硅谷101 . 有趣有用的商业访谈 以下文章来源于硅谷101 ，作者硅谷101 来源丨硅谷101 （ID： TheValey101 ） 作者丨 鲁漪文 图源丨M idjourney 2025年最受关注的科技股IPO，是曾被Adobe"抛弃"的Figma。也许你没听说过Figma，但你每天用的App、打开的网页界面，很可能就诞生于这一全球最 流行的设计工具。 Adobe已经是行业巨头，市值超过2000亿美元，旗下Photoshop, Illustrator, InDesign, Lightroom, Premiere等近百个软件产品让它坐稳创意软件行业的 宝座。 三年前，Adobe曾出价200亿美元收购Figma，然而，这笔收购案戛然而止。如今，Figma带着一份亮眼的招股书，以及其中150次提及的"AI"关键词，站 在了IPO聚光灯下。但与此同时，外界也在质疑其AI功能尚不成熟、定位不清晰。 本文我们就来聊聊：Figma凭什么在Adobe转身离去后还能独立闯关IPO？它讲的AI故事是真创新，还是被迫自救？Lovable等AI原生设计工具正在崛起， Figma还能稳住设计工具王者宝座吗？AI又将如何再次改写Fi ...

Core Viewpoint - Adobe's latest quarterly performance and sales outlook exceeded Wall Street analysts' expectations, but investor skepticism remains regarding its ability to compete against AI-focused companies like OpenAI's Sora and Runway in the creative software market [1][2][6]. Financial Performance - For the third fiscal quarter of 2025, Adobe expects overall sales to reach between $5.88 billion and $5.93 billion, surpassing the average analyst expectation of approximately $5.88 billion [1]. - Non-GAAP profit per share is projected to be between $5.15 and $5.20, compared to the average analyst estimate of $5.11 [1]. - Adobe's second fiscal quarter sales grew by 11% year-over-year to $5.87 billion, exceeding the average analyst expectation of $5.8 billion [8]. AI Integration and Product Development - Adobe has integrated generative AI features into its flagship products like Photoshop, Premiere, and Illustrator, creating a new "AI family bucket" model [2][8]. - The Firefly AI series has been used over 24 billion times, generating more than 24 billion units of AI content, indicating significant user engagement [3]. - Adobe's Firefly Video Model and "Text-to-Video" capabilities are being tested and integrated into its creative software workflow, enhancing video editing efficiency [9][10]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Despite a brief surge in stock price post-earnings, Adobe's shares have faced a decline of about 7% year-to-date, underperforming the S&P 500 index [6]. - Analysts express that the market may misunderstand Adobe's position in the face of AI competition, suggesting that the company's technological advancements are not being fully recognized [2]. - Adobe's strategy focuses on copyright compliance and workflow integration to capture market share in the AI application software sector, competing directly with emerging players like Sora and Runway [11][12]. Industry Trends - AI-related spending is becoming a top priority for enterprises, with expectations that AI-related expenditures will account for 27.7% of software budgets by mid-2025, increasing to 31.6% by 2026 [16].

Core Viewpoint - Adobe is expected to report its second-quarter fiscal 2025 results on June 12, projecting total revenues between $5.77 billion and $5.82 billion, with non-GAAP earnings between $4.95 and $5 per share [1][10] Revenue Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is $5.79 billion, indicating an 8.99% growth from the previous year [2] - The Digital Media segment revenues are projected to be between $4.27 billion and $4.30 billion, suggesting a 9.3% year-over-year growth [3] - The Digital Experience segment revenues are anticipated to be in the range of $1.43 billion to $1.45 billion, with a consensus estimate of $1.43 billion indicating an 8.3% year-over-year growth [4] Earnings Expectations - The consensus mark for earnings has remained at $4.96 per share, reflecting a 10.71% growth from the year-ago quarter [2] Growth Drivers - Adobe's strong Generative AI portfolio and partnerships with major companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet are expected to drive top-line growth [5] - The launch of Firefly Image Model 3 and enhancements to existing models have improved user experiences across Adobe's tools [6] - Increased adoption of Adobe Express by businesses and integrations with popular applications like ChatGPT and Google have expanded customer reach [7] Competitive Landscape - Adobe's Document Cloud AI Assistant is now integrated into various platforms, enhancing its utility for users [8] - Despite strong growth factors, Adobe faces stiff competition in the GenAI space and challenges in monetizing its AI solutions [9][20] Stock Performance - Year-to-date, Adobe shares have declined by 6.4%, underperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector and the Zacks Computer Software industry [11] - Adobe's current valuation is considered stretched, with a forward 12-month price/sales ratio of 7.22X, higher than the sector's 6.37X [14] Strategic Partnerships - Adobe's partnerships with Amazon and other tech giants enhance its offerings and customer base, particularly through the Adobe Experience Platform on Amazon Web Services [17] - The integration of Acrobat PDF technology into Microsoft Edge and Google Chrome is a significant advantage, contributing to rising free-to-paid conversions [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strong performance of Palantir Technologies due to advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and highlights two other AI stocks, Salesforce and Adobe, that are expected to outperform Palantir in the near future [1][2][3]. Palantir Technologies - Palantir has seen a remarkable stock increase of 1,630% since December 2022, with a current market cap exceeding $300 billion [2]. - The company's financial results are strong, with a year-over-year revenue growth of 39% in the first quarter and an operating margin of 44% [6]. - Despite excellent operating results, Palantir's stock is considered overvalued, trading at more than 75 times the management's revenue outlook for 2025 and 175 times EBITDA expectations for the next 12 months [7][8]. Salesforce - Salesforce is enhancing its enterprise software solutions with AI through its Agentforce platform, which has generated around $100 million in annual recurring revenue shortly after launch [9][10]. - The company expects total sales to exceed $41 billion this year, with an operating margin of 34% [10]. - Salesforce stock trades at just 6 times management's revenue guidance, with a forward P/E ratio of 23, and analysts have a median price target of $355, indicating a potential 35% upside [13]. Adobe - Adobe has integrated AI innovations into its creative and marketing software, leading to increased pricing and customer acquisition [14][15]. - The company reported $125 million in annual recurring revenue directly from AI services, expecting this to double by year-end, and $3.5 billion in AI-influenced annual recurring revenue across its portfolio [16]. - Adobe stock trades for about 7 times management's estimate for 2025 revenue, with a forward P/E below 20, and analysts have a median price target of $477.50, suggesting a 19% upside [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - Adobe's stock has increased by 19% in a month due to its focus on Generative AI and innovative portfolio, but faces challenges from competition and monetization issues [1][3] Company Performance - Adobe's AI business is small compared to competitors like Microsoft and Alphabet, with Microsoft benefiting from Azure AI services and Alphabet from its AI infrastructure [2] - Adobe shares have underperformed compared to Microsoft and DocuSign, which returned 24.9% and 20.9% respectively, while Adobe outperformed Alphabet's 8.2% return [3] Valuation Metrics - Adobe's stock is considered overvalued with a forward price/sales ratio of 7.28X, higher than the sector average of 6.14X and competitors like Salesforce and DocuSign [6] AI Portfolio Development - Adobe has expanded its AI offerings with products like Adobe GenStudio and Firefly Services, aimed at enhancing marketing collaboration [9] - The company plans to monetize Firefly through new Creative Cloud offerings and is integrating AI across its portfolio, which is expected to drive top-line growth [10] Financial Guidance - Adobe's AI business is projected to grow from over $125 million in Q1 FY25, expected to double by the end of FY25 [11] - For FY25, Adobe anticipates Digital Media segment revenues between $17.25 billion and $17.40 billion, with total revenue guidance between $23.30 billion and $23.55 billion [12][13] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FY25 earnings is $20.36 per share, reflecting a 10.53% growth over FY24, although it has seen a decline in estimates recently [14] - The estimate for Q2 FY25 earnings is $4.96 per share, suggesting a 10.71% growth from the previous year [16]

作者 | Simple Investment Ideas 编译 | 华尔街大事件 Adobe（ NASDAQ： ADBE ）长期以来一直是创意软件领域的佼佼者，这使得该公司能够对其 Photoshop 和 Premiere Pro 等行业标准工具收取额外费用。然而，该公司的地位正受到日益 复杂 的人工智能图像和视频生成工具的严重威胁。OpenAI 的 4o 图像生成突破 是人工智能浪潮日益 高涨的最新例证，凸显了人工智能工具与 Adobe 专业套件之间的差距正在缩小。这一变化对 Adobe 的商业模式构成了重大威胁，因为它削弱了 Adobe 的定价能力和长期差异化。随着这些 人工智能媒体的创新步伐和开放程度不断提高，Adobe 的竞争护城河可能会被削弱。 OpenAI 最新的图像生成器模型成功运用了 自回归 ，相较于上一代 AI 媒体创作工具，实现了显 著的阶跃式改进。该工具能够根据指令生成高保真图像，这使得其人气飙升。过去需要昂贵的软 件许可证或订阅才能完成的工作，现在只需极低的成本即可完成。OpenAI 4o 图像生成工具的迅 速流行凸显了这一威胁。事实上，OpenAI 首席执行官 Sam Altman ...