2025 年 8 月 27 日 公司研究 油价下跌业绩承压下滑，静待大炼化迎来底部反转 ——荣盛石化（002493.SZ）2025 年半年报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：10.16 元 作者 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 zhaond@ebscn.com 分析师：蔡嘉豪 执业证书编号：S0930523070003 021-52523800 caijiahao@ebscn.com 市场数据 | 总股本(亿股) | 99.89 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿元)： | 1014.93 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 7.63/11.27 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 16.76% | 股价相对走势 -10% 0% 11% 22% 32% 08/24 11/24 02/25 05/25 荣盛石化 沪深300 PX 景气下行 Q4 业绩承压，新材料项目建设 稳步推进——荣盛石化（002493.SZ）2024 年年报点评（2025-04-29） 要点 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度报告，2025 年 H1 公司实现营业收入 1486.3 亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wanhua Chemical [1][7][17] Core Views - The company's Q2 performance shows signs of stabilization, with expectations for a cyclical recovery in the industry [5][11] - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 90.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.123 billion yuan, down 25.10% year-on-year [4][5] - The polyurethane sector is expected to improve profitability due to rising TDI and MDI prices, while the petrochemical segment faces challenges from oversupply [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 47.833 billion yuan, an 11% increase quarter-on-quarter, with net profit of 3.04 billion yuan remaining stable [5] - The company’s second ethylene unit with a capacity of 1.2 million tons/year has successfully commenced operations [6] Business Segments - The polyurethane industry shows stable demand, particularly in the new energy and high-end manufacturing sectors, driven by the lightweight requirements of electric vehicles [5] - The fine chemicals and new materials segments are experiencing steady growth, with ongoing product and capacity releases contributing to revenue stability [5][6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see EPS of 4.3, 5.34, and 6.29 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [7][8] - The report anticipates a revenue growth rate of 10.91% in 2025, with further increases in subsequent years [8][13]

石化和炼油行业反内卷，对化工行业影响几何？ 20250820 摘要 石化行业面临国内外市场产品价格下降和激烈竞争，以及反倾销诉讼的 挑战。国家通过摸排产能、淘汰重复装置和技术升级等措施，推动节能 降碳和产业结构优化，反内卷成为年度重点任务。 产能预警报告显示，炼油、丙烯、PVC 等 14 种产品为高风险，纯碱、 乙二醇等 10 种为较高风险，存在结构性过剩问题，低端产品过剩而高 端产品依赖进口，需淘汰老旧装置并引进先进技术。 民营企业在石化行业转型升级中更具优势，其设备新技术先进且盈利状 况良好，更愿意投入节能改造。央国企则面临更大的转型压力，需对老 旧装置进行核心改造升级。 碳达峰前，石化行业新增产能包括一次炼油能力增加 4,000 万吨，代表 先进技术和方向，不会导致过剩。乙烯等基础原料的新增装置将为"十 五五"期间高质量发展奠定基础。 石化产业链发展依赖政策引导和下游市场需求，鼓励炼化一体化、延长 产业链。医药、生物、航空航天、新能源等新兴市场需求增加，推动可 降解材料 BDO 和光伏材料 POE 等产品快速发展。 Q&A 石化行业在反内卷政策背景下的现状和发展趋势如何？ 反内卷政策对石化行业来说是一个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue decline of 12.13% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, while net profit increased by 14.15%, attributed to lower raw material costs and contributions from new products [2][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was 2.911 billion yuan, down from 3.313 billion yuan in the same period last year, marking a decrease of 12.13% [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 160.67 million yuan, up from 140.76 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 14.15% [3]. - Net profit excluding non-recurring items was 159.78 million yuan, a significant increase of 43.21% compared to 111.57 million yuan in the previous year [3]. - Operating cash flow increased by 4.49%, reaching 259.93 million yuan compared to 248.76 million yuan in the same period last year [3]. Segment Performance - Advanced Polymer Materials segment generated revenue of 1.651 billion yuan, down 6.04% year-on-year, with a gross margin decrease of 3.22% [3]. - Specialty Fine Materials segment saw revenue rise to 679.76 million yuan, up 25.32% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase of 10.07% [3]. - By-products and others generated 580.83 million yuan, down 42.72% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase of 2.88% [3]. Product Contributions - Ethylene-vinyl acetate (EVA) revenue was 764.94 million yuan, down 3.92% year-on-year, while the gross margin decreased by 5.27% [3]. - Polypropylene specialty materials generated 800.71 million yuan, down 4.47% year-on-year, with a stable gross margin [3]. - Epoxy derivatives revenue increased by 26.75% to 535.21 million yuan, with a gross margin improvement of 10.60% [3]. Business Development - The company aims to build a leading "specialized, refined, unique, and innovative" industrial cluster in various new materials fields, including new energy materials, biological materials, and electronic materials [4]. - Significant projects include a 200,000-ton EVA production line expected to be operational by the end of 2025, and a 10,000-ton lithium battery additive facility planned for completion in Q3 2025 [4][5]. - The company is also developing solid-state battery materials in partnership with Beijing Weilan New Energy, with some products already validated by downstream customers [4][5]. Strategic Moves - The company announced plans to merge its wholly-owned subsidiary, Lianhong (Shandong) Chemical Co., to enhance management efficiency and reduce costs [7]. - Lianhong Chemical, established in 2004, has significant assets and revenue contributions, including a 90,000-ton/year acetic acid production capacity [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain stable operations by compensating for price declines with increased volume, supported by new projects that will drive growth [1] - Despite a decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, the company has shown resilience in production and sales volume, with significant capacity expansions completed [5] - The company has a strong capital expenditure plan, with investments exceeding 100 billion yuan annually since 2018, ensuring long-term growth potential [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2025 is projected at 1,988.63 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.2% [2] - Net profit for 2025 is estimated at 135.19 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 3.7% [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 4.31 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15 [2] - The company reported a total revenue of 909.01 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, down 6.35% year-on-year, with a net profit of 61.23 billion yuan, down 25.10% year-on-year [5] - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 13.84%, a decrease of 2.57 percentage points year-on-year [5] Capacity Expansion and New Projects - The company has completed significant capacity expansions, including the MDI facility in Fujian, which increased capacity from 400,000 tons/year to 800,000 tons/year, and the new ethylene project in Yantai with a capacity of 1.2 million tons/year [5] - New projects in high-performance materials and other segments are expected to contribute to future growth [5] Financial Ratios and Projections - The company’s debt-to-asset ratio is projected to be 61.7% in 2025, indicating a stable financial structure [6] - Return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 11.8% in 2025, reflecting the company's ability to generate profit from shareholders' equity [6] - The net profit margin is projected to be 7.2% in 2025, indicating profitability despite market challenges [6]

上 市 公 司 基础化工 2025 年 08 月 12 日 万华化学 (600309) ——业绩略超预期，25Q2 控制费用盈利稳定，产品周期 逐步触底 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025H1 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 182,069 | 90,901 | 197,794 | 245,333 | 301,309 | | 同比增长率（%） | 3.8 | -6.4 | 8.6 | 24.0 | 22.8 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 13,033 | 6,123 | 13,105 | 16,991 | 23,688 | | 同比增长率（%） | -22.5 | -25.1 | 0.5 | 29.7 | 39.4 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 4.15 | 1.95 | 4.19 | 5.43 | 7.57 | | 毛利率（%） | 16.2 | 13.8 | 14.4 | 14.6 | 15.9 | | ROE（%） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent approval of two marine project applications by Shandong Yulong Petrochemical Co., Ltd., highlighting the significant investment and construction plans aimed at enhancing the petrochemical industry in Shandong Province [2][3]. Group 1: Project Overview - The total investment for the projects is approximately 11.79 billion yuan, with a construction period of 48 months [2]. - The projects will be located on Island 5, covering a land area of 700.15 hectares and a marine area of 639.3548 hectares [2]. - The projects will utilize methane for the production of various chemical products, including PTA, PTT, PBT, PCT, PCTG, and PETG [2]. Group 2: Company Background - Shandong Yulong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is a mixed-ownership enterprise, with private control by Nanshan Group and state-owned participation [2]. - The company is developing a 40 million tons per year integrated refining and chemical project, which is considered a major initiative for industrial transformation and high-quality development in Shandong Province [2][3]. Group 3: Project Milestones - The project transitioned from a reserve project to a planned project in June 2020, with various approvals received from national and provincial authorities throughout 2020 [3]. - The construction of the first phase of the project commenced on October 24, 2020, and is currently progressing rapidly [3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Prices of acrylonitrile and caprolactam have rebounded, while refrigerants and silicon materials remain at high levels [5][29] - The low-altitude economy and robotics industry are expected to drive demand for lightweight and high-performance materials [5][25] - The semiconductor materials market is projected to grow significantly, with China's market expected to outpace global growth [18][21] Summary by Sections 1. Key Sub-industry and Product Tracking - Silicon materials and refrigerants maintain high prices, with acrylonitrile averaging 8200 CNY/ton (up 1.86%) and caprolactam at 8950 CNY/ton (up 3.77%) [9][10] - The average price of polyvinylidene fluoride is 55,000 CNY/ton (down 8.33%) [9][10] 2. Electronic Chemicals - The electronic chemicals sector is characterized by a wide variety of specialized products, with a focus on wet electronic chemicals, photoresists, and electronic gases [12][15] - The market is highly segmented with significant technical barriers, making it challenging for companies to master multiple fields [16] 3. New Quality Productivity - Carbon fiber and ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE) are gaining attention due to their applications in low-altitude economy and robotics [25][30] - The demand for PEEK materials is increasing, particularly in humanoid robots, with a compound annual growth rate of 42.84% from 2012 to 2021 [31] 4. Lithium Battery/Storage Materials - Conductive agents like carbon black and carbon nanotubes are essential for lithium battery materials, with current prices for multi-wall carbon nanotube powder at 64,000 CNY/ton [34] - Sodium-ion battery materials are gaining traction due to their cost advantages and resource availability [36] 5. Photovoltaic/Wind Power Materials - EVA and POE are critical for photovoltaic applications, with current EVA prices at 10,460 CNY/ton [42][43] - The market for these materials is expected to stabilize after previous declines [42] 6. Bio-based Materials and Energy - Biodiesel prices have rebounded, with current market prices at 8,183 CNY/ton [46] - Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is projected to play a significant role in reducing carbon emissions in the aviation sector [44] 7. Renewable and Modified Plastics - The demand for recycled plastics is increasing, with a notable rise in the proportion of recycled materials used in packaging [48] - Special engineering plastics are gaining traction in various industries, including automotive and aerospace [48] 8. Coatings, Inks, and Pigments - The demand for new functional coating materials is growing due to the rise of wearable devices and smart home products [55] - The automotive sector is also driving demand for innovative coating solutions [55]

Core Viewpoint - Wanhua Chemical, a leading player in the chemical industry, is experiencing a resurgence in value due to rising TDI prices and the easing of ethane export restrictions from the U.S. after a period of industry downturn and challenges [1][7]. Group 1: Shareholder Actions - Prime Partner International Limited, a major shareholder, plans to reduce its stake in Wanhua Chemical by up to 0.54% over three months, which will lower its holding to 4.99% [2]. - The market reaction to this reduction was minimal, with a slight drop of 2.23% in stock price, as many believe the positive outlook for Wanhua Chemical outweighs the short-term negative impact of the share reduction [2][3]. Group 2: Price Movements and Market Dynamics - TDI prices have surged from €1900/ton to €2500/ton due to a fire at Covestro's TDI facility in Germany, which accounts for 55% of Europe's TDI capacity, leading to a significant supply disruption [3]. - In the domestic market, TDI prices increased from ¥10,733/ton in early May to ¥16,400/ton by July 31, marking a remarkable 52.80% rise [3]. - The stock price of Wanhua Chemical rose nearly 20%, from a low of ¥52 to around ¥66, driven by these price increases [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Capacity - Despite the current price increases, there are concerns about the sustainability of TDI prices due to stagnant domestic polyester demand, which may lead to an oversupply situation by 2025 [5]. - Wanhua Chemical's TDI capacity is approximately 144,000 tons/year, representing nearly 40% of global capacity, and the company is expected to maintain a balanced supply-demand relationship as production consolidates among leading firms [6]. - The company is diversifying its product offerings and investing in high-value chemical materials to reduce reliance on polyester, positioning itself as a more comprehensive player in the chemical industry [7]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Wanhua Chemical's valuation appears attractive compared to Covestro, which is set to be acquired for €12.87 billion, while Wanhua is projected to achieve a net profit of ¥13 billion in 2024 [8]. - The chemical industry is expected to see a return to profitability as companies with outdated capacities are phased out, making segments like polyurethane (TDI, MDI) worth monitoring [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the successful signing of the engineering design contract for the Qingdao Chengzhi Huqing Chemical New Materials Co., Ltd. new materials industrial park project, which includes a significant investment and advanced technology [1][5]. - The Qingdao Chengzhi Huqing new materials industrial park project covers an area of 528 acres with a total investment exceeding 5 billion RMB, divided into two phases, with the first phase focusing on a 40,000 tons/year ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene project expected to be completed by the end of 2025 [2]. - The project will utilize a complete set of POE process technology developed by Zhejiang Zhiying, which has been validated through small-scale and pilot tests, demonstrating its readiness for large-scale industrialization [3]. Group 2 - The engineering design for the 2×10 tons/year POE project is undertaken by Shanghai Zhiying, with the technology having passed safety reliability assessments and being recognized for its advanced performance and industrialization potential [3]. - The article mentions the upcoming 2025 Polymer Industry Annual Conference, which will focus on policy development, market analysis, investment and financing, and supply chain issues, indicating a growing interest in the polymer sector [8][9]. - Various forums and events related to innovation in polymer materials, including AI integration and new energy materials, are planned, showcasing the industry's direction towards technological advancement and collaboration [11][12].