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PVC:库存去化,开工率升,压力仍存
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-14 06:52
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that PVC futures have shown a slight increase, with a 1.07% rise to 4892 yuan/ton, while social inventory has decreased by 0.41% to 651,000 tons, maintaining a trend of inventory reduction [1][1][1] - The overall operating rate for PVC this week is reported at 80.3%, which is an increase of 1% week-on-week, with the calcium carbide method at 81.3% (up 2.3%) and the ethylene method at 77.8% (down 2.4%) [1][1][1] - Market prices for PVC in different regions have shown varying adjustments, with East China prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4610 to 4770 yuan/ton and ethylene method around 4850 to 5100 yuan/ton [1][1][1] Group 2 - Institutions express that despite the ongoing spring maintenance, the scale is less than the same period last year, and the recent operating rates are rebounding, but PVC pressure remains significant until demand improves [1][1][1] - The article highlights that the medium to long-term outlook for PVC remains weak due to low demand, limited exports, and high operating rates in the caustic soda sector, with inventory still high despite some reduction [1][1][1] - There is a focus on the potential impact of US tariffs, with expectations that short-term tariff easing may not significantly affect demand, and attention is drawn to upcoming US CPI and China's macro data for April [1][1][1]
春检规模不及去年同期 预期PVC反弹空间受限
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-14 05:47
Group 1 - PVC futures rose by 1.07% to 4892 yuan/ton in the night session [1] - Last week, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.41% to 651,000 tons, indicating a trend of inventory reduction with limited pressure [2] - The overall operating rate of PVC this week is 80.3%, up 1% week-on-week, with the calcium carbide method at 81.3% (up 2.3%) and the ethylene method at 77.8% (down 2.4%) [2] Group 2 - Spring maintenance is halfway through, with the scale not matching last year's levels, and recent operating rates are rebounding; however, PVC faces pressure until demand improves [3] - Long-term outlook for PVC demand remains weak due to real estate drag, with exports facing anti-dumping and BIS certification pressures, maintaining a stable state of price for volume [3] - Recent inventory reduction is acceptable but still high, with a loose supply-demand balance; macroeconomic factors are expected to dominate price movements [3]