证券研究报告 海外MNC动态跟踪系列（十七） 辉瑞发布2025Q3财报：Nectin-4 ADC表现亮眼 医药 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 医药团队 分析师： 叶寅 投资咨询资格编号:S1060514100001 邮箱：YEYIN757@PINGAN.COM.CN 韩盟盟 投资咨询资格编号:S1060519060002 邮箱：HANMENGMENG005@PINGAN.COM.CN 张梦鸽 投资咨询资格编号:S1060525070003 邮箱：ZHANGMENGGE752@PINGAN.COM.CN 2025年11月20日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 行业观点 2 事件：辉瑞公布2025Q3业绩，Q3营收由去年同期的177亿美元降至166.5亿美元，同比下降7%（全文均以Oper增速为口径，剔除汇 率影响），主要受新冠产品（Paxlovid和Comirnaty）需求下滑拖累。尽管如此，公司上调了其全年盈利预测，因其非新冠业务增长 抵消整体营收滑坡。2025年前三季度总营收450.22亿美元，同比下降2%。 核心产品销售分析：肿瘤板块是三个板块增速最快板块，成为辉瑞业绩增长引擎。扛起肿瘤业务大旗的还是乳腺癌 ...

Core Insights - The approval of PD-1 inhibitors Keytruda and Opdivo a decade ago has significantly transformed cancer treatment, particularly in lung cancer, melanoma, and lymphoma, marking the beginning of the immunotherapy era [1] - As key patents near expiration and biosimilars enter the market, the market share of leading products is under pressure, with Merck's Keytruda sales growth slowing to 8% and BMS's Opdivo experiencing a 1% decline [1][2] - The oncology market is evolving into a 2.0 era, with companies like Merck and BMS focusing on combination therapies involving ADCs (antibody-drug conjugates) to maintain competitive advantages [1][2] Industry Trends - The global oncology drug market is projected to grow from $168 billion in 2020 to $247 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.2%, while the ADC market is expanding rapidly with a CAGR of 41.7% [1] - Merck is actively building a "PD-1+ADC" treatment matrix, acquiring ADC technologies and collaborating with various companies to enhance the efficacy and application of Keytruda [2] - The KEYNOTE-905 study presented at ESMO 2025 demonstrated significant clinical benefits of combining Keytruda with Padcev in treating muscle-invasive bladder cancer, potentially changing clinical practices [3] Company Developments - Domestic companies like Fuhong Hanlin are making strides in ADC development, with promising clinical data for their PD-L1 ADC HLX43 in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) [4] - The Chinese market is witnessing a shift towards innovative therapies, with a focus on combination strategies involving PD-1 inhibitors and ADCs, as well as dual-targeting antibodies [5][6] - Major pharmaceutical companies are increasingly interested in acquiring innovative assets in the PD-1 and ADC space, indicating a trend towards collaboration and co-development in the industry [6]

Core Insights - The approval of PD-1 inhibitors Keytruda and Opdivo a decade ago has significantly transformed cancer treatment, particularly in lung cancer, melanoma, and lymphoma, marking the beginning of the immunotherapy era [1] - As key patents near expiration and biosimilars enter the market, the market share of leading products is under pressure, with Merck's Keytruda sales growth slowing to 8% and BMS's Opdivo experiencing a 1% decline [1] - The oncology market is evolving into a "2.0 era," with companies like Merck and BMS focusing on combination therapies involving PD-1 and ADCs to maintain competitive advantages [1][2] Industry Overview - The global oncology drug market is projected to grow from $168 billion in 2020 to $247 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.2%, while the ADC market is expected to exceed $35 billion with a CAGR of 41.7% [1] - The shift in market dynamics indicates a move towards a multi-target competition era, emphasizing ADCs and combination therapies [1] Company Strategies - Merck is actively building a "PD-1+ADC" treatment matrix through acquisitions and partnerships, aiming to extend the lifecycle of Keytruda [2] - Recent FDA approvals for combination therapies, such as Keytruda with Padcev for bladder cancer, highlight the potential for these combinations to change clinical practices [3] - BMS has also expanded its combination therapies, with its dual immunotherapy for liver cancer becoming the first approved in China [3] Domestic Innovations - Chinese biotech companies are rapidly advancing in the "PD-1+ADC" space, with companies like Junshi Biosciences reporting promising clinical data for their PD-L1 ADC, HLX43, in non-small cell lung cancer [4] - The industry is moving towards "dual antibodies/multi-antibodies + ADC" strategies, with companies like Rongchang Bio and Pfizer exploring innovative combinations [5] Future Directions - The next generation of IO and ADC therapies is expected to become a focal point for multinational corporations in the oncology sector, with a strong emphasis on business development in China [6] - Companies are increasingly inclined to pursue co-development models as clinical data becomes more robust, indicating a trend towards strategic partnerships in the industry [6]