However, that's a big "if." Quantum computing is still an early-stage technology, and the companies involved are generating little revenue. For instance, IonQ has a $16 billion market cap, but it guided for a top line of $106 million to $110 million in 2025. That gives it a sky-high price-to-sales ratio of 145. Meanwhile, it's expecting to report a loss of $206 million to $216 million for the year. It will need to perform perfectly from here for many years just to justify its current valuation. Rigetti and ...

Group 1 - Major stock indexes, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, traded lower, indicating potential mild losses as 2025 comes to a close [5] - Nvidia and Tesla were identified as early losers in the stock market, contributing to the downward trend [5] - Dow Jones futures fell by 0.1% and S&P 500 futures dropped by 0.3% in premarket trading [5] Group 2 - AI stocks are facing a critical moment, with OpenAI's performance being pivotal for many tech companies invested in AI [6] - There is a looming threat of debt accumulation among six AI stocks within the S&P 500, raising concerns about their financial stability [7] - Quantum computing stocks have gained attention in 2025, but there are questions about the sustainability of this interest [7]

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of quantum computing poses significant risks to current cryptographic systems, particularly those used in blockchain technology, necessitating proactive measures to mitigate these threats [3][8][23]. Quantum Computing Overview - Quantum computing represents a fundamentally different approach to computation compared to traditional semiconductors, with the potential to revolutionize the industry if developed efficiently [2]. - Major players in the semiconductor industry, such as Intel, ASML, and TSMC, dominate the current landscape, but quantum computing is seen as a future advantage for those who can lead in this technology [2]. Risks to Cryptography - Quantum computing has the capability to break widely used cryptographic algorithms, which protect digital assets on blockchains, presenting a significant risk to the security of these assets [3][10]. - The urgency to address these risks is emphasized, as nation-states are investing heavily in quantum computing research, indicating that the threat is imminent [3][23]. Regulatory and Policy Developments - The Quantum Preparedness Act, enacted in 2022, and the approval of quantum-resilient cryptographic standards by the NIST provide a framework for transitioning to more secure cryptographic methods [8][23]. - There is a growing international focus on establishing cryptographic standards, with various countries, including South Korea and China, developing their own frameworks, which will necessitate a flexible approach to cryptography [15][23]. Crypto Agility - The concept of "crypto agility" is introduced, allowing digital asset owners to adapt their cryptographic methods dynamically in response to emerging threats, contrasting with the current static approach [12][16]. - This flexibility is crucial as it enables asset owners to make timely decisions regarding their security measures, thereby enhancing the overall resilience of blockchain technologies [12][17]. Market Dynamics - The market for quantum computing companies has seen significant investment, with some stocks experiencing volatility as investors speculate on the future of this technology [20][21]. - The disparity in funding between private and public quantum research initiatives is noted, with countries like China leading in government investment, which raises concerns about national security implications [22][23].

Core Insights - Quantum computing stocks have recently experienced a decline, with Rigetti Computing (RGTI) down approximately 6%, D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) down 7%, IonQ (IONQ) down 8%, and Quantum Computing (QUBT) down 9%, amid concerns over an AI bubble [1][6] - Analysts at Wedbush have initiated coverage on these stocks with "outperform" ratings, viewing quantum computing as a transformational technology with significant growth potential in the coming years [2][3] - By the end of the decade, quantum computing companies are expected to represent a larger share of total computing expenditure, despite currently being a small segment [3] Market Significance - Quantum computing stocks have benefited from the AI boom, with expectations that rising AI demand will increase computing needs [4] - Wedbush analysts have set a target price of $60 for IonQ, indicating nearly 30% upside, a $12 target for Quantum Computing suggesting a 16% gain, and $35 targets for Rigetti and D-Wave, implying they could add roughly half their value in the next 12 months [4] - Despite recent declines, D-Wave shares have nearly tripled in value this year, Rigetti has increased by close to 50%, and IonQ has added 10%, while Quantum Computing is down nearly 40% year-to-date [5]

Economic Outlook - The modern economic family index, created to track the health of the US economy, shows signs of improvement despite previous underperformance [2] - Small caps and transportation sectors have reached all-time highs, indicating a potential disconnect between stock performance and the real economy [2] Sector Analysis - **Precious Metals**: Continued support for precious metals is expected due to factors like debt, a weakening USD, and geopolitical concerns, with a bullish outlook on silver and a price target of $4,700 for gold [4] - **Cryptocurrency**: The sector is seen as a "coiled spring" with potential upside if Bitcoin holds support at $80,000, driven by similar concerns about debt and dollar debasement [4] - **Financials**: Reduced regulation may spur M&A activity beneficial to investment banks, alongside potential lower rates and increased lending, though the industry faces generational changes towards more digital solutions [4] - **Technology**: The tech sector is currently flat, with some major stocks being over-extended. IBM is highlighted for its quantum computing initiatives, with a price target of $400 next year [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses the challenges in quantum computing regarding narratives and valuations, making it difficult to identify absolute valuation-fundamentals gaps and time entries [1] - QTUM is favored as it reduces idiosyncratic risks within traded quantum stocks, indicating a strategic choice in investment [1] - The author has extensive experience in quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management, focusing on equity valuation, market trends, and portfolio optimization [1] Group 2 - The research approach combines rigorous risk management with a long-term perspective on value creation, emphasizing macroeconomic trends, corporate earnings, and financial statement analysis [1] - The goal is to provide actionable ideas for investors seeking to outperform the market, highlighting a commitment to delivering high-quality, data-driven insights [1]

Quantum computing could be a $205 billion market within a decade, according to an analyst who recommends IonQ, Rigetti and D-Wave shares for investors willing to look past "lumpy†revenue. ...

Quantum computing 'promises a major transformation in high-performance computing tasks,' say analysts. ...

Market Analysis - The recent prolonged market consolidation with low trading volume is attributed to stable behavior from institutional investors and profit-taking by some investors due to expectation disturbances [1][3] - Low trading volume is not necessarily a negative signal; historically, low points in trading volume often represent good buying opportunities during bull markets, as seen in periods from 2005-2007 and 2019-2021 [4] - The year-end typically experiences a correction of about 5%-10% due to trading funds speculating on economic and policy expectations, with a potential for a cross-year market rally in 2026 [4][5] Industry Tracking - Quantum computing is predicted to become mainstream within two years, according to former Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger, who believes it will accelerate the decline of AI hype and that GPUs will be replaced by quantum computing by 2030 [6] - Gelsinger emphasizes that the next decade will be transformative for technology, with quantum computing moving from laboratory settings to commercial applications, impacting various sectors including finance, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, transportation, and logistics [6] - The quantum computing industry is currently in its early development stage, but its market value is gradually being recognized [7]

Core Viewpoint - AI computing power is becoming the main growth engine in the telecommunications industry, with a focus on investment opportunities in the computing power supply chain and the delivery capabilities of leading optical module manufacturers [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The computing power sector has shown significant growth, with the semiconductor equipment and AI chip industries facing increased urgency for development due to overseas restrictions, making domestic substitution a prevailing trend [1] - The domestic chip manufacturers have begun to explore solutions such as super nodes to compensate for the performance disadvantages of single cards by leveraging the advantages of multiple card configurations [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The construction of multi-card clusters raises higher demands for the quantity and quality of components, creating greater investment opportunities across the supply chain [1] - Specific segments such as liquid cooling, storage, power supply, optical modules, PCB, and quantum computing are expected to experience higher performance elasticity [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Since 2025, both Chinese and American technology stocks have performed well, with the computing power sector leading market gains, and there are emerging opportunities on the model and application side [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, the domestic computing power market is expected to thrive, with performance elasticity and investment certainty, potentially replicating the long bull market seen in U.S. stocks since 2023 [1]