集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/9/18 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导致 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持命量 | 持合变动 | | 期货 | EC2510 | | 1109.7 | -5.13 | 330.5 | 43546 | | 49609 | 2092 | | | EC2512 | | 1672.0 | -0.11 | -231.8 | 16859 | | 20437 | 678 | | | EC2602 | | 1578.8 | 0.43 | -138.6 | 3152 | | 7105 | 386 | | | EC2604 | | 1285.0 | 0.10 | 155.2 | 1492 | | 8334 | 101 | | | EC2606 | | 1468.7 | -0.20 | -28.5 | | 121 | 924 | -33 | | | 月差 | | 前一日 | 前两日 | 前三日 | 目标 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the October contract, the downside space is limited, and it's recommended to take profit and close positions [1]. - The December contract has a relatively high valuation but has multiple upward drivers (such as shipping companies' multiple price - support measures and main funds' position transfer), so it should be treated with a cautiously bullish mindset [1]. - Since the Spring Festival in 2026 is late (February 17, 2026), the settlement price of the February 2026 contract may be high, and its current valuation is low. The cost - performance of long - allocation for the February contract is higher than that of the December contract. To avoid the potential price - cutting risk of shipping companies in October, a long - short spread strategy for the February - April contracts can be deployed [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Contract Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The EC2510 contract closed at 1157.6, down 3.84%; EC2512 at 1610.2, up 0.07%; EC2602 at 1500.8, up 0.23%; EC2604 at 1230.4, down 0.93%; EC2606 at 1410.5, down 1.41% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of EC2510 was 27358, and the open interest was 47611 with a decrease of 1896; for EC2512, the trading volume was 9853, and the open interest was 19637 with an increase of 612; for EC2602, the trading volume was 1680, and the open interest was 6327 with an increase of 326; for EC2604, the trading volume was 966, and the open interest was 7993 with an increase of 202; for EC2606, the trading volume was 155, and the open interest was 997 with an increase of 34 [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The EC2510 - 2512 spread was - 452.6, a daily decrease of 47.3 and a weekly decrease of 78.6; the EC2512 - 2602 spread was 109.4, a daily decrease of 2.3 and a weekly decrease of 37.0 [1]. Spot Market Data - **Shipping Company Quotes**: In Week 39, the average quote of shipping companies was 1640 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). The offline quote of YML decreased by 100 to 1550 US dollars, and that of MSC decreased by 150 to 1590 US dollars [1]. - **Index Changes**: The SCFI (European line) index was 1154 US dollars/TEU, down 12.24%; the CCFI index was 1537.28 points, down 6.19%; the NCFI index was 729.42 points, down 14.78% [1]. Recent European Line Quotation Situation - Currently, downstream customers are booking space for mid - September (Week 37 - 38) [2]. - Week 37: The average quote was 2100 US dollars (equivalent to 1450 points on the futures market), with MSK quoting 1900 US dollars (later rising to 1950), PA at 2100 - 2150, and OA at 2100 - 2300 [3]. - Week 38: The average quote was 1800 US dollars (equivalent to 1260 points on the futures market), with MSK quoting 1700 US dollars (later rising to 1760), PA and MSC at 1800 - 1950, and OA at 1650 - 2020 [3]. - Week 39: The average quote was 1640 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market), with MSK quoting 1500 US dollars (later rising to 1560), PA Alliance at 1550 - 1600 US dollars, and OA Alliance at 1540 - 1735 US dollars [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the first half of September (week36 - 37). The average quote for week36 is $2,270 (equivalent to 1,600 points on the futures market), and for week37 it's $2,125 (1,450 points). There are price adjustments among different shipping alliances. The overall situation in September has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the downward trend will continue for at least two more weeks. The decline in October depends on shipping companies' suspension of voyages. The price of the October contract is close to the annual low (1,250 - 1,300), with limited downside. The December contract may decline in the short - term but presents opportunities to go long at low prices as it is in the peak season and long - term contract negotiation period [2][16] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - EC2510: Yesterday's closing price was 1,291.4, up 2.41%, with a benchmark of 482.2, a trading volume of 29,155, an open interest of 52,271, and a decrease of 989 in open interest [2][16] - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1,640.9, up 5.00%, with a benchmark of 132.7, a trading volume of 11,198, an open interest of 16,495, and a decrease of 828 in open interest [2][16] - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1,461.3, up 3.78%, with a benchmark of 312.3, a trading volume of 1,540, an open interest of 4,846, and a change of 1 - 7 in open interest [2][16] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1,241.8, up 3.11%, with a benchmark of 531.8, a trading volume of 1,721, an open interest of 7,069, and a decrease of 67 in open interest [2][16] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1,428.5, up 3.81%, with a benchmark of 345.1, a trading volume of 174, an open interest of 890, and an increase of 23 in open interest [2][16] Month - to - Month Spread - EC2510 - 2512: The previous day's spread was - 349.5, with a daily decrease of 47.8 and a weekly decrease of 24.5 [2][16] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's spread was 179.6, with a daily increase of 25.0 and a weekly increase of 5.0 [2][16] Spot Indexes - SCFI (European route): As of September 1, 2025, it was 1,773.6, down 10.88% from the previous period and 8.71% from the same period last year [2][16] - CCFI: As of August 29, 2025, it was 1,685.8, down 4.09% from the previous period and 1.83% from the same period last year [2][16] - NCFI: As of August 29, 2025, it was 929.56, down 14.25% from the previous period and 8.83% from the same period last year [2][16] Recent European Route Quotations - Week36: The latest quotes from shipping companies range from $2,120 - 2,420, with an average of $2,250 (1,550 points). PA Alliance quotes are between $2,200 - 2,300, MSK was initially $2,100 and then rose to $2,200, and OA Alliance quotes are between $2,300 - 2,400 [3][17] - Week37: The latest average quote is $2,100 (1,450 points). MSK's quote was initially $1,900 and then rose to $1,950, PA Alliance quotes are between $2,100 - 2,150, and OA Alliance quotes are between $2,100 - 2,300 [3][17] Fundamental Information - The weekly average shipping capacity in September and October is 296,000 and 309,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended voyages, it becomes 296,000 and 281,000 TEU [2][16] News - On September 1, US media reported that the US plans to rebuild Gaza and control the region for at least 10 years [4][18] - On September 1, the Houthi armed forces claimed to have attacked an oil tanker in the northern Red Sea. The Israeli military launched an air strike on Sana'a on August 28, and on August 31, Houthi leader Abdul - Malik al - Houthi said they would launch retaliation and escalate military attacks and shipping blockades against Israel [4][18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current main contradictions in the EC market are the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment. It is recommended to continue holding short positions on the October contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Contents Futures Contract Information - For the EC2508 contract, the previous closing price was 2083.9, with a change of 0.04%, a basis of 151.6, a previous trading volume of 92, and a previous open interest of 2556 with a change of - 73. Other contracts like EC2510, EC2512, etc. also have their respective price, change, basis, trading volume, and open interest data [2] - The month - to - month spreads such as EC2508 - 2510, EC2510 - 2512, etc. have their previous - day, two - day - ago, and day - on - day change data [2] Index Information - The SCHIS SCFI (European line) was updated on August 11, 2025, at 2235.48 points, down 2.71% from the previous period and 4.39% from two periods ago. The CCFI was updated on August 8, 2025, at 1799.05 points, up 0.53% from the previous period. The NCFI was updated on August 8, 2025, at 1257.71 points, down 8.7% from the previous period [2] Shipping Company Quotation Information - In week 34, shipping companies' prices dropped by 200 - 300 US dollars, with an average of 2850 US dollars (2000 points). In week 35, the average shipping company quote was 2630 US dollars (1800 points) [3] - On Monday, MSK opened at 2200 US dollars; HPL dropped 400 to 2435 US dollars. On Wednesday, EMC dropped 200 to 2934 US dollars [9] News Information - On August 14, Hamas proposed a cease - fire request to Egypt, promising to evacuate and ensure the safety of the detained personnel. Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Haskell said that after the war, Gaza must have a non - Israeli, peaceful and non - armed government [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current main contradictions in the EC market are the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment. It is recommended to hold short positions on the October contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [2]. Group 3: EC Futures Contract Information - EC2508 closed at 2071.0 with a - 0.08% change, volume of 273, and an open interest of 3432 with a change of - 147; EC2510 closed at 1436.0 with a 1.10% change, volume of 56447, and an open interest of 56602 with a change of 3006; EC2512 closed at 1760.0 with a - 0.18% change, volume of 6068, and an open interest of 10276 with a change of 516; EC2602 closed at 1530.4 with a 1.66% change, volume of 1105, and an open interest of 4135 with a change of - 44; EC2604 closed at 1353.0 with a 0.46% change, volume of 1290, and an open interest of 5403 with a change of 34; EC2606 closed at 1490.5 with a 0.17% change, volume of 142, and an open interest of 800 with a change of - 8 [2]. - The month - spread of EC2508 - 2510 was - 17.3 compared to the previous day and - 65.5 compared to the previous week; EC2510 - 2512 was 18.8 compared to the previous day and - 68.6 compared to the previous week; EC2512 - 2602 was - 28.2 compared to the previous day and 22.6 compared to the previous week [2]. Group 4: Spot Freight Index Information - The SCFI (European Line) on August 4th was 2297.86 dollars/TEU with a - 0.81% change from the previous period and - 3.50% from the period before; on August 8th, it was 1961 dollars/TEU with a - 4.39% change from the previous period and - 1.87% from the period before [2]. - The CCFI on August 8th was 1799.05 with a 0.53% change from the previous period [2]. - The NCFI on August 8th was 1257.71 with an - 8.37% change from the previous period [2]. Group 5: Recent European Line Quotation - Currently, downstream customers are booking space for mid - August (week33 - 34). The average quote in week33 was about 3150 dollars (equivalent to about 2200 points on the futures). In week34, shipping companies' quotes dropped by 200 - 300 dollars, with an average of 2850 dollars (2000 points). The PA Alliance quoted 2700 dollars, MSK 2600 dollars, and the OA Alliance 2900 - 3000 dollars [3]. Group 6: Shipping Capacity Information - In week33 of August, the cargo collection of each alliance varied, with MSK performing well, OA average, and PA poor. In week34, cargo collection significantly weakened. EMC cancelled its independent operation ship in week35, and OA added a suspension in week39. The shipping capacity decreased slightly but remained high. The average weekly shipping capacity in August, September (tentative), and October (tentative) 2025 is 327,000, 321,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively, and 327,000, 300,000, and 287,000 TEU after considering all TBN as suspensions [2]. Group 7: Related News - On August 8th, the Israeli security cabinet approved the IDF to take over Gaza City and agreed to the "five principles" for a cease - fire. On August 9th, sources said that Qatar and the US were formulating a comprehensive cease - fire agreement for the Gaza Strip [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Under high - capacity pressure and with demand entering the off - season, the freight rates will face downward pressure in the future [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content EC Futures Contracts and Spreads - The closing prices of EC futures contracts such as EC2508, EC2510, etc., showed different degrees of decline or increase on July 28, 2025. For example, EC2508 closed at 2212.6 with a - 1.44% decline [2] - The month - to - month spreads like EC2508 - 2510, EC2510 - 2512 also had changes compared to previous days and weeks [2] Shipping Freight Indexes - The SCFI (European Line) updated on July 25, 2025, was 2090 dollars/TEU, with a 0.53% increase compared to the previous period [2] - Other indexes like CCFI, NCFI, and TCI also had their respective data and changes [2] European Line Supply and Demand - In August and September (temporarily), the average weekly capacity is 325,000 and 324,000 TEU respectively. The capacity in weeks 32, 33, 34, and 35 is 330,000, 305,000, 350,000, and 316,000 TEU respectively, with high capacity pressure especially in the second half of August [2] - There is a transfer of shipping schedules from the US line to the European line. With the support of the shipping companies' base cargo volume, the shipping companies' stowage rate in late July was not under great pressure, but the cargo volume in early August is gradually weakening [2] European Line Quotations - In July, the European line quotations remained stable at around 2400 points [3] - In August, the PA Alliance's quotations dropped by 200 - 300 to 3100 dollars, MSK's quotations decreased slightly at first and then increased slightly, and OA mainly maintained at 3400 - 3500 dollars (considering a decline). The quotation in week 31 was about 3300 dollars (equivalent to 2300 points on the futures market) [13] Relevant News - On July 27, 2025, US President Trump announced that the US and the EU had reached a trade agreement, including a 15% tariff on EU goods exported to the US, a 600 - billion - dollar increase in EU investment in the US, and the EU's purchase of US military equipment and 750 - billion - dollar energy products [4] - The Yemen Houthi rebels stated that they would attack any ships belonging to companies with business at Israeli ports [4] - The cease - fire negotiation between Israel and Hamas in Gaza was deadlocked. Israel was considering measures to pressure Hamas, while Hamas officials said they were ready to complete the negotiation and that Israel's negative statements were an attempt to avoid the negotiation results [5]

Report Overview - No report industry investment rating is provided [1] - The core view is to present the latest data and trends of European line shipping, including EC futures contract prices, spot prices, freight indices, and capacity arrangements, as well as recent news and downstream booking information [1][2][3] EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 closed at 2126.0 with a 4.87% increase, trading volume of 30362, and a decrease of 6336 in open interest [1] - EC2510 closed at 1655.6 with a 14.92% increase, trading volume of 107782, and an increase of 13685 in open interest [1] - EC2512 closed at 1836.0 with a 16.17% increase, trading volume of 13026, and an increase of 1056 in open interest [1] - EC2602 closed at 1516.4 with a 9.40% increase, trading volume of 2983, and a decrease of 140 in open interest [1] - EC2604 closed at 1319.0 with an 8.24% increase, trading volume of 4507, and a decrease of 300 in open interest [1] - EC2606 closed at 1456.8 with a 5.40% increase, trading volume of 475, and an increase of 66 in open interest [1] - The spread between EC2508 and EC2510 was 470.4, a decrease of 116.1 compared to the previous day [1] - The spread between EC2510 and EC2512 was -180.4, a decrease of 40.6 compared to the previous day [1] - The spread between EC2512 and EC2602 was 319.6, an increase of 125.2 compared to the previous day [1] Spot Prices and Freight Indices - The spot price on July 14 was 2421.94 yuan, a 7.26% increase from the previous period [1] - The SCFI on July 11 was 2099 dollars/TEU, a 0.10% decrease from the previous period [1] - The CCFI on July 11 was 1726.41 points, a 1.90% increase from the previous period [1] - The NCFI on July 11 was 1435.21 yuan, a 0.50% decrease from the previous period [1] - The TCI on July 11 was 1019.55 yuan, unchanged from the previous period [1] Capacity Arrangements - The average weekly capacity in July and August 2025 is 295,000 and 322,300 TEU respectively [1] - According to market rumors, the average weekly capacity in August will be reduced to 310,000 TEU, with capacities of 311,000, 314,000, 310,000, and 294,000 TEU from week 31 to 35, and the overall pressure remains high [1] Recent European Line Quotations - Downstream customers are booking space for the second half of July (week 29 - 30) [2] - Shipping company quotes in the second half of July are mainly stable, with week 29 at around 3400 dollars [2] - Shipping companies slightly reduced quotes for the last week of July (week 30), with HPL, CMA, OOCL, and MSC reducing by about 200 dollars, and the average at 3300 dollars (equivalent to 2300 points) [2] - MSK quoted flat for week 31 at 2900 - 3000 dollars [3] Related News - On July 15, Israel submitted a third version of the Israeli army's withdrawal plan from Gaza to the mediators [3] - On July 16, the Yemeni Houthi armed forces launched "synchronized attacks" on two Israeli targets [3] - On July 16, the Israeli army issued an evacuation order to a northern Gaza town, stating that the battle was advancing towards the city center [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The shipping capacity in July and August 2025 is expected to put significant downward pressure on subsequent freight rates, as the shipping volume is gradually entering a downward period while the shipping capacity in the first week of August is as high as 340,000 TEU [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Price and Spread - EC2508 had a previous settlement price of 2006.2, a change of 6.23%, a basis of 251.8, a previous trading volume of 57,664, a previous open interest of 35,057, and an open interest change of 536. Other contracts (EC2510 - EC2606) also have their respective price, spread, volume, and open - interest data [1]. - The month - to - month spreads such as EC2508 - 2510, EC2510 - 2512, and EC2512 - 2602 showed different changes compared to the previous days and weeks [1]. 3.2 Spot Freight Rate Index - The Terdar index on July 7, 2025, was 2258.04 yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 6.35%. SCFI (European Line) on July 4, 2025, was 2101 dollars/TEU, up 3.50%. CCFI was 1694.3, up 3.27%. NCFI was 1442.46 points, down 0.03%. TCI on July 8, 2025, remained unchanged at 1019.55 points [1]. 3.3 Shipping Capacity Arrangement - The average weekly shipping capacity in July and August 2025 is 295,000 and 313,000 TEU respectively. The second week of July had neutral cargo intake with no over - booking. The third - week capacity was 320,000 TEU, the fourth - week capacity was 290,000 TEU, and the first - week capacity in August was 340,000 TEU [1]. 3.4 Recent European Line Quotations - Downstream customers are currently booking spaces for mid - July (week 28 - 29). The freight rate in early July (week 27 - 28) was around 3380 US dollars (equivalent to 2350 points). In late July, shipping company quotations were generally stable, with MSK offering a flat rate of 2950 US dollars. The current quotation range is 2950 - 3850 US dollars, with an average of 3500 US dollars (equivalent to 2500 points) [2].

Group 1: EC Futures Contract Information - EC2506 had a closing price of 1932.0 with a -0.85% change, a basis of -679.2, a trading volume of 1319, and an open interest of 7268 with a change of -135 [2] - EC2508 had a closing price of 2042.1 with a -1.14% change, a basis of -789.3, a trading volume of 59708, and an open interest of 45494 with a change of 1367 [2] - EC2510 had a closing price of 1351.9 with a 0.61% change, a basis of -99.1, a trading volume of 9827, and an open interest of 24183 with a change of -61 [2] - EC2512 had a closing price of 1545.6 with a 1.64% change, a basis of -292.8, a trading volume of 1457, and an open interest of 4637 with a change of -190 [2] - EC2602 had a closing price of 1394.5 with a 1.31% change, a basis of -141.7, a trading volume of 326, and an open interest of 2820 with a change of 34 [2] - EC2604 had a closing price of 1228.2 with a 0.22% change, a basis of 24.6, a trading volume of 411, and an open interest of 3405 with a change of 49 [2] Group 2: Month - to - Month Spread Information - The spread of EC2506 - 2508 was -125.7, with a month - on - month change of 6.9 and a week - on - week change of 65.1 [2] - The spread of EC2508 - 2510 was 732.5, with a month - on - month change of -31.7 and a week - on - week change of -100.1 [2] - The spread of EC2506 - 2510 was 606.8, with a month - on - month change of -24.8 [2] - The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was -174.2, with a month - on - month change of -16.7 and a week - on - week change of -7.7 [2] - The spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 133.8, with a month - on - month change of 6.9 and a week - on - week change of -13.9 [2] Group 3: Index Information - The SCHIS index on 2025/6/2 was 1252.82, with a 0.46% change from the previous period and a -1.44% change in the last period [2] - The SCFI (European Line) on 2025/6/6 was 1667 $/TEU, with a 5.04% change from the previous period and a 20.50% change in the last period [2] - The CCFI (European Line) on 2025/6/6 was 1397.02 points, with a 1.56% change from the previous period and a -1.22% change in the last period [2] - The NCFI on 2025/6/6 was 1123.64 points, with a 5.25% change from the previous period and a 36.25% change in the last period [2] - The TCI on 2025/6/6 was 839.4, with a 0.00% change from the previous period and a 9.10% change in the last period [2] Group 4: Shipping Capacity and Pricing Information - The average weekly shipping capacity in June and July (tentatively) 2025 was 29.7 and 31.4 million TEU respectively. In the second half of June, the capacity in week 24 and 25 was 30 and 28.5 million TEU respectively [2] - The average price in the second week of June was about 1800 points. The current lowest price in the second half of June was 2800 US dollars from MSK, and the average price was 2950 US dollars. Week 24 was equivalent to about 2050 points on the futures market [3] Group 5: News Information - On 6/11, the US Court of Appeals ruled that Trump's tariff measures may continue to be in effect during the appeal process, and the debate on Trump's tariffs will be heard on July 31 [4] - On 6/11, during the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism, both sides had professional, rational, in - depth, and candid communication [4] - On 6/11, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that hostage negotiations had made "significant progress" [4] - On 6/11, the US Ambassador to Israel said that the US no longer "fully" supported the establishment of a Palestinian state [4] - The XSI - C index was delayed by three working days [4]