专家预测：止跌在即，但分化已成定局 近期数据显示，2025年7月，一线城市的新房环比虽仍有下降，但降幅明显收窄。例如上海环比上涨 0.3%，而北京新房价格环比已持平，止跌迹象明显。 据说，北京五环外刚松绑限购一周，某项目看房量暴涨35%，成交直接翻倍。政策实施仅20天（8月9日 至8月29日），市场反馈积极，五环外楼盘访客和成交量明显回暖。 业内预计8-9月五环外成交量环比增长25%-40%，全年楼市"小阳春"延续。若政策进一步松绑（如五环 内），成交或破10万套/季度。 根据国家统计局最新数据，2025年7月全国70城新房价格环比下降0.4%，二手房价格环比下降0.5%。一 线城市新房价格环比仅跌 0.2%，比前几个月收窄，说明"探底信号"初现，成交量在部分一线城市出现 回升。 可以看到，一线城市的下跌幅度已经明显收窄，而二三线依旧承压，这和机构预测的"北上广深先行企 稳，强二线要再熬1-2年"基本一致。 这几天，我的朋友圈被中介们刷屏了："新房特价、送装修、送物业费，甚至送车位！""二手房直降 50%，手慢无！"看到这种信息，心里是不是咯噔一下？ 不买吧，怕错过抄底的机会；买吧，又怕被套在山顶上，几年解不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the discrepancy between the predicted decline in housing prices and the actual market behavior, highlighting that many developers are not lowering prices as expected despite reports of a significant drop in average housing prices across various cities [1][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Reports indicate that the national average housing price has decreased from 11,000 yuan per square meter to 9,500 yuan per square meter, a decline of over 15% [1]. - Major cities like Zhengzhou, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Jinan, Wuhan, and Taiyuan have seen housing prices revert to levels from three to five years ago [1]. Group 2: Sales Strategies - Sales personnel in real estate often quote higher prices to create a perception of demand, leveraging the "buy high, not low" psychology of buyers, which discourages them from reducing prices [3]. - Developers are reluctant to lower prices due to potential backlash from existing homeowners who may demand compensation or refunds, impacting the sales office's operations [3]. Group 3: Pricing Discrepancies - The prices advertised by sales offices are typically higher than the actual transaction prices, as buyers usually negotiate lower final prices [5]. - Media and authoritative data often reflect actual transaction prices rather than initial quotes, leading to a discrepancy in perceived market conditions [5]. Group 4: Data Interpretation - The data available online primarily covers both new and second-hand housing prices, with second-hand prices providing a more accurate reflection of market fluctuations [5]. - New housing prices are influenced by policies such as price limits, making them less representative of the overall real estate market conditions [5].