Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline in manufacturing PMI and highlights the positive signals in factory prices, indicating potential recovery in the midstream sector due to improved supply-demand dynamics and resilient overseas exports [2][3][4]. Group 1: PMI Data - The manufacturing PMI for January is reported at 49.3%, down from 50.1% in the previous month. Key sub-indices include: - Production index at 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points from 51.7% - New orders index at 49.2%, down from 50.8% - New export orders index at 47.8%, down from 49.0% - Employment index at 48.1%, slightly down from 48.2% - Supplier delivery time index at 50.1%, down from 50.2% - Raw material inventory index at 47.4%, down from 47.8% [2][17][18]. Group 2: Price Indicators - Positive signals in price indicators are noted, including: - The PMI factory price index at 50.6%, marking the first rise above the critical point in nearly 20 months. Industries such as non-ferrous metal smelting and electrical machinery show significant increases in both raw material purchase prices and factory prices, exceeding 55.0% [5][14]. - The BCI consumer price expectations index surged to 51.5%, the first rise above the critical point in 28 months, while the profit expectations index reached 52.66%, the first rise above the critical point in 11 months [5][14]. - Micro-level price increases are observed in various sectors, including semiconductors, photovoltaic, and home appliances, with notable price hikes reported by companies like Zhongwei Semiconductor and Midea [6][15]. Group 3: Supply-Demand Dynamics - The article highlights a decrease in the proportion of companies reporting insufficient demand, with the manufacturing sector's percentage dropping to 54.9% in January from 64.3% in the previous month. This suggests an improvement in supply-demand dynamics [4][11]. - The midstream growth rate difference reached 10.4%, up from 8.1%, indicating a positive trend in demand relative to investment growth [4][11].

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 出厂价格出现更多积极信号——1 月 PMI 数 据点评 ❖ PMI 数据：制造业 PMI 有所回落 1 月制造业 PMI 为 49.3%，前值为 50.1%。具体分项来看：1）PMI 生产指数 为 50.6%，前值为 51.7%，回落 1.1 个百分点。2）PMI 新订单指数为 49.2%， 前值为 50.8%。PMI 新出口订单指数为 47.8%，前值为 49.0%。3） PMI 从 业人员指数为 48.1%，前值为 48.2%。4）供货商配送时间指数为 50.1%，前 值为 50.2%。5）PMI 原材料库存指数为 47.4%，前值为 47.8%。 其他行业：1）建筑业：1 月，建筑业商务活动指数为 48.8%，比上月下降 4.0 个百分点。2）服务业：1 月，服务业商务活动指数为 49.5 %，比上月下降 0.2 个百分点。3）综合产出：1 月份，综合 PMI 产出指数为 49.8%，比上月下降 0.9 个百分点。 ❖ PMI 点评：出厂价格出现更多积极信号 首先，对于 1 月 PMI 的低于预期，其原因与去年 12 月的超预期大体一致，受 季末、年末因素 ...