综合来看，油脂市场多空并存，首先，美国生物柴油政策暂提供着重要长期支撑，当前预计2026年美国 生柴掺混义务量大幅增长，对油脂油料板块整体产生了一定的下方支撑，还需要紧盯美国RVO终案落 地进展。对于菜系方面，中加关系缓和，我国菜系原料供应紧张的格局面临被打破的格局，目前的变量 在于美加关系对我国菜系原料进口的影响，如果不出现较大变数，近强远弱的格局或逐渐形成，菜系上 方的压制力量不容忽视。棕榈油方面，马来最新的1月高频产量数据出现一定回落，但出口数据的环比 收紧幅度并不尽如人意，未来产地库存去化的节奏仍需进一步观察，如果产量降幅持续扩大，对油脂价 格的提振或逐渐明确。节后市场来看，假期期间原油价格的上行以及生柴政策可能出现进展的乐观预期 导致国内油脂油料节后开盘表现偏强。但目前基本面多空交织，提振力量能否支撑其持续上行，我们需 要等待美国生物柴油政策提供的油脂需求的中长期支撑最终落地，以及棕榈油产地基本面环比明显收 紧，才能给油脂多头更多的底气。 免责声明 本报告基于已公开的信息编制，我们力求信息及时、准确、完整，但不保证信息的绝对准确和完整。本 报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。投资 ...

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil leads the oilseed sector with a price increase of over 2% in the main contract, driven by seasonal production cuts overseas and domestic pre-holiday stocking for the Spring Festival, indicating a short-term bullish outlook for palm oil [3][7]. Group 1: Policy and Market Dynamics - Oilseed policies are centered around Indonesia and the United States, with Indonesia canceling the B50 biodiesel plan and extending the B40 plan until 2026, leading to reduced demand expectations [3][7]. - The U.S. biodiesel policy is set to be announced soon, which is expected to boost vegetable oil demand, with plans to finalize the biodiesel blending obligation of 5.2 to 5.6 billion gallons by March 2026, while also abandoning the RINs import reduction rule [3][7]. Group 2: Production and Export Trends - Seasonal production cuts have begun, with the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) estimating a 14.43% month-on-month decrease in palm oil production from January 1 to 20 [3][7]. - High-frequency data indicates a month-on-month increase in palm oil exports of 7.97% to 9.97% from January 1 to 25 [3][7]. Group 3: Domestic Market Conditions - Domestic pre-holiday stocking and the release of spot demand are pushing oilseeds into a destocking phase, contributing to a collective rise in domestic oilseed futures [3][7]. - Palm oil has reached a three-month high, soybean oil a five-month high, and rapeseed oil a six-week high in the domestic market [3][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The overall edible oils in China showed a volatile trend this week. The total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils continued to decline slightly, but the overall inventory was still sufficient [4]. - Malaysian palm oil has entered the production - reduction period, with expected continuous production and inventory reduction in the later stage, but the inventory - reduction speed is slow, and high inventory may persist [4][28]. - Domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, but the overall inventory is not expected to be tight. There are uncertainties in subsequent customs policies, and short - term performance is relatively good, but there are no prominent contradictions currently [4][23][28]. - Sino - Canadian relations show signs of improvement. Importing rapeseed for oil extraction is profitable at current prices. However, even if relations ease, it will take time for rapeseed to arrive at ports. In the short term, the near - month rapeseed oil contracts have both pressure and support [4][26][28]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation International Market - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Estimated that the production in December may drop to 1.76 million tons, exports may slightly increase to 1.25 million tons, and inventory may accumulate to nearly 3 million tons. High inventory will make subsequent inventory reduction slow, and the stock - to - sales ratio has increased significantly. The RBD price is around $1020, showing a volatile downward trend, and the decline space is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the MPOB report on Monday [5][8]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: The CPO spot price remains high at around $850, and the inventory is continuously low, with a firm price. Due to financial constraints, Indonesia may increase the palm oil export tax to support its biodiesel mission and may confiscate an additional 5 million hectares of palm oil plantations this year, causing palm oil prices to rise recently [8]. - **Indian Palm Oil**: The market expects India's edible oil imports to increase to over 17 million tons in the 25/26 fiscal year, with palm oil imports increasing from 7.5 million to 9.3 million tons. It is estimated that India will import only 500,000 tons of palm oil in December, while soybean oil and sunflower oil imports will increase significantly. The international price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is widening, and palm oil's cost - effectiveness is emerging, which is conducive to increased palm oil procurement to some extent [14]. Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 726,700 tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons from the previous week, a decline of 1.01%. The basis is stable. The origin's quotation is stable, and the import profit inversion has narrowed, but domestic procurement enthusiasm is low. It is expected that inventory reduction will start in December, but the speed will be slow [17]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.081 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous week, a decline of 0.73%. The inventory has reached an inflection point, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. The peak of soybean arrivals in China has passed, and domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to gradually decrease after October, but the overall inventory will not be tight [23]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of January 2, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 273,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week. The 3 - 5 spread has weakened. Sino - Canadian relations are improving, and importing rapeseed for oil extraction is profitable. In the long - term, rapeseed oil is bearish, but in the short - term, the near - month contracts have support at the bottom and pressure at the top [26]. Strategy Recommendation - **Unilateral Strategy**: Edible oils are expected to continue to rebound in the short - term, but the rebound height may be limited, and the overall trend may be volatile. For palm oil, consider short - selling at the upper limit of the range. Soybean oil lacks driving factors and may follow the overall trend of edible oils. Rapeseed oil's core issue lies in policy changes, so it is recommended to wait and see [30]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [30]. - **Options Strategy**: Wait and see [30]. Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - **Malaysian Palm Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on monthly production, exports, and inventory of Malaysian palm oil are presented, showing trends over multiple years [35][36][37]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on monthly production, exports, and inventory of Indonesian palm oil are presented, showing trends over multiple years [40][41][43]. - **International Soybean Oil Market**: Data on NOPA's U.S. soybean crushing volume, U.S. soybean oil inventory, Brazilian and Argentine soybean crushing volumes and soybean oil inventories are presented, showing trends over multiple years [45]. - **Indian Edible Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on India's monthly edible oil consumption, imports, and port inventory are presented, including data on palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil imports, showing trends over multiple years [49][50][52]. - **Domestic Edible Oil Import Profit**: Data on the import profit of European rapeseed oil, domestic rapeseed oil, and 24 - degree palm oil are presented, showing trends over multiple years [61][62][63]. - **Domestic Soybean Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on domestic soybean weekly crushing volume, soybean oil weekly consumption, and trading volume are presented, showing trends over multiple years [65]. - **Domestic Palm Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on domestic palm oil monthly import volume, monthly sales volume, and weekly trading volume are presented, showing trends over multiple years [67]. - **Domestic Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on domestic rapeseed weekly crushing volume, rapeseed oil import volume, and monthly consumption are presented, showing trends over multiple years [69]. - **Domestic Edible Oil Spot Basis**: Data on the spot basis of first - grade soybean oil, 24 - degree palm oil, and domestic triple - refined rapeseed oil are presented, showing trends over multiple years [71][72][73]. - **Domestic Edible Oil Commercial Inventory**: Data on domestic soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and total edible oil commercial inventories are presented, showing trends over multiple years [75][77][79].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The U.S. soybean crush volume in November 2025 is expected to decline by 3.2% from October's record high but increase by 14.0% from November 2024 [1]. - The estimated soybean oil inventory of NOPA members as of November 30, 2025, is expected to reach a seven - month high, up 7.9% from the end of October and 29.9% from the previous year [1]. - From November 1 - 20, 2025, the U.S. 2025/26 soybean export sales are expected to net increase by 80 - 300 million tons, with 0 tons for 2026 - 27 [1]. - The 2025/26 global soybean export volume is expected to increase mainly driven by Brazil, while the exports of the U.S. and Argentina may decline [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 10, 2025, increased by 46.98% compared to the same period last month [1]. Group 3: Summary by Category Overnight Market Information - U.S. November 2025 soybean crush volume is estimated to be 220.285 million bushels, with an estimated range of 213 million to 224.332 million bushels and a median of 220.85 million bushels [1]. - As of November 30, 2025, NOPA's soybean oil inventory is expected to be 1.408 billion pounds, with an estimated range of 1.32 billion to 1.508 billion pounds and a median of 1.4 billion pounds [1]. - From November 1 - 20, 2025, U.S. 2025/26 soybean export sales are expected to net increase by 80 - 300 million tons, 2025 - 26 U.S. soybean meal export sales by 10 - 45 million tons, and 2025 - 26 U.S. soybean oil export sales by 0.5 - 2.5 million tons [1]. - In 2025/26, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach a record 110 million tons, up 6.7% from 2024/25, and production is expected to reach 178.3 million tons, up 4.1% from the previous year [1]. - In 2025/26, the U.S. soybean exports are expected to be 43 million tons, down 14% from 2024/25, and Argentina's soybean exports are likely to decline due to reduced production and increased crush volume [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 10, 2025, were 280,048 tons, up 46.98% from the same period last month [1]. Spot Price - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from December 8 - 12, 2025, are presented in a table [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent core events and market review show that the export of Indonesian palm oil from January to October 2025 increased by 7.83% year - on - year, and traders expect India's edible oil imports in November to decline by 11.5% month - on - month. This week, the performance of oils and fats was significantly differentiated. Palm oil showed an overall oscillating upward trend, while rapeseed oil fluctuated and declined after reaching the upper limit of the range. [4] - Malaysia's palm oil may experience production cuts and inventory accumulation in November. Later, as the production areas gradually enter the production - cut season, its inventory will gradually decrease, but the speed is expected to be slow. Indonesia's inventory remains at a relatively low level, and the origin quotations are stable with a slight increase. Currently, the inventory of soybean oil has reached an inflection point and is gradually decreasing, but the market lacks driving forces, and its price mainly fluctuates following the overall trend of oils and fats. In the short term, due to insufficient domestic rapeseed supply and limited rapeseed oil imports, domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline, which still provides some support for rapeseed oil prices. [4][25] - Overall, short - term oils and fats lack continuous positive driving forces and are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. [27] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market 3.1.1 Malaysia's Palm Oil - Estimated institutions predict that Malaysia's palm oil production in November will decrease by 3% month - on - month to 1.98 million tons, exports will sharply decrease by 15% to 1.44 million tons, and inventory will accumulate to around 2.7 million tons, reaching a high level in the same period of history. Attention should be paid to next week's MPOB report. [9] 3.1.2 Indonesia's Palm Oil - Indonesian Bureau of Statistics data shows that the export of Indonesian palm oil in October was 1.91 million tons, and from January to October, the export volume was 19.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.83%. ITS data shows that the export volume in October was around 2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28%, but the overall data from ITS shows a decreasing trend. From January to October, the export volume was 20.35 million tons, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. In terms of different countries, the export volume to Africa increased by about 30%. [9] 3.1.3 India's Edible Oil Market - Traders expect India's edible oil imports in November to decline by 11.5% month - on - month to 1.18 million tons, reaching a seven - month low. Among them, palm oil imports slightly increased by 4.6% month - on - month to 630,000 tons, soybean oil imports may decrease by 12% to 400,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 44% to 145,000 tons. The market expects that India's edible oil imports in the 25/26 season will continue to increase to over 17 million tons. Among them, soybean oil imports may decrease year - on - year but remain at a relatively high level, while palm oil imports will increase from 7.5 million to 9.3 million tons, showing a large increase. There are rumors that India has cancelled about 70,000 tons of soybean oil orders originally scheduled for delivery from December to January. Currently, the international price difference between soybean oil and palm oil continues to widen, and the cost - effectiveness of palm oil is gradually emerging, which is conducive to an increase in palm oil procurement to some extent. [12] 3.2 Domestic Market 3.2.1 Domestic Palm Oil - As of November 28, 2025 (week 48), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 653,500 tons, a decrease of 13,600 tons or 2.04% compared with last week. Recently, palm oil inventory is at a neutral level in the same period of history. The origin quotations are relatively stable, and the inversion of import profits has narrowed to around - 200. There are rumors of two ship purchases this week. The basis is stable with a slight decline. In the short term, oils and fats lack continuous positive driving forces. Palm oil is in a long - short game between the positive factor of production cuts caused by flood impacts and the suppression of relatively high inventory. Overall, palm oil is still in a range - bound bottom - grinding stage in the short term, and one can consider buying on dips and conducting high - selling and low - buying range operations. [15] 3.2.2 Domestic Soybean Oil - As of November 28, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.1788 million tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons or 0.09% compared with last week. Currently, soybean oil inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, but the inventory inflection point has been reached, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. Domestic demand is average, and trading has become dull. Traders mainly execute contracts. Later, as the arrival of soybeans gradually decreases and soybean crushing volume declines from a high level, soybean oil inventory may slightly decrease, but overall inventory is still sufficient. In the short term, domestic soybean oil supply is abundant, and the price increase is relatively weak, lacking obvious driving forces. It is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. One can try to go long with a light position after the price stabilizes following a pullback. Attention should be paid to next week's USDA report. [20] 3.2.3 Domestic Rapeseed Oil - As of November 28, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 368,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons compared with last week. It is still at a high level in the same period of history, but the inventory is continuously decreasing marginally. The FOB quotation of European rapeseed oil remains stable at around $1,100, and the inversion of import profits for European rapeseed oil has widened to around - 1,000. There are rumors of rapeseed oil imports this week. The basis of rapeseed oil remains at a high level, and the quotations in Sichuan and Chongqing regions are relatively high, but the downstream acceptance is general. It is expected that the inventory - decreasing trend in coastal areas will continue. In the short term, the overall increase of oils and fats is weak. Currently, the fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much. Due to insufficient rapeseed supply, high import costs, and the continuous marginal decrease of rapeseed oil inventory, there is still some support for rapeseed oil prices. Without a full - scale relaxation of rapeseed procurement, rapeseed oil may maintain range - bound oscillations. One can consider buying on dips at the lower limit of the range for OI03 or 05 contracts and conducting high - selling and low - buying range operations. [23] 3.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral strategy: Short - term oils and fats lack continuous positive driving forces and are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. One can consider high - selling and low - buying range operations. - Arbitrage strategy: Wait and see. - Option strategy: Wait and see. [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - MPOB's December palm oil supply - demand data and USDA's monthly report are neutral to bullish, and the oil market may experience a weak rebound but will likely remain volatile in the short term [4][19]. - Due to low inventories in Malaysia, Indonesia, and China, as well as import profit inversion in China, palm oil may be supported; domestic soybean oil inventories are neutral and may be prone to decline; domestic rapeseed oil supply remains abundant [4][11][14][17]. Summary by Directory International Market - Malaysian Palm Oil - In December, Malaysian palm oil stocks decreased to 1709000 tons, a 6.91% month - on - month reduction. Production dropped 8.3% to 1487000 tons, exports declined about 10% to 1340000 tons, and consumption increased significantly to 310000 tons. The overall report impact was neutral [7]. - ITS predicted that Malaysian palm oil exports in the first 10 days of January decreased 21.4% month - on - month. Future rainfall in the producing areas is normal, and short - term supply tightness may continue, with stocks likely to keep decreasing [7]. - Indonesia's B40 will be fully implemented in February, with a transition period to consume B35 inventory and adjust equipment. Restrictions on POME exports may increase CPO usage [7]. International Market - US Soybeans - USDA lowered the new - crop soybean yield per acre in the US to 50.7 bushels, with production dropping to 4.366 billion bushels. The inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased from 10.81% to 8.74%, tightening supply expectations. South American soybean production is still expected to be high [8]. - The US proposed 45Z, which may affect UCO imports [8]. Domestic Palm Oil - As of January 3, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 501700 tons, a 5.05% decrease from the previous week. The inventory is at a relatively low level historically. The import profit inversion has widened, and the basis is stable [11]. Domestic Soybean Oil - As of January 3, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 956500 tons, a 1.01% decrease from the previous week. The basis has declined slightly. The oil mill's soybean crushing volume and开机率 decreased. Spot market trading has become lighter, and inventory is likely to decline [14]. Domestic Rapeseed Oil - Last week, the coastal rapeseed crushing volume was 122500 tons, with a开机率 of 32.65%. As of January 3, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory was 484000 tons, an increase of 13000 tons from the previous week. Supply is abundant, the basis is stable at a low level, and trading is light [17]. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: The oil market is expected to remain volatile with a possible weak rebound. Control risks [21]. - Arbitrage strategy: Consider going long on P3 - 5 and P5 - 9 spreads at low levels [21]. - Option strategy: Stay on the sidelines [21].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest information on the supply and demand of major oilseeds and oils in the 2025/26 period, including data on soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil, as well as the expected trend of U.S. soybean crushing volume and inventory [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 2025/26 Annual U.S. Soybean Information - The estimated production for the 2025/26 U.S. soybean season is 4.253 billion bushels, down from the September estimate of 4.301 billion bushels - The estimated planting area is 81.1 million acres, the same as the September estimate - The estimated harvested area is 80.3 million acres, consistent with the September estimate - The estimated yield per acre is 53 bushels, down from the September estimate of 53.5 bushels - The estimated export volume is 1.635 billion bushels, down from the September estimate of 1.685 billion bushels - The estimated ending stocks are 290 million bushels, down from the September estimate of 300 million bushels [1] 2025/26 Annual Global Soybean Information - Brazil's estimated soybean production is 175 million tons, the same as the September estimate, and the estimated export volume is 112.5 million tons, up from the September estimate of 112 million tons - Argentina's estimated soybean production is 48.5 million tons, the same as the September estimate, and the estimated export volume is 8.25 million tons, up from the September estimate of 6 million tons - China's estimated soybean imports are 112 million tons, the same as the September estimate - Global estimated soybean production is 421.75 million tons, down from the September estimate of 425.87 million tons, and the estimated ending stocks are 121.99 million tons, down from the September estimate of 123.99 million tons [1] U.S. October Soybean Crushing Volume - The estimated U.S. soybean crushing volume in October is 209.522 million bushels, an increase of 5.9% from September's 197.863 million bushels and 4.8% from October 2024's 199.943 million bushels, setting a new record high [1] U.S. October Soybean Oil Inventory - The estimated U.S. soybean oil inventory in October is 1.257 billion pounds, an increase of 1.1% from the end - of - September inventory of 1.243 billion pounds and 17.0% from October 2024's 1.074 billion pounds [1] 2025/26 Annual Global Rapeseed Information - Global estimated rapeseed production is 92.273 million tons, an increase of 6.274 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending stocks are 11.336 million tons, an increase of 1.504 million tons year - on - year - Global estimated rapeseed oil production is 35.009 million tons, an increase of 0.873 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending stocks are 3.19 million tons, a decrease of 0.016 million tons year - on - year - Global estimated rapeseed meal production is 50.005 million tons, an increase of 0.949 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending stocks are 1.541 million tons, an increase of 0.153 million tons year - on - year - Canada's estimated rapeseed export volume is 6.7 million tons, a decrease of 2.631 million tons year - on - year; the estimated rapeseed oil export volume is 3.375 million tons, an increase of 0.06 million tons year - on - year; the estimated rapeseed meal export volume is 5.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.299 million tons year - on - year [1] Malaysia Palm Oil Export - Malaysia's palm oil product export volume from November 1 - 15 is 728,995 tons, a decrease of 15.5% compared to the same period last month [1] Indonesia Palm Oil Production - Indonesia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to increase by 3 - 4%, lower than this year's estimated growth rate of 4 - 7%, and the 2025 palm oil export is expected to increase by 6 - 7% [1] Spot Prices - The report provides spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from November 10 - 14, 2025 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After a significant decline, the oil market has stabilized and is experiencing a technical rebound. However, in the short term, there is still a lack of obvious drivers, and the expected increase is limited [25][27]. - It is expected that after the Malaysian palm oil inventory accumulates in October, it will gradually start to decline slightly, but the inventory will still remain at a moderately high level. The production forecast of Indonesian palm oil has been raised, and the inventory is expected to remain low, but the fundamentals have weakened marginally compared to before. The domestic palm oil inventory has been continuously accumulating, and the supply may be relatively loose. Currently, there is no prominent core contradiction in soybean oil, and its price fluctuates more in line with the overall trend of the oil market, with limited upward momentum but greater resilience. In the short term, the domestic rapeseed supply is insufficient, and the import volume of rapeseed oil is also relatively limited. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline, but there are rumors of Australian rapeseed arrivals, which alleviates the expectation of a tight rapeseed supply [4][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 International Market - Malaysian Palm Oil - Estimated institutions predict that the Malaysian palm oil production will increase by 6% to 1.95 million tons in October, exports will increase to 1.48 million tons, and the inventory will accumulate to 2.44 million tons. However, MPOA's latest forecast shows a 12% increase to 2.07 million tons, and UOB also expects an increase of 8 - 12%. If these production forecasts are accurate, the inventory in October may increase to over 2.5 million tons. Attention should be paid to the MPOB report next Monday [5][7]. - SPPOMA predicts a 6.8% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production in the first 5 days of November. The rainfall forecast indicates that most producing areas will be dry in the next week, with more rainfall in parts of southern Malaysia. The drought will ease in the next two weeks, and southern Malaysia will still have relatively high rainfall [7]. - Some reports predict that the Malaysian palm oil production in the 2025/26 season may be 19.2 million tons, while this year's production is 19.38 million tons. Currently, the market expects the production in the new season to be flat or slightly lower year - on - year [7]. 3.1.2 International Market - Indonesian Palm Oil - Recently, the prices of Indonesian fruit bunches and CPO tender prices have been fluctuating weakly, currently lower than last year but still at a relatively high level in the same historical period. This year's production in Indonesia has recovered beyond market expectations, and Gapki has recently raised this year's production forecast to 56 - 57 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8 - 10%. Some reports predict that the palm oil production in Indonesia in the 2025/26 season will be 51 million tons, 4% higher than the previous forecast but still lower than last year. The production forecast for the 2024/25 season has been raised to 53 million tons, reflecting better - than - expected production in July and August. Overall, the market has different forecasts for the production of Indonesian palm oil in the new year [10]. - The Indonesian Statistics Bureau shows that the exports of palm oil and refined palm oil from January to September this year were 17.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.62% [10]. 3.1.3 International Market - Indian Palm Oil and Edible Oil - Due to increased domestic inventory, weak demand in the food industry, and a narrowing price difference with other oilseeds, India's palm oil imports in October dropped to a five - year low of 750,000 tons. The main reason for the decrease in imports is the sufficient inventory in Indian ports and warehouses, currently holding over 1.2 million tons of edible oil. In addition, the relatively low prices of soybean oil and sunflower oil have prompted refineries to change their preferences [13]. - Traders said that India's total edible oil imports in the 2024/25 season increased slightly by 0.3% year - on - year to 16 million tons. Among them, palm oil imports decreased by 16% year - on - year to 7.56 million tons, the lowest level in five years; soybean oil imports increased by 61.6% year - on - year to a record 5.56 million tons; and sunflower oil imports decreased by 17.7% year - on - year to 2.88 million tons, the lowest level in three years. This week, there were rumors that India had purchased over 100,000 tons of palm oil and some soybean oil, with the shipping dates mainly concentrated in December and later [13]. 3.1.4 Domestic Palm Oil - As of October 31, 2025 (week 44), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 592,800 tons, a decrease of 14,300 tons from the previous week, a decline of 2.36%. Recently, the palm oil inventory has decreased slightly and is at a neutral level in the same historical period. The origin quotes are stable, and the import profit inversion has narrowed, currently around - 300. It is rumored that three ships were purchased this week, and it is expected that the palm oil purchases in October and November will exceed 200,000 tons. The basis is stable. Attention should be paid to future domestic purchases and arrivals [16]. 3.1.5 Domestic Soybean Oil - As of October 31, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2158 million tons, a decrease of 34,500 tons from the previous week, a decline of 2.76%. Currently, the soybean oil inventory is at a relatively high level in the same historical period, but the inventory inflection point may have been reached, and the basis is strengthening steadily. This week, the total spot trading volume of soybean oil was 81,000 tons, an increase from the previous week, but the overall trading volume is still weak [20]. - China has lowered the import tariff on US soybeans to 13%, but it is still difficult for commercial purchases. However, it is rumored that domestic purchases of US soybeans have begun. Attention should be paid to the purchase rhythm of US soybeans. In the short term, the domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, the price increase is weak, and there is a lack of obvious drivers. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend [20]. 3.1.6 Domestic Rapeseed Oil - As of October 31, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 514,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from the previous week. It is still at a high level in the same historical period, but the inventory is continuously decreasing marginally. Currently, the rapeseed inventory has reached the bottom, and the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills this week was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0%. It is rumored that Australian rapeseed will arrive at the end of the year, which is the first export of Australian rapeseed to China in five years. The FOB quote of European rapeseed oil has remained stable at around $1,100, and the import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil has widened to around - 1,100. The market still has a sentiment of holding back sales at high prices, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis is strengthening steadily. It is expected that the coastal inventory decline trend will continue [23]. 3.1.7 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: After a significant decline, the oil market has stabilized and is experiencing a technical rebound. However, in the short term, there is still a lack of obvious drivers, and the expected increase is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [27]. - Arbitrage strategy: Long OI 1 - 5 spread and short P1 - 5 spread [27]. - Option strategy: Wait and see [27]. 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides a large amount of data on the production, export, inventory, consumption, and price of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in Malaysia, Indonesia, India, and the domestic market, as well as data on the import, consumption, and basis of various oils in the domestic market [31][38][43]. These data are presented in the form of tables and charts, including monthly and weekly data, which can be used to track the market trends of the oil industry.

Core Insights - The domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils showed significant gains on November 6, with the main soybean futures rising nearly 2% [1] - The main contracts for various oilseed products experienced mixed performance, with some increasing while others, like peanuts, saw a slight decline [1] Price Movements - Soybean oil futures opened at 8138.00 and closed at 8120.00, while palm oil opened at 8582.00 and closed at 8618.00 [2] - The main contracts for canola meal and soybean meal also showed upward trends, with canola meal rising to 2547.00 and soybean meal to 3073.00 [1][2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of November 5, the number of warehouse receipts for canola oil decreased by 702 to 8738, while palm oil receipts increased by 650 to 650 [3] - Soybean meal receipts decreased by 210 to 42122, and soybean oil receipts decreased by 200 to 27444 [3] Basis and Spot Prices - The basis for canola oil was reported at 302, with a basis rate of 3.10%, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - Other products like soybean and palm oil also showed positive basis values, reflecting a similar trend in the market [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report presents the latest weekly data on the breeding industry chain, including the latest values, previous values, and weekly changes of various indicators for both soybean meal and oils, aiming to provide a data - based reference for the market situation of these products. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 Soybean Meal Data - The 43% protein soybean meal's aggregated average price is 3067.00 yuan/ton, up 2.61% week - on - week [2]. - The soybean meal's futures - spot price difference is 41.00 yuan/ton, down 28.07% week - on - week [2]. - The output of 111 sample soybean meal enterprises is 154.68 million tons, down 4.42% week - on - week [2]. - The daily trading volume of soybean meal is 104300.00 tons, up 8.42% week - on - week [2]. - The apparent consumption of 111 sample soybean meal enterprises is 146.46 million tons, down 4.36% week - on - week [2]. - The inventory of 111 sample soybean meal enterprises is 102.25 million tons, up 8.74% week - on - week [2]. - The basis of the soybean meal's spot main contract is 101.29 yuan/ton, down 19.25% week - on - week [2]. 3.2 Oil Data - Palm oil inventory in China is 59.28 million tons, down 2.36% week - on - week [5]. - Rapeseed oil inventory in China is 51.60 million tons, down 3.73% week - on - week [5]. - Soybean oil inventory in China is 121.58 million tons, down 2.76% week - on - week [5]. - The futures - spot price difference of palm oil in China is - 1.00 yuan/ton, up 100.00% week - on - week [5]. - The futures - spot price difference of rapeseed oil in China is 488.00 yuan/ton, up 3.83% week - on - week [5]. - The futures - spot price difference of soybean oil and palm oil in China is - 318.00 yuan/ton, down 48.71% week - on - week [5]. - The basis of the palm oil's spot main contract is - 42.00 yuan/ton, down 167.74% week - on - week [5]. - The basis of the rapeseed oil's spot main contract is 356.50 yuan/ton, up 20.54% week - on - week [5]. - The basis of the soybean oil's spot main contract is 250.74 yuan/ton, down 17.69% week - on - week [5].