2026 年 3 月 22 日 行业研究 坚守央企社会责任，筑牢能源安全与关键原料保供防线 ——石油化工行业周报第 443 期（20260316—20260322） 要点 美伊冲突持续发酵，石化关键原料供应链面临严峻考验。本周美伊冲突持续， 伊朗维持对霍尔木兹海峡的封锁，截断中东能源出口，原油供给端受到大幅度 冲击，驱动油价持续高位震荡。2025 年我国约 48%的进口原油途经霍尔木兹 海峡，70%的甲醇进口、50%的 LPG 进口和 40%的石脑油进口来自中东地区， 受霍尔木兹海峡关闭影响，中东原油、石脑油及液化天然气等关键原料的运输 严重受阻，对我国能源与石化关键原料供应造成严重威胁。中期来看若中东货 源供给持续收缩，沿海炼化一体化装置、PDH 装置及依赖进口甲醇的下游产 业链将承受更大的成本压力。 央企担当国家保供重任，国家和集团战略支撑为其筑牢供应链屏障。在央企 担当国家保供重任的同时，国家和集团层面的战略支撑也为其筑牢了供应链安 全屏障。（1）国家层面，国务院国资委进一步明确，要进一步深化改革，增 强核心功能，提升核心竞争力，做强、做优、做大国有企业和国有资本，推动 国有资本向关系国家安全、国民经济 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - The surge in Brent crude oil prices from $61.76 per barrel at the beginning of the year to $83 per barrel in March presents significant development opportunities for the coal chemical industry due to rising energy costs driven by geopolitical conflicts [2][12] - The hydrogen energy sector is entering a policy window, with the establishment of a national low-carbon transition fund and the cultivation of hydrogen and green fuel as new growth points highlighted in the 2026 Two Sessions work tasks [2][12] Summary by Relevant Sections Oil Price Impact - Brent crude oil prices have increased rapidly, with a notable single-day increase of 13%, leading to higher domestic fuel prices and increased costs for downstream chemical industries [12] - Resource provinces such as Xinjiang, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia are accelerating the layout of modern coal chemical projects, transitioning coal from a "fuel" to a "raw material" and "material" [12] Hydrogen Energy Policy - The hydrogen energy industry is receiving comprehensive policy support, with the National Energy Administration holding discussions on green fuels and the inclusion of hydrogen energy in government work reports as a key emerging industry [12] - Local initiatives, such as Shanxi's focus on the coke-gas-hydrogen industry chain and Inner Mongolia's green hydrogen production, are positioning these regions as leaders in the hydrogen sector [12] Company Developments - China Chemical is expected to benefit from rising oil prices, with its nylon industry chain poised for growth due to increased prices of key chemicals [12] - China Energy Engineering Corporation is advancing its hydrogen energy market position with significant investments in large-scale green hydrogen projects, including a total investment of 69.46 billion yuan for a green hydrogen and ammonia project [12]

Summary of China Chemical's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Chemical - **Industry**: Chemical and Construction Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - China Chemical's fundamentals are stable, with new contracts expected to grow by approximately 10% in 2025 and a year-on-year increase of 19% in January 2026, indicating a projected compound profit growth of over 10% in the future [2][8] - The chemical industrial sector is showing a clear trend of reducing losses, with an expected loss of 400-500 million yuan in 2024, but a potential turnaround by 2026 [2][11] - For every 1,000 yuan increase in the price of hexamethylenediamine, profit is expected to increase by approximately 200-300 million yuan [2][11] Performance of Subsidiaries - Shenghui is expected to accelerate its performance significantly in 2026-2027, with a growth rate exceeding 50% and a backlog of orders worth 2.5 billion yuan in 2025, which is a 50% increase year-on-year [2][5] - The semiconductor orders for Shenghui are projected to reach 2 billion yuan, reflecting a 160% year-on-year increase [2][5] Market Dynamics - The construction sector is currently influenced by three main lines: 1. **Domestic Demand Chain**: Focused on infrastructure support amid economic concerns, with companies like China State Construction and China Railway benefiting [2][6] 2. **Inflation Chain**: Driven by rising prices of resources, benefiting companies like China Chemical and China Railway [2][6][7] 3. **Technology Chain**: Focused on cleanroom technology, with companies like Yaxiang and Shenghui being key players [2][6][7] Asset Quality and Valuation - China Chemical has high asset quality, with cash flow exceeding net profit for two consecutive years, and net monetary funds of 21 billion yuan against a market capitalization of 50 billion yuan, indicating a price-to-book (PB) ratio of less than 1, suggesting a potential recovery space of 10%-20% [2][10][13] - The company’s client structure is superior to traditional construction stocks, leading to better cash flow quality [10] Pricing and Market Conditions - The industry leader has raised the price of hexamethylenediamine to 18,200 yuan per ton, which, combined with geopolitical tensions pushing oil prices, is expected to catalyze profit recovery in China Chemical's nylon industry chain [2][12] - Recent price increases for hexamethylenediamine reflect the industry's upward pricing pressure, with a cumulative increase of 1,100 yuan per ton over three months [12] External Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, may lead to higher global oil prices, positively impacting the nylon industry chain [12] - The dual carbon policy may create potential incremental order expectations due to transformation initiatives [12] Investment Logic and Valuation Recovery - China Chemical is positioned as a core investment target with solid operational quality and undervalued assets, with a projected annual profit growth of over 10% [8][9] - The valuation recovery path includes a focus on PB recovery to above 1, indicating a potential 10%-20% upside, and a possible expansion of the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to 12-15 times under a profit growth assumption of around 10% [13] Additional Important Insights - The company’s chemical industrial assets include significant production capacities, and the recovery of product prices is expected to improve profitability [10] - The ongoing "anti-involution" trend in the chemical industry suggests that domestic orders remain resilient despite overall industry weakness, benefiting from structural support [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Viewpoints - The price of hexamethylenediamine (HMD) has been on the rise, with a significant increase in demand and pricing due to tight supply and rising raw material costs. The price dropped to a low of 17,100 RMB/ton by the end of 2025 but has since increased to 18,200 RMB/ton in early 2026, marking a cumulative increase of 1,100 RMB [2][11]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the chemical industry, with a focus on the price increases of chemical products leading to profit elasticity. The company has a diverse chemical portfolio, including products like adiponitrile and caprolactam, which are anticipated to contribute positively to earnings in 2026 [11]. - The company has signed new contracts worth 403.66 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10%. This growth in orders is expected to support stable earnings growth, with a projected double-digit growth rate for the year [11]. - The asset quality of the company is significantly undervalued, with approximately 80% of new contracts coming from chemical engineering projects with reputable clients. The company has a strong cash position, with 38 billion RMB in cash and a net cash position of 21 billion RMB, indicating a low valuation at 0.9x PB [11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Price Trends - HMD prices peaked at 26,500 RMB/ton in April 2024, followed by a decline to 17,100 RMB/ton by the end of 2025. Starting January 2026, prices began to rise again, with three consecutive increases leading to a price of 18,200 RMB/ton [5][11]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 254.6 billion RMB in 2026, with a gross profit margin of approximately 10% [14]. - The net profit for 2026 is expected to reach 7.8 billion RMB, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 1.28 RMB [14]. Market Position - The company has a strong market position with a diverse portfolio in the chemical sector, including significant production capacities for various chemical products. The anticipated recovery in the chemical industry is expected to enhance profitability [11].

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-02-25 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 金融产品周报 20260207：海外市场流动性有企稳迹象，情绪或会好转【勘 误版】 市场行情展望：（2026.2.2-2026.2.6） 观点：市场短期进入结构混沌期， 但大盘指数仍然稳健。 2 月整体走势判断：2026 年 2 月，宏观择时模 型的月度评分是 0 分，历史上该分数万得全 A 指数后续一个月上涨概率 为 78.57%，平均涨幅为 3.37%。叠加日历效应中财报预告的结束，我们 对 2 月 A 股大盘走势持乐观的观点。但鉴于 1 月权益已累计不少盈利盘， 春节前可能有一定的止盈压力。 本周 A 股中，宽基 ETF 仍在持续流出, 但能观察到 1 月 30 日多数宽基 ETF 呈现明显成交额缩小的特征，说明 后续来自宽基 ETF 的抛压可能会逐步减小。同时通信、芯片、化工、石 油石化、港股非银等方向呈现资金流入的特征，可以关注后续资金的持续 性。 结构上，市场短期呈现混沌期特点。上周提示过的周期性行业表现 相对不错，石油、化工等方向仍旧较为稳健。但有 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Dongfang Shenghong (000301) for the first time [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the cyclical turning point has arrived, and Dongfang Shenghong, as a leader in refining and new materials, is poised for growth. The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the refining product market and the completion of its capital expenditures [8][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - Dongfang Shenghong is a global leader in large-scale refining, with a capacity of 16 million tons per year. The company has developed a comprehensive industrial structure that includes refining, new energy materials, and polyester fibers, leveraging a unique multi-feedstock approach for olefin production [8][15]. Industry Dynamics - The refining industry is undergoing a transformation, with a focus on reducing oil dependency and increasing chemical production. The report notes that the domestic refining sector is expected to consolidate, with larger integrated projects becoming the norm, which will benefit Dongfang Shenghong [33][40]. Financial Performance - The report forecasts that Dongfang Shenghong's revenue will be 126.2 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 8%, followed by a recovery to 138.5 billion yuan in 2026 and 142.0 billion yuan in 2027. The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching 1.4 billion yuan, with significant growth projected in subsequent years [1][72]. Product Segments - The refining segment is expected to maintain a gross margin above 20%, driven by the company's large-scale and efficient refining operations. The polyester segment, with a capacity of 3.6 million tons per year, is also projected to benefit from industry-wide production cuts aimed at stabilizing prices [36][71]. Capital Expenditure and Growth Prospects - The company is nearing the end of its capital expenditure phase, with most of its facilities already operational. This is expected to lead to improved operational efficiency and profitability as market conditions stabilize [8][10]. Competitive Advantages - Dongfang Shenghong's integrated supply chain and diverse feedstock sources provide it with a competitive edge in cost control and risk management. The company is also focusing on expanding its new materials product lines, which are expected to contribute significantly to future revenue [28][65].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic partnership between Dingjide and Kingfa Technology, focusing on the production and supply of POE and polyolefin catalysts and additives, aiming to establish a long-term cooperative relationship and set a new industry benchmark [2]. Company Overview - Dingjide, established in 2004, went public on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2022. The company's main products include POE, polyolefin catalysts, co-catalysts, antioxidants, and other polyolefin additives [4]. Investment and Project Development - In September 2023, Dingjide signed an investment agreement to establish Liaoning Dingjide Petrochemical Technology Co., Ltd., investing over 12 billion yuan in a petrochemical new materials project in Dalian Changxing Island, officially entering the high-end POE materials business [5]. - The total investment for the POE high-end new materials project exceeds 12 billion yuan, with the first phase planned to produce 200,000 tons/year of POE and 300,000 tons/year of ethylene to α-olefins, set to commence production in October 2025 [5]. - After the first phase, Dingjide plans to initiate the second phase, which includes an additional 200,000 tons/year of POE and 300,000 tons/year of ethylene to α-olefins [5]. Market Recognition and Competition - The POE pilot samples from Dingjide have been recognized by clients including Kingfa Technology, Plit, Dawn Group, Huitong New Materials, and Suzhou Hechang Polymer Materials [6]. - The domestic POE industry is entering a period of concentrated capacity release, with existing capacity exceeding 700,000 tons and planned capacity surpassing 6 million tons [7]. - The article highlights the risk of potential overcapacity and intensified competition in the industry as domestic production capabilities increase [7]. Production Technology and Capacity - The main production technologies for POE include Dow's INSITE high-temperature solution polymerization and ExxonMobil's Exxpol high-pressure polymerization, with the solution polymerization method being widely adopted by major producers [8]. - The current industrial capacity for POE in China includes various companies, with Dingjide set to produce 200,000 tons/year by October 2025 [9]. - The article notes that the gas-phase method for producing POE, developed by China National Petroleum Corporation, has achieved scale production, significantly reducing energy consumption compared to the solution method [9]. Technical Barriers and Catalyst Development - Catalysts are identified as a key component in POE production, alongside the supply of α-olefins and polymerization technology [11]. - Dingjide has developed a product line centered around the fourth-generation Ziegler-Natta catalyst and is also working on metallocene catalysts to cover mainstream production processes [11].

Group 1 - Economic Observation Network Dingjide (603255) has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with leading plastic modifier Jinfak Technology (600143) to achieve comprehensive collaboration on the production and supply model of POE and polyolefin catalysts and additives [1] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased attention on the energy and chemical sectors, with net inflows of 3.366 billion yuan into the oil futures sector and 1.431 billion yuan into the chemical futures sector [1] - On February 13, Dingjide disclosed a total external guarantee of 250 million yuan, with the guaranteed party being its subsidiary Liaoning Dingjide Petrochemical Technology Co., Ltd., and the guarantee method being joint liability [1] Group 2 - In the past 7 trading days, Dingjide's stock price has experienced a fluctuation range of 18.77%, with a single-day increase of 2.70% on February 9, but a closing price of 31.73 yuan on February 13, reflecting a decrease of 2.49% on that day and a cumulative decline of 2.76% over 5 days [2] - On February 13, the main funds showed a net outflow of 4.2 million yuan, with retail investors accounting for 46% of the funds [2] - The short-term technical outlook is under pressure, with the upper resistance level of the 20-day Bollinger Band at 34.78 yuan and the support level at 30.44 yuan [2] Group 3 - There is no new financial report information recently; however, the full-year performance forecast for 2025 was disclosed on January 30, expecting a net profit attributable to the parent company between 8.6324 million and 12.9486 million yuan, indicating a turnaround from losses, primarily due to the production of the POE project and cost reduction and efficiency improvement [3] Group 4 - No new research reports have been released in the past 7 days; however, previous analyses indicated that there is significant room for domestic substitution of POE, with the company's projects already in production and samples sent to leading film manufacturers, raising concerns about medium to long-term growth potential [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the new materials sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [2]. Core Insights - The new materials sector has experienced a decline, with the new materials index dropping by 1.53%, outperforming the ChiNext index by 1.76%. Over the past five trading days, various sub-sectors showed mixed performance, with battery chemicals slightly increasing by 0.09% while semiconductor materials fell by 3.70% [3][17]. - Strong capital expenditure growth is observed in North America, particularly among major cloud service providers like Amazon AWS, Microsoft, Google, and Meta, with a combined capital expenditure exceeding $670 billion in 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of over 60%. This investment is expected to drive demand for AI servers and related materials [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Secondary Market Performance - The new materials sector has seen a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index also experiencing negative movements. The new materials index's performance is highlighted as it has outperformed the ChiNext index [3][13]. 2. Industry Chain Data Tracking - Price tracking for various materials shows fluctuations, with amino acids like valine at 13,850 RMB/ton (-1.42%) and vitamins such as vitamin A at 60,500 RMB/ton (-1.63%). Prices for biodegradable plastics remain stable, indicating a steady market for these materials [4][12]. 3. Industry News - The report emphasizes the importance of AI infrastructure development, which is expected to enhance the demand for high-frequency and high-speed copper-clad laminates and related materials. Companies such as Shengquan Group and Dongcai Technology are highlighted for their potential in the resin sector, while Zhongcai Technology and Honghe Technology are noted for electronic fabrics [6]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on upstream material development opportunities, particularly in AI-related sectors, as the demand for advanced materials is anticipated to grow significantly due to the increasing need for AI server infrastructure [5][6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strategic partnership between Dingjide (603255) and Kingfa Technology (600143) in the plastic modification sector, focusing on a long-term collaboration for the production and supply of POE and polyolefin catalysts and additives [2][4] - The agreement aims to establish a stable strategic partnership, emphasizing resource sharing, product support, market expansion, and industrial collaboration [4] Group 2 - The article mentions an upcoming event, the "5th China Synthetic Biology and Biomanufacturing Conference," scheduled for March 31 to April 1, 2026, in Hangzhou, which will feature a special session on bio-based chemicals and materials [5] - The conference invites experts and industry practitioners to participate and exchange ideas, with a registration process through a WeChat mini-program [5][6]