行业探索产品高端化与装置智能化降本的破局之道。 石化行业正深陷"产能过剩、利润承压、转型迫切"的三重困境。今年以来，化工行业整体步入下行通道，据连云港市发改委近日监测的国内16种主要化工品 价格，其综合平均价较年初已下降近14%。 "'内卷式'竞争正在冲击既有市场秩序，导致近三年来'增产增销不增利'。"中国石化联合会副会长傅向升此前表示，石化行业近十年来快速发展，新建炼化 一体化装置接续投产，一些大宗基础产品和通用材料"内卷式"竞争日渐严重。乙烯、苯酚、EVA、PX、PA66等多种石化产品或材料近五年来的产能、产量 累计增幅都在50%以上，有些产品产能远超国内市场消费量。 而同时，建筑、服装等产业消费增速放缓，削弱对大宗化工品的需求，加之全国仍有大量产能200万吨以下的老旧炼油装置在运行，导致石化行业陷入"内 卷"旋涡，产业结构优化与升级改造迫在眉睫。 此一背景下，作为石化龙头企业，中国石化（600028.SH）尝试以旗下茂名石化和中科炼化为实践样本，探索产品高端化与智能化降本的破局之路。 "以前拼原油加工规模，现在拼高端材料话语权。"在中国石化近日召开的上市25周年投资者反向路演活动上，茂名石化总经理杨文德 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the significant reliance of China's POE consumption on imports, with a projected apparent consumption of 440,000 tons in 2024, almost entirely dependent on imports, while EVA consumption is expected to reach 1,390,000 tons, with imports accounting for only 31% [1][2] - The report indicates a strong domestic substitution trend for ethylene-α-olefin copolymers, as the import volume has significantly decreased compared to the same period last year, driven by the commissioning of new LAO and POE facilities in China [1][2] - The α-olefin industry is characterized by high concentration, with North America holding 62% of global production capacity and the top five producers controlling 86% of the market [2] Group 2 - China's POE market has substantial growth potential, with major global production capacity concentrated in a few companies, particularly Dow Chemical, which holds approximately 48% of the capacity [2] - The report notes that China's α-olefin production capacity is set to break through, with significant advancements in technology allowing for the establishment of new LAO facilities, expected to reach a total capacity of 1,580,000 tons per year by 2026 [3] - The cost of ethylene is critical for controlling the costs of α-olefins and POE, with domestic production benefiting from lower costs compared to North America, despite the latter's advantages in ethylene and energy costs [4] Group 3 - The investment recommendation emphasizes the advantages of China's large refining facilities, which provide strong cost advantages in the production of ethylene, α-olefins, and POE, suggesting a focus on companies like Satellite Chemical and Wanhua Chemical [4]