1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical factors remain the focus of the oil and fat market. In March, Malaysian palm oil may continue to reduce inventory, but the inventory may remain at a relatively high level due to the high base. Domestic palm oil has a phased inventory accumulation pressure after the delayed arrival of shipments, but India's large - scale imports of palm oil and the increase in biodiesel blending profit are beneficial to palm oil demand. Domestic soybean oil is continuously reducing inventory slightly, and the overall supply is sufficient. It is still supported by the positive expectation of the US biodiesel policy. In the short term, before a large amount of Canadian rapeseed arrives, rapeseed oil maintains a slightly low - level inventory, and the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical war promotes the rapeseed oil price, and rapeseed oil may fluctuate at a high level [4][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market - Malaysia - High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil from March 1st to 15th decreased by 5.28%, a significant decline compared with the 1.55% increase in the first 10 days. The rainfall forecast indicates that the production area will be relatively dry in the next week, and the production in March is expected to recover poorly but still increase slightly to around 1.45 million tons. The current spot price of Malaysian CPO has risen to around 4,500, slightly lower than the same period last year. In terms of exports, ITS data shows that the export of Malaysian palm oil from March 1st to 15th increased by 44% month - on - month, with the growth rate expanding compared with the 38% increase in the first 10 days. It is expected that the inventory in March will be reduced to between 2.5 and 2.6 million tons, still at a high level in the same period of history [10]. 3.2 International Market - Indonesia - Starting from March 20th, Indonesia will enter the Eid al - Fitr holiday, lasting about 7 - 10 days. It is expected that the CPO reference price in Indonesia will be raised to around $995 in April, and the taxes and fees will also be raised by one level to $148, which will further increase the cost of palm oil. Affected by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the prices of crude oil and diesel have risen significantly, and the POGO spread has dropped significantly, resulting in a significant recovery of the blending profit of palm - based biodiesel, which will increase the demand for palm biodiesel. According to the HIP spread between Indonesian biodiesel and diesel, it is expected that Indonesian biodiesel will not need subsidies in April. Driven by profit, it will be beneficial to the increase in biodiesel production in March and April. As of February 12th, the cumulative biodiesel supply in Indonesia from January to February was about 1.27 million kiloliters, with a completion rate of about 85% in January, and the implementation of biodiesel is good [13]. 3.3 Domestic Palm Oil - As of March 13, 2026 (Week 11), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 842,000 tons, an increase of 29,900 tons or 3.68% compared with last week. The palm oil inventory has been continuously increasing and is at a relatively high - level in the same period of history. The origin's quotation is stable, the import profit of the futures market is inverted by about 100, and the basis is running weakly and stably. According to incomplete statistics, there were 6 ship purchases this week. On the demand side, the spot market trading is light, and downstream buyers have a low acceptance of high prices, and the procurement is mainly for rigid demand. In the short term, affected by the sharp rise in crude oil, the overall oil and fat market has risen driven by the increase in biodiesel demand. Considering that geopolitical factors may be volatile, it is expected that palm oil will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [16]. 3.4 Domestic Soybean Oil - As of March 13, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 890,900 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons or 1.66% compared with last week. The soybean oil inventory is still at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The spot basis of soybean oil varies in different regions, with the basis in the north being stable and slightly strong, and that in East and South China being stable. The spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has oscillated and dropped to around - 980, the spot trading volume of soybean oil has increased slightly, and the market trading sentiment has warmed up. The oil mill's crushing and operation rate is gradually rising, and the supply of soybean oil is increasing. It is understood that there is a small amount of domestic soybean oil exports this week, and overall, the soybean oil inventory will continue to remain at a relatively high level. Fundamentally, the domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, but it is supported by the positive expectation of the US biodiesel policy, and driven by geopolitical factors, soybean oil follows the overall oil and fat market to fluctuate at a high level [19]. 3.5 Domestic Rapeseed Oil - As of March 13, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 151,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons compared with last week. As of March 13, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 282,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons, at a relatively neutral and slightly low level in the same period of history. The FOB quotation of European rapeseed oil is stable at around $1,150, and the import profit of European rapeseed oil has an inverted spread that has expanded to around - 1,500. After the Spring Festival, the oil mills have increased their operation, and the supply of rapeseed oil has increased. However, the downstream consumption is in the seasonal off - season, the market demand is weak overall, and the transactions are mainly for a small number of long - term basis contracts. The basis of rapeseed oil is stable. In the short term, rapeseed oil maintains a slightly low - level inventory. Before a large amount of Canadian rapeseed arrives and with the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical war and the interruption of Dubai rapeseed transportation, the rapeseed oil price is promoted to a certain extent, and rapeseed oil may be prone to rise and difficult to fall. However, if the Middle - East war weakens later and a large amount of Canadian rapeseed arrives in April, the supply pressure of long - term rapeseed oil will increase, and the upward pressure on rapeseed oil prices will also be prominent [22]. 3.6 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: In the short term, geopolitical disturbances continue, and oil and fat may fluctuate at a high level. - Arbitrage strategy: Consider the opportunity of reverse arbitrage for P5 - 9 and Y5 - 9 when the price is high. - Option strategy: Wait and see. (The views are for reference only and not as a basis for trading) [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, due to the significant increase in crude oil prices, the blending profits of US soybean oil and palm oil for biodiesel have improved significantly, leading to an expected increase in the demand for biodiesel from oils and fats. The increase in freight costs caused by geopolitical factors has also raised the cost of oils and fats, making the overall price of oils and fats likely to rise and difficult to fall [5][25]. - For palm oil, Malaysian palm oil continued to reduce production and inventory in February. With a high base, the inventory may remain at a relatively high level. There is a phased inventory accumulation pressure for domestic palm oil after the delayed arrival of shipments. However, India's large imports of palm oil and the increase in biodiesel blending profits are beneficial to palm oil demand [5][25]. - Domestic soybean oil has been experiencing a slight reduction in inventory, but the supply is sufficient. Supported by the positive expectation of US biodiesel policy and the overall rise of oils and fats driven by geopolitical factors, soybean oil follows the upward trend [5][25]. - In the short term, before a large amount of Canadian rapeseed arrives, rapeseed oil maintains a slightly low - level inventory. The ongoing Middle - East geopolitical war and the interruption of Dubai rapeseed oil transportation have promoted the price of rapeseed oil, which may continue to fluctuate upwards [5][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Market - Malaysian Palm Oil - MPOB's February palm oil supply - demand data shows that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil decreased to 2.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.9%. Production decreased by 18.6% to 1.28 million tons, and exports decreased by 22% to 1.13 million tons. The report's impact was neutral [8]. - High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 10 increased by 1.55% month - on - month compared to the same period last month, and exports in the first 15 days of March increased by 44% month - on - month. As the producing areas enter the traditional production - increasing season, the inventory reduction speed is slow, and the high inventory is expected to continue for some time [8]. - Due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, crude oil prices have risen significantly. Recently, Indonesia's B50 biodiesel has been mentioned again. Indonesia indicates that there are still 10,000 kilometers left for the B50 road test, and the test is expected to be completed no earlier than June or July this year. In addition, the Indonesian president requires that domestic demand be prioritized before palm oil exports. Based on this, palm oil is expected to remain prone to rising and difficult to fall in the short term [8]. International Market - Indian Edible Oil - SEA data shows that India's edible oil imports in February decreased by 1.4% month - on - month to 1.29 million tons but were still at a high level in the same period of history. Palm oil imports increased by 10% month - on - month to 850,000 tons, reaching a six - month high; soybean oil imports increased by 8.7% month - on - month to 300,000 tons; sunflower oil imports decreased by 45% month - on - month to 150,000 tons, at a relatively low level in the same period of history [14]. - In terms of inventory, India's edible oil port inventory decreased slightly to 820,000 tons in February, higher than the five - year average, while the channel inventory increased significantly to 1.05 million tons but was still at a relatively low level in the same period. Palm oil inventory increased to 520,000 tons, while soybean and sunflower oil inventories decreased [14]. - Currently, India has occasional import profits for soybean oil and sunflower oil, but the international price difference between soybean - palm and sunflower - palm oils is at a relatively neutral level in the same period of history. The absolute price of palm oil is relatively lower and more cost - effective. Recently, there are rumors in the market that India has washed some far - month soybean oil shipments. It is expected that India will appropriately increase palm oil imports [14]. Domestic Palm Oil - As of March 6, 2026 (week 10), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 812,100 tons, an increase of 25,400 tons compared to last week. Palm oil inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The origin's quotation remained stable, the盘面 import profit was inverted by about 160, the basis was stable and slightly weak, and the port inventory pressure was high [17]. - On the demand side, after the Spring Festival, terminal consumption was weak, downstream acceptance of high prices was low, and purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The overall market transaction was light. In the short term, affected by the significant increase in crude oil prices, the demand for oils and fats in biodiesel applications is expected to increase significantly. At the same time, the increase in freight costs due to geopolitical factors has also raised the cost of oils and fats, further supporting the price increase of oils and fats. If the Middle - East war weakens in the future, oils and fats may fluctuate at a high level. Continued attention should be paid to Middle - East geopolitical changes [17]. Domestic Soybean Oil - As of March 6, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 905,900 tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons compared to last week, a decrease of 0.81%. Currently, soybean oil inventory is still at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the basis of soybean oil has decreased steadily [20]. - After the Spring Festival, the purchasing and selling atmosphere has not fully recovered. The supply expectations for February and March are high, causing short - term pressure on the basis. This week, the total trading volume of bulk soybean oil in key domestic oil mills was 210,000 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 40,000 tons. The market trading volume has increased. It is understood that there was a small amount of domestic soybean oil exports this week. Overall, the soybean oil inventory is expected to remain at a relatively high level. Fundamentally, the domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient. However, supported by the positive expectation of US biodiesel policy and the overall rise of oils and fats driven by geopolitical factors, soybean oil follows the overall upward trend of oils and fats [20]. Domestic Rapeseed Oil - As of March 6, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 121,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared to last week. As of March 6, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 263,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons, at a relatively neutral and slightly low level in the same period of history. The FOB quotation of European rapeseed oil remained stable at around $1080, and the import profit of European rapeseed oil was inverted and expanded to around - 1500. The Ministry of Commerce announced a 5.9% anti - dumping duty on rapeseed imported from Canada. Before this, China had purchased about a dozen ships of Canadian rapeseed. After the Spring Festival, the operation of oil mills increased, and the supply of rapeseed oil may increase. However, downstream consumption is in the seasonal off - season, and the overall market demand is weak. It is expected that the basis of rapeseed oil will show a weakening trend [23]. - In addition, the Middle - East geopolitical war has affected rapeseed oil transportation. The conventional transportation route of Dubai rapeseed oil needs to pass through the Strait of Hormuz to reach China. In 2025, the proportion of rapeseed oil imported from the UAE by China decreased to 12%. Russian, Belarusian, and Dubai rapeseed oils together account for nearly 90% of China's total rapeseed oil imports. Overall, in the short term, before a large amount of Canadian rapeseed arrives, rapeseed oil maintains a slightly low - level inventory. The ongoing Middle - East geopolitical war and the interruption of Dubai rapeseed oil transportation have promoted the price of rapeseed oil, which may continue to fluctuate upwards. However, if the Middle - East war weakens in the future and a large amount of Canadian rapeseed arrives in April, the supply pressure of far - month rapeseed oil will increase, and the upward pressure on rapeseed oil prices will also become prominent [23]. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: In the short term, due to continuous geopolitical disturbances, oils and fats are likely to rise and difficult to fall [27]. - Arbitrage strategy: Wait and see [27]. - Option strategy: Wait and see [27].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The price of soybean oil is supported by the cost of US soybeans and will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, Malaysian palm oil, and CBOT soybean oil futures are presented. For example, the closing price of palm oil futures (day session) is 9,684 yuan/ton with a 1.66% increase, and the closing price of soybean oil futures (day session) is 8,632 yuan/ton with a 0.72% increase [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open - interest changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures are provided. For instance, the trading volume of palm oil futures is 688,279 lots with a change of 180,513 lots, and the open interest is 338,494 lots with a change of - 881 lots [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and Malaysian palm oil are given. For example, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,780 yuan/ton with a 250 - yuan increase [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions is presented. For example, the basis of palm oil in Guangdong is 96 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spreads between different futures contracts, such as the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures, soybean oil and palm oil futures, and the 5 - 9 spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are provided [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 increased by 7.3% year - on - year to 51.66 million tons, and the inventory at the end of 2025 was 2.07 million tons, a 25% decline from the previous month. Producers are trying to increase production in 2026, but weather challenges may pose obstacles [3]. - Brazil needs to complete a technical feasibility study before deciding whether to increase the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from the current 15% [5]. - Argentina's 2025/26 soybean crop conditions have improved for the second consecutive week due to recent rainfall in major planting areas [5]. - Brazil's 2026/27 soybean planting area is not expected to decline despite low production margins [5]. - The US Climate Prediction Center expects the La Nina event to gradually turn into an ENSO - neutral state in the next month, with a 55% probability of being in a neutral state from May to July this year [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is both 1 [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major domestic oils are oscillating. During the Spring Festival, the strengthening of crude oil boosted international vegetable oil prices, and the rise in CBOT oil prices led to a short - term oscillating and strengthening trend in domestic oil prices [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8,824.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +126 yuan and a change rate of +1.45% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,140.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +86.00 yuan and a change rate of +1.07% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,200.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +162.00 yuan and a change rate of +1.79% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,810.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +150.00 yuan and a change rate of +1.73%. The spot basis was P05 - 14.00, with a month - on - month change of +24.00 yuan - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,460.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +140.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of +1.68%. The spot basis was Y05 + 320.00, with a month - on - month change of +54.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,950.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +160.00 yuan and a change rate of +1.63%. The spot basis was OI05 + 750.00, with a month - on - month change of - 2.00 yuan [1] Market Consultation - Canadian rapeseed (March shipment): C&F price was 564 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed (May shipment): C&F price was 572 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day - Argentine soybean oil (April shipment): C&F price was 1,202 dollars/ton, up 9 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Argentine soybean oil (June shipment): C&F price was 1,171 dollars/ton, up 7 dollars/ton from the previous trading day - Imported rapeseed oil C&F quotes: Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1,080 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1,060 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - US Gulf soybeans (April shipment): C&F price was 508 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day; US West soybeans (April shipment): C&F price was 502 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day; Brazilian soybeans (April shipment): C&F price was 463 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - Imported soybean premium quotes: Mexican Gulf (April shipment) was 231 cents/bushel, down 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; US West Coast (April shipment) was 215 cents/bushel, down 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; Brazilian ports (April shipment) was 112 cents/bushel, up 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] Group 4: Figures - There are 30 figures in the report, covering various aspects such as the average price, closing price, basis, spread, profit, output, volume, and inventory of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [5]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market experienced fluctuations following the Spring Festival holiday, with international soybean futures showing no clear direction, while palm oil futures in Malaysia saw significant increases [3][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The main soybean contract on the CBOT showed a slight upward trend of approximately 4% as of February 23, while Malaysian palm oil futures rose by 68% during the holiday period [3][10]. - International crude oil prices surged over 2% last Thursday, reaching a six-month high due to increased military activities between the US and Iran, which raised concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East [3][10]. - The market is awaiting the Canadian canola anti-dumping arbitration announcement from the Ministry of Commerce on March 9, which could influence market volatility [3][10]. Group 2: Supply and Production Insights - Data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Producers' Association indicated a 58% decrease in palm oil production from February 1-10, with a further decline of 22.24% reported for February 1-20 [4][10]. - The Brazilian soybean harvest is ongoing, with limited rainfall in the central region, potentially accelerating field operations [3][10]. - The US Environmental Protection Agency is expected to submit a proposal for the 2026 biofuel blending mandate, which could positively impact soybean oil demand if progress is made during the holiday period [3][10]. Group 3: Export and Inventory Trends - Malaysian palm oil exports for February 1-15 were reported at 393,853 tons, a decrease of 0% compared to the previous month, while exports for February 1-20 were down by 8.9% and 12.6% according to different agencies [8][10]. - Domestic oilseed inventories were higher than the previous year before the Spring Festival, with factories gradually resuming production post-holiday [10][11]. - The market is expected to face a seasonal consumption lull in March, with increased soybean imports and a potential rise in processing rates at oil mills [11]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The oilseed market is characterized by mixed signals, with the US biodiesel policy providing long-term support, while the relationship between the US and Canada may impact canola supply dynamics [5][11]. - The recent decline in palm oil production and export data may lead to upward pressure on oil prices if the trend continues [5][11]. - The market outlook remains uncertain, with the need for confirmation of the biodiesel policy's impact and tightening fundamentals in palm oil production to support bullish sentiment [5][11].

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil leads the oilseed sector with a price increase of over 2% in the main contract, driven by seasonal production cuts overseas and domestic pre-holiday stocking for the Spring Festival, indicating a short-term bullish outlook for palm oil [3][7]. Group 1: Policy and Market Dynamics - Oilseed policies are centered around Indonesia and the United States, with Indonesia canceling the B50 biodiesel plan and extending the B40 plan until 2026, leading to reduced demand expectations [3][7]. - The U.S. biodiesel policy is set to be announced soon, which is expected to boost vegetable oil demand, with plans to finalize the biodiesel blending obligation of 5.2 to 5.6 billion gallons by March 2026, while also abandoning the RINs import reduction rule [3][7]. Group 2: Production and Export Trends - Seasonal production cuts have begun, with the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) estimating a 14.43% month-on-month decrease in palm oil production from January 1 to 20 [3][7]. - High-frequency data indicates a month-on-month increase in palm oil exports of 7.97% to 9.97% from January 1 to 25 [3][7]. Group 3: Domestic Market Conditions - Domestic pre-holiday stocking and the release of spot demand are pushing oilseeds into a destocking phase, contributing to a collective rise in domestic oilseed futures [3][7]. - Palm oil has reached a three-month high, soybean oil a five-month high, and rapeseed oil a six-week high in the domestic market [3][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The overall edible oils in China showed a volatile trend this week. The total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils continued to decline slightly, but the overall inventory was still sufficient [4]. - Malaysian palm oil has entered the production - reduction period, with expected continuous production and inventory reduction in the later stage, but the inventory - reduction speed is slow, and high inventory may persist [4][28]. - Domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, but the overall inventory is not expected to be tight. There are uncertainties in subsequent customs policies, and short - term performance is relatively good, but there are no prominent contradictions currently [4][23][28]. - Sino - Canadian relations show signs of improvement. Importing rapeseed for oil extraction is profitable at current prices. However, even if relations ease, it will take time for rapeseed to arrive at ports. In the short term, the near - month rapeseed oil contracts have both pressure and support [4][26][28]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation International Market - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Estimated that the production in December may drop to 1.76 million tons, exports may slightly increase to 1.25 million tons, and inventory may accumulate to nearly 3 million tons. High inventory will make subsequent inventory reduction slow, and the stock - to - sales ratio has increased significantly. The RBD price is around $1020, showing a volatile downward trend, and the decline space is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the MPOB report on Monday [5][8]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: The CPO spot price remains high at around $850, and the inventory is continuously low, with a firm price. Due to financial constraints, Indonesia may increase the palm oil export tax to support its biodiesel mission and may confiscate an additional 5 million hectares of palm oil plantations this year, causing palm oil prices to rise recently [8]. - **Indian Palm Oil**: The market expects India's edible oil imports to increase to over 17 million tons in the 25/26 fiscal year, with palm oil imports increasing from 7.5 million to 9.3 million tons. It is estimated that India will import only 500,000 tons of palm oil in December, while soybean oil and sunflower oil imports will increase significantly. The international price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is widening, and palm oil's cost - effectiveness is emerging, which is conducive to increased palm oil procurement to some extent [14]. Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 726,700 tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons from the previous week, a decline of 1.01%. The basis is stable. The origin's quotation is stable, and the import profit inversion has narrowed, but domestic procurement enthusiasm is low. It is expected that inventory reduction will start in December, but the speed will be slow [17]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.081 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous week, a decline of 0.73%. The inventory has reached an inflection point, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. The peak of soybean arrivals in China has passed, and domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to gradually decrease after October, but the overall inventory will not be tight [23]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of January 2, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 273,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week. The 3 - 5 spread has weakened. Sino - Canadian relations are improving, and importing rapeseed for oil extraction is profitable. In the long - term, rapeseed oil is bearish, but in the short - term, the near - month contracts have support at the bottom and pressure at the top [26]. Strategy Recommendation - **Unilateral Strategy**: Edible oils are expected to continue to rebound in the short - term, but the rebound height may be limited, and the overall trend may be volatile. For palm oil, consider short - selling at the upper limit of the range. Soybean oil lacks driving factors and may follow the overall trend of edible oils. Rapeseed oil's core issue lies in policy changes, so it is recommended to wait and see [30]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [30]. - **Options Strategy**: Wait and see [30]. Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - **Malaysian Palm Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on monthly production, exports, and inventory of Malaysian palm oil are presented, showing trends over multiple years [35][36][37]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on monthly production, exports, and inventory of Indonesian palm oil are presented, showing trends over multiple years [40][41][43]. - **International Soybean Oil Market**: Data on NOPA's U.S. soybean crushing volume, U.S. soybean oil inventory, Brazilian and Argentine soybean crushing volumes and soybean oil inventories are presented, showing trends over multiple years [45]. - **Indian Edible Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on India's monthly edible oil consumption, imports, and port inventory are presented, including data on palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil imports, showing trends over multiple years [49][50][52]. - **Domestic Edible Oil Import Profit**: Data on the import profit of European rapeseed oil, domestic rapeseed oil, and 24 - degree palm oil are presented, showing trends over multiple years [61][62][63]. - **Domestic Soybean Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on domestic soybean weekly crushing volume, soybean oil weekly consumption, and trading volume are presented, showing trends over multiple years [65]. - **Domestic Palm Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on domestic palm oil monthly import volume, monthly sales volume, and weekly trading volume are presented, showing trends over multiple years [67]. - **Domestic Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on domestic rapeseed weekly crushing volume, rapeseed oil import volume, and monthly consumption are presented, showing trends over multiple years [69]. - **Domestic Edible Oil Spot Basis**: Data on the spot basis of first - grade soybean oil, 24 - degree palm oil, and domestic triple - refined rapeseed oil are presented, showing trends over multiple years [71][72][73]. - **Domestic Edible Oil Commercial Inventory**: Data on domestic soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and total edible oil commercial inventories are presented, showing trends over multiple years [75][77][79].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The U.S. soybean crush volume in November 2025 is expected to decline by 3.2% from October's record high but increase by 14.0% from November 2024 [1]. - The estimated soybean oil inventory of NOPA members as of November 30, 2025, is expected to reach a seven - month high, up 7.9% from the end of October and 29.9% from the previous year [1]. - From November 1 - 20, 2025, the U.S. 2025/26 soybean export sales are expected to net increase by 80 - 300 million tons, with 0 tons for 2026 - 27 [1]. - The 2025/26 global soybean export volume is expected to increase mainly driven by Brazil, while the exports of the U.S. and Argentina may decline [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 10, 2025, increased by 46.98% compared to the same period last month [1]. Group 3: Summary by Category Overnight Market Information - U.S. November 2025 soybean crush volume is estimated to be 220.285 million bushels, with an estimated range of 213 million to 224.332 million bushels and a median of 220.85 million bushels [1]. - As of November 30, 2025, NOPA's soybean oil inventory is expected to be 1.408 billion pounds, with an estimated range of 1.32 billion to 1.508 billion pounds and a median of 1.4 billion pounds [1]. - From November 1 - 20, 2025, U.S. 2025/26 soybean export sales are expected to net increase by 80 - 300 million tons, 2025 - 26 U.S. soybean meal export sales by 10 - 45 million tons, and 2025 - 26 U.S. soybean oil export sales by 0.5 - 2.5 million tons [1]. - In 2025/26, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach a record 110 million tons, up 6.7% from 2024/25, and production is expected to reach 178.3 million tons, up 4.1% from the previous year [1]. - In 2025/26, the U.S. soybean exports are expected to be 43 million tons, down 14% from 2024/25, and Argentina's soybean exports are likely to decline due to reduced production and increased crush volume [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 10, 2025, were 280,048 tons, up 46.98% from the same period last month [1]. Spot Price - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from December 8 - 12, 2025, are presented in a table [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent core events and market review show that the export of Indonesian palm oil from January to October 2025 increased by 7.83% year - on - year, and traders expect India's edible oil imports in November to decline by 11.5% month - on - month. This week, the performance of oils and fats was significantly differentiated. Palm oil showed an overall oscillating upward trend, while rapeseed oil fluctuated and declined after reaching the upper limit of the range. [4] - Malaysia's palm oil may experience production cuts and inventory accumulation in November. Later, as the production areas gradually enter the production - cut season, its inventory will gradually decrease, but the speed is expected to be slow. Indonesia's inventory remains at a relatively low level, and the origin quotations are stable with a slight increase. Currently, the inventory of soybean oil has reached an inflection point and is gradually decreasing, but the market lacks driving forces, and its price mainly fluctuates following the overall trend of oils and fats. In the short term, due to insufficient domestic rapeseed supply and limited rapeseed oil imports, domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline, which still provides some support for rapeseed oil prices. [4][25] - Overall, short - term oils and fats lack continuous positive driving forces and are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. [27] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market 3.1.1 Malaysia's Palm Oil - Estimated institutions predict that Malaysia's palm oil production in November will decrease by 3% month - on - month to 1.98 million tons, exports will sharply decrease by 15% to 1.44 million tons, and inventory will accumulate to around 2.7 million tons, reaching a high level in the same period of history. Attention should be paid to next week's MPOB report. [9] 3.1.2 Indonesia's Palm Oil - Indonesian Bureau of Statistics data shows that the export of Indonesian palm oil in October was 1.91 million tons, and from January to October, the export volume was 19.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.83%. ITS data shows that the export volume in October was around 2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28%, but the overall data from ITS shows a decreasing trend. From January to October, the export volume was 20.35 million tons, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. In terms of different countries, the export volume to Africa increased by about 30%. [9] 3.1.3 India's Edible Oil Market - Traders expect India's edible oil imports in November to decline by 11.5% month - on - month to 1.18 million tons, reaching a seven - month low. Among them, palm oil imports slightly increased by 4.6% month - on - month to 630,000 tons, soybean oil imports may decrease by 12% to 400,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 44% to 145,000 tons. The market expects that India's edible oil imports in the 25/26 season will continue to increase to over 17 million tons. Among them, soybean oil imports may decrease year - on - year but remain at a relatively high level, while palm oil imports will increase from 7.5 million to 9.3 million tons, showing a large increase. There are rumors that India has cancelled about 70,000 tons of soybean oil orders originally scheduled for delivery from December to January. Currently, the international price difference between soybean oil and palm oil continues to widen, and the cost - effectiveness of palm oil is gradually emerging, which is conducive to an increase in palm oil procurement to some extent. [12] 3.2 Domestic Market 3.2.1 Domestic Palm Oil - As of November 28, 2025 (week 48), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 653,500 tons, a decrease of 13,600 tons or 2.04% compared with last week. Recently, palm oil inventory is at a neutral level in the same period of history. The origin quotations are relatively stable, and the inversion of import profits has narrowed to around - 200. There are rumors of two ship purchases this week. The basis is stable with a slight decline. In the short term, oils and fats lack continuous positive driving forces. Palm oil is in a long - short game between the positive factor of production cuts caused by flood impacts and the suppression of relatively high inventory. Overall, palm oil is still in a range - bound bottom - grinding stage in the short term, and one can consider buying on dips and conducting high - selling and low - buying range operations. [15] 3.2.2 Domestic Soybean Oil - As of November 28, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.1788 million tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons or 0.09% compared with last week. Currently, soybean oil inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, but the inventory inflection point has been reached, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. Domestic demand is average, and trading has become dull. Traders mainly execute contracts. Later, as the arrival of soybeans gradually decreases and soybean crushing volume declines from a high level, soybean oil inventory may slightly decrease, but overall inventory is still sufficient. In the short term, domestic soybean oil supply is abundant, and the price increase is relatively weak, lacking obvious driving forces. It is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. One can try to go long with a light position after the price stabilizes following a pullback. Attention should be paid to next week's USDA report. [20] 3.2.3 Domestic Rapeseed Oil - As of November 28, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 368,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons compared with last week. It is still at a high level in the same period of history, but the inventory is continuously decreasing marginally. The FOB quotation of European rapeseed oil remains stable at around $1,100, and the inversion of import profits for European rapeseed oil has widened to around - 1,000. There are rumors of rapeseed oil imports this week. The basis of rapeseed oil remains at a high level, and the quotations in Sichuan and Chongqing regions are relatively high, but the downstream acceptance is general. It is expected that the inventory - decreasing trend in coastal areas will continue. In the short term, the overall increase of oils and fats is weak. Currently, the fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much. Due to insufficient rapeseed supply, high import costs, and the continuous marginal decrease of rapeseed oil inventory, there is still some support for rapeseed oil prices. Without a full - scale relaxation of rapeseed procurement, rapeseed oil may maintain range - bound oscillations. One can consider buying on dips at the lower limit of the range for OI03 or 05 contracts and conducting high - selling and low - buying range operations. [23] 3.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral strategy: Short - term oils and fats lack continuous positive driving forces and are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. One can consider high - selling and low - buying range operations. - Arbitrage strategy: Wait and see. - Option strategy: Wait and see. [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - MPOB's December palm oil supply - demand data and USDA's monthly report are neutral to bullish, and the oil market may experience a weak rebound but will likely remain volatile in the short term [4][19]. - Due to low inventories in Malaysia, Indonesia, and China, as well as import profit inversion in China, palm oil may be supported; domestic soybean oil inventories are neutral and may be prone to decline; domestic rapeseed oil supply remains abundant [4][11][14][17]. Summary by Directory International Market - Malaysian Palm Oil - In December, Malaysian palm oil stocks decreased to 1709000 tons, a 6.91% month - on - month reduction. Production dropped 8.3% to 1487000 tons, exports declined about 10% to 1340000 tons, and consumption increased significantly to 310000 tons. The overall report impact was neutral [7]. - ITS predicted that Malaysian palm oil exports in the first 10 days of January decreased 21.4% month - on - month. Future rainfall in the producing areas is normal, and short - term supply tightness may continue, with stocks likely to keep decreasing [7]. - Indonesia's B40 will be fully implemented in February, with a transition period to consume B35 inventory and adjust equipment. Restrictions on POME exports may increase CPO usage [7]. International Market - US Soybeans - USDA lowered the new - crop soybean yield per acre in the US to 50.7 bushels, with production dropping to 4.366 billion bushels. The inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased from 10.81% to 8.74%, tightening supply expectations. South American soybean production is still expected to be high [8]. - The US proposed 45Z, which may affect UCO imports [8]. Domestic Palm Oil - As of January 3, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 501700 tons, a 5.05% decrease from the previous week. The inventory is at a relatively low level historically. The import profit inversion has widened, and the basis is stable [11]. Domestic Soybean Oil - As of January 3, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 956500 tons, a 1.01% decrease from the previous week. The basis has declined slightly. The oil mill's soybean crushing volume and开机率 decreased. Spot market trading has become lighter, and inventory is likely to decline [14]. Domestic Rapeseed Oil - Last week, the coastal rapeseed crushing volume was 122500 tons, with a开机率 of 32.65%. As of January 3, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory was 484000 tons, an increase of 13000 tons from the previous week. Supply is abundant, the basis is stable at a low level, and trading is light [17]. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: The oil market is expected to remain volatile with a possible weak rebound. Control risks [21]. - Arbitrage strategy: Consider going long on P3 - 5 and P5 - 9 spreads at low levels [21]. - Option strategy: Stay on the sidelines [21].