Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July 2025, China's CPI and core CPI both rose 0.4% month - on - month, mainly due to seasonal factors. The PPI decreased 0.2% month - on - month, and industrial producer prices remained sluggish. China's overall economic activity expectations are in a moderate state, and the inflation level may continue to hover at a low level for some time [5][15]. Summary by Related Content CPI Situation - **Year - on - Year Data**: In July, the national CPI was flat year - on - year, against a market expectation of a 0.1% decline and a previous value of a 0.1% increase. From January to July, the average CPI decreased 0.1% compared with the same period last year. Food prices in July decreased 1.6% year - on - year, pulling down the CPI by about 0.29 percentage points. Non - food prices rose 0.3% year - on - year, core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, consumer goods prices decreased 0.4% year - on - year, and service prices rose 0.5% year - on - year [2][6]. - **Month - on - Month Data**: In July, CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, mainly driven by the rise in service and industrial consumer goods prices. Food prices decreased 0.2% month - on - month, non - food prices rose 0.5% month - on - month, consumer goods prices rose 0.2% month - on - month, and service prices rose 0.6% month - on - month, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.26 percentage points. Core CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, mostly due to seasonal factors [3][7]. - **Eight - Category CPI**: In July, food and tobacco prices decreased 0.1% month - on - month, housing prices rose 0.1% month - on - month, transportation and communication prices rose 1.5% month - on - month, medical care prices rose 0.2% month - on - month, education, culture and entertainment prices rose 1.3% month - on - month, clothing prices decreased 0.3% month - on - month, daily necessities and services prices rose 0.8% month - on - month, and other supplies and services rose 0.9% month - on - month [8]. - **Future Outlook**: As of August 10, the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index was 113.96, lower than 126.50 in the same period last year. Agricultural product prices in July hovered at a low level and slightly increased in early August, but the increase rate was much lower than that of the same period last year. Agricultural product prices are unlikely to drive up the CPI in August [3][10]. PPI Situation - **Year - on - Year Data**: In July, the national PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year, against a market expectation of a 3.4% decline. From January to July, the average PPI decreased 2.9% compared with the same period last year. Production material prices decreased 4.3% year - on - year, and living material prices decreased 1.6% year - on - year [3][11]. - **Month - on - Month Data**: In July, PPI decreased 0.2% month - on - month. Production material prices decreased 0.2% month - on - month, and living material prices decreased 0.2% month - on - month. Some industries with large month - on - month price declines included coal mining and washing, non - metallic mineral products, and ferrous metal ore mining. Industries with relatively large month - on - month price increases included oil and gas extraction, oil, coal and other fuel processing, and non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling [4][13]. - **Industry - Specific Analysis**: The price of the automobile manufacturing industry decreased 0.3% month - on - month, indicating continuous price competition pressure in the automobile industry [4][13]. PMI Situation - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the fourth consecutive month. The new order index was 49.4%, back in the contraction range. The production and operation activity expectation index was 52.6%. The service business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The new order index was 46.3%, and the business activity expectation index was 56.6% [5][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS maintains an upward trend, and the far - month contracts are making up for the premium. The market is influenced by geopolitical conflicts, tariff policies, and the Middle East situation, with mixed long and short information, leading to wide - range fluctuations in the market. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates. It is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [1][4]. - Short - term, the market may rebound. Risk - preferring investors are advised to take partial profit when the market surges today. In the long - term, take profit when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [1][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Freight Index - On July 14, compared with July 11, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route rose 7.3% to 2421.94 points, while the SCFIS for the US - West route fell 18.7% to 1266.59 points. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) dropped 3.19% to 1218.03 points, the NCFI for the European route fell 0.50% to 1435.21 points, and the NCFI for the US - West route rose 0.85% to 1186.59 points. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index fell 30.20 points, the SCFI for the European route dropped 0.10% to 2099 USD/TEU, and the SCFI for the US - West route rose 5.03% to 2194 USD/FEU. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) fell 2.2%, the CCFI for the European route rose 1.9%, and the CCFI for the US - West route fell 5.2% [1]. Economic Data - In the Eurozone in June, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.4, the preliminary services PMI was 50 (a two - month high), and the preliminary composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 points from May. In the US in June, the preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI was 52, the preliminary services PMI was 53.1, and the preliminary composite PMI was 52.8 [2]. Market Situation - Trump continues to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, and some shipping companies have announced freight rate increases. The US plans to impose a 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU, and the Middle East situation may ease. The market is filled with mixed long and short information, causing wide - range fluctuations in the market [4]. Trading Strategies - Short - term: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - preferring investors who went long on the 2510 contract below 1300 are advised to take partial profit when the market surges today. For the EC2512 contract, short lightly above 1650 and set stop - loss and take - profit levels. - Arbitrage: In the context of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or participate with a light position. - Long - term: Take profit when each contract rises, and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before determining the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 16%. - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 26%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Economic Overview - In May, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1][2] - The comprehensive PMI output index increased by 0.2 percentage points, reflecting overall economic expansion [1][4] Manufacturing Sector - The new export orders index increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5%, suggesting a slowdown in the decline of manufacturing exports [2] - The new orders index rose by 0.6 percentage points to 49.8%, indicating stable market demand [2] - The manufacturing production index returned to the expansion zone at 50.7%, up by 0.9 percentage points [2] - The raw material purchasing index increased by 1.3 percentage points to 47.6%, showing a recovery in procurement activities [2] Key Industries - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months [3] - Equipment manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2%, and consumer goods PMI increased to 50.2%, reflecting improvements of 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points respectively [3] - Large enterprises' PMI increased by 1.5 percentage points to 50.7%, with production and new orders indices at 51.5% and 52.5% respectively [3] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.3%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points but still indicating expansion [4] - The service industry business activity index rose by 0.1 percentage points to 50.2%, while the construction industry index decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 51% [4] - The non-manufacturing business activity expectation index was at 55.9%, indicating optimism among businesses [4]