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拓荆科技(688072):三季度业绩大幅增长,全面受益存储与先进封装扩产
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-19 07:55
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company reported significant growth in Q3 2025, with revenue increasing by 124.15% year-on-year and net profit rising by 225.07% [1] - The company is benefiting from the expansion of storage and advanced packaging, with a substantial increase in orders and improved cash flow [2][3] - The company is positioned as a leader in domestic semiconductor thin film deposition equipment, with expectations for continued revenue growth and profitability improvements [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 22.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 124.15% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 81.94% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 42.20 billion yuan, up 85.27% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.57 billion yuan, up 105.14% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for Q3 was 34.42%, with expectations for improvement as new machines enter large-scale production [2] Orders and Cash Flow - The company has a robust order backlog, with contract liabilities reaching 48.94 billion yuan, an increase from 45.36 billion yuan in the previous quarter [2] - Operating cash flow significantly improved, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 28.32 billion yuan for the first three quarters [2] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing price increase cycle in the storage market, with over two-thirds of its orders related to storage [3] - The company is expanding its product offerings in advanced packaging, which is anticipated to see increased demand driven by AI computing needs [3] - Future revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 62.68 billion yuan, 83.72 billion yuan, and 109.01 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 10.41 billion yuan, 16.31 billion yuan, and 23.60 billion yuan [4][5]
拓荆科技(688072):Q3归母净利润同环比高增,先进制程验证机台进入规模量产阶段:——拓荆科技(688072):2025年三季报点评
Guohai Securities· 2025-10-31 12:57
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Insights - The company reported significant growth in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 4.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 85.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 557 million yuan, up 105.14% year-on-year [4][6]. - The advanced process verification equipment has entered mass production, contributing to substantial revenue growth [7]. - The company is positioned as a pioneer in domestic thin-film deposition equipment, actively expanding into hybrid bonding, which opens up long-term growth opportunities [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 85.27%, and a net profit of 557 million yuan, up 105.14% [4]. - In Q3 2025, revenue was 2.27 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 124.15% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 81.94% [7]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 33.28%, a decrease of 10.31 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 12.69%, an increase of 1.28 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company’s projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 6.12 billion, 8.08 billion, and 10.24 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 1.09 billion, 1.60 billion, and 2.23 billion yuan [9][10]. Market Performance Summary - The company's stock performance has significantly outpaced the CSI 300 index, with a 12-month increase of 116.0% compared to the index's 21.1% [6]. - As of October 30, 2025, the stock price was 326.75 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 138.63 to 341.80 yuan [6]. Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 84, 57, and 41 times, respectively [9][10]. - The expected ROE for the company is projected to increase from 17% in 2025 to 23% in 2027 [10].