Market Overview - On January 7, the A-share market experienced a volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing in the green, marking a 14-day winning streak [1] - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw a slight increase of 0.45% after a morning surge, achieving five consecutive days of gains and attracting over 1.38 billion yuan in net inflow, totaling 3.5 billion yuan over four days [1] Industry Performance - The performance of constituent stocks in the Nonferrous 50 ETF was mixed, with Huayou Cobalt rising over 5%, Northern Rare Earth up over 4%, and Luoyang Molybdenum increasing by 1%. Conversely, Yun Aluminum fell over 3%, and Zijin Mining dropped over 2% [6] Copper Price Forecast - Citigroup updated its copper price forecast, suggesting that the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price could rise to $14,000 per ton within the next three months due to strong market momentum and bullish factors [3] - Factors contributing to this bullish outlook include cross-exchange arbitrage related to the U.S. market, global demand and growth expectations, and constrained copper supply [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side remains frequently disrupted, with Canadian miner Captone announcing a strike at its Manto Verde copper-gold mine in Chile [4] - From a financial perspective, the ongoing interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weak dollar are expected to support higher copper prices. The supply-demand dynamics indicate a robust demand side, driven by AI and emerging market developments [4][5] Long-term Price Projections - According to CITIC Securities, the LME copper price is projected to gradually rise to $9,800 per ton, $10,600 per ton, $11,200 per ton, and $12,000 per ton from 2025 to 2028, driven by the scarcity of copper resources and increasing demand [5] - The global refined copper demand is expected to grow at an average rate of around 2.5%, with supply gaps widening in the coming years [7] Investment Opportunities - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted as a strategic investment vehicle, covering various metal sectors and benefiting from the super cycle in nonferrous metals [9] - The ETF has a high concentration of copper and gold, with copper content at 34% and gold content at 12%, making it a leading option in its category [9] - The ETF's performance has been driven by earnings rather than valuation, with a PE ratio of 26.27, down 52% from five years ago, indicating a favorable valuation environment [14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is experiencing growth in its charging and NAS (Network Attached Storage) businesses, driven by overseas expansion and AI-related demand. The report emphasizes that the pre-emptive expenses in Q2 may lead to profit realization in Q3 [7] - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.033 billion yuan (up 39.38% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 124 million yuan (up 18.67% year-on-year) [8] - The company’s overseas sales have rapidly increased, accounting for 60% of total sales in H1 2025, with domestic and international sales growing by 27% and 51% respectively [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for H1 2025 reached 3.857 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40.60%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 275 million yuan, up 32.74% year-on-year [8] - The charging business grew by 44% year-on-year in H1 2025, supported by new product launches and overseas expansion [8] - The storage business saw a significant increase of 125% year-on-year in H1 2025, driven by the growth in NAS sales [8] - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 decreased by 1.44 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product channel structure [8] Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 8.566 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 38.8%, and net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 651 million yuan, up 40.9% [9] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 46, 34, and 25 respectively, maintaining the "Buy" rating [9]

Core Viewpoint - The judgment of a bullish trend in A-shares remains unchanged, with three key points influencing the market outlook [2]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Export Competitiveness - The unexpected joint statement reached between China and the U.S. in Geneva has raised new expectations for easing trade tensions, although the current results are not ideal, and the comprehensive tax rate remains above 50% [2]. - China's export competitiveness has not been compromised, indicating resilience in the supply chain, but there are concerns about future regulatory pressures and U.S. intentions to control Chinese exports [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Policies and Market Sentiment - Multiple policies aimed at stabilizing growth have been introduced, particularly focusing on stimulating domestic demand and upgrading industries. However, the marginal effectiveness of consumption subsidies is declining, and the real estate sector is experiencing significant slowdowns, leading to insufficient market confidence in overcoming deflation [3][5]. Group 3: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong market is relatively better, benefiting from the weakening of the U.S. dollar and the reshaping of global non-U.S. asset valuation systems. Currently, foreign capital is primarily engaging in short-term trading strategies, leading to a net outflow in the long term [6]. - Since the listing of a major company, foreign investment has started to increase, particularly from the Middle East, while domestic capital has significantly increased its holdings in Hong Kong stocks, shifting focus from the internet sector to new consumption [7][8]. Group 4: A-share Market Analysis - The "bottom" of the A-share market is continuously rising, supported by state intervention, although the effectiveness of current investment strategies is questioned, particularly those relying on leverage and small-cap stocks [10][12]. - The coal industry is facing significant challenges, with fundamental discrepancies affecting major players, and small-cap stocks are becoming overcrowded, leading to reduced trading volumes [13][15]. Group 5: Investment Strategies and Market Outlook - Current investment strategies are deemed ineffective, with a high risk of significant drawdowns for those relying on leveraged approaches or speculative stocks. The recent market downturn serves as a warning [17]. - Future investment opportunities may lie in technology-driven catalysts, the pace of U.S.-China negotiations, or domestic demand recovery, with a focus on policy changes being crucial for market movements [25][26]. Group 6: Broader Economic Context - The U.S. is facing inflation and limited room for interest rate cuts, while China is leveraging policies for counter-cyclical support and industrial upgrades, aiming for breakthroughs despite short-term pressures [27][30]. - A strong belief in China's market potential persists, with a focus on outmaneuvering U.S. financial strategies to stimulate market activity [31][33].