新品验证顺利放量，Q2 盈利能力大幅回升 半导体 | | | 执业证书编号：S0740521120002 Email：wangfang02@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740521120001 Email：yangxu01@zts.com.cn 联系人：冯光亮 相关报告 1 、《【 中 泰 电 子 】 拓 荆 科 技 动业绩爆发》2024-09-10 拓荆科技（688072.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 26 日 Email：fenggl@zts.com.cn | 总股本(百万股) | 279.73 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 279.73 | | 市价(元) | 182.86 | | 市值(百万元) | 51,151.27 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 51,151.27 | | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company,拓荆科技, is expected to achieve a significant increase in revenue and net profit for Q2 2025, with revenue projected between 1.21-1.26 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 52.18%-58.47% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 74.26% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be between 238-247 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 100.64%-108.22% and a turnaround from loss to profit [5] - The gross profit margin has improved significantly quarter-on-quarter, indicating better cost control and operational efficiency [7] Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2025, the company anticipates a net cash flow from operating activities of 1.48-1.58 billion yuan, a substantial year-on-year increase due to higher advance payments and sales collections [7] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.61 billion, 7.23 billion, and 8.98 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 990 million, 1.38 billion, and 1.93 billion yuan [9][10] - The expected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 44, 32, and 23 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend as the company grows [9][10] Market Performance - As of July 17, 2025, the company's stock price is 156.55 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 43.79 billion yuan [6] - The company's performance relative to the CSI 300 index shows a 1-month increase of 11.7%, a 3-month decrease of 1.1%, and a 12-month increase of 22.9% [6]

Performance Forecast - The company forecasts a net profit of between 238 million and 247 million yuan for the second quarter of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 101% to 108% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company, after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, is expected to be between 215 million and 224 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 235% [1] Previous Year Performance - In the second quarter of 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 795.10 million yuan [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 118.62 million yuan [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 64.17 million yuan [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities was -178.46 million yuan [1] Reasons for Performance Changes - The significant growth in operating income for the second quarter of 2025 is attributed to the company's strategic focus on domestic substitution in semiconductor equipment, leveraging its advanced technology in thin film deposition equipment and three-dimensional integration bonding equipment [1] - The company’s advanced process verification machines have successfully passed customer certification and are entering large-scale production [2] - The gross profit margin for the second quarter is expected to improve significantly compared to the previous quarter, indicating a steady recovery [2] - The net cash flow from operating activities is expected to increase significantly year-on-year due to a substantial rise in advance payments and sales collections [2]

Company Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of approximately 4.103 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 51.7% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 688 million, with a year-on-year increase of 3.86% [1] - However, in the first quarter of this year, the company reported a net loss of 147 million, attributed to high costs associated with new products and processes [1] Order Backlog and Market Outlook - The company has a robust order backlog, with an order amount of approximately 9.4 billion as of the end of 2024, indicating a healthy operational trend for 2025 [1] - The main products include thin film deposition equipment and advanced bonding equipment for 3D integration [1] Industry Position and Competition - The thin film deposition equipment industry is characterized by monopolistic competition, dominated by international giants such as Applied Materials, Lam Research, and Tokyo Electron, which hold about 70% of the CVD market [2] - The company has established a significant first-mover advantage in the domestic semiconductor equipment industry through its technological accumulation and rapid development [2] Research and Development - In 2023, the company's R&D investment reached 756 million, and in the first quarter of this year, it totaled 157 million, accounting for 22.38% of revenue, one of the highest among domestic semiconductor equipment companies [3] - The company launched over 10 new products/processes in 2024, including various thin film deposition equipment and advanced bonding equipment for 3D integration [3] International Expansion - The company's revenue is primarily sourced from mainland China, but it has established subsidiaries in Japan and Singapore to facilitate overseas market expansion [4] - The company plans to actively seek opportunities in overseas markets to continue its growth trajectory [4]

多种薄膜新工艺设备实现批量出货，关键材料持续突破。 公司拓展了芯片沟槽填充用Flowable CVD设 备，多台通过客户验证；基于新平台、新反应腔的PECVD Stack（ONO叠层）、ACHM等先进工艺设备 实现了大批量出货，通过客户验证；ALD SiCO、SiN、AlN等工艺设备实现大批量出货。目前公司推出 的PECVD、ALD、SACVD、HDPCVD及Flowable CVD薄膜设备可以支撑全部介质薄膜材料的约100多 种工艺应用。 点击招商研究小程序查看PDF报告原文 拓荆科技发布2024年报，24Q4利润快速释放，在手订单同比高增长。公司多种薄膜新工艺设备实现批 量出货，3D IC领域混合键合设备获得重复订单。 24Q4利润快速释放，在手订单同比高增长。 1）2024全年： 公司收入41亿元，同比+51.7%；归母净利 润6.88亿元，同比+3.86%；扣非净利润3.56亿元，同比+14.1%；截至2024年底，公司在手订单约94亿 元，同比+46.3%； 2）24Q4： 公司收入18.26亿元，同比+82%/环比+81%；毛利率39.3%，同 比-12.8pcts/环比持平，同比承压主要系新品或 ...