its own safety laboratories to mitigate risks [4] - Increasing R&D investment is crucial for creating a technological moat, particularly in advanced fields like GaN fast charging and solid-state batteries [4] - Ugreen should shift its focus from being a mere participant in e-commerce to becoming a standard setter in the industry, thereby reducing reliance on traffic-driven sales [4]