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三生制药(1530.HK):PD1VEGF双抗的全球之路
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-26 02:48
参考公司基本 面和PD(L)1*VEGF赛道的巨大潜力,利用DCF估值法,我们上调公司的目标价至46.71 元,维持增持评级。我们预测公司2025-2027E 营业收入达191.78、118.95、140.51 亿元,归母净利润为 102.14、28.08、35.08 亿元,EPS 分别为4.26、1.17、1.46 元。 PD(L)1*VEGF 双抗有望覆盖2000 亿美金的市场,SSGJ-707 具有BIC 潜力。PD(L)1 单抗在过去十年间 逐渐成为了全球肿瘤治疗的标准,整体市场空间在2029 年有望达到1000 亿美金。PD(L)1*VEGF双抗一 方面在PD(L)1 单抗已经获批的适应症上展现出疗效提升,另一方面PD(L)1*VEGF 双抗也有望在此前 PD(L)1 未覆盖的适应症进行突破。SSGJ-707 全球进度第二,在临床前研究中展现出了相比竞品更好的 肿瘤抑制作用。在一线NSCLC 的I-II 期临床研究中,SSGJ-707 单药及联合化疗对比BNT327 和AK112 均展现出了更好的肿瘤抑制效果,我们认为SSGJ-707 存在BIC 潜力。 我们认为707 中国销售峰值有望达到63-8 ...
海通证券晨报-20250725
Haitong Securities· 2025-07-25 01:49
Group 1: Market Strategy - The key driver for the rise of the Chinese stock market in 2025 is the decline in the risk-free interest rate, which shifts investor focus from economic cycle fluctuations to discount rate changes [1][4][5] - Investors should adjust their understanding of the main contradictions in the market, recognizing that the decline in risk-free rates will lead to an increase in capital inflow into the stock market [1][4] Group 2: Real Estate Sector - China Merchants Shekou (招商蛇口) is positioned to benefit from the lowest financing costs in the industry, prudent financial strategies, and scarce land resources in Qianhai, leading to improved cash flow and risk management [4][6] - The company is focusing on high-energy cities and expanding its diversified REITs platform, which will drive performance recovery [4][8] Group 3: Nuclear Power Equipment Industry - The establishment of China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. marks a significant development in the nuclear fusion industry, indicating a trend towards commercialization and a clearer path for industrialization [10][12][13] - The company has received substantial investment, totaling approximately 11.49 billion yuan, which will enhance its capabilities in engineering, technology validation, and digital R&D [12][13] Group 4: Investment Banking and Fund Management - The public fund market saw a significant increase in new fund issuance in June 2025, with a total of 1,221.24 billion units, reflecting a 85.71% increase [29][30] - The market is witnessing a shift towards mixed products and floating rate products, driven by an increase in investor risk appetite and demand for alpha-generating products [30][31]