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集运早报-20250829
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 02:29
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the end of August and early September (week35 - 36). Week35's final average price is $2550 (1800 points), and week36's current average quoted price is $2300 (1600 points). Most shipping companies face cargo - receiving pressure at the end of the month, and the shipping capacity in September is generally reduced. The overall situation in September is loose, and the subsequent driving force remains weak. However, the valuation in October is approaching the annual low (1250 - 1300), with limited downside space. Attention can be paid to the long - allocation opportunity of the 12 - contract [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs EC Futures Contract Information - For EC2510, the closing price is 1285.0, with a decline of 2.36%, the base bond is 705.2, the trading volume is 25330, the open interest is 54248, and the open interest change is 523. Similar data is provided for other contracts such as EC2512, EC2602, etc [2] - The month - spread of EC2510 - 2512 is - 286.0, with a daily increase of 18.5 and a weekly increase of 66.2. The month - spread of EC2512 - 2602 is 171.0, with a daily decrease of 8.7 and a weekly decrease of 25.2 [2] Spot Rate Index Information - The SCFIS (European line) index on August 25, 2025, is 1990.2, with a decline of 8.35% compared to the previous period. The CCFI on August 22, 2025, is 1757.74, with a decline of 1.83% compared to the previous period. The NCFI on August 22, 2025, is 1083.74, with a decline of 8.83% compared to the previous period [2] Recent European Line Quotation Information - For week36, the latest quoted price of shipping companies ranges from $2120 to $2420, with an average of $2250 (1550 points). For week37, the latest average quoted price is $2200 (1500 points) [3] Shipping Capacity Information - The weekly average shipping capacity in September and October 2025 is 300,000 and 320,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended sailings, it is 290,000 and 290,000 TEU respectively. On August 26, the suspension of the FE4 route of the PA Alliance in week38 of September was filled by HMM AOUAMARINE, increasing the weekly average shipping capacity in September to 305,000 TEU [2] Related News - On August 29, the Israeli military stated that it was preparing to expand military operations against Hamas in Gaza City. The Houthi armed leader accused Israel of carrying out large - scale massacres against Palestine [4]
集运早报-20250716
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 01:55
Report Overview - No report industry investment rating is provided [1] - The core view is to present the latest data and trends of European line shipping, including EC futures contract prices, spot prices, freight indices, and capacity arrangements, as well as recent news and downstream booking information [1][2][3] EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 closed at 2126.0 with a 4.87% increase, trading volume of 30362, and a decrease of 6336 in open interest [1] - EC2510 closed at 1655.6 with a 14.92% increase, trading volume of 107782, and an increase of 13685 in open interest [1] - EC2512 closed at 1836.0 with a 16.17% increase, trading volume of 13026, and an increase of 1056 in open interest [1] - EC2602 closed at 1516.4 with a 9.40% increase, trading volume of 2983, and a decrease of 140 in open interest [1] - EC2604 closed at 1319.0 with an 8.24% increase, trading volume of 4507, and a decrease of 300 in open interest [1] - EC2606 closed at 1456.8 with a 5.40% increase, trading volume of 475, and an increase of 66 in open interest [1] - The spread between EC2508 and EC2510 was 470.4, a decrease of 116.1 compared to the previous day [1] - The spread between EC2510 and EC2512 was -180.4, a decrease of 40.6 compared to the previous day [1] - The spread between EC2512 and EC2602 was 319.6, an increase of 125.2 compared to the previous day [1] Spot Prices and Freight Indices - The spot price on July 14 was 2421.94 yuan, a 7.26% increase from the previous period [1] - The SCFI on July 11 was 2099 dollars/TEU, a 0.10% decrease from the previous period [1] - The CCFI on July 11 was 1726.41 points, a 1.90% increase from the previous period [1] - The NCFI on July 11 was 1435.21 yuan, a 0.50% decrease from the previous period [1] - The TCI on July 11 was 1019.55 yuan, unchanged from the previous period [1] Capacity Arrangements - The average weekly capacity in July and August 2025 is 295,000 and 322,300 TEU respectively [1] - According to market rumors, the average weekly capacity in August will be reduced to 310,000 TEU, with capacities of 311,000, 314,000, 310,000, and 294,000 TEU from week 31 to 35, and the overall pressure remains high [1] Recent European Line Quotations - Downstream customers are booking space for the second half of July (week 29 - 30) [2] - Shipping company quotes in the second half of July are mainly stable, with week 29 at around 3400 dollars [2] - Shipping companies slightly reduced quotes for the last week of July (week 30), with HPL, CMA, OOCL, and MSC reducing by about 200 dollars, and the average at 3300 dollars (equivalent to 2300 points) [2] - MSK quoted flat for week 31 at 2900 - 3000 dollars [3] Related News - On July 15, Israel submitted a third version of the Israeli army's withdrawal plan from Gaza to the mediators [3] - On July 16, the Yemeni Houthi armed forces launched "synchronized attacks" on two Israeli targets [3] - On July 16, the Israeli army issued an evacuation order to a northern Gaza town, stating that the battle was advancing towards the city center [3]
集运早报-20250709
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 07:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The shipping capacity in July and August 2025 is expected to put significant downward pressure on subsequent freight rates, as the shipping volume is gradually entering a downward period while the shipping capacity in the first week of August is as high as 340,000 TEU [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Price and Spread - EC2508 had a previous settlement price of 2006.2, a change of 6.23%, a basis of 251.8, a previous trading volume of 57,664, a previous open interest of 35,057, and an open interest change of 536. Other contracts (EC2510 - EC2606) also have their respective price, spread, volume, and open - interest data [1]. - The month - to - month spreads such as EC2508 - 2510, EC2510 - 2512, and EC2512 - 2602 showed different changes compared to the previous days and weeks [1]. 3.2 Spot Freight Rate Index - The Terdar index on July 7, 2025, was 2258.04 yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 6.35%. SCFI (European Line) on July 4, 2025, was 2101 dollars/TEU, up 3.50%. CCFI was 1694.3, up 3.27%. NCFI was 1442.46 points, down 0.03%. TCI on July 8, 2025, remained unchanged at 1019.55 points [1]. 3.3 Shipping Capacity Arrangement - The average weekly shipping capacity in July and August 2025 is 295,000 and 313,000 TEU respectively. The second week of July had neutral cargo intake with no over - booking. The third - week capacity was 320,000 TEU, the fourth - week capacity was 290,000 TEU, and the first - week capacity in August was 340,000 TEU [1]. 3.4 Recent European Line Quotations - Downstream customers are currently booking spaces for mid - July (week 28 - 29). The freight rate in early July (week 27 - 28) was around 3380 US dollars (equivalent to 2350 points). In late July, shipping company quotations were generally stable, with MSK offering a flat rate of 2950 US dollars. The current quotation range is 2950 - 3850 US dollars, with an average of 3500 US dollars (equivalent to 2500 points) [2].