Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views Manufacturing PMI - Supply: Manufacturing production contracted. In October, the production index was 49.7, a change of -2.2 from the previous month. The supplier delivery time index was 50, a change of -0.8 from the previous month [3]. - Demand: Manufacturing demand declined. In October, the new order index was 48.8, a change of -0.9 from the previous month. The new export order index was 45.9, a change of -1.9 from the previous month. The backlog of orders index was 44.5, a change of -0.7 from the previous month [3]. - Supply - demand balance: The supply - demand relationship still needs improvement. In October, the supply - demand index (demand - supply) was -0.9, a change of 1.3 from the previous month, 1.1 from the same period last year, and 0.7 from the average of the past three years [3]. - Price: Manufacturing profitability contracted. In October, the raw material price index was 52.5, a change of -0.7 from the previous month. The ex - factory price index was 47.5, a change of -0.7 from the previous month. The difference between ex - factory price and raw material price was -5.0, a change of 0.0 from the previous month [3]. - Inventory: Pressure eased. In October, the finished goods inventory index was 48.1, a change of -0.1 from the previous month. The raw material inventory index was 47.3, a change of -1.2 from the previous month. The difference between new orders and finished goods inventory was 0.7, a change of -0.8 from the previous month [3]. Non - manufacturing PMI - Supply: Employment improved. In October, the employment index was 45.2, a change of 0.2 from the previous month. Among them, the construction industry was 39.9, a change of 0.2 from the previous month, and the service industry was 46.1, a change of 0.2 from the previous month. The supplier delivery time index was 50.9, a change of -0.2 from the previous month [4]. - Demand: Construction industry demand increased. In October, the new order index was 46, a change of 0.0 from the previous month. Among them, the construction industry was 45.9, a change of 3.7 from the previous month, and the service industry was 46.0, a change of -0.7 from the previous month. The new export order index was 46.2, a change of -3.6 from the previous month. The backlog of orders index was 43.6, a change of -0.8 from the previous month [4]. - Price: Prices rebounded. In October, the input price index was 49.4, a change of 0.4 from the previous month. Among them, the construction industry was 49.6, a change of 2.4 from the previous month, and the service industry was 49.4, a change of 0.1 from the previous month. The sales price index was 47.8, a change of 0.5 from the previous month. Among them, the construction industry was 48.4, a change of 0.3 from the previous month, and the service industry was 47.7, a change of 0.5 from the previous month [4]. - Inventory: Inventory increased. In October, the inventory index was 46, a change of 1.1 from the previous month and 0.3 from the same period last year [5]. Summary by Directory Macro Event - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0 (-0.8pct MoM); non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1 (+0.1pct MoM) [2] Overview - Affected by holidays, in October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0, a decline of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The composite PMI output index was 50.0, a decline of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [9] Demand - Manufacturing: Affected by holidays, in October, the new order index was 48.8, a change of -0.9 from the previous month; the new export order index was 45.9, a change of -1.9 from the previous month; the backlog of orders index was 44.5, a change of -0.7 from the previous month [17] - Non - manufacturing: In October, the new order index was 46, a change of 0.0 from the previous month, indicating that non - manufacturing order demand still needs improvement. Among them, the construction industry was 45.9, a change of 3.7 from the previous month, indicating that the demand in the construction industry began to improve; the service industry was 46.0, a change of -0.7 from the previous month, indicating that the demand in the service industry declined significantly. The new export order index was 46.2, a change of -3.6 from the previous month, indicating a decline in export demand. The backlog of orders index was 43.6, a change of -0.8 from the previous month, indicating that the inventory of existing orders began to be reduced [17] Supply - Manufacturing: In October, the production index was 49.7, a change of -2.2 from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activities; the production and business activity expectation index was 52.8, a change of -1.3 from the previous month, indicating a decline in expectations; the supplier delivery time index was 50, a change of -0.8 from the previous month, indicating a decline in supply chain response; the employment index was 48.3, a change of -0.2 from the previous month, indicating a contraction in employment [19] - Non - manufacturing: In October, the employment index was 45.2, a change of 0.2 from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in the employment contraction; among them, the construction industry was 39.9, a change of 0.2 from the previous month, indicating an improvement in employment, and the service industry was 46.1, a change of 0.2 from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in employment. The supplier delivery time index was 50.9, a change of -0.2 from the previous month, indicating a slight decline in supply chain response. The business activity expectation index was 56.1, a change of 0.4 from the previous month, indicating an improvement in activity sentiment; among them, the construction industry was 56.0, a change of 3.6 from the previous month, indicating an expansion in the construction industry, and the service industry was 56.1, a change of -0.2 from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the service industry [19] Price - Manufacturing: In October, the raw material price index was 52.5, a change of -0.7 from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing upstream costs; the ex - factory price index was 47.5, a change of -0.7 from the previous month, indicating continued price cuts for sales at the consumer end; the difference between ex - factory price and raw material price was -5.0, a change of 0.0 from the previous month, indicating that the contraction of corporate profit expectations still needs improvement [26] - Non - manufacturing: In October, the input price index was 49.4, a change of 0.4 from the previous month, indicating an increase in non - manufacturing costs. Among them, the construction industry was 49.6, a change of 2.4 from the previous month, indicating a rebound in construction industry costs; the service industry was 49.4, a change of 0.1 from the previous month, indicating a slight rebound in service industry costs. The sales price index was 47.8, a change of 0.5 from the previous month, indicating a price increase at the non - manufacturing consumer end. Among them, the construction industry was 48.4, a change of 0.3 from the previous month, indicating a price increase at the construction industry consumer end; the service industry was 47.7, a change of 0.5 from the previous month, indicating a price increase at the service industry consumer end [26] Inventory - Manufacturing: In October, the finished goods inventory index was 48.1, a change of -0.1 from the previous month, indicating a reduction in manufacturing de - stocking pressure; the raw material inventory index was 47.3, a change of -1.2 from the previous month, indicating de - stocking in the manufacturing upstream; the difference between new orders and finished goods inventory was 0.7, a change of -0.8 from the previous month, indicating a suspension of the improvement in manufacturing momentum during the de - stocking process [35] - Non - manufacturing: In October, the inventory index was 46, a change of 1.1 from the previous month and 0.3 from the same period last year, indicating an increase in non - manufacturing inventory [35] - Comprehensive: In October, the composite PMI index was 50, a change of -0.6 from the previous month and -0.8 from the same period last year, indicating a decline in the overall economic sentiment [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Manufacturing**: In October, the manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was at 6.7%, with a change of - 44.1%. Supply contracted (3 - month average: the production index was 50.8, down 0.3 percentage points month - on - month), demand declined (new orders were 49.3, down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month), and inventory increased (finished - product inventory up 0.2 percentage points to 47.7, raw - material inventory down 0.1 percentage points to 47.9) [3]. - **Non - manufacturing**: In October, the non - manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was at 16.9%, with a change of 5.1%. Supply slowed (3 - month average: the employee index was 45.3, down 0.1 percentage points month - on - month), demand increased (new orders were 46.2, up 0.1 percentage points month - on - month), and inventory increased (inventory was 45.5, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month) [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overview - Manufacturing PMI: In October, the five - year percentile was 6.7%, with a change of - 44.1%. Eight industries were in the expansion range, unchanged month - on - month and 3 less year - on - year [9]. - Non - manufacturing PMI: In October, the five - year percentile was 16.9%, with a change of 5.1%. Thirteen industries were in the expansion range, 5 more month - on - month and 1 more year - on - year [9]. 3.2 Demand: Focus on the Improvement of Automobile and Textile Industries - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of new orders in October was 49.3, down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. Eight industries improved month - on - month, and 7 declined [16]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of new orders in October was 46.2, up 0.1 percentage points month - on - month. Service new orders decreased 0.1 percentage points month - on - month, while construction new orders increased 1.1 percentage points month - on - month. Nine industries improved month - on - month, and 6 declined [16]. 3.3 Supply: Focus on the Decline of Civil Engineering and the Improvement of Automobile and Pharmaceutical Industries - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the production index in October was 50.8, down 0.3 percentage points month - on - month. Seven industries improved month - on - month, and 8 declined. The employee index was 48.2, up 0.1 percentage points month - on - month. Eleven industries improved month - on - month, and 4 declined [24]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the employee index in October was 45.3, down 0.1 percentage points month - on - month. Service decreased 0.1 percentage points month - on - month, and construction decreased 0.3 percentage points month - on - month. Ten industries improved month - on - month, and 3 declined [24]. 3.4 Price: Focus on the Decline of Ferrous Metals and the Improvement of Aviation - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the ex - factory price index in October was 48.3, down 0.3 percentage points month - on - month. Nine industries' ex - factory prices improved month - on - month, and 6 declined. The profit trend in March decreased 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, continuing to converge [32]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing charge price index in October was 47.9, unchanged month - on - month. Service was unchanged, and construction decreased 0.3 percentage points month - on - month. Ten industries improved month - on - month, and 5 declined. The profit in March increased 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, with service unchanged and construction increasing 2.7 percentage points month - on - month [32]. 3.5 Inventory: Focus on the De - stocking of Non - ferrous Metals, Postal, and Construction Decoration Industries - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the finished - product inventory in October increased 0.2 percentage points to 47.7. Nine industries' inventory increased month - on - month, and 6 declined. The raw - material inventory decreased 0.1 percentage points to 47.9. Eight industries' inventory increased month - on - month, and 6 declined [39]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing inventory in October was 45.5, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. Service increased 0.2 percentage points month - on - month, and construction increased 0.5 percentage points month - on - month. Four industries' inventory increased month - on - month, and 11 declined [39]. 3.6 Main Manufacturing Industry PMI Charts The report provides detailed data on various manufacturing industries' PMI, including specific values, month - on - month, year - on - year, and three - year average changes for multiple indicators such as new orders, production, and inventory in industries like special equipment, general equipment, automobiles, computers, and others [47][49][54].

Group 1: PMI Overview - In October 2025, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment[3] - The October PMI marks a break from two consecutive months of increases, reaching its lowest point for the year[4] - Historically, October PMI tends to weaken seasonally, with only 2016 and 2024 being exceptions due to specific economic reforms and policies[4] Group 2: Structural Issues - The decline in October's manufacturing PMI reflects structural contradictions in the economy, with the production index falling more than the demand index, indicating a need for improved business confidence[4] - The PMI new orders index decreased, and the PMI import index fell to 46.8%, suggesting that domestic market demand has not fully recovered[4] - The PMI new export orders index dropped by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, highlighting a marginal contraction in external demand due to global economic uncertainties[4] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The construction PMI and services PMI recorded 49.1% and 50.2% respectively, with slight declines in construction and minimal growth in services, indicating ongoing pressures in the non-manufacturing sector[5] - The construction PMI's decline suggests continued downward pressure in infrastructure and real estate, necessitating close monitoring of new policy financial tools[5] - While achieving a growth target of around 5% for the year remains feasible, attention must be paid to the continuity of policies in the fourth quarter[5] Group 4: Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include policies falling short of expectations, unexpected changes in the domestic economic landscape, and significant fluctuations in exports[5]

Manufacturing Sector Insights - August Manufacturing PMI stands at 49.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from July, remaining below the critical line for five consecutive months, indicating a continued decline in manufacturing sentiment[2] - Production Index at 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from July, suggests accelerated manufacturing production expansion[3] - New Orders Index at 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from July, indicates a slight improvement in market demand[3] - Raw Material Inventory Index at 48.0%, up 0.3 percentage points from July, shows a narrowing decline in major raw material inventory[3] - Employment Index at 47.9%, down 0.1 percentage points from July, reflects a slight decrease in employment sentiment within manufacturing[3] Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - August Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index at 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from July, continues to indicate expansion in the non-manufacturing sector[5] - Construction Business Activity Index at 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points from July, shows a decline in construction activity[9] - Service Sector Business Activity Index at 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from July, indicates growth in service activities[9] - New Orders Index for Non-Manufacturing at 46.6%, up 0.9 percentage points from July, suggests improved market demand in non-manufacturing[9] - Business Activity Expectation Index at 56.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from July, indicates optimism among non-manufacturing enterprises regarding market prospects[10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July 2025, China's CPI and core CPI both rose 0.4% month - on - month, mainly due to seasonal factors. The PPI decreased 0.2% month - on - month, and industrial producer prices remained sluggish. China's overall economic activity expectations are in a moderate state, and the inflation level may continue to hover at a low level for some time [5][15]. Summary by Related Content CPI Situation - **Year - on - Year Data**: In July, the national CPI was flat year - on - year, against a market expectation of a 0.1% decline and a previous value of a 0.1% increase. From January to July, the average CPI decreased 0.1% compared with the same period last year. Food prices in July decreased 1.6% year - on - year, pulling down the CPI by about 0.29 percentage points. Non - food prices rose 0.3% year - on - year, core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, consumer goods prices decreased 0.4% year - on - year, and service prices rose 0.5% year - on - year [2][6]. - **Month - on - Month Data**: In July, CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, mainly driven by the rise in service and industrial consumer goods prices. Food prices decreased 0.2% month - on - month, non - food prices rose 0.5% month - on - month, consumer goods prices rose 0.2% month - on - month, and service prices rose 0.6% month - on - month, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.26 percentage points. Core CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, mostly due to seasonal factors [3][7]. - **Eight - Category CPI**: In July, food and tobacco prices decreased 0.1% month - on - month, housing prices rose 0.1% month - on - month, transportation and communication prices rose 1.5% month - on - month, medical care prices rose 0.2% month - on - month, education, culture and entertainment prices rose 1.3% month - on - month, clothing prices decreased 0.3% month - on - month, daily necessities and services prices rose 0.8% month - on - month, and other supplies and services rose 0.9% month - on - month [8]. - **Future Outlook**: As of August 10, the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index was 113.96, lower than 126.50 in the same period last year. Agricultural product prices in July hovered at a low level and slightly increased in early August, but the increase rate was much lower than that of the same period last year. Agricultural product prices are unlikely to drive up the CPI in August [3][10]. PPI Situation - **Year - on - Year Data**: In July, the national PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year, against a market expectation of a 3.4% decline. From January to July, the average PPI decreased 2.9% compared with the same period last year. Production material prices decreased 4.3% year - on - year, and living material prices decreased 1.6% year - on - year [3][11]. - **Month - on - Month Data**: In July, PPI decreased 0.2% month - on - month. Production material prices decreased 0.2% month - on - month, and living material prices decreased 0.2% month - on - month. Some industries with large month - on - month price declines included coal mining and washing, non - metallic mineral products, and ferrous metal ore mining. Industries with relatively large month - on - month price increases included oil and gas extraction, oil, coal and other fuel processing, and non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling [4][13]. - **Industry - Specific Analysis**: The price of the automobile manufacturing industry decreased 0.3% month - on - month, indicating continuous price competition pressure in the automobile industry [4][13]. PMI Situation - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the fourth consecutive month. The new order index was 49.4%, back in the contraction range. The production and operation activity expectation index was 52.6%. The service business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The new order index was 46.3%, and the business activity expectation index was 56.6% [5][15].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3% in July, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1][2] - The production index remained in expansion at 50.5%, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [2] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from last month, but still above the critical point [4] - The service sector's business activity index was stable at 50.0%, with strong performance in transportation and tourism-related industries [4] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 50.6%, influenced by adverse weather conditions [4] Group 3: Price Indices - The price indices for major raw materials increased, with the purchasing price index at 51.5% and the factory price index at 48.3%, indicating an overall improvement in market prices [2] Group 4: Market Expectations - The production and business activity expectations index rose to 52.6%, showing increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [3] - The business activity expectations index for the service sector increased to 56.6%, indicating optimism among service industry enterprises [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS maintains an upward trend, and the far - month contracts are making up for the premium. The market is influenced by geopolitical conflicts, tariff policies, and the Middle East situation, with mixed long and short information, leading to wide - range fluctuations in the market. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates. It is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [1][4]. - Short - term, the market may rebound. Risk - preferring investors are advised to take partial profit when the market surges today. In the long - term, take profit when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [1][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Freight Index - On July 14, compared with July 11, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route rose 7.3% to 2421.94 points, while the SCFIS for the US - West route fell 18.7% to 1266.59 points. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) dropped 3.19% to 1218.03 points, the NCFI for the European route fell 0.50% to 1435.21 points, and the NCFI for the US - West route rose 0.85% to 1186.59 points. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index fell 30.20 points, the SCFI for the European route dropped 0.10% to 2099 USD/TEU, and the SCFI for the US - West route rose 5.03% to 2194 USD/FEU. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) fell 2.2%, the CCFI for the European route rose 1.9%, and the CCFI for the US - West route fell 5.2% [1]. Economic Data - In the Eurozone in June, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.4, the preliminary services PMI was 50 (a two - month high), and the preliminary composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 points from May. In the US in June, the preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI was 52, the preliminary services PMI was 53.1, and the preliminary composite PMI was 52.8 [2]. Market Situation - Trump continues to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, and some shipping companies have announced freight rate increases. The US plans to impose a 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU, and the Middle East situation may ease. The market is filled with mixed long and short information, causing wide - range fluctuations in the market [4]. Trading Strategies - Short - term: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - preferring investors who went long on the 2510 contract below 1300 are advised to take partial profit when the market surges today. For the EC2512 contract, short lightly above 1650 and set stop - loss and take - profit levels. - Arbitrage: In the context of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or participate with a light position. - Long - term: Take profit when each contract rises, and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before determining the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 16%. - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 26%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Economic Overview - In May, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1][2] - The comprehensive PMI output index increased by 0.2 percentage points, reflecting overall economic expansion [1][4] Manufacturing Sector - The new export orders index increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5%, suggesting a slowdown in the decline of manufacturing exports [2] - The new orders index rose by 0.6 percentage points to 49.8%, indicating stable market demand [2] - The manufacturing production index returned to the expansion zone at 50.7%, up by 0.9 percentage points [2] - The raw material purchasing index increased by 1.3 percentage points to 47.6%, showing a recovery in procurement activities [2] Key Industries - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months [3] - Equipment manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2%, and consumer goods PMI increased to 50.2%, reflecting improvements of 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points respectively [3] - Large enterprises' PMI increased by 1.5 percentage points to 50.7%, with production and new orders indices at 51.5% and 52.5% respectively [3] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.3%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points but still indicating expansion [4] - The service industry business activity index rose by 0.1 percentage points to 50.2%, while the construction industry index decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 51% [4] - The non-manufacturing business activity expectation index was at 55.9%, indicating optimism among businesses [4]