SCFI(欧线)指数
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集运早报-20260211
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-02-11 01:32
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current valuation of the 04 contract is neutral. In the medium term, the recommended strategy is to short on rallies [3]. - For far - month contracts, it's difficult to anchor the valuation of peak - season contracts, and it's hard to predict shipping companies' price - adjustment behavior. So, cautious operation is advised. The 10 - contract valuation is moderately high, and the strategy of shorting on rallies should be maintained [3]. - For new contracts, referring to historical seasonality and the valuation of old contracts, the reasonable valuation ranges of the 09 and 07 contracts are 1100 - 1300 and 1600 - 1800 points respectively. The subsequent strategy is mainly to short the 09 contract and long the 07 contract, but the valuation given by the market is already relatively reasonable. The 05 contract is at the off - peak to peak season transition point, and attention should be paid to the 4 - 5 reverse spread form [3]. - Before the Spring Festival holiday, frequent position - closing operations by funds are expected to cause large market fluctuations. Prudent operation is advised this week [3]. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - EC2604 closed at 1179.0 with a - 4.77% change, EC2605 at 1273.0, EC2606 at 1499.8 with a - 3.43% change, EC2608 at 1576.3 with a - 2.38% change, EC2610 at 1110.9 with a - 1.35% change, and EC2612 at 1380.0 with a - 3.19% change [2]. - The trading volume of EC2604 and EC2605 combined was 29560, and the open interest was 33899 with a change of 2767. The trading volume of EC2606 was 4155, and the open interest was 14740 with a change of 14. The trading volume of EC2608 was 340, and the open interest was 1416 with a change of 2. The trading volume of EC2610 was 1093, and the open interest was 8071 with a change of 178. The trading volume of EC2612 was 38, and the open interest was 127 with a change of - 11 [2]. - The month - spread of EC2604 - 2606 was - 320.8 (day - on - day change: - 5.8, week - on - week change: - 34.4), and the month - spread of EC2606 - 2610 was 388.9 (day - on - day change: - 38.0, week - on - week change: 5.8) [2]. Spot Market Information - The spot price (European line) on 2026/2/9 was 1657.94 points, a - 7.49% change from the previous period [2]. - The SCFI (European line) on 2026/2/6 was 1403 dollars/TEU, a - 1.06% change from the previous period [2]. - In Week 7, MSK's opening price was 1950 dollars (a decrease of 100 dollars compared to the previous period), PA was around 2000 dollars, MSC was 2140 dollars, OA was 2300 dollars. The central price was 2130 dollars, equivalent to 1500 points on the futures market. In Week 8 - 9, MSK's opening price remained at 1950 dollars. In March, MSC led a price - increase notice, followed by CMA, COSCO, and HPL, with the European line price expected to rise to 3000 - 3100 dollars. On Tuesday, MSK's opening price for Week 10 remained at 1950 dollars [4]. Related News - On February 10, Israel's Defense Forces were formulating a plan to launch a new offensive in the Gaza Strip to disarm Hamas [5]. - On February 11, the US military in Qatar loaded missiles onto mobile platforms. Since January, as the tension between the US and Iran escalated, the US military at the Al - Udeid Air Base in Qatar loaded missiles onto mobile launch platforms this month [5].
集运早报-20260119
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-19 02:38
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC2602 contract follows the delivery logic with a small deviation. For the EC2604 contract, attention should be paid to the spot market and actual rush - shipping situations. Spot price drops suppress the futures market, but the potential increase in post - Chinese - New - Year rush shipping may weaken the price decline slope in March. The current valuation of EC2604 fluctuates widely within a reasonable range, and subsequent corrective market conditions are worth noting [3]. - Export tax - rebate adjustments are negative for far - month contracts, but far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. It is generally recommended to focus on shorting the EC2610 contract at high levels. Currently, the valuation of EC2610 is neutral with limited downward space [3]. - After the exchange changes the contract rules on February 10, the EC2602 contract will be removed, and new contracts such as EC2605, EC2507, and EC2509 will be added. Seasonally, EC2607 is a peak season contract, while EC2605 and EC2609 are often off - season contracts. Considering geopolitical impacts, a positive spread arbitrage strategy is recommended, and combinations like EC2608 - EC2609 and EC2609 - EC2610 are relatively safe [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Price and Volume Information - The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 contracts are 1710.5, 1121.0, 1311.2, 1465.6, and 1055.1 respectively, with changes of - 0.49%, - 6.79%, - 7.713%, - 3.89%, and - 5.03% [2]. - The trading volumes of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 contracts are 2433, 49713, 4137, 448, and 2150 respectively, and the open interests are 7578, 42632, 3780, 1385, and 7938 respectively, with open - interest changes of - 1300, 1800, 7.32, 64, and 357 respectively [2]. - The month - spreads of EC2502 - 2604 and EC2504 - 2606 are 589.5 and - 190.2 respectively, with month - on - month changes of 73.2 and 28.9, and week - on - week changes of 122.3 and 14.1 [2]. Spot Market Information - The SCFIS (European route) index on January 12, 2026, is 1956.39 points, with a month - on - month increase of 8.94% and a previous - period increase of 3.05% [2]. - The SCFI (European route) on January 16, 2026, is 1676 dollars/TEU, a decrease of 2.50% compared to the previous period [2]. - In Week 4, the central price of European - route spot shipping is 2630 dollars, equivalent to 1840 points on the futures market. In Week 5, it drops to 2540 dollars, equivalent to 1780 points [4]. Relevant News - On January 19, the US invites 60 countries to join the Gaza Peace Committee, and Trump plans to charge over one billion dollars in membership fees for permanent seats on the committee [5]. - The EU is considering imposing tariffs on US goods worth 93 billion euros or restricting US companies from entering the EU market in response to Trump's decision to impose a 10% tariff on goods from eight European countries starting February 1, 2026, and increasing it to 25% from June 1 [5].
永安期货集运早报-20251027
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 05:34
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent market has been strong due to shipping companies' additional sailings cancellations and good cargo receipts on multiple routes at the end of October. The current valuation of the December contract is high, but due to multiple expected price increase nodes and the upward drive during the long - term contract signing season, the logic of going long on dips for the December contract remains unchanged. There may be short - term downward disturbances, and attention should be paid to possible price cuts by shipping companies in early November. Against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainties, the February contract may have more upside potential with the arrival of the peak season, but there are also geopolitical fluctuations. The April contract maintains the view of shorting on rallies, but it may follow the near - term contracts and fluctuate strongly during the peak season from November to January and can be gradually short - positioned [2][22]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Futures Contract Information - EC2510: Yesterday's closing price was 1137.8, up 0.15%, with a direct difference of 2.6, yesterday's trading volume was 817, yesterday's open interest was 4292, and open interest decreased by 526 [2][22]. - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1831.0, up 2.11%, with a direct difference of - 690.6, yesterday's trading volume was 35117, yesterday's open interest was 30249, and open interest increased by 1335 [2][22]. - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1601.0, up 1.20%, with a direct difference of - 460.6, yesterday's trading volume was 3971, yesterday's open interest was 11509, and open interest increased by 971 [2][22]. - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1179.6, up 0.67%, with a direct difference of - 39.2, yesterday's trading volume was 1726, yesterday's open interest was 14224, and open interest increased by 170 [2][22]. - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1397.9, up 1.68%, with a direct difference of - 257.5, yesterday's trading volume was 585, yesterday's open interest was 1377, and open interest decreased by 25 [2][22]. Month - to - Month Spread - EC2510 - 2512: The previous day's spread was - 693.2, the spread decreased by 36.2 compared to the previous day, and decreased by 111.3 compared to last Friday [2][22]. - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's spread was 230.0, the spread increased by 18.9 compared to the previous day, and increased by 70.0 compared to last Friday [2][22]. Spot Freight Index - SCFI (European Line): Updated weekly, as of October 24, 2025, it was 1246 US dollars/TEU, up 8.82% from the previous period and 7.21% from two periods ago [2][22]. - CCFI: Updated weekly, as of October 24, 2025, it was 1293.12, up 1.99% from the previous period and down 1.49% from two periods ago [2][22]. - NCFI: Updated weekly, as of October 24, 2025, it was 822.3, up 2.38% from the previous period and 14.96% from two periods ago [2][22]. Recent European Line Quotations - Currently, downstream customers are booking spaces for the end of October and early November (Week 44 - 45). In Week 44, the offline quotes were PA 1400, GEMINI 1600, and OA 1800 US dollars. Shipping companies plan to increase prices in November, mostly in the range of 2500 - 2700 US dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the futures market. On Tuesday, MSK opened bookings at 2350 US dollars, in line with expectations [3][23]. Relevant News - On October 27, US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that the US would no longer consider imposing a 100% tariff on China. On October 26, the China - US economic and trade teams concluded a two - day negotiation in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. This was the fifth face - to - face negotiation between the two teams since May this year [4][24]. - On October 27, the Israeli government spokesman said that Israel would maintain full security control over the Gaza Strip [4][24].
集运早报-20250918
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 01:38
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price is still falling, but the decline is expected to slow down in October. The MSK opened the cabin for week 40 with a quote of $1400, a weekly decline of -$150, and for week 41, it also quoted $1400, remaining flat. [2] - The futures market declined significantly on Wednesday, with the bottom further breaking through. However, the market rose in the late session due to the news of the flat quote for week 41 from MSK. The basis for October was -20 points, and the spread between October and December was -562 (-58). [2] - There are multiple upward drivers in the future. For the December contract, be cautious when going long, as its valuation is neutral, and trading should be based on drivers. Since the Spring Festival in 2026 is relatively late (February 17, 2026), the settlement price of the February 2026 contract may be higher, and in terms of valuation, the cost - effectiveness of long - allocating the February contract is higher than that of the December contract. To avoid the potential price - cutting risk of shipping companies in October, a positive spread arbitrage between the February and April 2026 contracts can be appropriately arranged. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices and changes of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 futures contracts are provided, along with their basis, trading volume, open interest, and open interest changes. For example, the closing price of EC2510 was 1109.7, with a decline of -5.13%. [2] - **Futures Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads between different contract months (such as EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602) and their changes compared to previous days and weeks are presented. For instance, the spread of EC2510 - 2512 was -562.3, a decrease compared to the previous days. [2] Spot Market - **Spot Price Indexes**: The SCHIS SCFI (European line), CCFI, and NCFI spot price indexes are reported, including their latest values, changes compared to previous periods, and publication dates. The SCHIS SCFI (European line) was 1440.24 on September 15, 2025, with a decline of -8.06% compared to the previous period. [2] - **Recent European Line Quotations**: The current situation is that downstream customers are booking cabin space for the end of September and early October (week 39 - 41). The average quotation for week 39 was $1600 (equivalent to 1150 points on the disk), and the quotations for week 40 and week 41 from different shipping companies are also provided. [3] Other Information - **Related News**: News such as military actions in the Gaza Strip, US sanctions on armed organizations, and Iran's stance on sanctions and nuclear issues are mentioned. [4] - **Index Publication Notes**: It is noted that the XSI - C index is delayed by three working days. [5]
集运早报-20250915
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 01:28
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the October contract, the downside space is limited, and it's recommended to take profit and close positions [1]. - The December contract has a relatively high valuation but has multiple upward drivers (such as shipping companies' multiple price - support measures and main funds' position transfer), so it should be treated with a cautiously bullish mindset [1]. - Since the Spring Festival in 2026 is late (February 17, 2026), the settlement price of the February 2026 contract may be high, and its current valuation is low. The cost - performance of long - allocation for the February contract is higher than that of the December contract. To avoid the potential price - cutting risk of shipping companies in October, a long - short spread strategy for the February - April contracts can be deployed [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Contract Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The EC2510 contract closed at 1157.6, down 3.84%; EC2512 at 1610.2, up 0.07%; EC2602 at 1500.8, up 0.23%; EC2604 at 1230.4, down 0.93%; EC2606 at 1410.5, down 1.41% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of EC2510 was 27358, and the open interest was 47611 with a decrease of 1896; for EC2512, the trading volume was 9853, and the open interest was 19637 with an increase of 612; for EC2602, the trading volume was 1680, and the open interest was 6327 with an increase of 326; for EC2604, the trading volume was 966, and the open interest was 7993 with an increase of 202; for EC2606, the trading volume was 155, and the open interest was 997 with an increase of 34 [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The EC2510 - 2512 spread was - 452.6, a daily decrease of 47.3 and a weekly decrease of 78.6; the EC2512 - 2602 spread was 109.4, a daily decrease of 2.3 and a weekly decrease of 37.0 [1]. Spot Market Data - **Shipping Company Quotes**: In Week 39, the average quote of shipping companies was 1640 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). The offline quote of YML decreased by 100 to 1550 US dollars, and that of MSC decreased by 150 to 1590 US dollars [1]. - **Index Changes**: The SCFI (European line) index was 1154 US dollars/TEU, down 12.24%; the CCFI index was 1537.28 points, down 6.19%; the NCFI index was 729.42 points, down 14.78% [1]. Recent European Line Quotation Situation - Currently, downstream customers are booking space for mid - September (Week 37 - 38) [2]. - Week 37: The average quote was 2100 US dollars (equivalent to 1450 points on the futures market), with MSK quoting 1900 US dollars (later rising to 1950), PA at 2100 - 2150, and OA at 2100 - 2300 [3]. - Week 38: The average quote was 1800 US dollars (equivalent to 1260 points on the futures market), with MSK quoting 1700 US dollars (later rising to 1760), PA and MSC at 1800 - 1950, and OA at 1650 - 2020 [3]. - Week 39: The average quote was 1640 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market), with MSK quoting 1500 US dollars (later rising to 1560), PA Alliance at 1550 - 1600 US dollars, and OA Alliance at 1540 - 1735 US dollars [3].
永安期货集运早报-20250902
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 07:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the first half of September (week36 - 37). The average quote for week36 is $2,270 (equivalent to 1,600 points on the futures market), and for week37 it's $2,125 (1,450 points). There are price adjustments among different shipping alliances. The overall situation in September has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the downward trend will continue for at least two more weeks. The decline in October depends on shipping companies' suspension of voyages. The price of the October contract is close to the annual low (1,250 - 1,300), with limited downside. The December contract may decline in the short - term but presents opportunities to go long at low prices as it is in the peak season and long - term contract negotiation period [2][16] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - EC2510: Yesterday's closing price was 1,291.4, up 2.41%, with a benchmark of 482.2, a trading volume of 29,155, an open interest of 52,271, and a decrease of 989 in open interest [2][16] - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1,640.9, up 5.00%, with a benchmark of 132.7, a trading volume of 11,198, an open interest of 16,495, and a decrease of 828 in open interest [2][16] - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1,461.3, up 3.78%, with a benchmark of 312.3, a trading volume of 1,540, an open interest of 4,846, and a change of 1 - 7 in open interest [2][16] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1,241.8, up 3.11%, with a benchmark of 531.8, a trading volume of 1,721, an open interest of 7,069, and a decrease of 67 in open interest [2][16] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1,428.5, up 3.81%, with a benchmark of 345.1, a trading volume of 174, an open interest of 890, and an increase of 23 in open interest [2][16] Month - to - Month Spread - EC2510 - 2512: The previous day's spread was - 349.5, with a daily decrease of 47.8 and a weekly decrease of 24.5 [2][16] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's spread was 179.6, with a daily increase of 25.0 and a weekly increase of 5.0 [2][16] Spot Indexes - SCFI (European route): As of September 1, 2025, it was 1,773.6, down 10.88% from the previous period and 8.71% from the same period last year [2][16] - CCFI: As of August 29, 2025, it was 1,685.8, down 4.09% from the previous period and 1.83% from the same period last year [2][16] - NCFI: As of August 29, 2025, it was 929.56, down 14.25% from the previous period and 8.83% from the same period last year [2][16] Recent European Route Quotations - Week36: The latest quotes from shipping companies range from $2,120 - 2,420, with an average of $2,250 (1,550 points). PA Alliance quotes are between $2,200 - 2,300, MSK was initially $2,100 and then rose to $2,200, and OA Alliance quotes are between $2,300 - 2,400 [3][17] - Week37: The latest average quote is $2,100 (1,450 points). MSK's quote was initially $1,900 and then rose to $1,950, PA Alliance quotes are between $2,100 - 2,150, and OA Alliance quotes are between $2,100 - 2,300 [3][17] Fundamental Information - The weekly average shipping capacity in September and October is 296,000 and 309,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended voyages, it becomes 296,000 and 281,000 TEU [2][16] News - On September 1, US media reported that the US plans to rebuild Gaza and control the region for at least 10 years [4][18] - On September 1, the Houthi armed forces claimed to have attacked an oil tanker in the northern Red Sea. The Israeli military launched an air strike on Sana'a on August 28, and on August 31, Houthi leader Abdul - Malik al - Houthi said they would launch retaliation and escalate military attacks and shipping blockades against Israel [4][18]
集运早报-20250815
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 09:03
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current main contradictions in the EC market are the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment. It is recommended to continue holding short positions on the October contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Contents Futures Contract Information - For the EC2508 contract, the previous closing price was 2083.9, with a change of 0.04%, a basis of 151.6, a previous trading volume of 92, and a previous open interest of 2556 with a change of - 73. Other contracts like EC2510, EC2512, etc. also have their respective price, change, basis, trading volume, and open interest data [2] - The month - to - month spreads such as EC2508 - 2510, EC2510 - 2512, etc. have their previous - day, two - day - ago, and day - on - day change data [2] Index Information - The SCHIS SCFI (European line) was updated on August 11, 2025, at 2235.48 points, down 2.71% from the previous period and 4.39% from two periods ago. The CCFI was updated on August 8, 2025, at 1799.05 points, up 0.53% from the previous period. The NCFI was updated on August 8, 2025, at 1257.71 points, down 8.7% from the previous period [2] Shipping Company Quotation Information - In week 34, shipping companies' prices dropped by 200 - 300 US dollars, with an average of 2850 US dollars (2000 points). In week 35, the average shipping company quote was 2630 US dollars (1800 points) [3] - On Monday, MSK opened at 2200 US dollars; HPL dropped 400 to 2435 US dollars. On Wednesday, EMC dropped 200 to 2934 US dollars [9] News Information - On August 14, Hamas proposed a cease - fire request to Egypt, promising to evacuate and ensure the safety of the detained personnel. Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Haskell said that after the war, Gaza must have a non - Israeli, peaceful and non - armed government [4]
集运早报-20250811
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 05:29
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current main contradictions in the EC market are the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment. It is recommended to hold short positions on the October contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [2]. Group 3: EC Futures Contract Information - EC2508 closed at 2071.0 with a - 0.08% change, volume of 273, and an open interest of 3432 with a change of - 147; EC2510 closed at 1436.0 with a 1.10% change, volume of 56447, and an open interest of 56602 with a change of 3006; EC2512 closed at 1760.0 with a - 0.18% change, volume of 6068, and an open interest of 10276 with a change of 516; EC2602 closed at 1530.4 with a 1.66% change, volume of 1105, and an open interest of 4135 with a change of - 44; EC2604 closed at 1353.0 with a 0.46% change, volume of 1290, and an open interest of 5403 with a change of 34; EC2606 closed at 1490.5 with a 0.17% change, volume of 142, and an open interest of 800 with a change of - 8 [2]. - The month - spread of EC2508 - 2510 was - 17.3 compared to the previous day and - 65.5 compared to the previous week; EC2510 - 2512 was 18.8 compared to the previous day and - 68.6 compared to the previous week; EC2512 - 2602 was - 28.2 compared to the previous day and 22.6 compared to the previous week [2]. Group 4: Spot Freight Index Information - The SCFI (European Line) on August 4th was 2297.86 dollars/TEU with a - 0.81% change from the previous period and - 3.50% from the period before; on August 8th, it was 1961 dollars/TEU with a - 4.39% change from the previous period and - 1.87% from the period before [2]. - The CCFI on August 8th was 1799.05 with a 0.53% change from the previous period [2]. - The NCFI on August 8th was 1257.71 with an - 8.37% change from the previous period [2]. Group 5: Recent European Line Quotation - Currently, downstream customers are booking space for mid - August (week33 - 34). The average quote in week33 was about 3150 dollars (equivalent to about 2200 points on the futures). In week34, shipping companies' quotes dropped by 200 - 300 dollars, with an average of 2850 dollars (2000 points). The PA Alliance quoted 2700 dollars, MSK 2600 dollars, and the OA Alliance 2900 - 3000 dollars [3]. Group 6: Shipping Capacity Information - In week33 of August, the cargo collection of each alliance varied, with MSK performing well, OA average, and PA poor. In week34, cargo collection significantly weakened. EMC cancelled its independent operation ship in week35, and OA added a suspension in week39. The shipping capacity decreased slightly but remained high. The average weekly shipping capacity in August, September (tentative), and October (tentative) 2025 is 327,000, 321,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively, and 327,000, 300,000, and 287,000 TEU after considering all TBN as suspensions [2]. Group 7: Related News - On August 8th, the Israeli security cabinet approved the IDF to take over Gaza City and agreed to the "five principles" for a cease - fire. On August 9th, sources said that Qatar and the US were formulating a comprehensive cease - fire agreement for the Gaza Strip [4].
集运早报-20250728
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 07:48
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Under high - capacity pressure and with demand entering the off - season, the freight rates will face downward pressure in the future [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content EC Futures Contracts and Spreads - The closing prices of EC futures contracts such as EC2508, EC2510, etc., showed different degrees of decline or increase on July 28, 2025. For example, EC2508 closed at 2212.6 with a - 1.44% decline [2] - The month - to - month spreads like EC2508 - 2510, EC2510 - 2512 also had changes compared to previous days and weeks [2] Shipping Freight Indexes - The SCFI (European Line) updated on July 25, 2025, was 2090 dollars/TEU, with a 0.53% increase compared to the previous period [2] - Other indexes like CCFI, NCFI, and TCI also had their respective data and changes [2] European Line Supply and Demand - In August and September (temporarily), the average weekly capacity is 325,000 and 324,000 TEU respectively. The capacity in weeks 32, 33, 34, and 35 is 330,000, 305,000, 350,000, and 316,000 TEU respectively, with high capacity pressure especially in the second half of August [2] - There is a transfer of shipping schedules from the US line to the European line. With the support of the shipping companies' base cargo volume, the shipping companies' stowage rate in late July was not under great pressure, but the cargo volume in early August is gradually weakening [2] European Line Quotations - In July, the European line quotations remained stable at around 2400 points [3] - In August, the PA Alliance's quotations dropped by 200 - 300 to 3100 dollars, MSK's quotations decreased slightly at first and then increased slightly, and OA mainly maintained at 3400 - 3500 dollars (considering a decline). The quotation in week 31 was about 3300 dollars (equivalent to 2300 points on the futures market) [13] Relevant News - On July 27, 2025, US President Trump announced that the US and the EU had reached a trade agreement, including a 15% tariff on EU goods exported to the US, a 600 - billion - dollar increase in EU investment in the US, and the EU's purchase of US military equipment and 750 - billion - dollar energy products [4] - The Yemen Houthi rebels stated that they would attack any ships belonging to companies with business at Israeli ports [4] - The cease - fire negotiation between Israel and Hamas in Gaza was deadlocked. Israel was considering measures to pressure Hamas, while Hamas officials said they were ready to complete the negotiation and that Israel's negative statements were an attempt to avoid the negotiation results [5]
集运早报-20250716
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 01:55
Report Overview - No report industry investment rating is provided [1] - The core view is to present the latest data and trends of European line shipping, including EC futures contract prices, spot prices, freight indices, and capacity arrangements, as well as recent news and downstream booking information [1][2][3] EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 closed at 2126.0 with a 4.87% increase, trading volume of 30362, and a decrease of 6336 in open interest [1] - EC2510 closed at 1655.6 with a 14.92% increase, trading volume of 107782, and an increase of 13685 in open interest [1] - EC2512 closed at 1836.0 with a 16.17% increase, trading volume of 13026, and an increase of 1056 in open interest [1] - EC2602 closed at 1516.4 with a 9.40% increase, trading volume of 2983, and a decrease of 140 in open interest [1] - EC2604 closed at 1319.0 with an 8.24% increase, trading volume of 4507, and a decrease of 300 in open interest [1] - EC2606 closed at 1456.8 with a 5.40% increase, trading volume of 475, and an increase of 66 in open interest [1] - The spread between EC2508 and EC2510 was 470.4, a decrease of 116.1 compared to the previous day [1] - The spread between EC2510 and EC2512 was -180.4, a decrease of 40.6 compared to the previous day [1] - The spread between EC2512 and EC2602 was 319.6, an increase of 125.2 compared to the previous day [1] Spot Prices and Freight Indices - The spot price on July 14 was 2421.94 yuan, a 7.26% increase from the previous period [1] - The SCFI on July 11 was 2099 dollars/TEU, a 0.10% decrease from the previous period [1] - The CCFI on July 11 was 1726.41 points, a 1.90% increase from the previous period [1] - The NCFI on July 11 was 1435.21 yuan, a 0.50% decrease from the previous period [1] - The TCI on July 11 was 1019.55 yuan, unchanged from the previous period [1] Capacity Arrangements - The average weekly capacity in July and August 2025 is 295,000 and 322,300 TEU respectively [1] - According to market rumors, the average weekly capacity in August will be reduced to 310,000 TEU, with capacities of 311,000, 314,000, 310,000, and 294,000 TEU from week 31 to 35, and the overall pressure remains high [1] Recent European Line Quotations - Downstream customers are booking space for the second half of July (week 29 - 30) [2] - Shipping company quotes in the second half of July are mainly stable, with week 29 at around 3400 dollars [2] - Shipping companies slightly reduced quotes for the last week of July (week 30), with HPL, CMA, OOCL, and MSC reducing by about 200 dollars, and the average at 3300 dollars (equivalent to 2300 points) [2] - MSK quoted flat for week 31 at 2900 - 3000 dollars [3] Related News - On July 15, Israel submitted a third version of the Israeli army's withdrawal plan from Gaza to the mediators [3] - On July 16, the Yemeni Houthi armed forces launched "synchronized attacks" on two Israeli targets [3] - On July 16, the Israeli army issued an evacuation order to a northern Gaza town, stating that the battle was advancing towards the city center [3]