Accessible version US Semiconductors 3Q Diversified Semi Preview: stability, but no sign of broad-based inflection yet Price Objective Change Expect in-line Q3/Q4 prints that are above seasonal trends We preview on-cycle diversified semi earnings where expectations for a broad-based recovery YTD have encountered a tepid demand backdrop suggesting relatively stable trends in CQ3/Q4. Diversified semi sales, in aggregate, are expected to grow 6.5% QoQ in C3Q (figure 7), 180bps above seasonality, while consensu ...

Core Insights - The company, Siwei Tuxin, is focusing on the automotive electronic chip sector, with its subsidiary, Jiefa Technology, having achieved full automotive-grade certification for its two product lines, SoC and MCU [2][2][2] - The company plans to continue advancing in integrated smart cockpit and L2+ level assisted driving functions, while also promoting the mass production and localization of mid-to-high-end automotive-grade chips in various scenarios such as power chassis, domain controllers, and new energy three-electric systems [2][2][2] Industry Context - Automotive-grade chips must undergo rigorous reliability, safety, and environmental adaptability testing, making the certification process lengthy and the entry barriers high, which is a critical aspect of the domestic substitution process in the automotive electronic field [2][2][2] - The certification and mass production of SoC and MCU, which are core components for smart cockpits, assisted driving, and power control, signify that the company possesses strong competitiveness in the automotive-grade market [2][2][2]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the investment potential of Zhaoyi Innovation, highlighting its recent stock price performance and the need for careful evaluation of its valuation, fundamentals, and market trends [1]. Valuation Screening - Zhaoyi Innovation's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 91.26, which is above the industry average. The estimated net profit for 2025 ranges from 1.452 billion to 1.774 billion yuan, suggesting a reasonable market value between 64 billion and 80 billion yuan, corresponding to a stock price of approximately 134 to 168 yuan. The current price of 158 yuan is near the upper limit of this range, indicating limited short-term safety margin [3]. - For medium to long-term investors, a phased investment strategy is recommended rather than chasing high prices [3]. Fundamental Screening - Zhaoyi Innovation is a leading player in both storage and MCU (Microcontroller Unit) sectors, holding the second-largest global market share in NOR Flash and the top position in MCU in China. The company is expected to see significant growth in 2024, with projected revenue of 7.356 billion yuan (up 27.69% year-on-year) and net profit of 1.103 billion yuan (up 584.21% year-on-year). In the first half of 2025, revenue is expected to reach 4.15 billion yuan, reflecting a 15% year-on-year increase [4]. - The company's financial health is strong, with excellent profitability, growth potential, and debt repayment capacity. Key growth drivers include: 1. Storage chips benefiting from increased storage capacity demands in AI terminals and a favorable market for niche DRAM due to the exit of major overseas manufacturers. 2. MCU leadership with over 700 products, actively expanding into automotive-grade and AI MCUs, already supplying major companies like BYD and Tesla [5]. 3. Entry into power management chips through the acquisition of Suzhou Saixin, creating synergies with existing operations [6]. Market Trend Screening - Zhaoyi Innovation is positioned at the intersection of three significant market trends: 1. AI edge computing, with rising demand for storage and computing chips in AI devices such as AI phones and AI glasses, making the company a key beneficiary. 2. Automotive electronics, where the trend towards electrification and intelligence in vehicles is driving demand for automotive-grade MCUs and storage chips, potentially increasing the company's revenue share [8]. 3. Domestic substitution, with accelerated localization of the semiconductor supply chain supported by policy and external pressures, allowing the company to continue benefiting as a market leader [9]. Technical Analysis and Strategy - The stock price of Zhaoyi Innovation is currently fluctuating between 150 and 160 yuan, with attention needed on whether it can break through the 160 yuan resistance level and the support around 145 yuan [10]. - Suggested investment strategies include: - Gradual accumulation below 145 yuan, with increased investment if the price approaches 130 yuan [11]. - Initial investment should not exceed 30% of the total planned investment, reserving funds for further purchases during price corrections [12]. - Short-term stop-loss set at 140 yuan, with a wider stop-loss for long-term investors at 120 yuan; target price range is 168-180 yuan [13]. - Key indicators to monitor include inventory turnover days, DRAM gross margin changes, and orders for automotive-grade MCUs [14].

Core Insights - The automotive chip sector is experiencing unprecedented attention and demand due to the rise of smart driving technologies, which are heavily reliant on high-performance chips [1][2][5]. Industry Overview - Smart driving is categorized into levels from L0 (no automation) to L5 (full automation), with increasing levels of automation leading to exponential growth in chip dependency [2]. - The demand for automotive chips is surging as L2 and above autonomous driving technologies become commercialized, necessitating real-time data processing from various sensors [2][5]. - The automotive chip industry is characterized as technology-intensive, with innovation being a core driver for development [7]. Company Highlights - BYD stands out in the automotive chip market due to its dual role as a vehicle manufacturer and chip designer, allowing for efficient integration and iteration of chip technology [3]. - East China Semiconductor (东芯股份) is recognized for its high-performance storage chips, which are increasingly essential in automotive electronics, leading to a steady rise in its stock price [3][4]. - Fudan Microelectronics (复旦微电) has a strong presence in the FPGA chip market, which plays a crucial role in the decision-making and control layers of smart driving, resulting in increased market recognition and stock performance [4]. - GigaDevice (兆易创新) has shown robust growth in both NOR Flash and MCU sectors, with its products being integral to automotive electronic systems, contributing to strong stock performance [4]. Market Dynamics - Government policies worldwide are increasingly supportive of smart driving and new energy vehicles, creating a favorable environment for the automotive chip industry [8]. - The rapid pace of technological updates in the automotive chip sector necessitates continuous R&D investment to maintain competitive advantages [8]. - The automotive chip supply chain is complex, and disruptions in any segment can significantly impact companies, highlighting the need for robust supply chain management [8].

Core Viewpoint - Zhongying Electronics is undergoing a potential change in control, which may impact its future operations and market position [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Zhongying Electronics is a leading domestic MCU manufacturer, particularly in the industrial control sector, and gained significant attention during the 2021 chip shortage [2][3]. - The company reported a revenue growth of 3.32% in 2024, but the growth rate has stagnated with only a 0.05% increase in Q1 2025, raising concerns about its future performance [2]. Group 2: Market Context - The MCU market is currently experiencing its largest downturn, following a period of high demand during the pandemic and subsequent supply chain issues [5]. - The competitive landscape has intensified, with prices plummeting and a shift towards aggressive pricing strategies among manufacturers [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Zhongying Electronics' revenue growth was approximately 50% in 2021, but it slowed to 7.23% in 2022 and declined in 2023 [2][3]. - The company has maintained a steady investment in R&D, with personnel numbers increasing from 401 in 2022 to 427 in 2024, and R&D expenses slightly decreasing from 3.23 billion yuan to 3.00 billion yuan over the same period [3]. Group 4: Leadership and Governance - Fu Qiming, the actual controller of Zhongying Electronics, holds 14.41% of the company's shares through Weilang International and is known for a conservative management style focused on stability and shareholder returns [4][5]. - Fu has expressed a commitment to ensuring the company's stable development and providing returns to shareholders, despite the challenging market conditions [5].