从产品、渠道及服务再看 PHM 龙头成长潜 力 核心观点 | | 买入 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年06月10日） | 50.38 元 | | 目标价格 | 62.16 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 59.08/18.58 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 8,743/8,670 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 4,405 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 计算机 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 06 月 11 日 | 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 调整收入增速、毛利率和费用率，我们预测公司 25-27 年的每股收益分别为 1.68、 2.22、2.91 元（原预测 25-26 年每股收益为 1.46/1.93 元），根据可比公司 25 年 PE 水平，给予公司 25 年 37 倍市盈率，对应目标价为 62.16 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 制造业转型升级不及预期，渠道改革进展不及预期 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

盈利预测与估值 公司公布2024 年及1Q25 业绩：2024 年公司营收5.84 亿元，同比增长17.21%；归母净利润1.08 亿元， 同比增长71.49%。单季度来看，4Q24 营收2.41 亿元，同比增长21.65%；归母净利润1.05 亿元，同比增 长32.56%。 1Q25 营收8357 万元，同比增长37.51%；归母净利润-672 万元，公司业绩季度性较强，亏损同比收窄 1,268 万元。公司管理重新梳理、叠加伙伴模式导入，经营拐点向上，2024 年和1Q25 业绩略高于我们 预期。 2024 年煤炭、冶金贡献高收入增长。2024 年公司营收5.84 亿元（同比+17.21%），分行业看，电力、 石化、冶金、水泥、煤炭、其他营收分别为2.29/0.84/1.05/0.29/0.80/0.50 亿元， 分别同比 +17.92%/-13.10%/+41.40%/+13.12%/+63.61%/+43.49%；煤炭行业合作伙伴战略执行持续推进、冶金行 业绑定核心客户创新商业模式、有色金属等其他行业积极拓展，多行业布局平衡发展。 运营管理效率提升，24 年毛利率同比+1.4ppt。2024/1Q25 ...

2）容知日新 （北京源乐晟资产参与公司业绩说明会&投资者线上交流会&线上交流） 调研纪要：容知日新2024年度服务收入约2,300万元，同比增长73%。公司重点拓展电力、冶金、石 化、煤炭、水泥、有色、轨交、水务、火电和港口等行业。2025年一季度石化行业业绩大幅提升。公司 具有完整技术链体系，实时接入超18万台设备，打造PHMGPT大模型。2024年现金流从负7,000多万提 升为正7,000多万，2025年将保持良好状态。公司已接入DeepSeek，未来可能接入更优秀的大模型。对 电力行业发展有信心，2025年加大火电市场拓展。2025年费用相比2024年不会有大幅变化。大部分行业 传感器通用，特定场景有特殊需求。 3）晶瑞电材 （源乐晟资产参与公司电话会议） 根据市场公开信息及4月28日披露的机构调研信息，知名私募源乐晟资产近期对3家上市公司进行了调 研，相关名单如下： 1）玉马科技 （北京源乐晟资产参与公司业绩说明会） 调研纪要：玉马科技一季度净利润下降幅度较大，主要受假期和关税政策影响，加上股权激励和研发费 用增加。对美出口收入占10%，在美国有子公司和仓库，已在新加坡设子公司，计划建设越南生产基 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [3]. Core Insights - The company has returned to high growth due to management system reforms and is positioned in a vast blue ocean market, particularly benefiting from the rapid development of AI technology [3]. - The company is a leader in the Chinese PHM industry, actively building a partner ecosystem, expanding into new industries, and investing in AI technology [3]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 584 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.21%, with a net profit of 107.52 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 71.49% [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 584 million yuan, with a net profit of 107.52 million yuan, exceeding market expectations [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 84 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.51%, and a net profit of -6 million yuan, showing a growth of 66.89% [1]. - The company's operating cash flow improved significantly, with 72 million yuan in 2024 and 7 million yuan in Q1 2025, compared to negative cash flows in the previous year [8]. Industry and Market Position - The company is positioned in a rapidly growing market, with significant revenue growth in sectors such as metallurgy, coal, and non-ferrous industries [8]. - The number of connected devices has rapidly increased, with over 180,000 devices monitored, showcasing the company's technological advancements and market competitiveness [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [3]. Core Insights - The company has returned to high growth with a significant improvement in cash flow, driven by management system reforms and a focus on AI technology in a rapidly developing market [3]. - The company achieved a revenue of 584 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.21%, and a net profit of 107.52 million yuan, up 71.49% year-on-year [1][3]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 84 million yuan, a 37.51% increase year-on-year, although it recorded a net loss of 6 million yuan [1]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 498.04 million yuan in 2023 to 1,362.79 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.29% [1]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 62.70 million yuan in 2023 to 278.72 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 43.54% [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.72 yuan in 2023 to 3.19 yuan in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [1]. Industry and Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the PHM (Predictive Health Management) industry in China, with a strategy focused on building a partner ecosystem and expanding into new sectors [3]. - The company has made significant advancements in AI technology, with over 180,000 devices connected for remote monitoring and a robust database of over 30,000 industrial equipment failure cases [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][2] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth across multiple downstream industries, with a notable increase in revenue from the coal industry by 63.61% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing its research and development efforts, particularly in the field of predictive maintenance through AI technologies [1] - Strategic initiatives, including partnership strategies and service productization, are expected to drive high-quality growth for the company [1] Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, the company achieved revenue of 584 million, a year-on-year increase of 17.21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 108 million, up 71.49% [1][3] - The gross profit margin for the company was 63.62%, an increase of 1.49 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company’s revenue from the power industry reached 229 million in 2024, a 17.92% increase, while the revenue from the coal industry was 80 million, reflecting a 63.61% increase [1] - The company’s R&D expense ratio was 18.36% in 2024, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [1] Earnings Forecast - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.74, 2.31, and 3.06 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 30.34, 22.87, and 17.23 [2][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][2] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth across multiple downstream industries, with a notable increase in revenue from the coal industry by 63.61% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing its research and development efforts, particularly in the field of predictive maintenance through AI technologies [1] - Strategic initiatives, including partnership strategies and service productization, are expected to drive high-quality growth for the company [1] Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, the company achieved revenue of 584 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 108 million yuan, up 71.49% [1][3] - The gross profit margin for the company was 63.62%, an increase of 1.49 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company’s revenue from the power industry reached 229 million yuan in 2024, a 17.92% increase year-on-year, while the revenue from the coal industry was 80 million yuan, reflecting a 63.61% increase [1][3] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have earnings per share (EPS) of 1.74, 2.31, and 3.06 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 30.34, 22.87, and 17.23 [2][3]