February | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/8/25 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合组 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持命量 | 持合变动 | | | EC2508 | | 2127.7 | 0.13 | 52.5 | | 120 | 1968 | -92 | | | EC2510 | | 1309.0 | -1.21 | 871.2 | 25350 | | 54255 | -38 | | | EC2512 | | 1661.2 | -3.50 | 519.0 | 8311 | | 13295 | 1086 | | | EC2602 | | 1465.0 | -3.17 | 715.2 | 1372 | | 4455 | 52 | | 期货 | EC2604 | | 1264.5 | -1.94 | 915.7 | 1364 | | 5836 | 120 | | | EC2606 | | 1430.0 | -2.73 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The current major contradiction in the EC market is the decline rate during the off - season, affected by uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment [2][17] - In terms of fundamentals, in Week 33, the collection situation of the MSK improved, OA was average, and PA was poor; in Week 34, the collection significantly declined [2][17] - EMC canceled its independent ship in Week 35, and OA added a sailing suspension in Week 39. The weekly average capacities in August, September, and October 2025 (tentatively) are still high, with a slight decline [2][17] - Currently, the October contract is at a large discount to the spot. The decline of shipping companies in the past two weeks is in line with market expectations. The decline of the December contract did not drive the market down further. Due to the high liquidity and the support from continuous position - shifting, but the overall future drive is downward, and there is still room for valuation adjustment. It is recommended to hold the short position of the October contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [2][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - EC2508: Yesterday's closing price was 2083.9, with a change of 0.04%, trading volume of 92, open interest of 2556, and a change in open interest of - 73 [2][17] - EC2510: Closing price of 1359.5, change of 1.98%, trading volume of 32077, open interest of 56698, and a change in open interest of - 4042 [2][17] - EC2512: Closing price of 1723.3, change of 1.36%, trading volume of 6322, open interest of 11131, and a change in open interest of - 334 [2][17] - EC2602: Closing price of 1521.4, change of 2.24%, trading volume of 1393, open interest of 4424, and a change in open interest of - 35 [2][17] - EC2604: Closing price of 1335.0, change of 0.48%, trading volume of 1327, open interest of 5459, and a change in open interest of - 92 [2][17] - EC2606: Closing price of 1495.0, change of 1.49%, trading volume of 107, open interest of 832, and a change in open interest of 7 [2][17] Month - to - Month Spread - EC2508 - 2510: The spread was 724.4, with a day - on - day change of - 25.5 [2][17] - EC2510 - 2512: The spread was - 363.8, with a day - on - day change of 3.2 [2][17] - EC2512 - 2602: The spread was 201.9, with a day - on - day change of - 10.2 [2][17] Spot Index Information - SCHIS: Updated weekly on Mondays. On August 11, 2025, it was 2235.48 points, with a decline of 2.71% from the previous period and a decline of 0.81% in the previous period [2][17] - SCH (European line): Updated weekly on Fridays. On August 8, 2025, it was 1961 dollars/TEU, with a decline of 4.39% from the previous period and a decline of 1.87% in the previous period [2][17] - CCFI: Updated weekly on Fridays. On August 8, 2025, it was 1799.05 points, with a change of 0 - 3% from the previous period and an increase of 0.13% in the previous period [2][17] - NCFI: On August 8, 2025, it was 1257.71 points, with a decline of 8.57% from the previous period and a decline of 3.53% in the previous period [2][17] Recent European Line Quotations - Week 34: Shipping companies' prices dropped by 200 - 300 dollars, with an average of 2850 dollars (2000 points). PA Alliance was 2700 dollars, MSK was 2600 dollars, and OA Alliance was 2900 - 3000 dollars [3][18] - Week 35: The current average shipping company quotation is 2630 dollars (1800 points). MSK opened at 2200 dollars. HPL dropped 400 dollars to 2435 dollars, EMC dropped 200 dollars to 2934 dollars. On Thursday, HMM dropped 200 dollars to 2500 dollars, OOCL dropped 300 dollars to 2800 dollars, and ONE dropped 200 dollars to 2508 dollars [3][18] Related News - On August 14, Hamas proposed a cease - fire request, promising to evacuate and ensure the safety of the detained personnel [3][18] - On August 14, Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Haskell said that there must be a non - Israeli, peaceful, and non - armed government in Gaza after the war [3][18] Index Release Delay - The release of the XSI - C index was delayed by three working days [4][19]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current main contradictions in the EC market are the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment. It is recommended to continue holding short positions on the October contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Contents Futures Contract Information - For the EC2508 contract, the previous closing price was 2083.9, with a change of 0.04%, a basis of 151.6, a previous trading volume of 92, and a previous open interest of 2556 with a change of - 73. Other contracts like EC2510, EC2512, etc. also have their respective price, change, basis, trading volume, and open interest data [2] - The month - to - month spreads such as EC2508 - 2510, EC2510 - 2512, etc. have their previous - day, two - day - ago, and day - on - day change data [2] Index Information - The SCHIS SCFI (European line) was updated on August 11, 2025, at 2235.48 points, down 2.71% from the previous period and 4.39% from two periods ago. The CCFI was updated on August 8, 2025, at 1799.05 points, up 0.53% from the previous period. The NCFI was updated on August 8, 2025, at 1257.71 points, down 8.7% from the previous period [2] Shipping Company Quotation Information - In week 34, shipping companies' prices dropped by 200 - 300 US dollars, with an average of 2850 US dollars (2000 points). In week 35, the average shipping company quote was 2630 US dollars (1800 points) [3] - On Monday, MSK opened at 2200 US dollars; HPL dropped 400 to 2435 US dollars. On Wednesday, EMC dropped 200 to 2934 US dollars [9] News Information - On August 14, Hamas proposed a cease - fire request to Egypt, promising to evacuate and ensure the safety of the detained personnel. Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Haskell said that after the war, Gaza must have a non - Israeli, peaceful and non - armed government [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current main contradictions in the EC market are the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment [2][17] - Fundamentally, in the second week of August (week33), the MSK alliance had better performance, while the OA and PA alliances had poor performance in terms of receiving goods; the goods - receiving situation in week34 significantly weakened [2][17] - EMC cancelled its independent operation ship in week35 this week, and OA added new operations in week39. The weekly average capacities in August, September (tentatively), and October (tentatively) 2025 are 327,000, 321,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended operations, they are 327,000, 300,000, and 287,000 TEU [2][17] - From the perspective of the market, the current 10 - contract is at a discount to the spot, which has not led to a further decline in the market; the 12 - contract is given the attribute of the peak - season contract, and the continuous roll - over of positions supports it. However, the overall future drive is downward, and there is still some room for valuation. It is recommended to continue holding short positions in the 10 - contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [2][17] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data - For EC2508, the closing price was 2080.0, with a change of +0.43%, trading volume of 242, and open interest of 3330 with a change of - 102 [2][17] - For EC2510, the closing price was 1408.8, with a change of - 1.89%, trading volume of 44961, and open interest of 56688 with a change of +86 [2][17] - For EC2512, the closing price was 1750.0, with a change of - 0.57%, trading volume of 5/74 (might be a data error), and open interest of 10238 with a change of +33 [2][17] - For EC2602, the closing price was 1517.1, with a change of - 0.87%, trading volume of 1471, and open interest of 4202 with a change of +67 [2][17] - For EC2604, the closing price was 1344.9, with a change of - 0.60%, trading volume of 822, and open interest of 5295 with a change of - 108 [2][17] - For EC2606, the closing price was 1497.1, with a change of +0.44%, trading volume of 136, and open interest of 770 with a change of +30 [2][17] 2. Month - to - Month Spreads - The spread of EC2508 - 2510 was 671.2, with a day - on - day change of +36.2 and a week - on - week change of - 4.6 [2][17] - The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 341.2, with a day - on - day change of - 17.2 and a week - on - week change of - 63.7 [2][17] - The spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 232.9, with a day - on - day change of +3.3 and a week - on - week change of +34.8 [2][17] 3. Index Data - The SCHIS index on August 11, 2025, was 2235.48 points, with a change of - 2.71% compared to the previous period and - 0.81% in the previous change [2][17] - The SCF (European route) index on August 8, 2025, was 1961 dollars/TEU, with a change of - 4.39% compared to the previous period and - 1.87% in the previous change [2][17] - The CCFI index on August 8, 2025, was 1799.05 points, with a change of +0.53% compared to the previous period and +0.13% in the previous change [2][17] - The NCFI index on August 8, 2025, was 1257.71 points, with a change of - 8.37% compared to the previous period and - 3.3% in the previous change [2][17] 4. Recent European Route Quotation - The average quotation in week33 was about 3150 US dollars (equivalent to about 2200 points on the disk). Currently, downstream customers are booking spaces for mid - August (week33 - 34). In week34, the quotations of various shipping companies dropped by 200 - 300 US dollars, with an average of 2850 US dollars (2000 points). Among them, the PA alliance's quotation was 2700 US dollars, MSK's was 2600 US dollars, and the OA alliance's was 2900 - 3000 US dollars [3][18] - In week35, MSK opened bookings at 2200 US dollars [3][18] 5. News - On August 12, China and the US once again suspended the implementation of a 24% tariff for 90 days [3][18] - On August 11, Trump and Netanyahu discussed the "plan to take over Gaza City" [4][19] - On August 12, Egypt and Qatar proposed a new Gaza cease - fire plan, and a Hamas delegation will visit Egypt to restart the Gaza cease - fire negotiation [4][19]

Group 1: EC Futures Contract Information - EC2506 had a closing price of 1883.0 with a -0.42% change, a base of 54.1, a trading volume of 635, an open interest of 3361, and an open interest change of -172 [2] - EC2508 had a closing price of 1875.0 with a -0.79% change, a base of 62.1, a trading volume of 70521, an open interest of 47053, and an open interest change of 1085 [2] - EC2510 had a closing price of 1370.0 with a 0.74% change, a base of 567.1, a trading volume of 15474, an open interest of 31514, and an open interest change of 17/29 [2] - EC2512 had a closing price of 1530.1 with a -0.64% change, a base of 407.0, a trading volume of 2667, an open interest of 6656, and an open interest change of 460 [2] - EC2602 had a closing price of 1372.1 with a -0.64% change, a base of 565.0, and an open interest of 2939 with an open interest change of -39 [2] - EC2604 had a closing price of 1209.8 with a 0.72% change, a base of 727.3, a trading volume of 797, an open interest of 4156, and an open interest change of 169 [2] Group 2: Month - to - Month Spread - The EC2506 - 2508 spread was 8.0, compared to 1.0 the previous day, with a daily change of -130.7 and a weekly change of 144.2 [2] - The EC2508 - 2510 spread was 505.0, compared to 530.0 the previous day, with a daily change of 616.1 and a weekly change of -116.9 [2] - The EC2506 - 2510 spread was 513.0, compared to 531.0 the previous day, with a daily change of 485.4 and a weekly change of 27.3 [2] - The EC2510 - 2512 spread was -160.1, compared to -180.0 the previous day, with a daily change of -184.4 and a weekly change of 34.8 [2] - The EC2512 - 2602 spread was 158.0, compared to 159.0 the previous day, with a daily change of 152.5 and a weekly change of -21.5 [2] Group 3: Spot Market Indicators - The SCHIS spot index on 2025/6/23 was 1937.14, up 14.11% from the previous period and 4.61% from two periods ago [2] - The SCFI (European Line) on 2025/6/20 was $1835/TEU, down -0.49% from the previous period and up 10.62% from two periods ago [2] - The CCFI (European Line) on 2025/6/20 was 1578.6 points, up 6.03% from the previous period and 6.57% from two periods ago [2] - The NCFI on 2025/6/20 was 1299.58 points, down -0.64% from the previous period and up 16.40% from two periods ago [2] - The TCI on 2025/6/20 was 930.54 points, with no change from the previous period and up 6.97% from two periods ago [2] Group 4: Capacity Arrangement - The average weekly capacity in July and August 2025 was 293,000 and 304,000 TEU respectively [2] - The OA Alliance's FAL7 route week28 added a blank sailing this week [2] - Supply pressure in the first week of July was neutral, low in the third week, and high in the second and fourth weeks [2] Group 5: Recent European Line Quotations - Shipping companies announced price increases for July. MSK opened at $3400, and others were mostly between $3500 - $4000 [3] - Some shipping companies later lowered prices. MSK dropped to $3100, others were around $3500, with an average of $3400, equivalent to 2400 points on the futures [3] Group 6: News - On June 24, Trump announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a full cease - fire. Iran would start first, and Israel would follow after 12 hours [4] - White House senior officials said Israel agreed to the cease - fire on the condition that Iran would not launch further attacks, and Iran signaled it would not attack [4] - An advisor to the Iranian Parliament Speaker called Trump's cease - fire statement a provocation [4]